Strategic Enrollment Management in the Age of Austerity: Managing Recruitment, Revenue,

and Access in Challenging Economic TimesAACRAO SEM Conference

Chicago, ILTuesday, November 11, 2013

Randall Langston, Assistant Vice President for Enrollment Management Jamie Scheid, Enrollment Analyst

Enrollment Management and Student Affairs&

Research, Analysis, & Planning

Overview• Demographic Background • Market Drivers and Fiscal Information• Strategy #1 Investment in EM Positions and Re-

organization • Strategy #2 Expanding the Funnel • Strategy #3 Financial Aid Leveraging• Strategy #4 Retention and Graduation

Demographic Information

Total US Population 2010-2050

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/demographics-in-america-in-2050-2012-10?op=1

The United States of America in 2050

• If current trends continue, the population of the United States will rise to 438 million in 2050, from 296 million in 2005, and 82% of the increase will be due to immigrants arriving from 2005 to 2050 and their U.S.-born descendants, according to new projections developed by the Pew Research Center.

• Of the 117 million people added to the population during this period due to the effect of new immigration, 67 million will be the immigrants themselves and 50 million will be their U.S.-born children or grandchildren.

• The Latino population, already the nation’s largest minority group, will triple in size and will account for most of the nation’s population growth from 2005 through 2050. Hispanics will make up 29% of the U.S. population in 2050, compared with 14% in 2005.

• The non-Hispanic white population will increase more slowly than other racial and ethnic groups; whites will become a minority (47%) by 2050.

http://pewsocialtrends.org/files/2010/10/85.pdf

So where will everyone live? In these 11 emerging "megaregions," economies become so interdependent that they form larger

distinct entities

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/demographics-in-america-in-2050-2012-10?op=1

Net Regional US Migration

Projected change in the number of high school graduates 2009-10 to 2019-20

Source: The Chronicle of Higher Education – Almanac issue 2009-10, Page 6 http://chronicle.texterity.com/chronicle/almanac200910/?pg=6#pg6

What Does the Data Tell us about Population Demographics?

• Two-thirds of the country is facing some level of decline in number of high school graduates ranging from negligible to significant

• Northeast, Upper Midwest, and some areas of the Southeast are experiencing large numbers of population decline as the population shifts to the Southwest, Pacific Northwest, and Western USA.

• From 2000 to 2010, regional growth was much faster for the South and West (14.3 and 13.8 percent, respectively) than for the Midwest (3.9 percent) and Northeast (3.2 percent)*

• Nevada was the fastest-growing state between 2000 and 2010, growing by 35.1 percent. It was followed by Arizona (24.6 percent), Utah (23.8 percent), Idaho (21.1 percent), and Texas (20.6 percent)*

• Rhode Island, Louisiana, and Ohio were the slowest-increasing states, all of which grew by less than 2.0 percent*

*Source: US Census 2010 – US Dept. of Commerce

Demographic Data 2013 to 2027-28Major Metropolitan Areas

• White non-Hispanic public high-school graduates in the 25 metropolitan areas are projected to decline 17 percent, compared with a 12-percent drop for the nation.

• Black non-Hispanic public high-school graduates in the metropolitan areas are projected to decline 13 percent, compared with a 9-percent drop for the nation.

• The number of Hispanic public high-school graduates is projected to increase by 41 percent for the nation by 2019-20, but by 34 percent for the 25 metropolitan areas.

• The number of Asian/Pacific Islander public high-school graduates is projected to increase by 30 percent nationally by 2019-20, compared with a 23-percent rise for the metropolitan areas.

Source: Projections of High School Graduates by Sex and for Major Metropolitan Areas October 2013 - Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education - http://www.wiche.edu/info/knocking-8th/supplement/KnockingOct13Full.pdf

Latino(a) Population Demographics

Latino(a) Population Demographics

Latino(a) Population Demographics

Latino(a) Population Demographics

Population by Race and Ethnicity

Where We Are GoingDemographic Picture in NYS

• Between 2008 and 2019, the number of high school graduates (public and private) in New York State is likely to decrease by 16.5% due to actual declines observed now by grade level in the state’s schools.

• New York has been losing more population than any other state from migration between the states. Net domestic migration between 2000 and 2008 was -1,575,864 residents or 8.3% of the 2000 population.

• During the same period, net domestic migration losses were partially offset by international immigration totaling 877,000 individuals (4.6%). This was second in the nation with only California experiencing more immigration from other nations.

Source: NYSED Office of Research and Information Systems, 2003

Where We Are Going?Demographic Picture in NYS

Projections differ by race/ethnicity. Statewide, substantial decreases are projected for Blacks and Whites while increases are projected for Hispanics and Asians:• -28% NYS Blacks• -22% NYS Whites• +4% NYS Hispanics• +15% NYS AsiansSource: NYSED Office of Research and Information Systems, 2003

Where We Are Going?Racial/Ethnic Projections

2008-2018Racial/ethnic group projections look quite different when split by region of the state (NYCvs. ROS), primarily due to different population migration patterns and birth rates in eachregion. Net migration out of NYC for some racial/ethnic school-aged populations probablyaccounts for considerable in-migration by the same group into the rest of the State (ROS).The following groups are ranked from the greatest projected decreases to projectedincreases:

-37% NYC Blacks -24% ROS Whites (Rest of the State)

-20% NYC Hispanics -12% ROS Blacks -10% NYC Whites - 1% NYC Asians +47% ROS Asians +53% ROS Hispanics

(American Indian counts were too low to provide statistically valid projections.)

Source: NYSED Office of Research and Information Systems, 2003

First Year Minority % as part of the Brockport Overall Freshman Class

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

10.6

9.89.1

8.3

6.26.8

7.8

8.9

10 9.99.6

10.5

13.513.8

15.3

17.2

1998-2012 First Year Minority (%)

Year

Min

ority

%

Population Demographics in the State of New York

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

145,000

155,000

165,000

175,000

185,000

195,000

205,000

NYS High School GraduatesActual & Projected / Public & Non-public

Actuals 1994 - 2004 Projections 2005 - 2016

NYS 12th Grade Enrollment Totals % White vs. % Students of Color

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1976

-77

1978

-79

1980

-81

1982

-83

1984

-85

1986

-87

1988

-89

1990

-91

1992

-93

1994

-95

1996

-97

1998

-99

2000

-01

2002

-03

2004

-05

% White % Students of Color

Projected Change in NYS High School Graduates 2008 to 2019 Rank Ordered - Change '08 to '19 by County

-39.2% ORLEANS -21.3% CHAUTAUQUA -15.9% YATES-36.2% OTSEGO -20.9% NIAGARA -15.0% HERKIMER -33.8% SENECA -20.9% FRANKLIN -15.0% PUTNAM -30.0% DELAWARE -20.9% TIOGA -14.6% NASSAU-29.9% GENESEE -20.8% CHEMUNG -14.0% ONTARIO-29.3% CLINTON -20.4% BROOME -13.2% ST. LAWRENCE-28.1% ESSEX -20.2% TOMPKINS -13.2% DUTCHESS-28.1% GREENE -20.1% OSWEGO -12.8% RENSSELAER-28.0% CATTARAUGUS -20.0% ONEIDA -12.7% HAMILTON -27.5% LIVINGSTON -20.0% MADISON -12.4% ALLEGANY -27.2% CAYUGA -19.9% ULSTER -12.3% SUFFOLK -27.2% WAYNE -19.8% NYC counties -9.0% JEFFERSON -26.0% COLUMBIA -19.6% LEWIS -8.5% SARATOGA-24.8% CHENANGO -19.2% SCHOHARIE -6.3% FULTON -23.0% CORTLAND -18.9% ONONDAGA -5.4% SCHENECTADY-23.0% STEUBEN -17.9% MONTGOMERY -4.0% WESTCHESTER -22.8% WARREN -17.7% ERIE -2.7% SULLIVAN -22.5% WYOMING -16.4% ALBANY 0.2% ROCKLAND -22.4% MONROE -16.2% WASHINGTON .5% ORANGE

Source: NYSED, Office of Research and Information Systems, December 2008.

Population Cluster Growth Analysis for The College at Brockport

Demographics Question:

While some states are doing better from a demographic perspective than others, are

conversations occurring on your campuses dealing with changing and/or declining demographics and

how are you responding?

How is The College at Brockport Responding to Demographic shifts?

• Understand and make sense of the data!!!• After making sense of the data, reconcile

that with what you are attempting to understand (phenomenon)

• Game Plan? How do you plan to put this into action?

• Implement - We have the data, now lets act upon it

• Assess the data

NYS Public HS Graduates 2006-2014

2006-07 Actual

2007-08 Actual

2008-09 Actual

2009-10 Actual

2010-11 Actual

2011-12 Actual

2012-13 Projection*

2013-14 Projection*

% Change '12 to '14

GRAND TOTAL - All NYS 163927 174443 180154 183578 182504 180807 181817 174347 -3.6%Region 1: Buffalo 15347 16305 16219 16346 15729 15580 14819 14443 -7.3%Region 2: Rochester 10658 11330 11191 11475 11549 10806 10382 9876 -8.6%Region 3: Syracuse 11903 12433 12598 12542 12297 11961 11618 11144 -6.8%Region 4: North Country 6279 6580 6808 6639 6638 6697 6146 5981 -10.7%Region 5: Catskills 6255 6481 6626 6418 6447 6313 5946 5572 -11.7%Region 6: Albany 12830 13185 13530 13707 13527 13273 12774 12237 -7.8%Region 7A: Mid-Hudson 20931 21814 22191 22427 22890 22234 21983 21180 -4.7%Region 7B: NYC Boroughs 47030 52375 56377 58896 59052 59000 63600 59854 1.4%Region 7C: Long Island 32694 33940 34614 35128 34375 34943 34549 34060 -2.5%

*NOTE: Numbers may not add up due to rounding.

2006-07 Actual

2007-08 Actual

2008-09 Actual

2009-10 Actual

2010-11 Actual

2011-12 Actual

2012-13 Projection*

2013-14 Projection*

% Change '12 to '14

GRAND TOTAL - All NYS N/A 64866 65331 N/A 63834 64632 62997 62146 -3.8%Region 1: Buffalo N/A 6469 6051 N/A 5742 5682 5581 5424 -4.5%Region 2: Rochester N/A 3842 3869 N/A 3951 3607 3579 3378 -6.3%Region 3: Syracuse N/A 4191 3997 N/A 3975 3733 3781 3625 -2.9%Region 4: North Country N/A 2114 2039 N/A 1963 1966 1851 1804 -8.2%Region 5: Catskills N/A 2096 2150 N/A 2066 1913 1891 1774 -7.3%Region 6: Albany N/A 4069 4225 N/A 3918 4014 3949 3750 -6.6%Region 7A: Mid-Hudson N/A 7805 8097 N/A 7976 7699 7769 7518 -2.4%Region 7B: NYC Boroughs N/A 21170 21732 N/A 21182 22801 21328 21844 -4.2%Region 7C: Long Island N/A 13110 13171 N/A 13061 13217 13269 13030 -1.4%

*NOTE: Numbers may not add up due to rounding.

Recruitment Region

NYS Public High School Graduates

Recruitment Region

NYS Public High School Graduates Planning to Attend a 4yr College In-State

The College at Brockport – Enrollment by Region

The College at Brockport - Fall Enrollment by Recruitment Region and Public HS - UG First-Time

Fall 2008Actual

Fall 2009Actual

Fall 2010Actual

Fall 2011Actual

Fall 2012Actual

Fall 2013Actual

Fall 2014Projection*

N % N % N % N % N % N % N %GRAND TOTAL 613 100.0% 666 100.0% 645 100.0% 646 100.0% 673 100.0% 678 100.0% 624 100.0%Public HS - NYS Region 1: Buffalo 134 21.9% 151 22.7% 131 20.3% 132 20.4% 124 18.4% 130 19.2% 124 19.9%Region 2: Rochester 170 27.7% 179 26.9% 168 26.0% 154 23.8% 172 25.6% 181 26.7% 160 25.6%Region 3: Syracuse 87 14.2% 93 14.0% 93 14.4% 101 15.6% 74 11.0% 80 11.8% 80 12.8%Region 4: North Country

30 4.9% 28 4.2% 26 4.0% 25 3.9% 27 4.0%34

5.0% 28 4.5%

Region 5: Catskills 26 4.2% 34 5.1% 26 4.0% 31 4.8% 31 4.6% 28 4.1% 27 4.3%Region 6: Albany 40 6.5% 46 6.9% 52 8.1% 42 6.5% 44 6.5% 33 4.9% 37 5.9%Region 7A: Mid-Hudson

11 1.8% 25 3.8% 26 4.0% 33 5.1% 36 5.3%33

4.9% 28 4.5%

Region 7B: NYC Boroughs

22 3.6% 19 2.9% 33 5.1% 28 4.3% 50 7.4%56

8.3% 41 6.6%

Region 7C: Long Island

31 5.1% 43 6.5% 37 5.7% 39 6.0% 48 7.1%44

6.5% 41 6.6%

Private HS - NYS 41 6.7% 30 4.5% 34 5.3% 36 5.6% 43 6.4% 38 5.6% 37 5.9%Not NYS 21 3.4% 18 2.7% 19 2.9% 25 3.9% 24 3.6% 21 3.1% 21 3.4%                             *NOTE: Numbers may not add up due to rounding.NOTE: these numbers are for illustrative purposes only and have been transformed from the original data                      

Recruitment Region AnalysisRecruitment Region Analysis - Ranking Based on Four Categories

Recruitment Region

CategoryTOTAL SCORE

Population Potential Quality

Yield: HS Grads

Yield:Admit Pool

Region 1: Buffalo 1 2 2 2 7Region 2: Rochester 0 1 2 2 5Region 3: Syracuse 2 1 2 2 7Region 4: North Country 0 1 1 1 3Region 5: Catskills 0 2 1 1 4Region 6: Albany 0 1 0 1 2Region 7A: Mid-Hudson 2 0 0 0 2Region 7B: NYC Boroughs 1 0 0 0 1Region 7C: Long Island 2 0 0 0 2

2 = HIGH1 = MEDIUM0 = LOW

Market Drivers and Fiscal Information

Heavy Competition for Students:Over 3200 Post Secondary Institutions

SOURCE: U.S. Education Department http://chronicle.com Section: The 2007-8 Almanac, Volume 54, Issue 1,

Impact of the Economy

76% of families would be “somewhat” or “very likely” to consider a more expensive institution if it could deliver

greater value.

Source: Longmire & Company, Inc. 2009 “Study of the Impact of the Economy on Enrollment”

Impact of the Economy

In 2010 46% of students claimed the current economic crisis

caused them to reconsider the schools they would apply to or

attend – an increase from 34% in 2009.

Source: Noel-Levitz 2010 e-expectations report

Market Driver Questions:• Given the heightened competition among higher

education nationally, how do we set ourselves apart – both in presentation & communication?

• How are you engaging your students and their families?

• How do you discuss quality and value with the families?

The College at Brockport’s Reaction to Demographic Changes

and Market Realities Within Undergraduate Enrollment

Management

Strategy #1 - Investment - Enrollment Management

Positions & Reorganization

Enrollment Management Positions

• Fill AVP with experienced professional from an Admissions or statistical background

• Re-visioning Undergraduate Admissions– Re-purposing Associate and Assistant

Director’s roles to become focused on recruitment strategies, special programs, daily operations and efficiencies.

• E-recruiter/Communications Specialist• Enrollment Analyst

Enrollment Management Positions Investment:

• Have any of your institutions engaged in a re-organization or re-visioning effort on your campus and what was the purpose of this exercise?

• What have been the results of this re-organization on your campus? (i.e. campus buy in, fiscal ramifications, ROI increases)

Expanding the FunnelStrategy #2

Expanding the Funnel• Name-buy strategy – an additional 170,000 name-buys

to expand the funnel– New York State

• Increased SAT range from 1000-1300 to 900-1600 which resulted in an increase from 26,000 to 51,000 prospective students

• Junior PSAT and ACT-Plan, senior SAT, ACT, NRCCUA and AP scores 3 and above

– Out-of-state • Northern New Jersey• Northern Pennsylvania • Western Massachusetts • Vermont & New Hampshire

ROI from Funnel Expansion

• Changes instituted in late 2012• Largest number of applications in

Brockport history!• Following a decrease of -.34% for Fall

2012 from Fall 2011, we experienced an Increase in # of Traditional 1st year applicants +3% in for Fall 2013. Current applications for Fall 2014 +11.43%

Expanding the Funnel

How does the funnel impact your budget, the quality of the student body and your

ultimate outcomes?

Financial LeveragingStrategy #3

Importance of Financial Aid in College Choice

90% of prospective college students consider financial aid/grant in aid an

important factor influencing their college choice.

Source: Education Dynamics 2010

“Moody's Analytics Warns Student Loans May Be The Next Financial Bubble To Burst”

SOURCE:www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/09/moodys-student-loans-bubble-burst_n_922646.html

Why institutional aid is under pressure today in higher education

• Federal grant aid to undergraduate students more than doubled in constant dollars between 2002‐03 and 2012‐13, increasing from 21% to 24% of the total $185.1 billion in undergraduate aid.

• For graduates of public four-year colleges, average debt per graduate, including those who did not borrow, increased by 12% (from $10,600 to $11,900 in 2012 dollars) between 2001-02 and 2006-07, and by 20% (from $11,900 to $14,300) over the next five years.

• For graduates of private nonprofit four-year colleges, average debt per graduate, including those who did not borrow, increased by 23% (from $15,400 to $19,000 in 2012 dollars) between 2001-02 and 2006-07, and by 3% (from $19,000 to $19,500) over the next five years

Source: Trends in Student Aid 2013 – College Boardhttp://trends.collegeboard.org/sites/default/files/student-aid-2013-full-report.pdf

National Factors Most Noted in Choosing a College

1. College has very good academic reputation (62.0 percent)2. This college's graduates get good jobs (53.3 percent)3. I was offered financial assistance (45.5 percent)4. A visit to the campus (41.8 percent)5. The cost of attending this college (41.0 percent)6. College has a good reputation for social activities (39.5 percent)7. Wanted to go to a college about this size (38.7 percent)8. Grads get into good grad/professional schools (32.2 percent)9. Wanted to live near home (19.0 percent)10. Information from a website (17.9 percent)11. Rankings in national magazines (16.7 percent)12. Parents wanted me to go to this school (13.7 percent)12. Admitted early decision and/or early action (13.7 percent)14. Could not afford first choice (12.2 percent)15. High school counselor advised me (9.6 percent)16. Not offered aid by first choice (8.9 percent)17. Athletic department recruited me (8.8 percent)18. Attracted by religious affiliation/orientation of college (7.3 percent)19. My teacher advised me (6.0 percent)

Source: http://www.usnews.com/education/blogs/college-rankings-blog/2011/01/27/students-say-rankings-arent-most-important-factor-in-college-decision

Enrollment Investment #1 Ellsworth Scholar’s Sleepover

Total Permanent allocated costs for Ellsworth Scholar Sleepover = $Low 20’s

Return on Investment– 172 students attended the three Scholar’s Sleepover programs in 2013 – Of the 172 students who attended, 90 students deposited for a yield rate of

53.4%. All students who attended were awarded an Extraordinary Scholarship– Average revenue to Brockport for 90 students = $1,652,580– Average revenue to Brockport based upon a 90 student yield and factoring in

the average Extraordinary awarded to each student = $1,247,580*– Essentially, the college made a $258 investment per student (total permanent

costs associated with the sleepover/90 students) that yielded a ROI of $13,862 per student

Leveraging FA Initiatives at The College at Brockport

A. Cross tabulated grid for ascertaining value of awarding dollars to students based upon GPA range and SAT/ACT score.

B. Honors scholarships targeting high ability students

C. Out of state recognition scholarships D. Providing incentives for academically prepared

students who are just out of the running for traditional scholarships at the college

Financial Leveraging

• How is your institution aligning your financial aid awarding policies with your enrollment goals?

• What are some strategies that you have implemented to maximize net tuition revenue?

Retention and GraduationStrategy #4

Improve Retention & Graduation

Early Warning System

Statistical Model

Student ReportFaculty ReportStaff Report

Midterm Grades

Academic Intervention

High Impact Educational Practices1. First year seminar 2. Common intellectual experiences3. Writing-intensive courses4. Undergraduate research5. Service learning6. Capstone courses and projects7. Learning communities 8. Collaborative assignments and projects9. Internships or field experiences10. Study abroad

Source: Dr George D Kuh (presentation notes 27 May 2010)

“Student Life Cycle”High School

FYESYE

CC or other feeder institution

TYEMajor

Career

Graduate Education

Programs for First Year Students• Freshman Summer Reading Program• Academic Planning Seminar (APS)• Brockport Bound• Summer Orientation• Peer Mentoring Program• First Year Residence Halls• Living Learning Communities• Block Scheduling• Freshman Council• Strategies to Eliminate Probationary Status (STEPS)• Parent/family outreach

Freshman Orientation Goals• Assist incoming students in their transition• Promote early relationships • Familiarize students with

campus• Help students complete necessary tasks • Establish a comfort level • Develop a lasting partnership with families• Answer questions

Summer Reading Program

Tenth year and counting…

2013: Leaving Microsoft to Change the Worldby John Wood

Academic Planning Seminar• Required of all freshmen• Taught by academic advisor• Typically grouped by major• Topics covered– Summer Reading book– General Education– Course Management System– Campus involvement– Time Management– Early warning advisement questionnaire– Academic Support–

– Alcohol Awareness– Mid-semester progress evaluation– Public Speaking– Career Investigation– Registration Information

Freshman Peer Mentor Program• Every freshman receives a mentor• Online connection begins between Summer

Orientation and Fall semester• One mentor assigned to each freshman seminar• Mentors send weekly suggestions throughout

first semester• Mentors attend and give presentations in

freshman seminar courses

Academic Support• Faculty Early Warning System• Steps To Eliminate Probationary Status (STEPS)

– Coordinate assistance with Student Learning Center, Office for Students With Disabilities and other resources on campus as needed

– Required of all first year students on academic probation

– Meet frequently during spring semester– Weekly communication via Angel

Second Year Experience• Sophomore Residency Requirement• Career Exploration• Living Learning Communities• Leadership Development Program• Community Service & Civic Engagement• Second Year Council• National Society of Collegiate Scholars• End of the Year Celebration• STEPS for Sophomores

STEPS for Second Year Students

• Includes all second year students on academic probation

• Invites students not making sufficient academic progress (< 30 credits after first year, < 45 credits after three semesters)

• Brockport 101• On-line Orientation (under development)• Transfer Academic Planning Seminar (TAPS)• Transfer Peer Mentor Program• Transfer Center• Transfer Council• Tau Sigma Chapter• STEPS for Transfer Students• Brockport Bound

Programs for Transfer Students

Transfer Academic Planning Seminar (TAPS)

• GEP 300• Course Instruction

– In class and online • Material

– Time management– Student Learning Center– Library – Health and Counseling

• One semester• One credit, upper division elective

Academic Recognition & Support

Tau Sigma – Transfer Honor Society– 15 credits, 3.5 GPA (minimum)– Over 100 members

Juniors & Seniors• Internships & Practicum Experiences• Culminating Experiences• Undergraduate Research• Study Abroad• Faculty Early Warning System• Service Learning• Student Organization Leadership Opportunities• Leadership Development Program

Questions??