CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATERSHED COMMUNITIESWATERSHED COMMUNITIESMethodologies for Assessing Social Methodologies for Assessing Social

Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation (Focus on Participatory Approaches)(Focus on Participatory Approaches)

Juan M. Pulhin (AS 21)Juan M. Pulhin (AS 21)University of the Philippines Los BanosUniversity of the Philippines Los Banos

AIACC Asia-Pacific Regional WorkshopAIACC Asia-Pacific Regional Workshop25-27 March 200325-27 March 2003

Outline of PresentationOutline of Presentation

Introduction Overview of AS21 Social science methodologies for integrated

climate change assessment Challenges

…there exists a knowledge gap in

terms of methodologiesand tools for integrated assessment of climate change particularly in

watershed areas…

IntroductionIntroductionDespite the anticipated impacts of climate change on both the natural and human systems…

…less developed is the application of appropriate social science research techniques that engaged watershed communitiesin conducting integrated assessment of climate change

IntroductionIntroduction

Rationale for Stakeholder Rationale for Stakeholder Participation in the Research ProcessParticipation in the Research Process

Ideological – participation as basic human right

Part of the awareness-building/ advocacy slant of the research– generate understanding (public education)– interests and support

Facilitates identification and implementation of adaptation strategies at various levels

Integrated Assessment of ClimateChange Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability in Watershed Areas and Communities in Southeast Asia

GCM Climate Scenario

National Climate Scenario

Land use and cover Change in the Watershed Impacts on water,

forests and communities

Future Vulnerability Assessment

Future Adaptation Assessment

Climate Variability/ Extremes and Current Coping Mechanisms

Current Vulnerability Assessment

General Methodology of the study

•

Methodologies for Assessing Social Impacts, Methodologies for Assessing Social Impacts, Vulnerability and AdaptationVulnerability and Adaptation

1) Awareness generation among various stakeholders1) Awareness generation among various stakeholders

Methodologies for Assessing Social Methodologies for Assessing Social Impacts, Vulnerability and AdaptationImpacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation

2. Gathering secondary information2. Gathering secondary information

• Demographic characteristics• Socio-economic characteristics• Geographic factors• Governance structure

Tentative listing of secondary information(Table 1)

3. Field study3. Field study

a. Field reconnaissance b. Orientation workshops with various stakeholders

b. Participatory vulnerability and adaptation assessment in selected barangays (Table 2)

Methods:Methods:

• Use combination of participatory techniques and household survey• Enable researches to validate the reliability of existing secondary information using triangulation method

Figure 1: Vulnerability profile for Delanta Dawunt, Ethiopia

4. Assessment of future climate change impacts,4. Assessment of future climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. vulnerability and adaptation.

• Using the different climate change scenarios developed through MAGIC-SCENGEN

• With the aid of other models such as CLUE and VIC models

• Using the results of present vulnerability and adaptation assessment

5. Presentation of research results and validation5. Presentation of research results and validation

• To different stakeholders concerned to validate findings and for them to be able to anticipate and respond appropriately to future climate change

• Serve as a form of advocacy to generate interest and support among various sectors on climate change initiatives and strengthen the research-policy link in this area

ChallengesChallenges

Methodological/technical concernsMethodological/technical concerns– Availability of time-series data and mapsAvailability of time-series data and maps– Compatibility and reliability of available Compatibility and reliability of available

secondary socio-economic informationsecondary socio-economic information– Combining community mapping and GIS Combining community mapping and GIS

techniquestechniques– Integrating different socioeconomic variables Integrating different socioeconomic variables

into the different modelsinto the different models– Integrating the macro-micro scale and Integrating the macro-micro scale and

quantitative-qualitative analysesquantitative-qualitative analyses

ChallengesChallenges

Institutional concernsInstitutional concerns– Continuing engagement of the different Continuing engagement of the different

stakeholders at varying levels during the stakeholders at varying levels during the research processresearch process

– Capability building both of the research team Capability building both of the research team members and other stakeholdersmembers and other stakeholders

– Strengthening science-policy link to generate Strengthening science-policy link to generate interests and continuing supportinterests and continuing support

THANK YOU!!! THANK YOU!!!