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© Copyright 2018 by K&L Gates LLP. All rights reserved. Michael S. Caccese, Chairman of Management Committee and Co-Practice Area Leader - Financial Services Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry 2018 BOSTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE – November 28, 2018

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Page 1: Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry€¦ · Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry . 2018 BOSTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE – November 28, 2018 . AGENDA

© Copyright 2018 by K&L Gates LLP. All rights reserved.

Michael S. Caccese, Chairman of Management Committee and Co-Practice Area Leader - Financial Services

Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry

2018 BOSTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE – November 28, 2018

Page 2: Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry€¦ · Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry . 2018 BOSTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE – November 28, 2018 . AGENDA

AGENDA Where we are Major challenges and opportunities What the future holds

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Page 3: Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry€¦ · Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry . 2018 BOSTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE – November 28, 2018 . AGENDA

PARAMETERS OF PRESENTATION Focus on Buy Side firms that manage third-party

assets Institutional Retail Funds

Views based on experience, observations, consultant reports, and K&L Gates Asset Management lawyers in Australia, Germany, Hong Kong, Milan, United Kingdom and United States

Limited to 15 minutes 3

Page 4: Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry€¦ · Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry . 2018 BOSTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE – November 28, 2018 . AGENDA

WHERE WE ARE - OVERVIEW Survived the Great Financial Crisis Longest Bear Market in history Industry Managed Assets - $80 Trillion (2002-

$27.3 Trillion) Industry net flows $3.1 Trillion Major growth markets North America – 13% - $37.4 Trillion China 22% - $4.2 Trillion

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Page 5: Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry€¦ · Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry . 2018 BOSTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE – November 28, 2018 . AGENDA

WHERE WE ARE – MANAGED ASSETS

Funds United States France Ireland

Luxembourg United Kingdom Australia

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China – 4th largest asset management market US – $36 Trillion UK – $10 Trillion (11% increase since 2016) Japan - $6 Trillion China - $4.2 Trillion

Page 6: Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry€¦ · Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry . 2018 BOSTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE – November 28, 2018 . AGENDA

WHERE WE ARE CATEGORIES

Passive is fastest growing category 25% managed assets increase in 2017 20% of managed assets but produced revenues of $17 Billion

Active continues to decline 33% of managed assets (57% in 2003) 80% of Japan assets passive

Alternatives 50% of managed assets (33% in 2003)

Watch out – Passive – Smart Beta’s coming 30% growth since 2012 0.50% of total managed assets 0.35% management fee versus 0.50% for active

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Page 7: Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry€¦ · Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry . 2018 BOSTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE – November 28, 2018 . AGENDA

WHERE WE ARE NOW - PROFITS 2017 record profit year – profit margin of 37% 2017 record year of cost increases 69% increase of average managed assets Large inefficiencies Help in downturn

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Page 8: Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry€¦ · Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry . 2018 BOSTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE – November 28, 2018 . AGENDA

POSITIVE TRENDS Excess savings

Savings culture (China, Europe, rising Middle Class) Aging population

Asset accumulation age Retirement savings

New participants Sovereign Wealth Funds Shadow banking/ restrictive banking regulations

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Page 9: Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry€¦ · Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry . 2018 BOSTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE – November 28, 2018 . AGENDA

POSITIVE TRENDS Federal Reserves Fueling equity markets / abundant liquidity Technology

Research tools Risk and attribution analysis Trading costs

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Page 10: Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry€¦ · Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry . 2018 BOSTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE – November 28, 2018 . AGENDA

HEAD WINDS

Fierce Competition Investment giants and specialized firms Fund mergers (fund affiliates) Shrinking product lines Buyers' market

Proactive Regulators Dodd Frank, MiFID II, Australian Royal Commission,

AIFMD, GDPR Liquidity Rule, Fiduciary Rule “Broken Windows”, Regulatory Enforcement, State

and Federal Attorney Generals 10

Page 11: Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry€¦ · Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry . 2018 BOSTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE – November 28, 2018 . AGENDA

HEAD WINDS

Significant barriers to entry Also positive tail wind

Distribution, Distribution, Distribution Controlled by few and powerful

Banks Wirehouses Platform providers Consultants

High Distribution Fees Revenue sharing Shelf space fees Payed by managers not investors

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Page 12: Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry€¦ · Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry . 2018 BOSTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE – November 28, 2018 . AGENDA

RISKS - UNKNOWN Brexit Uninformed regulators and politicians Competing regulations (MiFID II, 28(e) Soft

Dollar) Trade wars

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Page 13: Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry€¦ · Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry . 2018 BOSTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE – November 28, 2018 . AGENDA

RISKS - KNOWN Major Fraud / Failure Madoff Reserve Money Market Fund

Less liquidity Unregulated shadow banking Less tools available by Federal Reserves to

control crisis Lower investor confidence Deglobalization Restricting cross border flow of capital Closing markets to outsiders

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Page 14: Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry€¦ · Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry . 2018 BOSTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE – November 28, 2018 . AGENDA

FUTURE Very bright Industry creative, resilient, adaptive Positive steps Major acquisitions

Federated/Hermes Standard Life/Aberdeen Henderson/Janus Amundi/Pioneer

APAC Passport (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Thailand)

UCITS expansion in Asia Increasing middle class in emerging markets

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Page 15: Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry€¦ · Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry . 2018 BOSTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE – November 28, 2018 . AGENDA

FUTURE ESG – restoring investor confidence Opening of Chinese Fund markets China – London Stock Connect (end 2018) European investor eligible to trade on LSC can buy listed

companies on Shanghai Stock Exchange Eligible PRC investors invest in LSE-listed companies

Hong Kong – London Stock Connect (Brexit Hold) United States lighter regulations Transparency Fees Expenses

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Page 16: Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry€¦ · Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry . 2018 BOSTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE – November 28, 2018 . AGENDA

TECHNOLOGY AI / Robo Advisers Mobile payment systems Distributors – Facebook, Google, Amazon and

Others Block Chain AML, KYC controls Financial reports Trading TAs

Technology as differentiator 16

Page 17: Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry€¦ · Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry . 2018 BOSTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE – November 28, 2018 . AGENDA

Questions?

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Page 18: Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry€¦ · Outlook for the Global Asset Management Industry . 2018 BOSTON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE – November 28, 2018 . AGENDA