our insights. your story....our insights. your story. © 2019 rp data pty ltd t/as corelogic asia...

Our Insights.

Your Story.

Property market chart pack

July 2019

Our Insights. Your Story. © 2019 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. 2

Residential Real Estate Underpins Australia’s Wealth

As at the end of June 2019

Residential Real Estate

$6.1 Trillion

Australian Superannuation

$2.8 Trillion

Australian Listed Stocks

$2.0 Trillion

Commercial Real Estate

$988 Billion

10.3 millionNumber of dwellings

$1.83 trillionOutstanding mortgage

debt

412,154Total sales

p.a.

$258.3 billionGross value of

sales p.a.

49.3%Household

wealth held in

housing

Source: CoreLogic, APRA, RBA, ASX

© 2019 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. Our Insights. Your Story.

-1.1%-0.6%

-1.4%-0.4%

-2.1%-1.1%

-3.6%-0.7%

-1.1%-1.0%

-0.6%0.6%

-2.9%1.3%

0.0%

-1.1%-0.9%

-1.0%

-5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra

Regional NSWRegional VicRegional QldRegional SA

Regional WARegional TasRegional NT

Combined capitalsCombined regionals

National

Over the June 2019 quarter the rate of value decline has slowed however, all capital cities have recorded value falls

3

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly change in dwelling values Quarterly change in dwelling values to June-19

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Jun-91 Jun-98 Jun-05 Jun-12 Jun-19

Combined capitals Combined regionals


The annual rate of decline in combined capital city values has started to ease

4

Source: CoreLogic

Annual change in dwelling values Annual change in dwelling values to Jun-19

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Jun-84 Jun-91 Jun-98 Jun-05 Jun-12 Jun-19

Combined capitals Combined regionals

-9.9%-9.2%

-2.6%-0.3%

-9.1%2.9%

-9.3%1.4%

-4.9%-0.3%

-1.9%0.2%

-10.3%5.6%

0.6%

-8.0%-3.1%

-6.9%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra




National


The annual change in dwelling values highlights broad-based weakening in housing market conditions with early signs of an improvement in Sydney and Melbourne

5

Source: CoreLogic

-9.9%-9.2%

-2.6%

-0.3%

-9.1%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Annual change in dwelling values

Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth

2.9%

-9.3%

1.4%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Annual change in dwelling values

Hobart Darwin Canberra


-0.9%

-1.9%

-2.7%

-3.8%

-4.5%

-5.6%

-6.4%

-7.1%

-8.6%

-10.5%

-3.6%

-3.9%

-4.8%

-5.2%

-6.3%

-6.9%

-7.4%

-8.4%

-9.7%

-10.8%

-0.8%

0.0%

-0.2%

-0.4%

-1.0%

-1.8%

-2.8%

-3.8%

-4.8%

-6.1%

-15% -10% -5% 0%

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

10th

Regional markets Combined capital cities National

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th

Quarterly change Annual change

Premium dwelling values have recorded the largest annual falls however, their rate of decline has slowed markedly over the quarter

6

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values by deciles,

National as at Jun 2019

Annual change in dwelling values by decile,

Jun-19


Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Sydney

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%



Sydney dwelling values have fallen by -1.1% over the three months to June 2019 and they

are -9.9% lower over the past year. Sydney dwelling values are now -14.9% lower than their July 2017 peak.

7

Source: CoreLogic


-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%



Dwelling values in Melbourne have fallen by -0.6% over the 3 months to June 2019 and they are -9.2% lower over

the past year. Values in Melbourne are currently-10.9% lower than their November 2017 peak.

8

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Melbourne


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


Quarterly change Annual change Brisbane home values fell -1.4% over the three months to June 2019 and they were -2.6% lower

than a year ago. Brisbane dwelling values have now fallen by -2.9% since their peak in April 2018.

9

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Brisbane


-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Quarterly change Annual change Dwelling values in

Adelaide fell by -0.4% over the three months to June 2019 and they are -0.3%lower over the past year. Adelaide dwelling values peaked in December 2018 and have since fallen by

-1.0%.

10

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Adelaide


-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%


Quarterly change Annual change Perth dwelling

values fell by -2.1%over the three months to June 2019 and they are -9.1%lower over the past year. Dwelling values in Perth are now -19.8% lower than they were at their peak in June

2014.

11

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Perth


-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%



Dwelling values in Hobart fell -1.1% over the 3 months to June 2019 however, they are 2.9% higher over the past year. Hobart dwelling values have now fallen by -1.1% since their peak in March

2019.

12

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Hobart


-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Jun-01 Jun-04 Jun-07 Jun-10 Jun-13 Jun-16 Jun-19


Darwin dwelling values fell by -3.6% over the three months to June 2019 and they are -9.3% lower over the past year. Dwelling values in Darwin are currently -30.1% lower than their

historic peak.

13

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Darwin


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%



Dwelling values in Canberra fell -0.7% over the three months to June 2019 however, they are 1.4% higher over the past year. Dwelling values have now fallen by -1.1% from their peak in April

2019.

14

Source: CoreLogic

Quarterly and annual change in dwelling values - Canberra


20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

Jun 99 Jun 01 Jun 03 Jun 05 Jun 07 Jun 09 Jun 11 Jun 13 Jun 15 Jun 17 Jun 19

Monthly sales with six month moving average, National

-21.9%-27.0%

-13.4%-4.1%

-7.3%-11.4%

-9.2%-8.6%

-18.8%-17.9%

-13.8%-2.1%

-0.1%-12.7%

-5.8%

-18.7%-15.6%

-17.5%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra




National

Year on year change in settled sales

15

Transaction numbers remain lower than a year ago however, over recent months it appears market activity has steadied

Source: CoreLogic

Note the sales volumes are modelled based on historic levels of revision however, they are still subject to revision. Furthermore, sales volumes do not

account for off-the-plan purchases which upon completion are counted as sales at their contract date.

Decade average


-2.7%1.4%1.5%1.6%

2.5%4.7%

-4.7%0.8%

1.6%4.2%

1.6%0.2%0.4%

4.3%-0.1%

-0.1%1.9%

0.4%

-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra




National

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%


16

Annual rental growth has steadied at record low growth, largely due to the declines in Sydney moderating

Source: CoreLogic

Annual change in dwelling rents, National Annual change in dwelling rents to Jun-19


3.5%

3.7%

3.9%

4.1%

4.3%

4.5%

4.7%

4.9%

5.1%


17

With rental growth typically stronger than value growth, gross

rental yields continue to rise from their recent historic lows

Source: CoreLogic

Gross rental yields, National Gross rental yields as at Jun-19

3.5%

3.7%

4.6%

4.5%

4.3%

5.2%

6.0%

4.8%

4.7%

4.7%

5.5%

5.7%

5.9%

5.3%

7.0%

3.9%

5.1%

4.1%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Sydney

Melbourne

Brisbane

Adelaide

Perth

Hobart

Darwin

Canberra

Regional NSW

Regional Vic

Regional Qld

Regional SA

Regional WA

Regional Tas

Regional NT

Combined capitals

Combined regionals

National

© 2019 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. Our Insights. Your Story. 18

Despite some recent reductions, properties are taking longer

to sell than they have over recent years

Source: CoreLogic

Median days on market Median days on market Jun-18 vs Jun-19

5446

6046

6230

6450

7055

68101

806161

5168

57

3729374254126641

51405192724169

355040

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra



Combined capital citiesCombined regionals

National

Jun-19

Jun-18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


Combined capitals

Combined regionals


-6.4%-6.4%

-4.8%-5.5%

-6.9%-3.7%

-7.6%-3.1%

-5.5%-5.1%

-5.7%-6.1%

-8.8%-4.5%-4.8%

-6.0%-5.6%

-5.8%

-5.7%-4.2%-4.2%-4.8%-6.3%-3.4%-7.3%-2.0%

-4.2%-3.8%-5.4%-5.7%-8.1%-4.5%-3.6%

-4.8%-4.6%-4.8%

-12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%

SydneyMelbourne

BrisbaneAdelaide

PerthHobartDarwin

Canberra



Combined capital citiesCombined regionals

National

Jun-19

Jun-18

19

Tougher selling conditions with fewer buyers have meant

legitimate sellers have had to offer larger price reductions

Source: CoreLogic

Median vendor discount Median vendor discount Jun-18 vs Jun-19

-8%

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%


Combined capitals

Combined regionals


While fewer newly listed properties are coming up for sale currently, total listings generally remain slightly higher than they were a year ago and elevated compared to recent years

Source: CoreLogic

Number of new and total properties advertised for sale, 28 days to 30 June 2019

Capital cityNo of new

listings

12 mth

change (%)

No of total

listings

12 mth

change (%)

Sydney 4,776 -25.5% 26,757 -0.2%

Melbourne 5,455 -24.6% 33,903 9.9%

Brisbane 3,516 -9.2% 21,167 7.1%

Adelaide 1,826 3.3% 8,808 7.8%

Perth 2,928 -17.2% 20,612 -3.2%

Hobart 363 9.7% 1,272 24.3%

Darwin 149 4.9% 1,436 2.1%

Canberra 471 -18.1% 2,319 16.5%

Combined capitals 19,484 -18.4% 116,274 4.5%

Capital cityNo of new

listings

12 mth

change (%)

No of total

listings

12 mth

change (%)

Sydney 3,866 -29.5% 24,253 -6.4%

Melbourne 4,392 -31.9% 31,101 5.8%

Brisbane 3,275 -12.4% 20,885 6.1%

Adelaide 1,585 -6.0% 8,441 9.0%

Perth 2,475 -19.0% 19,694 -4.0%

Hobart 301 -4.1% 1,182 27.4%

Darwin 150 -1.3% 1,442 2.1%

Canberra 424 -13.5% 2,155 21.3%

Combined capitals 16,468 -22.9% 109,154 1.7%

StateNo of new

listings

12 mth

change (%)

No of total

listings

12 mth

change (%)

NSW 7,160 -25.0% 48,674 1.2%

Vic 6,563 -27.6% 47,470 4.1%

Qld 7,602 -12.2% 62,949 1.7%

SA 2,187 -7.1% 17,063 3.1%

WA 3,443 -17.0% 32,183 -4.2%

Tas 777 -2.5% 4,624 0.0%

NT 198 -3.4% 2,072 3.8%

ACT 432 -14.3% 2,247 21.1%

National 28,362 -19.6% 217,282 1.4%


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%


Nu

mb

er

of

au

cti

on

s

Cle

ara

nc

e r

ate

Weekly clearance rate, combined capital cities

21

Auction clearance rates have been stronger relative to late 2018 and have increased further since the federal election although auction volumes remain relatively low

Source: CoreLogic


0

50,000

100,000

150,000

Dec-83 Dec-88 Dec-93 Dec-98 Dec-03 Dec-08 Dec-13 Dec-18

1.6%2.2%

1.8%0.8%0.9%

1.2%-0.4%

1.8%1.6%

-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%

NSWVIC

QLDSA

WATASNT

ACTAUST

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Dec-88 Dec-98 Dec-08 Dec-1820,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Dec-88 Dec-98 Dec-08 Dec-18

22

Housing demand: migration to Australia remains high, however the quarterly change in population growth has

dipped a little

Source: CoreLogic, ABS

Quarterly change in national population

Net overseas migration Natural increase Annual change in population

Rolling 4 qtr average

© 2019 RP Data Pty Ltd t/as CoreLogic Asia Pacific. All rights reserved. Confidential. Our Insights. Your Story.23

Both house and unit approvals continue to trend lower, with larger falls in approved unit supply


Number of dwellings approved for construction, National

Rolling 6 mth average

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

May-89 May-94 May-99 May-04 May-09 May-14 May-19

Houses Units


45.6%

14.9%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-17 Mar-19

% of mortgages originated on interest-only terms

37.6%

21.8%

15%

25%

35%

45%

Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-17 Mar-19

% of mortgages settled with an LVR 80%+

5.3%

0.5%0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%

10.0%12.5%15.0%

May-09 May-11 May-13 May-15 May-17 May-19

Annual change in credit, owner occupier v investor

Owner occupier housing Investment housing

24

Source: CoreLogic, APRA, RBA

Housing credit is expanding at an historically slow pace, due in large to much tighter credit conditions


$15.3

$12.6

$9.4

$4.4

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

Apr-09 Apr-11 Apr-13 Apr-15 Apr-17 Apr-19

$ b

illio

n

Monthly value of new housing finance commitments, National

Owner occupier (ex refi)

Investor (ex refi) 26.0%25%

27%

29%

31%

33%

35%

37%

39%

41%

43%

45%

Apr-09 Apr-11 Apr-13 Apr-15 Apr-17 Apr-19

New investor lending share of total new lending (ex refinances)

The slowdown in credit growth is mostly due to a

sharp reduction in investment lending;

down 26% over the past year and almost 53%

lower relative to the 2015 peak.

More recently, owner occupier lending has

dived sharply, down 14% over the past 12 months.

25



54%

39%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

Apr

-03

Ap

r-0

7

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

9NSW

42%

34%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Apr

-03

Apr

-07

Ap

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

9

Vic37%

30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Apr

-03

Apr

-07

Apr

-11

Ap

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

9

Qld

39%

30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Apr

-03

Apr

-07

Apr

-11

Apr

-15

Ap

r-1

9

SA44%

30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Apr

-03

Apr

-07

Apr

-11

Apr

-15

Apr

-19

WA

32%

23%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Apr

-03

Apr

-07

Apr

-11

Apr

-15

Apr

-19

Tas

32.2%25.3%

19.0% 20.3% 16.6%23.8%

16.3%29.2%

NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT

Investors as a % of total value of lending (excluding refinances) as at April 2019

26


Investor activity has faded over the past couple of years in each state and territory

Long run

average

Investor housing finance commitments by states as a share of total commitments (excluding refinances)


25.4%

31.1%

26.4%

22.3%

35.5%

23.9%

46.8%

20.2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

NSW

Vic

Qld

SA

WA

Tas

NT

ACT

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Apr-03 Apr-07 Apr-11 Apr-15 Apr-19

NSW Vic Qld SA Tas NT

27


First home buyers have been a key source of housing demand due to improved affordability, less competition from investors, low mortgage rates and incentives

First home buyers as a % of all owner occupier housing

finance commitments (excluding refi)

First home buyers as a % of all

owner occupier housing finance

commitments (exc refi), Apr 19


Source: CoreLogic, RBA

Following the 25 basis point cut to interest rates they sit at their lowest levels since the early 1960s

4.46

5.04

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19

Investor mortgage rate premiumOwner Occupie r Inve stor

58

ba

sis

poi

nts

55

5.00 7.00

10.38

17.00

9.62

5.76

7.79

5.154

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


Standard variable mortgage rates over time

5.15

4.46

3.92

5.73

5.04

4.12

Variable; Standard

Variable; Discounted

3-year fixed

Variable; Standard

Variable; Discounted

3-year fixed

Ow

ner

occu

pier

Inv

est

or

Avg mortgage rate by product type,June 2019 (%)


Disclaimer

29

In compiling this publication, RP Data Pty Ltd trading as CoreLogic has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. CoreLogic does not warrant its accuracy or

completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body

corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it

may have to the amount paid to CoreLogic for the supply of such information.

Queensland Data

Based on or contains data provided by the State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines) 2019. In consideration of the State permitting use of this data you acknowledge and

agree that the State gives no warranty in relation to the data (including accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or suitability) and accepts no liability (including without limitation, liability in

negligence) for any loss, damage or costs (including consequential damage) relating to any use of the data. Data must not be used for direct marketing or be used in breach of the privacy laws.

South Australian Data

This information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. The South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the

accuracy or completeness of the published information or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying data.

New South Wales Data

Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information (“LPI”). CoreLogic is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI.

Victorian Data

The State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will

constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying

upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied.

Western Australian Data

Based on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2019) trading as Landgate.

Australian Capital Territory Data

The Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be

reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO Box

1908 Canberra ACT 2601.

Tasmanian Data

This product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The

Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents:

a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; and

b) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data.

Base data from the LIST © State of Tasmania http://www.thelist.tas.gov.au


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