outlook for china glyphosate industry 2009 2014 - edition 6

CCM Data & Primary Intelligence

Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Email: [email protected] Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968

Outlook for China Glyphosate Industry 2009-2014

The Sixth Edition

Researched & Prepared by:

Guangzhou CCM Information Science and Technology Co., Ltd

Guangzhou, P. R. China

September 2009

Copyright by Guangzhou CCM Information Science and Technology Co., Ltd (P. R. China) Any publication, distribution or copying of the content in this report is prohibited. Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968 Email: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]



Description:

China in 2009 has posted new record of glyphosate technical capacity of 655,400t/a and 190,000t/a for PMIDA, an eye-catching climb over that in 2008, respectively 485,400t/a and 172,200t/a. Capacity expansion has further strengthened China’s dominating position in global technical supply, accounting for around 70% of the world total at present. However, China now remains at the low end of the global glyphosate value chain, as a technical supplier, due to its ineffective formulation production technology, weak sales channel and unaccessible registration in international market. Things might change in the future, and China’s influence and importance in global glyphosate formulation market is expected to increase in the near future. Climbing export volume of glyphosate formulation from China might be a clear signal of this trend----- H1 2009 witnessed 20,000 tonnes increased export volume of Chinese glyphosate formulation, compared with the same period of last year, a 20% increase. Among the increased volume, about 97% is exported to U.S., the base of Monsanto. Given China’s glyphosate changing trend in 2008-2009, both domestic and overseas glyphosate enterprises should pay close attention to existing and potential competitors in China, especially their technology improvement, production cost and market activities, etc., in order to better seize business opportunities. This report, based on CCM’s 6-year research experiences in Chinese glyphosate industry and its upstream sectors, dives deep into China’s glyphosate industry to figure out the industry’s key characteristics, latest dynamics and future trends, in terms of production, R&D, pricing, export situation, trade flow, consumption/demand, overseas market, key players’ competitiveness and production cost, international collaboration etc. From a global perspective, this sixth edition will provide you with CCM’s primary intelligence. Penetrating into China’s changing glyphosate market, this report not only provides more accurate data, but also strengthens the following aspects: - Technology innovation and development in mother liquid treatment - Technology improvement on formulation production - Adjuvant development situation - Analysis on flow research and value chain - New price model for technical - Production cost changes - Consumption investigation - Glyphosate price fluctuation in past two years and its potential trend Through explorations in above key aspects, key findings turn out as follows: - Most glyphosate technical manufacturers are decreasing investment except those with advanced technology or long-term cooperation with MNCs



- Major export destinations have remained as South America, North America and Asia - Manufacturers are paying more attention to formulation market - International cooperation is becoming a trend, such as Nantong Jiangshan with Syngenta - Air oxidation method is not as good as expected - Technology update and increased investment in wastewater treatment has become a hotspot and an urgent problem with China’s looming ban on production of formulation with AI content lower than 30%. - Industry integration especially capacity concentration is seeing a pressing trend. What can you benefit from this report? As China’s glyphosate has been playing a crucial role in global market and its position will last and even enhance in the future, investment opportunities do exist in Chinese market. With CCM’s insights in this industry, this report will help senior executives and decision makers responsible for formulating business development strategy or seeking competitor intelligence, to better grasp investment opportunities. Furthermore, the report, covering China’s glyphosate’s whole value chain, will provide insights to most key players along this chain, such as suppliers, distributors, traders of glyphosate raw materials, its intermediates, technical and formulation, as well as technology researchers, suppliers, etc. namely those involved in glyphosate industry or its upstream and downstream industries, thus bringing unexpected benefits to these players.

Main content:

No. Content Page

Executive summary 1

Introduction and methodology 5

I Pesticide industry in China 9

I-1.1 Pesticide history in China 9

I-1.2 Pesticide supply in China 10

I-1.3 Pesticide demand in China 14

I-1.4 Governmental policies on agriculture & pesticide industry 16

II Factors influencing China’s glyphosate industry 19

II-1 Economic environment 20

II-2 Government policy 31

II-3 Crop planting situation in the world 38

II-4 Crop planting situation in China 41

II-5 Entry barriers of glyphosate industry 44

III Glyphosate upstream industry 49

III-1 Introduction to key raw materials & intermediates of glyphosate 49

III-1.1 Glycine 52

III-1.2 IDAN 60



III-1.3 DEA 68

III-1.4 PMIDA 79

III-1.5 Yellow phosphorous 85

III-1.6 Phosphorus trichloride 92

III-1.7 Dimethyl phosphite 97

III-1.8 Paraformaldehyde 103

III-1.9 Hydrocyanic acid 112

III-1.10 Other materials 116

III-1.10.1 Formaldehyde 116

III-1.10.2 Natural gas 118

III-2 Impacts of raw materials on glyphosate industry 121

IV Glyphosate supply 124

IV-1 Glyphosate registration situation 124

IV-2 Glyphosate technical 130

- China’s position in the world glyphosate technical supply 130

- Total supply 131

- Producers 132

- Production by region 140

- Production by pathway 141

- New projects 144

IV-3 Glyphosate formulations 145

IV-3.1 Overview 145

- China’s position in the world glyphosate formulations supply 146

- Total supply by specific formulation 147

IV-3.2 Introduction to specific formulations 155

- Glyphosate 41% solution 155

- Soluble powder & WP forms of glyphosate formulations 156

- High content glyphosate water formulations 157

IV-3.3 China’s weakness in formulation production 158

IV-3.4 Analysis of ban on glyphosate SL with concentration less than 30% 160

IV-3.5 China’s glyphosate formulation trend and its impacts on global market 162

IV-4 Mass balance between glyphosate and its upstream products 166

IV-5 Forecast of glyphosate supply in the next five years 168

V Trade analysis 169

V-1 Trade position in the world 169

V-2 Antidumping issues involving Chinese glyphosate 169

V-3 Export situation of PMIDA and glyphosate 172

V-4 Chinese glyphosate flow 187

V-5 Trade trend of glyphosate in the next five years 191

VI Pricing of glyphosate 192



VI-1 Price 192

VI-1.1 Key factors influencing glyphosate pricing 192

VI-1.2 Analysis of price changes in the past 193

VI-1.3 Current price and price forecast to 2009~2014 196

VI-2 Price index model for glyphosate 200

VI-3 Identification 204

VII Demand for glyphosate 206

VII-1 Global demand for glyphosate 206

- Overview of global genetically modified crop 206

- Global demand for glyphosate 209

VII-2 Domestic demand for glyphosate 212

VII-2.1 Overview of Chinese glyphosate technical consumption 388

VII-2.2 Position and market size of glyphosate in herbicide industry 307

VII-2.3 Glyphosate formulations use in China 308

- by specific formulation 214

- by crop 216

- by region 227

VII-3 Forecast of glyphosate demand in the next five years 234

VIII Production technology & technology level 236

VIII-1 Glyphosate technical 236

VIII-1.1 AEA pathway 237

VIII-1.1.1 Description 237

VIII-1.1.2 Development of AEA pathway in China 238

VIII-1.1.3 Theoretical consumption of raw materials for AEA pathway 243

VIII-1.1.4 Advantages and problems 244

VIII-1.2 DEA route 244





VIII-1.3 IDAN route 250





VIII-1.4 Comparison of different pathways and development trend 253

VIII-1.5 Wastewater treatment technology 254

VIII-2 Glyphosate formulations 259

VIII-3 Cost analysis of glyphosate (five major glyphosate producers) 266

VIII-3.1 Zhejiang Wynca Chemical Industrial Group Co., Ltd. 267



… … 0

VIII-3.5 Hubei Sanonda Co., Ltd. 274

IX Competitive landscape of Chinese glyphosate industry 276

X Outlook of Chinese glyphosate in the next five years 283

X-1 Research hot points 283

X-2 Development trend of pathways 284

X-3 Trends of production cost 285

X-4 Trends of supply & demand 287

XI Conclusion, challenges, commercial opportunities and recommendation 290

XI-1 Conclusion 290

XI-2 Challenges, commercial opportunities and recommendation 293

XII Appendix 297

XII-1 Glyphosate technical producers 297

XII-1.01 Zhejiang Wynca Chemical Group Co., Ltd. 297

… … 0

XII-1.45 Shandong Wucheng Kangda Chemical Co., Ltd. 386

XII-2 PMIDA producers 388

XII-2.01 Jinan Glyline Chemical Co., Ltd. 388

… … 0

XII-2.05 Jiangsu Zhongdan Group Co., Ltd. 393

XII-3 Recent activities 395

XII-4 SWOT analysis of the five glyphosate manufacturers 399

Executive summary:

Glyphosate, the key active ingredient of Roundup, is one of the most commonly sold herbicides in the market today. With rapidly increasing demand, glyphosate has shared more than xx% of the global herbicide sales volume. After nearly 30 years’ development, China has become the largest production base of glyphosate technical in the world and has been supplying nearly two thirds of the global production of glyphosate, one of the most popular herbicides. China’s glyphosate industry has developed fast since 2007 with rapid increase in both capacity and output. The total capacity of glyphosate technical in 2008 was xxxxt/a with annual growth rate of xxxx%. As of August 2009, China has had xx glyphosate producers with total capacity of around xxxxt/a. And the estimated glyphosate output reached xxxx tonnes in 2008 with CAGR of xxxx% in 2004-2008. Attracted by fat profit in glyphosate production in H2 2007 and H1 2008, over xx new entrants rushed into glyphosate technical production in 2008 due to lack of supervision on and low entry threshold of glyphosate industry.



China’s glyphosate industry highly depends on overseas market, with about xx% of its glyphosate output exported every year. Besides, China has become the largest exporter of glyphosate in the world in recent years, and the export volume has reached xxxx tonnes in 2008, satisfying around xxxx% of the global demand. The export volume of glyphosate technical shared about xxxx% of the total technical output in 2008. In China, glyphosate is quite important for the weeding in orchard, wasteland reclamation, and traditional crop fields in the period of pre-seeding. Orchard is the largest application of glyphosate, accounting for about xxxx% of the country’s total in 2008. With the lowest price among various formulations, 10%SL is the most popular glyphosate formulation at home, accounting for about xx% of the total glyphosate formulation use in 2008. The top x provinces by glyphosate consumption (AI) are Guangdong, Guangxi, Henan, Yunnan and Shandong, with their total consumption accounting for about xxxx% of the country’s total in 2008. There are two pathways for glyphosate production in China including IDA pathway and AEA pathway. According to the difference of raw materials, IDA pathway can also be subdivided into two categories, which are DEA route and IDAN route. Because of its simple flowchart and mature technology, AEA method is easy to be mastered by most companies, plus the sufficient raw material supply in China, the AEA pathway which has been eliminated in the international market has been widely used in China’s glyphosate industry. As of August 2009, the glyphosate capacity by this pathway was about xxxxt/a, accounting for xxxx% of China’s total capacity.

Character of CCM' Report:

This trade analysis report, a consultancy product derived from CCM's import and export statistics, provides key findings on researched subject from aspects of, possibly not all and not limited to the following: import, export, production, key suppliers, price, market, even consumption, etc., with foreign trade, namely, import and/or export, of the researched subject as the focus. This consultancy, with key findings, aims to assist you to uncover potential opportunities through analysing researched subject's flow into and/or out of China. The aim of this report is to provide powerful assistance to the strategy group and the management team in making correct decision as how to penetrate the ever-increasing China market and how to catch the maximum commercial opportunities. The report is formulated independently by CCM’s professional market researchers, based on the first-hand and primary data which are analyzed by scientific methodology, confirmed with both manufacturers/end users/traders and legal authorities, and presented in a logic way. Sample pages：

IV-2 Glyphosate technical - China’s position in the world glyphosate technical supply Table IV-2-1 Key players of glyphosate technical in the world (‘000 tonnes)

PMIDA Glyphosate technical

Source Glyphosate producers Output ’08

Self-supply Outsource Capacity ’09 Output ’08

*** **** * ***** *** About 50 Chinese producers

Monsanto (US, Argentina, Brazil,

Belgium, Malaysia) ** *** *** ***** ***

*** *** *** ** ** Atanor (Argentina)

* * **** ** ** Nortox (Brazil)

*** **** * ** ** *******************

*** * **** *** * ************

* * **** * * *************

* * **** * * **************

* * **** * * **********************

* * **** *** ** ******

*** * * **** **** Total

Source: CCM International

Note: Only PMIDA production circulated in the market is calculated. Monsanto’s PMIDA is consumed by itself.

Table IV-2-2 Situation of China’s glyphosate output in global market, 2005-2008 (tonne)

Year Global output China output China

share PMIDA output Total* Share

******* ****** ****** **** ****** ****** 2004

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******* ******* ****** ****** ******* ****** 2007

******* ******* ****** ******* ******* ****** 2008

Total* including the glyphosate technical and that converted from PMIDA Source: CCM International

Table IV-2-3 Situation of China’s glyphosate in the overseas market, 2004-2008 (tonne)

Year Overseas consumption* Export Share Export of PMIDA Total Share

******* ****** ****** * ****** ****** 2004

******* ****** ****** ****** ******* ****** 2005

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Overseas consumption* means the demand excluding China’s Total* including the glyphosate technical and glyphosate technical converted from PMIDA Source: CCM International

- Producers Table IV-2-5 Overview of glyphosate technical manufacturers in China-2

Capacity, t/a Output, tonne Abbreviation

Pathway

2009

Raw material

'09 No.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2005 2006 2007 **** ******* 2005

XII-1.01 Zhejiang Wynca AEA glycine ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ******

XII-1.02 Zhenjiang Jiangnan AEA glycine ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ***** ***** ****** ****** ******

XII-1.03 Hubei Taisheng AEA glycine * * ***** ****** ****** * * ***** ****** *****

XII-1.04 Zhejiang Jinfanda AEA glycine ***** ***** ***** ****** ****** ***** ***** ***** ****** *****

Nantong Jiangshan IDA & AEA glycine & IDAN ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** XII-1.05

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V Trade analysis V-1 Trade position in the world China is a very important player in global glyphosate trade. As climbing energy costs keep pushing production costs to grow, developed countries have chosen to import glyphosate from China, mainly attributed to low costs of labor and other resources in China. China therefore has become the biggest exporter of glyphosate in the world in recent years, with export volume reaching xxxxx tonnes in 2008, satisfying around xxxx% of the global demand. …….. Figure V-1.1 Global technical supply & China’s rising share in global supply, 2004-2008 …….. V-3 Export situation of PMIDA and glyphosate As the largest glyphosate supplier in the world, the export volume of glyphosate and PMIDA in China has kept increasing in recent years. Average export growth rate of glyphosate technical, formulation and PMIDA stayed at xxxx%, xxxx% and xxxxx% separately from 2004-2008. …… V-4 Chinese glyphosate flow Figure V-4.1 Glyphosate technical flow, 2008 …… As the largest glyphosate supplier in the word, China has exported xxxxx tonnes glyphosate technical in 2008, accounting for xxxxx% of China’s glyphosate technical output in 2008. …… Table V-4.1 Cooperation between oversea key players and Chinese companies

Oversea key player Main Chinese supplier

Monsanto xxxxxx, xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, xxxxxxxx, xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Dow xxxxxxxxx, xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Syngenta xxxxxxxxxx, xxxxxxxxx, xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Helm xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Nufarm xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Atanor xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx


VII-2 Domestic demand for glyphosate VII-2.1 Overview of Chinese glyphosate technical consumption VII-2.2 Position and market size of glyphosate in herbicide industry Table VII-2.2-1 Supply and consumption of herbicides and its share in glyphosate, 2004~2008 (Calculated by AI, tonne)

Output Consumption Year

Herbicide Glyphosate Share Herbicide Glyphosate Share

2004 ******* ****** ****** ****** ****** ******

2005 ******* ******* ****** ****** ****** ******

2006 ******* ******* ****** ****** ****** ******

2007 ******* ******* ****** ****** ****** ******

2008 ******* ******* ****** ******* ****** ******


As a non-selective herbicide, after so many years’ promotion, glyphosate has an irreplaceable position in the ***************************************************************************************************. And its consumption had grown at *******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************e use in China. VII-2.3 Glyphosate formulations use in China by specific formulation Table VII-2.3-1 Consumption of main glyphosate formulations in China, 2004~2008, tonne

Main formulations 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 CAGR, 04~08

10%SL ****** ****** ******* ******* ******* ******

41%SL ***** ***** ***** ****** ****** ******

20%SL *** *** ***** ***** ***** ******

Others ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ******

Total ****** ****** ******* ******* ******* ******


Note: Others mainly include WP, especially 50%WP.

Table VII-2.3-2 Provinces with 41%IPA consumption exceeding 800 tonnes in 2008, tonne

41%IPA

consumption

10%SL

consumptionProvince

20%SL

consumption

50%WP

consumptionTotal

Share of

41%IPA

Heilongjiang ***** ***** * *** ***** ******

Sichuan ***** ***** * *** ***** ******

Guangdong ***** ****** * *** ****** ******

Jilin ***** *** * *** ***** ******

Shaanxi ***** ***** * *** ****** ******

************** ***** *** * *** ***** ******

******** ***** ***** * ** ***** ******

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***** *** ***** * *** ***** ******

******* *** ****** * *** ****** *****


by crop Table VII-2.3-3 Planting area of main crops in China, 2004~2008, 000’ hectares

Main crops 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 CAGR ‘04~’08

Rice ****** ****** ****** ****** ******* *****

Wheat ****** ****** ****** ****** ******* *****

Corn ****** ****** ****** ****** ******* *****

Soybean ***** ***** ***** ***** ****** ******

Cotton ***** ***** ***** ***** ****** *****

Sugarcane ***** ***** ***** ***** ****** *****

Tea ***** ***** ***** ***** ****** *****

Rubber *** *** *** **** **** *****

orchard ***** ****** ****** ****** ******* *****

Total ******* ******* ******* ******* ******* *****

Share in total crop area ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** *

Source: Ministry of Agriculture

Note: Number with * is estimated by CCM International

Table VII-2.3-4 Glyphosate consumption in main crops in China, 2004~2008, tonne

Crop 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 CAGR 04~08

Orchard ***** ***** ***** ***** ****** ******

Corn *** *** ***** ***** ***** ******

Rubber *** *** ***** ***** ***** ******

Rice *** *** ***** ***** ***** ******

Soybean *** *** *** *** *** ******

Cotton *** *** *** *** *** ******

Wheat *** ***** ***** ***** ***** ******

Sugarcane *** *** *** *** *** ******

Tea *** *** *** *** *** ******

Others ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ******

Total ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ******


Note: Others mainly include weeding for wasteland reclamation, non-agriculture use, etc.

Orchard Orchard covered an a*********************************************************** year on year. And the main fruits with large planting area were apple, orange, pear, peach, litchi and grape. Table VII-2.3-5 Glyphosate consumption in main fruits, 2004~2008, calculated by AI, tonne

Main fruits 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 CAGR,04~08

Orange *** *** *** ***** ***** ******

Apple *** ***** ***** ***** ***** ******

Litchi *** *** ***** ***** ***** ******

Pear *** *** *** *** *** ******

Grape *** *** *** *** *** ******

Others ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ******

Total ***** ***** ***** ***** ****** ******

Share in total ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** *


outlook for china glyphosate industry 2009 2014 - edition 6

Education