outlook of the international oil situationeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8618.pdf · vehicle sales volume...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Outlook of the International Oil Situationeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8618.pdf · vehicle sales volume slowed down, falling by 0.9 million units (13.0%) year -on-year in the second quarter](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011903/5f161171609b3b69dd15acf6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Outlook of the International Oil Situation
The Institute of Energy Economics, JapanSecretary-General, The Oil Information CenterYoshihiro Hashizume
432nd Forum on Research Works July 23, 2019
IEEJ © July 2019 Unauthorized reproduction prohibited
![Page 2: Outlook of the International Oil Situationeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8618.pdf · vehicle sales volume slowed down, falling by 0.9 million units (13.0%) year -on-year in the second quarter](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011903/5f161171609b3b69dd15acf6/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
IEEJ
© 2
019
1
Key points of this report
While global oil demand in 2019 was 100.3 million b/d, total supply was 100.2 million b/d, comprising non-OPEC production of 64.4 million b/d and OPEC production of 35.8 million b/d, partly due to a decline in production in Iran, Venezuela, and other countries. On the other hand, although supply pressure is expected to increase by 2020 due to an increase in non-OPEC production particularly in the United States, demand and supply will be balanced at a level of about 101 million b/d to 102 million b/d through OPEC-plus adjustments.
Based on the abovementioned premise of demand and supply balance, and if the impact of geopolitical risks and other factors are not taken into consideration, Brent prices are expected to move in the range of $60 – 70/bbl on the average for the second half of 2019. The price level will remain generally the same in 2020, and prices will remain low within a range of fluctuation. The main factors that can cause significant changes to this price outlook include supply disruptions and geopolitical risks such as tensions surrounding the Iran situation, which could lead to an increase in prices, and macroeconomic risks such as intensification of the U.S.-China trade war, which could cause prices to drop. In the high-price scenario with emerging geopolitical risks, prices are expected to reach the high level of $15/bbl from the standard level; in the low-price scenario with growing macroeconomic risks, prices are expected to reach a low of $10/bbl from the standard level.
![Page 3: Outlook of the International Oil Situationeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8618.pdf · vehicle sales volume slowed down, falling by 0.9 million units (13.0%) year -on-year in the second quarter](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011903/5f161171609b3b69dd15acf6/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
IEEJ
© 2
019
Oil demand: Sluggish growth
Demand for the second quarter of 2019 increased by 0.8 million b/d (0.8%) year-on-year to 99.6 million b/d. Growth in demand has slowed down due to the sluggish growth of the global economy, but is expected to increase
from the second half of 2019. 2
Demand Changes in demand (Year-on-year comparison)
Source: IEA “Oil Market Report”
0
20
40
60
80
100
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q
2016 2017 2018 2019
その他
中東
他アジア
中国
OECDアジアオセアニア
OECD欧州
OECD米州
mb/d
-1
0
1
2
3
1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q
2016 2017 2018 2019
mb/d
その他
中東
他アジア
中国
OECDアジアオセアニア
OECD欧州
OECD米州
Other
Middle East
Other, Asia
China
OECDAsia, Oceania
OECD Europe
OECD Americas
Other
Middle East
Other, Asia
China
OECDAsia, Oceania
OECD Europe
OECD Americas
![Page 4: Outlook of the International Oil Situationeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8618.pdf · vehicle sales volume slowed down, falling by 0.9 million units (13.0%) year -on-year in the second quarter](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011903/5f161171609b3b69dd15acf6/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
IEEJ
© 2
019
Oil supply: Fall in OPEC production despite increase in production in North America
Production volume for the second quarter of 2019 increased by 0.8 million b/d (0.8%) year-on-year to 100.1 million b/d. Despite the increase in production in North America, average production for 2019 remained at the level of 100.2 million b/d
due to coordinated production cuts since January and other factors. 3
Production volume Changes in production volume (Year-on-year comparison)
Source: IEA “Oil Market Report”
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q
2016 2017 2018 2019
その他
OPEC
アフリカ
中南米
中国
旧ソ連
OECDアジアオセアニア
OECD欧州
OECD米州
mb/d
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q
2016 2017 2018 2019
mb/d その他
OPEC
アフリカ
中南米
中国
旧ソ連
OECDアジアオセアニアOECD欧州
OECD米州
Other
Africa
Central and South America
China
OECDAsia, Oceania
OECD Europe
OECD Americas
Former Soviet Union
Other
Africa
Central and South America
China
OECDAsia, Oceania
OECD Europe
OECD Americas
Former Soviet Union
OPEC OPEC
![Page 5: Outlook of the International Oil Situationeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8618.pdf · vehicle sales volume slowed down, falling by 0.9 million units (13.0%) year -on-year in the second quarter](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011903/5f161171609b3b69dd15acf6/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
IEEJ
© 2
019
Coordinated production cuts by OPEC-plus: Stronger efforts to cut production since January
Due to stronger efforts to cut production, the production volume of OPEC-plus countries in the first quarter of 2019 fell significantly by 2.3 million b/d (4.2%) year-on year to 54.5 million b/d.
Qatar’s withdrawal from OPEC and fall in production accompanying economic sanctions on Iran and Venezuela are also reasons for the fall in production. 4
Production volume
Source: IEA “Oil Market Report”, OPEC “Monthly Oil Market Report”
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q
2016 2017 2018 2019
OPEC 非OPEC減産参加国
mb/d
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q
2016 2017 2018 2019
OPEC 非OPEC減産参加国
mb/d
Changes in production volume (Year-on-year comparison)
Non-OPEC countries participating in production cut
Non-OPEC countries participating in production cut
OPECOPEC
![Page 6: Outlook of the International Oil Situationeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8618.pdf · vehicle sales volume slowed down, falling by 0.9 million units (13.0%) year -on-year in the second quarter](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011903/5f161171609b3b69dd15acf6/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
IEEJ
© 2
019
OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting: Coordinated production cuts to be extended by 9 months
With the renewal of the production cut agreement, it is expected that full compliance will continue to be attained. This agreement was decided on substantively in a meeting between President Putin and Crown Prince Mohammad at
the G20 Summit despite opposition from Iran, and with the adoption of the Cooperation Charter as well, drew attention to the deepening relationship between Russia and OPEC. 5
Press conference after the meetingSource: OPEC HP
Developments surrounding coordinated production cuts
Sep 2016
Dec 2016
Jun 2017Nov 2017
Spring 2018Jun 2018
Nov 2018Dec 2018
Jan 2019May 2019
Extraordinary Meeting of the OPEC Conference, agreement on production cut policyAgreement on coordinated production cuts of 1.8 million b/d, based on“Declaration of Cooperation.” 6 countries including Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic ties with QatarExtension of coordinated production cuts till end of 2018Realization of demand-supply rebalance (average level for past 5 years)Agreement to ease production cuts (response to sanctions on Iran, etc.)Embargo on import of oil produced in Iran (8 countries excluded)Agreement to cut production by 1.2 million b/d (from actual production in October)Qatar withdraws from OPEC/Conflict in VenezuelaIntensification of U-S.-Iran confrontation, suspension of exclusion from import embargo
[Main agreements reached at OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (July 2)]1. Extension of agreement on production cut (Dec 2018) for nine months till end of
March 20202. Adoption of Cooperation Charter on the framework of OPEC-plus3. Next meeting to be held on December 6, 2019 (OPEC General Meeting on
December 5)
![Page 7: Outlook of the International Oil Situationeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8618.pdf · vehicle sales volume slowed down, falling by 0.9 million units (13.0%) year -on-year in the second quarter](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011903/5f161171609b3b69dd15acf6/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
IEEJ
© 2
019
Iran’s oil exports: Possibility of further reduction
Exports increased temporarily in the first quarter of 2019, mainly to Japan and ROK, due to the temporary stay on the embargo on oil imports from Iran.
Production volume of 2.4 million b/d and exports falling to 0.8 million b/d in May 2019? Possibility of further reduction. 6
Source: Prepared based on Trade Statistics and MEES
0
1
2
3
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 4
2016 2017 2018 2019
中国 インド 日本 韓国 台湾 トルコ EU
mb/d
China India Japan ROK Taiwan Turkey EU
![Page 8: Outlook of the International Oil Situationeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8618.pdf · vehicle sales volume slowed down, falling by 0.9 million units (13.0%) year -on-year in the second quarter](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011903/5f161171609b3b69dd15acf6/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
IEEJ
© 2
019
Oil demand and supply in the U.S.: Trend of continued increase in production
Production volume for the first quarter of 2019 increased by 1.6 million b/d (15.7%) year-on-year to 11.8 million b/d, while demand increased by 0.1 million b/d (0.5%) year-on-year to 20.3 million b/d.
EIA predicts an increase in production of 1.4 million b/d from 2018 to 2019. 7
Source: EIA statistics, Baker Hughes “North America Rig Count”
Production volume/No. of rigs in operation Demand by product
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
シェールオイル 在来型 リグ稼働数
mb/d リグ稼働数
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 4
2016 2017 2018 2019
LPG 石化原料 ガソリン ジェット 軽油 重油 その他
mb/d
Shale oil Conventional No. of rigs in operationPetrochemical
materialsGasoline Jet fuel Diesel Fuel oil Other
No. of rigs in operation
LPG
![Page 9: Outlook of the International Oil Situationeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8618.pdf · vehicle sales volume slowed down, falling by 0.9 million units (13.0%) year -on-year in the second quarter](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011903/5f161171609b3b69dd15acf6/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
IEEJ
© 2
019
China’s oil demand: Signs of a slowdown
Demand for the first quarter of 2019 increased by 0.6 million b/d (5.0%) year-on-year to 13.1 million b/d. New vehicle sales volume slowed down, falling by 0.9 million units (13.0%) year-on-year in the second quarter of 2019 to 6 million units.
The pace of demand growth is expected to fall as a result of a slowdown in economic growth. 8
Source: APEC “EGEDA Database”, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers statistics
New vehicle sales volumeDemand by product
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2016 2017 2018 2019
LPG ガソリン 灯油 軽油 重油 その他
mb/d
0
2
4
6
8
10
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2016 2017 2018 2019
他乗用車 SUV 商用車
100万台
Gasoline Kerosene DieselFuel oil Other
Other passenger vehicles
Commercial vehicles
LPG SUV
Million units
![Page 10: Outlook of the International Oil Situationeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8618.pdf · vehicle sales volume slowed down, falling by 0.9 million units (13.0%) year -on-year in the second quarter](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011903/5f161171609b3b69dd15acf6/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
IEEJ
© 2
019
U.S.-China trade war and oil trade between the two countries
In the first quarter of 2019, among China’s crude oil imports, the volume of crude oil imported from the U.S. fell significantlyfrom 4% in the previous year to 0.1%. Among U.S. crude oil exports, the volume exported to China fell dramatically from 23.4%in the previous year to 2.9%. China is moving forward on switching mainly to Saudi Arabia as its alternative supplier, while theU.S. is moving forward on switching to ROK and other countries as its alternative supply destination.
If the trade friction between the U.S. and China intensifies or becomes prolonged, it could also have an impact on other economies, and possibly bring about a decline in demand and give rise to the risk of pushing down prices.
9
Source: EIA statistics, China OGP, OPEC statistics
China’s crude oil imports U.S. crude oil exports
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 4-5
2016 2017 2018 2019
サウジアラビア イラン他中東 アフリカ欧州・旧ソ連 米国他米州 アジア・オセアニア
mb/d
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 4
2016 2017 2018 2019
日本 韓国 中国 その他アジア 米州 欧州 その他
mb/d
Saudi Arabia
Other, Middle East
Europe, former Soviet Union
Other, Americas
Iran
Africa
United States
Asia, Oceania Japan ROK China Other, Asia Americas Europe Other
![Page 11: Outlook of the International Oil Situationeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8618.pdf · vehicle sales volume slowed down, falling by 0.9 million units (13.0%) year -on-year in the second quarter](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011903/5f161171609b3b69dd15acf6/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
IEEJ
© 2
019
Inventory: Marginally above the average for the past five years
OECD commercial inventory level in May 2018 increased to a level marginally above that of the average of the past five year.
Despite increase in production by the United States, production cuts by OECD-plus and other factors may contribute to a fall in inventory level in the second half of 2019. 10
Source: IEA “Oil Market Report”
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2014-2018レンジ 2014-2018平均 2010-2014平均 2018 2019
mb
2014-2018 range 2014-2018 average 2010-2014 average 2018 2019
![Page 12: Outlook of the International Oil Situationeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8618.pdf · vehicle sales volume slowed down, falling by 0.9 million units (13.0%) year -on-year in the second quarter](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011903/5f161171609b3b69dd15acf6/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
IEEJ
© 2
019
Forecast of GDP growth rate: Slowdown in 2019, slight recovery in 2020
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2017 2018 2019 2020
世界 米国 ユーロ圏 中国 日本
成長率
11
According to IMF’s forecast for GDP growth, a slowdown is predicted across the board for 2019, with global growth rate at 3.3% (against 3.6% in the previous year). This is expected to recover slightly in 2020 at 3.5%.
IMF’s forecast for global growth in 2019 was revised downward from the October 2018 forecast of 3.7%.
Growth rate
World U.S. Eurozone China Japan
![Page 13: Outlook of the International Oil Situationeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8618.pdf · vehicle sales volume slowed down, falling by 0.9 million units (13.0%) year -on-year in the second quarter](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011903/5f161171609b3b69dd15acf6/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
IEEJ
© 2
019
Financial markets
Both oil prices and stock prices recovered with the decrease in risk aversion, and U.S. stock prices hit a record high on July 15.
U.S. dollar is moving within a relatively low range due to expectations of a cut in U.S. interest rates. 12
Source: FRB statistics
Oil prices and stock prices Oil prices and exchange rates
14,00015,00016,00017,00018,00019,00020,00021,00022,00023,00024,00025,00026,00027,00028,00029,000
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-
16Ap
r-16
Jul-1
6Oc
t-16
Jan-
17Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7Oc
t-17
Jan-
18Ap
r-18
Jul-1
8Oc
t-18
Jan-
19Ap
r-19
Jul-1
9
WTI Dow 30
$/bbl $
100
105
110
115
120
125
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-
16Ap
r-16
Jul-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-17
Apr-
17Ju
l-17
Oct
-17
Jan-
18Ap
r-18
Jul-1
8O
ct-1
8Ja
n-19
Apr-
19Ju
l-19
WTI 米ドルインデックス
$/bbl 米ドルインデックス
U.S. Dollar Index
U.S. Dollar Index
![Page 14: Outlook of the International Oil Situationeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8618.pdf · vehicle sales volume slowed down, falling by 0.9 million units (13.0%) year -on-year in the second quarter](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011903/5f161171609b3b69dd15acf6/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
IEEJ
© 2
019
The net long range for non-commercial traders recovered slightly after the start of the year, but resumed the downward trend once again. 13
Source: CFTC, ICE
WTI Brent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-1000000
-500000
0
500000
1000000
2016年
1月
2016年
4月
2016年
7月
2016年
10月
2017年
1月
2017年
4月
2017年
7月
2017年
10月
2018年
1月
2018年
4月
2018年
7月
2018年
10月
2019年
1月
2019年
4月
2019年
7月
非当業者ネットロング 当業者ネットショート WTI価格
契約枚数 WTI価格 ($/bbl)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-800000
-600000
-400000
-200000
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
Jan-
16
Apr-
16
Jul-1
6
Oct-
16
Jan-
17
Apr-
17
Jul-1
7
Oct-
17
Jan-
18
Apr-
18
Jul-1
8
Oct-
18
Jan-
19
Apr-
19
Jul-1
9
非当業者ネットロング 当業者ネットショート
Brent価格 非当業者ネットロング
当業者ネットショート Brent価格
契約枚数 Brent価格 ($/bbl)契約枚数 Brent価格 ($/bbl)
Futures position
WTI prices ($/bbl)No. of contracts No. of contracts Brent prices ($/bbl)
Non-commercial traders net long
Commercial traders net short
WTI prices
Non-commercial traders net long
Brent prices
Commercial traders net short
Commercial traders net shortNon-commercial traders net long
Brent prices
Jan-
16
Apr
-16
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan-
17
Apr
-17
Jul-1
7
Oct
-17
Jan-
18
Apr
-18
Jul-1
8
Oct
-18
Jan-
19
Apr
-19 Jul-1
9
![Page 15: Outlook of the International Oil Situationeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8618.pdf · vehicle sales volume slowed down, falling by 0.9 million units (13.0%) year -on-year in the second quarter](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011903/5f161171609b3b69dd15acf6/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
IEEJ
© 2
019
For 2019, average demand was 100.3 million b/d and average supply was 100.2 million b/d. For 2020, demand and supply are expected to reach a balance at an average level of 101 million b/d to 102 million b/d.
Although there was a slight tightening in the second half of 2019 due to factors such as the coordinated production cuts, there is a possibility of a balance in the first half of 2020 due to increased production by the U.S. and other factors.
14
Forecast of demand-supply balance: Slight tightening in the second half of 2019
9092949698
100102104
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2017 2018 2019 2020
需要
供給
mb/d -2-101234
需給バランス
mb/d
Demand-supply balance
Demand
Supply
![Page 16: Outlook of the International Oil Situationeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8618.pdf · vehicle sales volume slowed down, falling by 0.9 million units (13.0%) year -on-year in the second quarter](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011903/5f161171609b3b69dd15acf6/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
IEEJ
© 2
019
International crude oil prices (Brent) are expected to be at the level of $60 – 70 in the second half of 2019. The price level is expected to remain generally the same in 2020, with prices staying at a low level within a range of fluctuation.
The main elements of uncertainty include geopolitical risks such as the heightening of tensions surrounding the Iran situation, disruptions to supply, and macroeconomic risks such as the intensification of the U.S.-China trade war. 15
Forecast of crude oil prices: $60 – 70 for the second half of 2019
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan
16Ma
r 16
May 1
6Ju
l 16
Sep
16No
v 16
Jan
17Ma
r 17
May 1
7Ju
l 17
Sep
17No
v 17
Jan
18Ma
r 18
May 1
8Ju
l 18
Sep
18No
v 18
Jan
19Ma
r 19
May 1
9Ju
l 19
Sep
19No
v 19
Jan
20Ma
r 20
May 2
0Ju
l 20
Sep
20No
v 20
$/bbl
WTI ブレント ドバイ
米減産 米増産
OPECプラス協調減産
イラン核制裁解除
米、イラン核合意離脱、ベネズエラに追加制裁
イラン石油制裁適用除外終了
米利上げ
減産延長?
米大統領選挙
世界経済減速?
Brent Dubai
U.S. cuts production U.S. increases production
Coordinated production cuts by OPEC-plus Extension of coordinated production cuts?
U.S. withdraws from Iran nuclear deal, imposes additional sanctions on Venezuela
End of exclusions for Iran oil sanctions
U.S. presidential elections
Lifting of Iran nuclear sanctions
U.S. increases interest rate
Deceleration in global economy?
![Page 17: Outlook of the International Oil Situationeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8618.pdf · vehicle sales volume slowed down, falling by 0.9 million units (13.0%) year -on-year in the second quarter](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011903/5f161171609b3b69dd15acf6/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
IEEJ
© 2
019
East-West PipelineLength: Approx. 1200kmCapacity: 5 million BDBarrels per day: 2.1 million BD
High-price scenario: Heightened geopolitical risks
Abu Dhabi PipelineLength: Approx. 370kmCapacity: 1.5 million BDBarrels per day: 0.6 million BD
Recent confrontation between U.S. and Iran
Jul 2015May 2018Aug 2018Nov 2018
Apr 2019
May 2, 2019
May 5, 2019
May 8, 2019
May 12, 2019May 14, 2019May 24, 2019
Jun 13, 2019Jun 20, 2019Jun 24, 2019
Iran nuclear deal enactedU.S. announces withdrawal from nuclear dealResumption of economic sanctions on IranEnforcement of oil import embargo postponed for 180 daysIslamic Revolutionary Guard Corps recognized as terrorist organizationPostponement of oil import embargo enforcement cancelled U.S. military dispatches aircraft carriers and bombersIran partially suspends fulfilment of nuclear dealFour tankers explode off the coast of FujairahAttacks on Saudi pipelineIncreased dispatch of 1,500 personnel from U.S, militaryTwo tankers explode on the Gulf of OmanIran shoots down U.S. droneU.S. strengthens sanctions on Iran
Attention drawn to explosions not at the Strait of Hormuz, but near the exit and the bypass pipeline. Although it is difficult to imagine that the Iranian government would block the strait, in the high-price scenario in which geopolitical risks emerge, such as concerns of a military clash caused by incidental events, prices are expected to reach the high level of $15/B.
May 14
May 12
Jun 13
Strait of Hormuz
Strait of Hormuz:World’s largest strategic point for oil transportation
21 million barrels/day of oil being transported (2018)Approx. 80% of Japan’s oil imports pass through
![Page 18: Outlook of the International Oil Situationeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8618.pdf · vehicle sales volume slowed down, falling by 0.9 million units (13.0%) year -on-year in the second quarter](https://reader031.vdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022011903/5f161171609b3b69dd15acf6/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
IEEJ
© 2
019
17
Low-price scenario: Heightened macroeconomic risks
【Main macroeconomic risks】1 U.S-China trade war
Concerns of intensification and prolonging of the situation; resolution is expected to taketime.The Chinese economy is already showing signs of a slowdown, with sluggish growth inoil demand.Going forward, there are concerns of significant impact on the economies of relatedcountries such as Japan, ROK, and EU.
1 BrexitBrexit will have an impact not only on the British economy, but on the overall economyof Europe.In particular, Europe’s economy will be thrown into a state of confusion in the event of a“no-deal Brexit.”
【Downward revision of global oil demand】EIA short-term forecast (June):Growth for 2019 at 1.4 million BD year-on-year⇒1.2 million BDIEA Oil Market Report (June) :Growth for 2019 at 1.3 million BD year-on-year⇒1.1 million BDDownward revision for two consecutive months, 1.4 million BDuntil the April report
【Downward revision of forecast of crude oilprices】EIA short-term forecast (June): Brent
3rd quarter $73/B⇒$67/B4th quarter $70/B⇒$68/B
Bank of America Merrill Lynch (Jun 14) :Brent
Second half of 2019$68/B⇒$63/B
In the low-price scenario with heightened macroeconomic risks, prices are expected to reach the low level of $10/B.
Contact :[email protected]