Outlook of Ultrabooks, Tablets and Smartphones

Mobile Forum Taiwan 2012

Michael WangMacronix Int’l

Tables of Contents

• Mobile Device Trends

• Impacts to NAND Storage & Mobile-DRAM

• Market Forecast for Ultrabooks, Tablets & Smartphones

• Memory IC Forecast and Opportunities

• Take-Away Messages

The Mobile Era

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

Mobile Internet

Wired Internet

PC

Minicomputer

Mainframe

1MM+ Units

10MM+ Units

100MM+ Units

1B+ Units / Users

10B+ Units ??

Devices / Users (MM in Log Scale)

Computing Growth Drivers Over Time, 1960-2020(E)

(Source: Morgan Stanley Research, 2011)

Increasing Integration

10X more devices

More than just phones

SmartphoneTabletUltrabookPDACar electronicsMobile gamesHome appliances…

Trends and TransitionsMulti-persons One-device to One-person Multi-devices

One-person One-device One-person Multi-devicesMulti-persons One-device

Mobile Telephone

Analog Telephone

Mobile Devices

Source: Gartner,2012 March

Consumer Usage Patterns for Different Devices

Mobile Market Trends

Apps

Search

Multi-tasking

Video

Social

Mobile Data Traffic

• 3G/4G subscriber growth

• Mobile devices booming

• Higher speed broadband

connectivity

• Shifting to cloud computing0.6

1.32.4

4.26.9

10.8Exabytes (1018) per month of mobile data traffic

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Source: Cisco data, Macquarie Research, 2012 March

Trends driving mobile data

Tables of Contents

• Mobile Device Trends

• Impacts to NAND Storage & Mobile-DRAM

• Market Forecast for Ultrabooks, Tablets & Smartphones

• Memory IC Forecast and Opportunities

• Take-Away Messages

Mobile Storage - What’s Desired

Size:Thinner & Lighter

Size:Thinner & Lighter

Response:Instant on

Response:Instant on

Reliability:Fit application smartly

Reliability:Fit application smartly

Cost Down(As always)Cost Down(As always)

Power:Longer battery life

Power:Longer battery life

Density:Continue scaling

Density:Continue scaling

NAND Mobile Storage Trend

eMMC 4.352MHzBootSleep

eMMC 4.4eMMC 4.41DDRMultiple partitionTrimHPI

eMMC4.5HS200RTCPacked commandSanitize commandData tag

USF 1.03Gbps

UFS 2.06Gbps

2008 2009 2010 2011

Bandwidth &

Functionality

Mobile DRAM - What’s DesiredHigher BandwidthHigher Bandwidth

MobilityMobilityMiniaturizationMiniaturization

Higher DensityHigher Density

Graphics performance & high resolution display

User applications &Multi-tasking

Thinner & Lighter Always on / always connectedLower power/longer battery life

Source: Elpida

Mobile-DRAM Trend

Mobile Packaging Trend• From discrete CSP to stack forms

– PoP (Package-on-Package)– MCP (Multi-Chip Package)

• Next revolution– 3D: 3D-NAND– TSV (Through Silicon Via): Wide-IO

Tables of Contents

• Mobile Device Trends

• Impacts to NAND Storage & Mobile-DRAM

• Market Forecast for Ultrabooks, Tablets & Smartphones

• Memory IC Forecast and Opportunities

• Take-Away Messages

Major Mobile Devices Forecast

• CAGR 2011-2016 Forecast:

--- Smartphone 21% --- Tablet 39%

--- Ultrabook (from 2012) 59% --- NB 12%

455

626

794

947

10811179

65124

197250 285 311

2 19 35 66 91 121195 209 236 266 302 337

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f)

Mill

ion

units

Smartphone Tablet

Ultrabook NB

Source: Multiple market research companies; organized by Macronix marketing,2012 July.

Storage & Mobile Memory Interface

Smartphone Tablet Ultrabook

Storage NANDeMMC

NANDeMMCSSD

SSDDual-Drive

Hybrid-HDD

DRAM LPDDR LPDDRDDR

LPDDRDDR

Platform ARM+AndriodARM+iOS

ARM+iOSARM+Andriod

WintelWoA(ARM+Win8)?

Wintel

Ultrabook Market Forecast

0

20

40

60

80

100

Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f)0

20

40

60

80

100

Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f)

Hybrid HDD

Dual-Drives

SSDs

Ultrabook Shipments (Millions) Ultrabook Shipment by Storage

Source: IDC, 2012

Tablet Market Forecast

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f)0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f)

256GB

128GB

64GB

32GB

16GB

8GB

4GB

2GB

Tablet Shipments (Millions) Tablet Storage Density Mix

Source: IHS iSuppli, 2012 March

Mobile Phone Market Forecast

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f)

ULC Entry FeatureFull Feature Low End SmartphoneMid to High End Smartphone

Uni

t: M

illion

Source: IHS iSuppli, 2012 March

686

493

Smartphone652596542484409

429351252142

46

Tables of Contents

• Mobile Device Trends

• Impacts to NAND Storage & Mobile-DRAM

• Market Forecast for Ultrabooks, Tablets & Smartphones

• Memory IC Forecast and Opportunities

• Take-Away Messages

Overall Semiconductor Revenue by End-Use

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f)

Source: Gartner, 2012/03

US$ Billions

CAGR

Others 3%

Industrial 7%

Automotive 8%

Consumer -1%

Flash Card & USB -2%

Communication (ex phones) 4%

Smartphone 16%

Non-Smartphone -17%

SSD 30%

Tablets 32%

Sever/Workstation 11%

PC 3%

Memory IC Historical Data (2007-2011)Memory Revenue & Unit Shipment by Technology

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Y07 Y08 Y09 Y10 Y11 0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Y07 Y08 Y09 Y10 Y11

Million US$

Million units

Source: WSTS

Memory IC Market Forecast (2011-2015)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f)

US

$ M

illio

n Other Memory

ROM & EPROM

NAND Flash

NOR Flash

SRAM

DRAM

Source: WSTS 2012/05 Spring Forecast Update

Memory Content Forecast for Ultrabooks

3.74.3

5.5

6.6

7.68.3

0

2

4

6

8

10

Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f)

73

111

136156

187

234

0

50

100

150

200

250

Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f)

DRAM Content (GB) per device NAND Content (GB) per device

Source: BofA, Merrill Lynch; organized by Macronix marketing, 2012 July

Memory Content Forecast for Tablets

0.5

1.1

1.9

3.1

4.2

4.8

0

1

2

3

4

5

Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f)

2429

42

51

59

79

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f)

DRAM Content (GB) per device NAND Content (GB) per device

Source: BofA, Merrill Lynch; organized by Macronix marketing,2012 July

Memory Content Forecast for Smartphones

0.40.6

0.9

1.2

1.6

2.1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f)

DRAM Content (GB) per device

79

11

14

1819

0

5

10

15

20

Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f)

Embedded NAND Content (GB) per device

Source: IHS iSuppli, 2012 March

Tables of Contents

• Mobile Device Trends

• Impacts to NAND Storage & Mobile-DRAM

• Market Forecast for Ultrabooks, Tablets & Smartphones

• Memory IC Forecast and Opportunities

• Take-Away Messages

Take-Away Messages• Killer mobile usages and industry focus are fueling

the exciting growth of mobile devices– Smartphone ~1,000M units (forecast of 2015)– Tablet ~300M units– Ultrabook ~100M units

• Behind the mobile device success, NAND storage and mobile-DRAM solutions are key enablers

• Many active JEDEC members are jointly creating future memory standards, to enable the market acceptance and ultimately benefit all eco-system industries– eMMC, UFS, SSD– LPDDR3, Wide-IO

Thank You !

Mobile Forum Taiwan 2012

Michael WangMacronix Int’l