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Outlook for home-grown timber in Welsh housing
Hamish MacleodDirector, Public Affairs,BSW Timber Group
www.bsw.co.uk
@bswtimber
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Welsh Forestry Sector
• £528 Million gvaindustry
• 500k sawn products• Supports 11,000 jobs• Positive contribution
to rural economy• Major element in CO2
mitigation
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UK Forestry Sector: a naturally circular economy
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BSW Sawmills
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BSW Fort William Sawmill
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BSW Newbridge-on-Wye Sawmill
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63% of the sawn softwood market is imported
BSW Timber has 24% of UK-produced market share – which equates to 22,000 trucks per year
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UK Market Share
BSW Timber has a 10% share of overall sawn softwood market in the UK
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35,626
23,475
19,000
BSW Timber Sales in Wales (cubic metres)
Construction Fencing & Landscaping Pallets & Packaging
78,101 m3
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Product Overview
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0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
2013 2014 2015fc 2016fc
Imports UK Production TTF National Softwood Division Forecast
9.49 million m3 forecast
8.47 million m3
9.49 million m3 9.29 million m3 forecast
2.15% increase in 2016
UK Sawn Softwood Timber Consumption
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New Home Building & Softwood Imports
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980
= 1
00
Indexed UK Housing Starts and Sawn Softwood Imports, 1970-2016 (est)
Housing Starts Softwood Imports
timbertrends
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980
= 1
00
Indexed UK Housing Starts and Sawn Softwood Imports, 1970-2016
& Forecast 2017-2019
Housing Starts Softwood Imports
New Home Building & Softwood Imports
timbertrends
Fencing & Outdoor Market by Source
1,116
1,385
222 324
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
000m
3
UK Domestic Imported
timbertrends
Pallets & Packaging Market by Source
717
1,008
1,357
401
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
000m
3
UK Domestic Imported
timbertrends
Construction Market by Source
892 822
5,575
4,552
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
000m
3
UK Domestic Imported
timbertrends
More Better Report
RECOMMENDATIONS:
Affordable housing projects should be used to test emerging Welsh Housing Standards, and to identify the benefits and limitations of different construction techniques, by means of:
• performance comparisons (primarily energy and carbon, during delivery and in-use).
• potential for flexibility, adaptability, ease of maintenance and eventual re-use.
• applicability for alternative delivery pathways or skills training.
• use of local resources / products that might be developed into a Welsh supply chain.
Green, E.and Forster F (2017).More | better: an evaluation of the potential of alternative approaches to inform housing delivery in Wales.
Cardiff: Cardiff University
Timber Frame Housing Share
Timber frame housing share in the UK rose again to 27.6%
• Timber frame share in England rises to 22.2%• Timber frame share in Scotland is stable at 76.0%• Timber frame share in Wales recovers to 32.0%• Timber frame share in Northern Ireland falls to 16.0%
Annual survey of UK structural timber marketsMarket report 2015
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Welsh case study: Gower cabins
(Not Welsh timber!!)
Social housing Scottish Case Study
Social housing Scottish Case Study
Social Housing Scottish Case Study
Scottish case study: R-Affordable Homes
BSW Softwood sawlog forecast availability annual average per 5 year period Trends
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2012-16 2017-21 2022-26 2027-31 2032-36 2037-41 2042-46 2047-51 2052-56 2057-61
000'
s m
3 sa
wlo
gs U
B
BSW UK Wales afforestation record 000s haTrends
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Total Conifers Total Broadleaves