outlook 2015 vkw brabant - 12 november 2014
DESCRIPTION
VKW OutlookTRANSCRIPT
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OUTLOOK 2015Leuven, November 2015
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Agenda
The economic situation in a nutshell
Can innovation stimulate productivity?
Open discussion
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ECONOMIC SITUATIONCaroline Ven
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Global stagnation?
Belgium – stuck in the middle
Outlook & risks
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Global stagnation?
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World GDP growth, in %
Global growth is underperforming
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Slowdown in emerging markets
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
20122014
2016
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
WorldAdvanced economiesEmerging market and developing economies
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Eurozone is lagging behind
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Euro areaUnited States
% G
DP
YoY
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Increasing risk 3th consecutive recession eurozone
Confidence manufacturing industry, 50= neutral
Confidence manufacturing industry, 50 = neutral
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Diverging demand patterns
Non-residential investment per capita
Index, 2005=100
Private consumptionper capita
Index, 2005=100
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Reflected on the labour market
Unemployment rate in %
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Inflation, consumer prices in % YoY
2005Q1
2005Q4
2006Q3
2007Q2
2008Q1
2008Q4
2009Q3
2010Q2
2011Q1
2011Q4
2012Q3
2013Q2
2014Q1-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Euro areaJapanUnited States
Combatting deflationary risk
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Commodity prices Effective exchange rate euro
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Monetary policy
2007 2010 2011 2012 20130
10
20
30
40
50
60
% of 2008 GDP
ECB
Federal Reserve
Bank of Japan
Central bank total assets Policy rates
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Less restrictive fiscal policy ahead
Improvement in underlying primary balance% of potential output
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Long-term interest rates
Jan-08
Aug-08
Mar-
09
Oct-09
May
-10
Dec-10Ju
l-11
Feb-12
Sep-12
Apr-13
Nov-13
Jun-14
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Belgium GermanySpain FranceItaly Netherlands
01/01/2
008
01/11/2
008
01/09/2
009
01/07/2
010
01/05/2
011
01/03/2
012
01/01/2
013
01/11/2
013
01/09/2
0140
1
2
3
4
5
6
Germany UKUS Japan
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Belgium:Stuck in the middle
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
België Nederland Duitsland Frankrijk eurozone
in %
Economic growth
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Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-0
9
Dec-09
May
-10
Oct-10
Mar-
11
Aug-11Jan
-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
Apr-13
Sep-13
Feb-14
Jul-1
4-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
producers
consumers
Confidence indicators
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Capacity utilization industry
in %
1/1/2
007
1/1/2
008
1/1/2
009
1/1/2
010
1/1/2
011
1/1/2
012
1/1/2
013
1/1/2
01469
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
1/1/
2007
1/1/
2008
1/1/
2009
1/1/
2010
1/1/
2011
1/1/
2012
1/1/
2013
1/1/
2014
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Business investment in % yoy
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Improving competitivenessWage handicap with 3 trading partners
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
Unit labour cost Productivity per employee
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7/1/2
007
3/1/2
008
11/1/2
008
7/1/2
009
3/1/2
010
11/1/2
010
7/1/2
011
3/1/2
012
11/1/2
012
7/1/2
013
3/1/2
014-40-35-30-25-20-15-10
-505
10
201420132012201120102009200820070
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16Euro area Belgium Germany France Netherlands
Unemployment rate Employment outlook
Labour market
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Disposable income, savings and consumption of households
Private consumption, % yoy in volumeReal disposable income of households % yoy
Savings rate of households (% disposable income, rhs)
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Inflation (YoY, in %)
Underlying inflation Energy products Other components Consumer prices
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Public finances
20072008200920102011201220132014-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-101
General government net balance (% GDP)
Belgium NetherlandsGermany Franceeurozone
2007200820092010201120122013201440
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Gross debt (% GDP)
Belgium NetherlandsGermany Franceeurozone
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Outlook & risks
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Global outlook
Jan-...
Jun-...
Nov-...
Apr-...
Sep-...
Feb-...
Jul-..
.
Dec-...
May
-...
Oct-...
Mar-
...
Aug-...Jan
-...
Jun-...
Nov-...
Apr-...
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
OECD leading indicator
United StatesEuro areaJapanChina
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Growth projections (OECD)
GDPVolume, % change
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Belgium
2013 2014 2015
Real GDP (yoy, %) 0,3 0,9 0,9
CPI (yoy, %) 1,2 0,6 0,9
General govt balance (% GDP) -2,6 -2,5 -2,3
Employment (yoy, %) -0,3 0,2 0,4
Unemployment rate (%) 8,4 8,5 8,3
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Major risks
Geopolitical tensions
Financial turmoil
Fiscal & monetary
stanceSocial unrest
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Themes for discussion
• Do these macroeconomic figures correspond with firm level developments? How coping with low growth levels?
• Low interest rates should stimulate investment. Is this the case?
• What additional policy measures are necessary in order to stimulate private investment?
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REFLECTIONS Patrick O, CEO Viessmann Belgium
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INNOVATION & PRODUCTIVITYGeert Janssens
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Productivity? The winning combination
Innovation Conclusions
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Productivity
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Contributions to world GDP
Source: McKinsey Global Institute
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A first conclusion…
Productivity is not everything, but it is almost everything.
A country’s ability to improve its standard of living over time, depends entirely on its ability
to raise its output per worker.
Paul Krugman, The Age of Diminishing Expectations (1994)
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Labour productivity growth
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
GDP per hour
-------- Belgium-------- Germany-------- France-------- Netherlands
Source: Oecd
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Annual hours worked per year
• V
1.200
1.600
2.000
2.400
2.800
3.200
3.600
1870 1880 1890 1900 1913 1920 1929 1938 1950 1960 1973 1980 1990 2000 2010
Belgium France Germany Netherlands U.S.
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Productivity and hours worked
1.300
1.400
1.500
1.600
1.700
1.800
1.900
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
Annu
al h
ours
wor
ked
GDP per hour worked
BE
DE NL
FR
US
Source: OECD
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Chasing ghosts
Labour productivity measures cannot distinguish between gains from more equipment per worker and gains from more efficiency or better technology use per worker
Bart van Ark, The Conference Board, University of Groningen
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Annual Total Factor Productivity growth
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
1995 2000 2005 2010
Total Factor Productivity
-------- Belgium-------- Germany-------- France-------- Netherlands
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TFP in Belgium
Growth 2003-2007 = 3.4% (arbeidsproductiviteit 2.6)
Hours worked
Labour composition
Non-ICT capital
ICT capital
TFP growth
0.5 0.2 0.7 0.4 1.5
Growth 2008-2013 = -0.1 (arbeidsproductiviteit -2.0)
Hours worked
Labour composition
Non-ICT capital
ICT capital
TFP growth
0.9 0.2 2.2 0.0 -3.4
Sourrce: The Conference Board, Total Economy Database
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Average TFP growth, 2008-2013
Source: The Conference Board
-0,2
-0,7
-0,7
-0,8
-1,2
-1,4
-1,7
-3,4
-4,0
Germany
Netherlands
Euro area
Finland
Italy
France
Spain
Belgium
Greece
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The winning combination
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Winning combination?
In a small open economy productivity gains are very much intertwinted with competitiveness…
Competitiveness is a function of • cost structure• innovative capacity• Infrastructure
Jobcreation depends on competitiveness but also on productivity
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The winning combination
Productivity
Jobcreation
Competition
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Why productivity growth creates jobs
Profit dividends, reservesjobs
Investments new products jobs
Lower prices consumptionjobs
Wages consumptionjobs
Productivity gains – where do they go to?
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Productivity and employment
Source: McKinsey Global Institute
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Evolution market shares (1)
Source: VKW Metena (Oecd-data)
119,6 119,8
113,5
109,7
109,5
108,7
110,0
106,9105,8
103,2
99,7100,0
101,7 101,4
101,2
102,4
101,7
90
100
110
120
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Index
(2007=
100)
Year
Evolution market shares - Belgium (2007=100)
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Evolution market shares (2)
98,0
100,0
102,0
104,0
106,0
108,0
110,0
112,0
114,0
116,0
118,0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
BelgiumGermanyFranceNetherlandsEU-3
• Productmix = +• Geographical mix = - - -
Source: VKW Metena (Oecd-data)
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Innovation
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Business R&D as % of Value-added
0,43
0,61
1,03
1,79
1,91
2,47
2,59
3,07
3,26
3,26
3,78
4,33
4,93
GreeceTurkey
SpainUnited Kingdom
NetherlandsBelgium
FranceSwitzerland
GermanyUnited States
SwedenFinland
Korea
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Share of R&D by foreign owned companies
Source: FOD Wetenschapsbeleid, Planbureau
Electronic apparatus 88,4
Precision instruments 62,1
Electrical machines 61,6
Chemical products 54,9
Services 50,1
Machines 32,1
Total 53,8
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Innovation scoreboard (bottom 5)
0,020,0 40,0
60,080,0
100,0120,0
140,0160,0
Wireless broadband
Networks (autonomous systems)
Patenting firms less 5y old
Trademarks
Public R&D expenditures
23,7
44,8
71,4
81,7
87,1
158,3
129,8
124,9
119,6
156,0
OECD Belgium
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The trouble with innovative Belgium?
• Restructuring and capital deepening at its limits• Cost structure
– wages– Energy– Administrative burden,…
• Lack of competition
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Cumulative price increases 1996-2011
Belgium Neighbours
Food 40,1 25,8Electricity 100,5 86,0Fuel 96,0 89,9Recreation 11,7 0,1Horeca 49,2 35,4Clothing 8,2 4,3Communication -17,9 -28,8
Total 35,2 27,9Source: Planning Bureau
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The trouble with innovative Belgium?
• Restructuring and capital deepening at its limits• Cost structure
– wages– Energy– Administrative burden,…
• Lack of competition • Low specialization in innovative sectors like ICT
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ICT and high tech sectors under performing
Computer,
electronic and
optical products
Electrical equipment
Machinery and
equipment
IT and other
information services
- 60
- 40
- 20
0
20
40
60
- 50 - 30 - 10 10 30 50 70
Hours
work
ed g
row
th
Value added growth
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Growth contributions from digitalisation
2001-2007 2008-2011
Technology effect through ICT-producing sector 0.28 0.16
Investment effect from ICT using industries 0.44 0.21
Network effects on q from ICT use in non ICT 0.25 -0.24
Total effects from ICT prod, investment and use 0.97 0.14
Source: Corrado and Jaeger, van Ark, The Conference Board
Contribution to average annual gdp growth for eight major EU economies: Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain
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The trouble with innovative Belgium?
• Restructuring and capital deepening at its limits• Cost structure
– wages– Energy– Administrative burden,…
• Lack of competition • Low specialization in innovative sectors like ICT• Infrastructure: transport and education
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Recommendations
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More innovative culture?
• Cost structure• Competition policy (services, semi-public
sector)• Administrative efficiency• Fiscal stability • Attractiveness scientific and technical jobs• Infrastructure• Getting prepared for a new wave
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Rijscholen
Taxi-sector
Architectuur
Stadsplanning
Auto-industrie
Transport & logistiek
Verzekeringen
Werkcultuur
…?
Alcohol consumptie
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Themes for discussion
• Do you still see in your company opportunities for growth? Where and how? Proces innovation? New products? New markets?
• How can you stimulate a culture of creativity and innovation in your company?
• Which things have to change in order to get such a culture?
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REFLECTIONS
Laurent Boes, Disruptive Technologies Evangelist
IBM Benelux
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Open discussion & networking!
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Thanks to our sponsors
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Hope seeing you again at VKW
Save the date :
February 5th 2015
VKW talk
‘Toekomstgericht Ondernemen’
VKW Brabant