outlook for tpes in asia - robert eller assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm...

37
1 PRESENTED BY: Roger Young Vice President-Asia Robert Eller Associates,Inc Ph: 64 21 725 745 [email protected] www.robertellerassoc.com OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA BY: ROBERT ELLER AND ROGER K. YOUNG PREPARED FOR: 2 ND ASIA/CHINA SPECIALTY ELASTOMERS MARKETS CONFERENCE SHANGHAI,CHINA OCTOBER 20,2005 re/mydox/papers/shanghai

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Page 1: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

1

PRESENTED BY:Roger YoungVice President-AsiaRobert Eller Associates,IncPh: 64 21 725 [email protected]

OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIABY: ROBERT ELLER AND ROGER K. YOUNG

PREPARED FOR: 2ND ASIA/CHINA SPECIALTY ELASTOMERS MARKETS CONFERENCESHANGHAI,CHINAOCTOBER 20,2005

re/mydox/papers/shanghai

Page 2: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

2

HIGHLIGHTS• INTRA-TPE AND INTERMATERIALS COMPETITION

• NEW SUPER-TPV TECHNOLOGIES

• IMPLICATIONS OF DEMAND SHIFT FROM WEST TOEAST

• INDUSTRY STRUCTURE CHANGES

• CURRENT AND POTENTIAL ROLE OF CHINA IN THEGLOBAL TPE MARKETPLACE

• DRIVERS FOR TPE DEMAND GROWTH IN ASIA

Page 3: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

3

PRESENTATION BASIS

REA MULTICLIENT STUDIES:

• TPE II IN EUROPE/N.AMERICA

• TPEs IN CHINA

• AUTO INTERIOR SOFT TRIM

• AUTOMOTIVE NONWOVENS

Page 4: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

4

• GLOBAL TPE DEMAND IS GROWING.

• TPE PROPERTIES RANGE INCREASING.

• PROCESS TECHNOLOGIES OPEN NEW APPLICATIONS.

• TPE PENETRATION INTO RUBBER APPLICATIONS POISED TO PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL TPE DEMANDINCREASES.

• GLOBAL ECONOMIC PRESSURES RESHAPINGMARKET AND PATHS TO MARKET.

• SEBS AND TPV CHALLENGED BY: - PLASTOMERS & PVC IN LOW END MARKETS- TPU IN HIGH END MARKETS

OPERATING HYPOTHESES

Page 5: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

5

Specialty Thermoplastic Elastomers . . . Markets, Economics,

Intermaterials Competition, and Industry Structure in China

ENGINEERINGTPEs AND

SUPER-TPVs

METALLOCENEPLASTOMERS/ELASTOMERS

THERMOSETRUBBERS

PVCCOMPOUNDS

TPO SEBS

TPUs

Prospectus for a Multiclient AnalysisJanuary 2005

TPVs

Page 6: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

6

RENEWEDINTEREST FOR

DAMPINGPROPERTIES

NEW DISPERSEDELASTOMER

PHASES,BROADENED

MATRIX RESINCANDIDATES

NEWALLOYS (TPU,ACRYLIC, POs)

FOR LOWTEMP. PERF.

THE TPEs -- NEW FAMILY MEMBERS/BROADENED PERFORMANCE ENVELOPE

TPE FAMILIES

OLEFINIC STYRENIC SUPER-TPVs PVC ENGINEERING TPEs

TPO TPV

NANO-COMPOSITES,

COATED FABRICS,SHIFTING GLOBAL

AUTO SPECS

FOAMS,2-SHOTCROSS-LINKED

HYDRO-GENATED

(SEBS, SEPS)

ISOPRENE-BASED

MIDBLOCKS

NEWSBCTPVs

SILICONE

ACRYLATES

OTHER ALLPVCTPEs

PVCALLOYS

TPU COPA

COPE OTHER

p-TPV (PARTIALCROSSLINKED)

f-TPV (FULLYCROSSLINKED)

BROADENEDAPPLICATIONRANGE FOR

p-TPVs

-BROADER USE OFMETALLO ELASTOMERS

-NEW FOAM TECHNOLOGIES-IMPROVED ADHESION TO

METAL/TEXTILES-INCREASED SOFTNESS W/

REDUCED OIL CONTENTSOURCE: ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES, INC., 2005

Page 7: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

7

NEW TPE COMPETITORS, TECHNOLOGIES, AND TARGETS

TPEs

OLEFINIC(o-TPEs)

STYRENIC(SBCs) SUPER-TPVs PVC

TPEs E-TPEs

TPO TPV HYDROGENATED(SEBS, SEPS)

ISOPRENE-BASEDMIDBLOCKS

NEWSBCTPVs

SILICONE

ACRYLATES

OTHER

TPU

COPE

COPA

OTHERS

p-TPV (PARTIALCROSSLINKED)

f-TPV (FULLYCROSSLINKED)

SOURCE: ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES, INC., 2005

NANO-TPOs

LGF-PPs

NFCs

DAMPINGPROPERTIES

FOAMS,2-SHOT,SEALS

-BROADER USE OFMETALLO ELASTOMERS-IMPROVED ADHESION

-INCREASED SOFTNESS-IMPROVED FOAM

TECHNOLOGY

BROADENEDAPPLICATION

RANGE -- SKINS,AIRBAG DOORS

Page 8: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

8

NEW TPE FAMILIES• ACRYLIC, SILICONE, FLUOROPOLYMER BASED

SUPER TPV DRIVING FORCES-UNDER HOOD TEMP INCREASE-NEW FUEL EMISSIONS REG’S-DYNAMIC SEAL PERFORMANCE-COST SAVINGS

• SBC-BASED TPVs IN WHICH SBC IS CROSSLINKED TO IMPROVE HEAT AND CHEMICAL RESISTANCE AND COMPRESSION SET PROPERTIES

• SOFT TPUs AND SEBS/TPU ALLOYS

• NANO-TPOs AND TPVs

Page 9: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

9

SUPER-TPVs COMPETING IN THE AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR

DUPONTCOPEETHYLENE ACRYLATE (AEM)

E-TPV

TEKNOR APEXPPHYDROGENATED SBC (H-SBC)

UNIPRENE XL

OPTATECH (NJOP)PP, OTHERSACRYLIC RUBBERPACREL

FREUDENBERG-NOK

FLUOROPOLYMERFLUOROELASTOMERFLUOROPRENE

ZEONPP, PA, POLYESTERPOLYACRYLATE (ACM)

ZEOTHERM

WACKERSEVERALSILICONEGENIOMER

DOW CORNINGPA, TPU, PPSILICONETPSiV

SUPPLIERMATRIX RESIN(S)ELASTOMER TYPEGRADE NAME

Page 10: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

10

H 250 (482)

OIL RESISTANCE/HEAT RESISTANCE OF TPEs AND THERMOSET RUBBERS

TYPE C (1)

G 225 (437)

F 200 (382)

E 175 (347)

D 150 (332)

C 125 (257)

B 100 (212)

A 70 (158)

HEA

T R

ESIS

TAN

CE

CLA

SS

CLASS NO. REQ.A

140B

120C

100D

80E

60F

40G

20H

10K

% SWELL IN #3 OILOIL RESISTANCE

EPDM(P)

METALLOPLASTOMERS

IIR(S)

SEBS

NR

CR

CSM

VQM

ACSIUM

FVQM

ACM

EAM

KALREZ (R)

FKM

COPE

ECO

ALCRYN

M-ACN NBRTPVs

L-ACN NBR

H-ACN NBR

GEOLAST

NOTESFKM = VITON (R)

FVQM - FLUOROSILICONESCR = CHLOROPRENEACM = POLYACRYLATEVQM = SILICONEEAM = VAMAC (R)

IIR = BUTYLNR = NATURAL RUBBERECO = EPICHLORHYDRINCSM = CHLOROSULFONATED PEH-ACN = HIGH NITRILEFA = THIOKOL(S) = SULFUR CURE(P) = PEROXIDE CURE(R) = RESIN CURE

SBC TARGET ZONE

FA

IIR(R)

EPDM(S)

SBS

O-TPV TARGET ZONE

LOW VALUE OIL RESIST.TARGET ZONE

EPDM TARGET ZONE

s-TPV TARGET ZONE

SOURCE: ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES, INC.; TPE MULTICLIENT, 2005

Page 11: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

11

ESTABLISHED PATH:

RAW MATERIALS

INDEPENDENTCOMPOUNDER

FABRICATORCUSTOMER

CUSTOMER

NEW PATH:

RAW MATERIALS

TPE CONCENTRATEPRODUCER

TPE CONCENTRATE

SPECIALTYCOMPOUNDER

CAPTIVEFABRICATOR

COMPOUNDER

SPECIALTY TPECOMPOUND

FABRICATORCUSTOMERS

FABRICATED PARTS

PROPRIETARYTPE COMPOUND

CAPTIVEFABRICATION

FABRICATED PARTS(D)

BODYSEALS

AUTOINTERIOR

SKINS

BELT-ING

CUSTOMER

NOTES:(A) STARTING WITH TPVs, EXTENDING TO TPO, POSSIBLY SEBS-TYPE TPEs(B) E.G., FIRE RETARDANT, CONDUCTIVE FILLERS(C) E.G., POLYPROPYLENE, EXTENDING TO ENGINEERING PLASTICS(D) EXAMPLE FABRICATED PARTS SECTORS

MATRIX RESIN(C)

SPECIALTY ADDITIVE(B)

PROPRIETARY ADDITIVE

PATH-TO-MARKET SHIFT FOR TPE COMPOUNDS(A)

Page 12: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

12

TPE TECHNOLOGIES:

-RESIN-COMP'DG.-FABRICATION-TECHNOLOGY PROLIFERATION

-BROADENED PRODUCT ENVELOPE-LOWER SYSTEMS COSTS-INDUSTRY STRUCTURE SHIFT

END USER MARKET, MACROECONOMIC TRENDS:

-MFG. SHIFT TO LOWER COST COUNTRIES (ASIA, E.E., ETC.)-ENTRY OF NEW COUNTRIES INTO GLOBAL MKT. ECONOMY-ENLARGEMENT OF GLOBAL CONSUMER CLASS (3-->6BN)-EMERGENCE OF NEW WORKER CLASS (+1.5BN)-SLOWED POPULATION GROWTH IN WEST-RELATIVELY STAGNANT/SLOWED GROWTH IN WESTERN ECONOMY-SEVERE DOWNWARD OEM PRICE PRESSURES-DEMAND SHIFT TO NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES-DEMAND DRIVEN RAW MAT'L. PRICE INCREASES

RUBBER SECTOR:

-SLOW INNOVATION IN POLYMER TECHNOLOGY FABRICATION TECHNOLOGY-VERY LIMITED INVESTMENT-LOW R/D LEVELS

GLOBALCOMPUTER AND

INFO. MGT.TECHNOLOGY

CONVERGENCE

ENTRY OFNEWLY

INDUSTRIALIZEDCOUNTRIES

INTO GLOBALMKT. ECONOMY

-UPWARD SECU- LARIZATION-SHIFT OF POLI- TICAL POWER

GLOBAL MARKET STRUCTURE/MACROECONOMIC CHANGES:

-GLOBAL HORIZONTAL COLLABORATION REPLACING VERTICAL CHAIN OF COMMAND & MKT. STRUCTURE

-SUPPLY CHAIN RESTRUCTURE

-GLOBAL PERF. STANDARDS

-MFG. BASE SHIFT (EASTWARD)

-EMERGENCE OF NEW, LOCALLY CONTROLLED OEM MFG.

-SHIFT IN ROLE OF SALES/MKTG.

-CONT'D. OEM GLOBAL MKT. CONSOLIDATION?(b)

-OUTWARD FLOW OF PROFITS FROM NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES TOWARD WESTERN INVESMENT

-INCREASED TERRORISM

-SUPPLY CHAIN MANIPULATION BY MAJOR GLOBAL OEMs

-SHARP INCREASE IN RUBBER MKT. PENETRATION BY TPEs

-TPE DEMAND SHIFT EASTWARD

-SLOW GROWTH OF WESTERN TPE MARKETS

-TREND TOWARD HIGHER VALUE TPEs IN WESTERN MARKETS

-TPE SUPPLY CHAIN CONSOL- IDATION

-TPE INDUSTRY STRUCTURE SHIFT

-EMERGENCE OF NEW, LOCALLY CONTROLLED RESIN AND TPE COMPOUND PRODUCERS(a)

-NET GLOBAL TPE DEMAND INCREASE

-SHIFT TOWARD NEW TPE TECHNOLOGIES

TPE EFFECTS:

NOTES: (a)A NEW PARALLEL SUPPLY CHAIN CHALLENGING THE POSITION OF ESTABLISHED WESTERN TPE SUPPLIERS(b)PARTIALLY OFFSET BY EMERGENCE OF NEW, LOCAL COMPETITION IN NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED REGIONS

POLYMER TECHNOLOGY, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY MACROECONOMIC INFLUENCES ON TARGET TPEs

Page 13: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

13

THE ECONOMIC WAR IS OVER?• MANUFACTURING FOR MANY TPE END PRODUCT SECTORS HAVE

ALREADY SHIFTED FROM WEST TO EAST• YUAN REVALUATION:

-TOKEN GESTURE?-AGAINST A MARKET BASKET(U.S. DOLLAR EQUALLY WEIGHTED WITH OTHER CHINESE TRADING PARTNER CURRENCIES)-U.S. DOLLAR POWER WEAKENED-SUBSTANTIAL ASIAN COST ADVANTAGE WILL CONTINUE

• CHINESE U.S. BOND INVESTMENT SLOWS U.S. RETALIATION POT’L• ASIAN TPE MARKET SIZES DWARF U.S. AND EUROPE MARKETS

-MARKET POWER OF 3 BN NEW CONSUMERS-1.5 BN NEW WORKERS

• ASIA PULLING AHEAD IN TECH. EDUCATION LEVEL AND NUMBERS

Page 14: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

14

POPULATION LIVING IN EXTREME POVERTY

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1990 2001 2015

NU

MB

ER O

F PE

OPL

E, M

M

CHINA

S. ASIA(b)

SUB SAHARANAFRICA

Page 15: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

150% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

CEMENT

COTTON

RICE

COAL

CRUDE STEEL

ALUMINUM

COPPER

WHEAT

OIL

CHINA'S SHARE OF GLOBAL RAW MATERIALS CONSUMPTION

Page 16: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

160%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1982 1994 2004

% O

F W

OR

LD V

ALU

E-A

DD

ED

OTHERKOREAFRANCEGERMANYCHINAJAPANUS

SHARE OF WORLDWIDE MANUFACTURER VALUE-ADDED

Page 17: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

17

MARKET SECTOR GLOBAL NOTE/TPE IMPORTANCEMARKET SHARE%

CAMERAS 50 GRIPS/SOFT TOUCH/BUTTONSFANS 50 MINORDVD READERS 54 GRIPS/SOFT TOUCH/BUTTONSTELEPHONES 50TV SETS 30MOBILE PHONES 28 GRIPS/SOFT TOUCH/BUTTONSLAPTOP COMPUTERS 12 PADS/BUTTONS/SOFT TOUCHAUTOMOBILE 5

CHINA SHARES OF GLOBAL PRODUCTION

Page 18: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

18

CELLULAR PHONE USERS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

MM

SU

BSC

RIB

ERS

INDIA CHINA USA

INDIA, CHINA, AND USA CELL PHONE USE (MILLIONS OF PEOPLE)

Page 19: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

19

WET RAZOR PRODUCTION

213144.9

1,307

278

580

980

21

380

2,460

890

1,440

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2000 2005 2010

MM

UN

ITS

PRO

DU

CED

N. AMERICAN PRODUCTONEUROPEAN PRODUCTIONINDIAN PRODUCTIONCHINESE PRODUCTION

Page 20: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

20

POWER TOOL PRODUCTION

290

2.0

4.1

2.9

1.9

2.1

4.4

2

11

26

250310

1

10

100

1,000

2000 2005 2010

MM

UN

ITS

PRO

DU

CED

N. AMERICAN PRODUCTONEUROPEAN PRODUCTIONINDIAN PRODUCTIONCHINESE PRODUCTION

Page 21: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

21

PARALLEL SUPPLY CHAIN• WESTERN TPE COMPOUNDERS:

-ONLY NOW RESPONDING TO CHINA/INDIA TPE POT’L-WOFEs VS. JV’S (IP PROTECTION)-TARGETING TRANSPLANTS-LIMITED ACCESS TO DOMESTIC MARKETS-CULTURAL BARRIERS-FORCED TO USE LOCAL CHANNEL PARTNERS-BONDED WAREHOUSES WILL MAKE IMPORTING EASIER

• ASIAN DOMESTIC COMPOUNDERS:-TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER BARRIERS NOT SIGNIFICANT-GOVERNMENT SUPPORT-BETTER(FAMILY/CULTURAL) CONNECTIONS-LIMITED ACCESS TO TRANSPLANT CUSTOMERS THUS FAR-PRICES LOWER BUT GAP CLOSING

Page 22: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

22

ENTRANCE OF WESTERN TPE SUPPLIERS TPE TYPE

Company SEBS TPO TPV TPU Metallo Eng-TPE

Super TPV

Mfr/ Import Notes

Compounders:Alpha Gary x Import No local AG office/only sales agents (Paeco)Arkema x Import Nylon based thermoplastic elastomerBasell x x ImportBASF x ImportDow x x ImportDow Corning x x x ImportDSM x x x ImportDupont x Import ETP-TPVExxon/Mobil x x Import Includes AESGE x Import Flexible NorylGLS x Import Suzhou Plant opening 2006Merquinsa x ImportMilton Plastics (Kraiburg)

x x x Import

Mitsui x ImportOptatech x x Mfr JV with NJOPNoveon x Mfr Opened plant in 2005Poly One x x x Mfr Mixed capacity multi product plantRTP x x x x Mfr Shared capacity multi product plantSchulman x x x x MfrSK x x x Mfr/ Import Chinese plant only SEBS compounds/shared

capacity plant with PP compoundsSolvay Eng Polymers

x x Import Recently introduced to the Chinese market

SPC (Teknor Apex) x x Import Plant in SingaporeZylog x Import Indian plant location SO

UR

CE

: RO

BE

RT

EL

LE

R A

SSO

CIA

TE

S,IN

C.,

2005

Page 23: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

23

EXAMPLE APPLICATIONS FOR RECENTLY DEVELOPED TPEs

VALVE COVER SEALS(a)

DEFLECTORS, SHIELDS(r-TPV OPPORTUNITY)

COATED FABRICS

BODY SIDEMOLDING*

ROCKERPANELS*

NON-CARPETFLOORING

FUEL SYS-TEMS(a)

SEALS(a)

FASCIA*

SKINS*

NOTES:-DOES NOT SHOW BODY/GLAZING SEALS, A CONTINUING GROWTH OPPORTUNITY* INDICATES NANO-TPE OPPORTUNITY(a) s-TPV TARGET(b) NOTE COMPETITION WITH LGF-PP

HIGH PERFORMANCEBODY PLUGS

EXTERIOR PANELS*

MISC. INTERIORSOFT TOUCH

HIGH PERFORMANCE BOOTS/BELLOWS(a)

STEP PADS ANDRUNNING BOARDS*(b)

HOSE*

SOURCE: ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES, INC., 2005

Page 24: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

24

DRIVING FORCES FOR AUTOMOTIVE TPE GROWTH

• AUTOMOTIVE ACCOUNTS FOR 40-50% OF DEMAND FOR TPEs

• MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY DRIVER

• MAJOR CONCENTRATION OF HIGH VOLUME RUBBER APPLICATIONS

• PRICE REDUCTION PRESSURES HAVE INTENSIFIED AS RESULT

OF GLOBAL SOURCING

• VALUE ADDED OPPORTUNITIES

Page 25: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

25

- NANO-TPOsIMPROVED SCRATCH/MAR RESIST.

- TWO-SHOT MOLDING (LARGE PARTS)SOFT TOUCH

- FAVORS NANO-TPOsZERO-GAP (EXTERIOR/INTERIOR)

- LOW CLTE NANO TPEs- PROCESS CRAFTSMANSHIP SOLUTIONS

IMPROVED FIT/FINISH

- RIGID/FLEXIBLE COMBINATIONS- TPV AND SEBS BODY SEALS- TWO-SHOT MOLDING OF LARGE PARTS

SYSTEMS COST SAVINGS

- FOAMING OF SEBS- RAPID GROWTH OF NANO-TPOs

WEIGHT SAVINGS

TPE GROWTH/VALUE OPPORTUNITYAUTOMOTIVE REQUIREMENT

TPE GROWTH/VALUE OPPORTUNITIES FROM SHIFTING AUTOMOTIVE REQUIREMENTS

Page 26: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

26

- A TPE BENEFIT FOR SEBS- NEGATIVE FOR NANO-TPOs

LOW GLOSS INTERIORS FOR “EUROPEAN LOOK”

-IMPROVED SCRATCH/MAR TPO AND TPV GRADES-IN-MOLD DECORATION-INCREASED CO-EXTRUSION

COATINGS ELIMINATION

-PLASTICIZER REDUCTION-SUBSTITUTE OLEFINS FOR OTHER FAMILIES

ODOR-FREE INTERIORS

- MAJOR DRIVER FOR p-TPV SKINSINVISIBLE AIRBAG DOORS

- STRONG GROWTH FOR SOME s-TPVsOIL RESISTANCE

- GROWTH OF NANO-TPES?- s-TPVs

REDUCED FUEL VAPOR LOSS

TPE GROWTH/VALUE OPPORTUNITYAUTOMOTIVE REQUIREMENT

TPE GROWTH/VALUE OPPORTUNITIES FROM SHIFTING AUTOMOTIVE REQUIREMENTS (CONT’D)

Page 27: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

27

TPE GROWTH/VALUE OPPORTUNITIES FROM SHIFTING AUTOMOTIVE REQUIREMENTS (CONT’D)

-TPEs WITH IMPROVED COLOR CONTROL-LOWER FILLER LEVELS

MOLDED-IN COLOR

-o-TPE ROLE IN ALL-POLYOLEFIN CONSTRUCTIONS-RE-INTRODUCTION OF TPO SLUSH SKINS

RECYCLABILITY

-ON-BOARD FOAM CONSTRUCTIONSENERGY ABSORPTION (OCCUPANT SAFETY)

-ISOPRENE-BASED GRADES-CONTROLLED DENSITY FOAMS-ELIMINATION OF HEAVY LAYER CONSTRUCTIONS

ACOUSTIC PERFORMANCE

-TPEs WITH INTEGRAL FOAM LAYERS-ISOPRENE-BASED GRADES

IMPROVED NOISE, VIBRATION, HARSHNESS CONTROL

TPE GROWTH/VALUE OPPORTUNITYAUTOMOTIVE REQUIREMENT

Page 28: OUTLOOK FOR TPEs IN ASIA - Robert Eller Assoc 05 ppt.pdf · cr = chloroprene acm = polyacrylate vqm = silicone eam = vamac (r) iir = butyl nr = natural rubber ... with other chinese

28

CONCLUSIONSMANUFACTURING/SUPPLY• WESTERN TPE COMPOUNDERS START TO RESPOND

WITH LOCAL MANUFACTURING• PARALLEL TO SUPPLY CHAINS COMPETING• ASIAN DOMESTIC COMPOUNDER ADVANTAGES

GROWTH• STRONG CHINA TPU GROWTH-DRIVEN BY FOOTWEAR,

AUTOMOTIVE AND CONSUMER PRODUCTS• INTRA TPE COMPETITION WILL SHIFT TOWARD SBCs• RUBBER MARKET PENETRATION ACCELERATING:

- BODY/GLAZING SEALS- HOSE AND BELT

• GROWTH WILL BE 12%

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Manufacturer: Black and DeckerTPE Type: SEBSBond Type: ChemicalManufacturer Location: China

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Manufacturer: Gillette Product Name: Mach 3, GripTPE Type: SEBS Bond Type: PhysicalManufacturer Location: ChinaNote: Grip and head with different TPEs

Manufacturer: GilletteProduct Name: Venus 3TPE Type: SEBSBond Type: ChemicalManufacturer Location: Poland

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Manufacturer: P&GProduct Name: PanteneNote: TPEs expensive vs. incumbents. Plastomers entering competition with EVA cap liners

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Manufacturer: MoenProduct: Faucet Mounting PlateTPE Type: TPVBond Type: PhysicalManufacturer Location: USANote: 2-Shot Nylon-Bonding TPV.

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Manufacturer: StanleyTPE Type: SEBSBond Type: ChemicalManufacturer Location: ChinaNote: Two color

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Manufacturer: ValeoTPV Type: TPVManufacturer Location: EuropeNote: Example of boots/bellows and EPDM replacement.

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EXAMPLE TPV USAGE IN FLEXIBLE PIPE

SOURCE: WELLSTREAM, ROBERT ELLER ASSOCIATES, INC.

LAYER LEGEND

-A FLEXBODY – INTERLOCKING METAL CARCASS-B FLEXBARRIER – POLYMER FLUID BARRIER (PVDF)-C FLEXLINER – POLYMER FLUID BARRIER (PVDF)-D FLEXLOK – STEEL HOOP STRENGTH LAYER -G FLEXTENSILE – HELICAL STEEL ARMORS-H FLEXTAPE – POLYMER TAPE LAYER (PP TAPE)-I FLEXSHIELD – EXTRUDED POLYMER LAYER (TPV, DYMANIC ONLY; PE, STATIC ONLY)

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Product type:Rear tailgate seal

Note: Sponge/dense EPDM

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