overview nebojsa nakicenovic, iiasa and tu wien former gea director

OverviewNebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASA and TU WienFormer GEA Director

2012 #2 Nakicenovic

IIASAIIASAInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Global Energy AssessmentToward a Sustainable Future

Nebojsa NakicenovicDirector

www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

2013 #3 Nakicenovic

GEA Launch RIO+20, 19 June 2012

Kandeh Yumkella, DG UNIDO, referred

to the GEA report as the “energy bible”.

Josè Goldemberg, Yong Ha Kim, H.E. Nguyen Thien, L. Gomez-Echeverri, Pavel Kabat, Hasan Mahmud, Kuntoro Mangkusubroto

2013 #4 Nakicenovic


GEA, 2012

2013 #5 Nakicenovic


● Total Effort: 300 Authors; 200 Reviewers> 6 years >> 6m € and >> 100 p-years

● # of Reviewer comments: >6000● # of Language Editors:15● # of Copy Editors:15● # of Figures: ~ 650● # of Tables: ~ 380● # of References: >7000

● # of Pages (Published): ~1864 Pages● Single volume of 5.5 kg

2013 #6 Nakicenovic

External Funding Partners● Austrian Development Agency (ADA)

● Climate Works Foundation

● Deutsche Gesellschaft für

Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH

● First Solar Inc.

● Global Environment Facility (GEF)

through UNIDO

● Italian Ministry for the Environment

and Territory

● Petrobras

● Research Council of Norway

● Swedish Research Council for

Environment, Agricultural Sciences

and Spatial Planning (FORMAS)

● Swedish Research Council for

Environment, Agricultural Sciences

and Spatial Planning (FORMAS) and

Swedish Energy Agency

● United Nations Development

Programme (UNDP)

● United Nations Environment

Programme (UNEP)

● United Nations Foundation (UNF)

● United Nations Industrial Development

Organization (UNIDO)

● US Environmental Protection Agency

(US EPA)

● US Department of Energy (DOE)

through Global Environment and

Technology Foundation

● World Bank/ESMAP

● World Energy Council (WEC)

2013 #7 Nakicenovic

GEA Council● Ged Davis – GEA Co-President● José Goldemberg – GEA Co-President; Professor Emeritus, University of São Paulo● Michael Ahearn, First Solar Inc.● Dan Arvizu, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)● Monique Barbut, Global Environment Facility (GEF)● Corrado Clini, Italian Ministry for the Environment and Territory● Robert Corell, Global Environment and Technology Foundation (GETF)● Fei FENG, Development Research Centre (DRC) of the State Council of China, China● Christoph Frei, World Energy Council (WEC)● Irene Giner-Reichl, Foreign Ministry of Austria● Pavel Kabat, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)● Tomas Kåberger, formerly Swedish Energy Agency● Olav Kjørven, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)● Manfred Konukiewitz, German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)● Celso Fernando Lucchesi, Petrobras● Kirit Parikh, formerly Indian Planning Commission and Integrated Research and Action for Development

(IRADe)● Jamal Saghir, World Bank● John Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; and International Council for Science

(ICSU)● Nikhil Seth, Division for Sustainable Development, United Nations Department of Economic and Social

Affairs (UNDESA)● Achim Steiner, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)● Björn Stigson, formerly World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD)● Claude Turmes, Member of the European Parliament● Robert Watson, Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and Tyndall Centre at the

University of East Anglia● Anders Wijkman, formerly Member of the European Parliament● Timothy E. Wirth, United Nations Foundation● Kandeh Yumkella, United Nations Industrial Development Organization● Zhou Dadi, Energy Research Institute, China

2013 #8 Nakicenovic

GEA Council● Ged Davis – GEA Co-President● José Goldemberg – GEA Co-President; Professor Emeritus, University of São Paulo● Michael Ahearn, First Solar Inc.● Dan Arvizu, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)● Monique Barbut, Global Environment Facility (GEF)● Corrado Clini, Italian Ministry for the Environment and Territory● Robert Corell, Global Environment and Technology Foundation (GETF)● Fei FENG, Development Research Centre (DRC) of the State Council of China, China● Christoph Frei, World Energy Council (WEC)● Irene Giner-Reichl, Foreign Ministry of Austria● Pavel Kabat, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)● Tomas Kåberger, formerly Swedish Energy Agency● Olav Kjørven, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)● Manfred Konukiewitz, German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)● Celso Fernando Lucchesi, Petrobras● Kirit Parikh, formerly Indian Planning Commission and Integrated Research and Action for Development

(IRADe)● Jamal Saghir, World Bank● John Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; and International Council for Science

(ICSU)● Nikhil Seth, Division for Sustainable Development, United Nations Department of Economic and Social

Affairs (UNDESA)● Achim Steiner, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)● Björn Stigson, formerly World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD)● Claude Turmes, Member of the European Parliament● Robert Watson, Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and Tyndall Centre at the

University of East Anglia● Anders Wijkman, formerly Member of the European Parliament● Timothy E. Wirth, United Nations Foundation● Kandeh Yumkella, United Nations Industrial Development Organization● Zhou Dadi, Energy Research Institute, China

2013 #9 Nakicenovic

GEA Executive Committee● Thomas B. Johansson – (Co-Chair) Lund University; Sweden ● Anand Patwardhan – (Co-Chair) Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India● Nebojsa Nakicenovic – (Director) IIASA and Vienna University of Technology; Austria● Luis Gomez-Echeverri – (Associate Director) IIASA; Colombia● Stephen Karekezi – African Energy Policy Research Network; Kenya (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development)● Susan McDade - United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); United States (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development)● He Kebin – Tsinghua University; China (Ch3: Energy and Environment)● Johan Rockström – Stockholm Environment Institute; Sweden (Ch3: Energy and Environment)● Lisa Emberson Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, United Kingdom (Ch3: Energy and Environment)● Kirk Smith – University of California, Berkeley; United States (Ch4: Energy and Health)● Aleh Cherp – Central European University; Belarus (Ch5: Energy and Security)● Kurt Yeager – Electric Power Research Institute; United States (Ch 6: Energy and Economy)● Hans-Holger Rogner – International Atomic Energy Agency; Germany (Ch7: Energy Resources and Potentials)● Rangan Banerjee – ITT Bombay; India (Ch8: Energy End-Use: Industry)● Suzana Kahn Ribeiro – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; Brazil (Ch9: Energy End-Use: Transport)● Diana Urge-Vorsatz – Central European University; Budapest (Ch10: Energy End-Use: Buildings)● Wim Turkenburg – Utrecht University; Netherlands (Ch11: Renewable Energy)● Li Zheng – Tsinghua University; China (Ch12: Fossil Energy)● Eric Larson – Princeton University and Climate Central; United States (Ch12: Fossil Energy)● Sally Benson – Stanford University; United States (Ch13: Carbon Capture and Storage)● Frank von Hippel – Princeton University; United States (Ch14: Nuclear Energy)● Robert Schock – World Energy Council and Center for Global Security Research; United States (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems)● Ralph Sims – Massey University; New Zealand (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems)● Anand Patwardhan – Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India (Ch16: Transitions in Energy Systems) ● Keywan Riahi – IIASA; Austria (Ch17: Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development)● Arnulf Grubler – IIASA and Yale Univ.; Austria (Ch18: Urbanization Energy Systems; and Ch24: Policies for Technology Innovation)● Abeeku Brew-Hammond – Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science & Tech.; Ghana (Ch19: Energy Access for Development)● Shonali Pachauri – IIASA; India (Ch19: Energy Access for Development)● Suani T. Coelho – CENBIO-Brazilian Reference Center on Biomass; Brazil (Ch20: Land and Water: Linkages to Bioenergy)● Joyashree Roy – Jadavpur University; India (Ch21: Lifestyles, Well Being and Energy)● Mark Jaccard – Simon Fraser Univ.; Canada (Ch22: Policies for Energy System Transformations: Objectives and Instruments)● Daniel Bouille – Bariloche Foundation; Argentina (Ch23: Policies for Energy Access)● Lynn Mytelka – UNU-MERIT; Canada (Ch25: Policies for Capacity Development)

2013 #10 Nakicenovic

GEA Executive Committee● Thomas B. Johansson – (Co-Chair) Lund University; Sweden ● Anand Patwardhan – (Co-Chair) Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India● Nebojsa Nakicenovic – (Director) IIASA and Vienna University of Technology; Austria● Luis Gomez-Echeverri – (Associate Director) IIASA; Colombia● Stephen Karekezi – African Energy Policy Research Network; Kenya (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development)● Susan McDade - United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); United States (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development)● He Kebin – Tsinghua University; China (Ch3: Energy and Environment)● Johan Rockström – Stockholm Environment Institute; Sweden (Ch3: Energy and Environment)● Lisa Emberson Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, United Kingdom (Ch3: Energy and Environment)● Kirk Smith – University of California, Berkeley; United States (Ch4: Energy and Health)● Aleh Cherp – Central European University; Belarus (Ch5: Energy and Security)● Kurt Yeager – Electric Power Research Institute; United States (Ch 6: Energy and Economy)● Hans-Holger Rogner – International Atomic Energy Agency; Germany (Ch7: Energy Resources and Potentials)● Rangan Banerjee – ITT Bombay; India (Ch8: Energy End-Use: Industry)● Suzana Kahn Ribeiro – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; Brazil (Ch9: Energy End-Use: Transport)● Diana Urge-Vorsatz – Central European University; Budapest (Ch10: Energy End-Use: Buildings)● Wim Turkenburg – Utrecht University; Netherlands (Ch11: Renewable Energy)● Li Zheng – Tsinghua University; China (Ch12: Fossil Energy)● Eric Larson – Princeton University and Climate Central; United States (Ch12: Fossil Energy)● Sally Benson – Stanford University; United States (Ch13: Carbon Capture and Storage)● Frank von Hippel – Princeton University; United States (Ch14: Nuclear Energy)● Robert Schock – World Energy Council and Center for Global Security Research; United States (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems)● Ralph Sims – Massey University; New Zealand (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems)● Anand Patwardhan – Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India (Ch16: Transitions in Energy Systems) ● Keywan Riahi – IIASA; Austria (Ch17: Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development)● Arnulf Grubler – IIASA and Yale Univ.; Austria (Ch18: Urbanization Energy Systems; and Ch24: Policies for Technology Innovation)● Abeeku Brew-Hammond – Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science & Tech.; Ghana (Ch19: Energy Access for Development)● Shonali Pachauri – IIASA; India (Ch19: Energy Access for Development)● Suani T. Coelho – CENBIO-Brazilian Reference Center on Biomass; Brazil (Ch20: Land and Water: Linkages to Bioenergy)● Joyashree Roy – Jadavpur University; India (Ch21: Lifestyles, Well Being and Energy)● Mark Jaccard – Simon Fraser Univ.; Canada (Ch22: Policies for Energy System Transformations: Objectives and Instruments)● Daniel Bouille – Bariloche Foundation; Argentina (Ch23: Policies for Energy Access)● Lynn Mytelka – UNU-MERIT; Canada (Ch25: Policies for Capacity Development)


http://www.christianmemorials.com/tributes/Abeeku-Hammond

Remembrance: Abeeku Brew-HammondCo-CLA of Chapter 19Energy Access for Development



Authors and Editors of GEA (1 of 2)Jean AcquatellaAdeola AdenikinjuLawrence AgbemabieseOlivia AgbenyegaAstrid AgostiniFrancisco AguayoRoberto F. AguileraGilbert AhamerJohn AhearneHugo AltomonteMarkus AmannLaura Diaz AnadonPer Dannemand AndersenCristina L. ArcherDoug ArentRobert AyresChristian AzarInes AzevedoXuemei BaiKalpana BalakrishnanRangan BanerjeeDouglas F. BarnesJennie BarronIgor BashmakovTimothy BaynesMorgan BazilianKamel BennaceurSally M. BensonRuggero BertaniS.C. BhattacharyaDan BilelloGunilla BjörklundBrenda BoardmanDaniel H. BouilleGrant BoyleSylvia BreukersAbeeku Brew-HammondIan BrydenThomas BuettnerStan BullMatthew BunnColin Butler

Zoë ChafeAleh CherpHelena ChumLeon ClarkeSuani T. CoelhoYu CongPeter CookRobert CorellFelix CreutzigDaniel CurtisTouria DafrallahOgunlade DavidsonJohn DavisonFelix DayoHeleen de ConinckLuiz Alberto de Melo BrettasAdilson de OliveiraGabriel de ScheemakerPaulo Teixeira de Sousa Jr.Frank DentenerShobhakar DhakalAnatoli DiakovMing DINGMichael DohertyAnne-Maree DowdCarolina DubeuxMaurice B. DusseaultLisa EmbersonKarl-Heinz ErbNick EyreAndre FaaijIan FairlieKarim FarhatSara FeresuMaria Josefina FigueroaCarolyn FischerBrian FisherDavid J. FiskTheo H. FleischTira ForanRoger FouquetJunichi Fujino

Sabine FussLuc GagnonKelly GallagherHu GaoIbrahim Abdel GelilDolf GielenAsmerom GilauStephen GitongaRobert GoldstonAndreas GoldthauPeter GrahamArnulf GrublerHelmut HaberlRichard HaeuberKeisuke HanakiMaureen HandDanny HarveyMarianne HaugKebin HEMarko HekkertFancisco HernandezSergio Tirado HerreroEdgar HertwichConrado HeruelaKevin HicksFrank von HippelMonique HoogwijkRichard HosierLarry HughesAlison HughesJane HupeToshiaki IchinoseMorna IsaacMark JaccardStaffan JacobssonJill JägerMartin JakobKathryn JandaGilberto JannuzziJaap JansenJessica JewellYi Jiang

Kejun JiangEberhard JochemThomas B. JohanssonFrancis X. JohnsonArthur JohnsonIan JohnsonSuzana Kahn RibeiroMikiko KainumaDaniel KammenShinji KanekoStephen KarekeziAnders KarlqvistTadahiro KatsutaJames E. KeirsteadFrancis KemausuorRené KempRuud KempenerJohn KimaniOsamu KimuraPatrick KinneyBernadette KissTord KjellstromZbigniew KlimontShigeki KobayashiPeter KolpChristian KornevallReza KowsariDiana KraftFridolin KrausmannWolfram Krewitt†Volker KreySivanappan KumarRattan LalHans LarsenEric LarsonRik LeemansSylvie LemmetPhilippe LemppManfred LenzenZheng LI


Vladimir LikhachevGuangjian LIUJeff LoganOswaldo LuconJohn LundNora LustigJordan MacknickMili MajumdarFrançois MaréchalOmar MaseraDenise L. MauzerallPeter McCabeDavid McCollumCharles McCombieSusan McDadeAimee T. McKaneThomas McKoneJames E. McMahonAnthony McMichaelMichael McNeilMark MehosTim MerriganJacqui MeyersAlan MillerSevastianos MirasgedisCatherine MitchellVijay ModiJoachim MonkelbaanJosé Roberto MoreiraGragner MorganSiwa MsangiAdrian MullerMohan MunasingheLuis MundacaShuzo MurakamiIyngararasan MylvakanamLynn MytelkaYu NagaiKoji NaganoHitomi NakanishiNebojsa NakicenovicLena Neij

Gregory NemetGeorge L. NicolaidesHans NilssonAleksandra NovikovaVictoria NovikovaAnastasia O’RourkeVirginia Sonntag O'BrienMichael OhadiMarina OlshanskayaShonali PachauriSaptarshi PalShamik PalDebajit PalitRiddhi PanseMahesh PatankarAnand PatwardhanKsenia PetrichenkoHector PistonesiChristoph PlutzarGisela PrasadNdola PrataLynn PricePallav PurohitKrishnan S. RajanM.V. RamanaAndrea RamirezSaumya RanjanAnand RaoShilpa RaoAmitav RathRob RavenXiangkun RenKeywan RiahiKamal RijalJohan RockströmHans-Holger RognerMathis L. RognerMarc A. RosenCarolina RossiniJoyashree RoyLau SailiConstantine Samaras

Gerd SammerJayant SathayeDavid SatterthwaiteDeger SayginJules SchersChristoph SchillingJürgen SchmidMycle SchneiderSabine SchnittgerRobert N. SchockNiels B. SchulzSeongwon SeoAli ShafieiNilay ShahRam M. ShresthaPriyadarshi R. ShuklaDale SimbeckRalph SimsWim SinkeKirk R. SmithAaron SmithAdrian SmithRicardo Soares de OliveiraYouba SokonaWeiwei SongBenjamin SovacoolAshutosh SrivastavaLeena SrivastavaKjartan Steen-OlsenJulia SteinbergerLars StrupeitTerry SurlesTatsujiro SuzukiAlice SverdlikMinoru TakadaRichard TaylorTheodore ThrasherRobert ThresherJulie TranUpendra TripathyCraig TurchiWim Turkenburg

Neha UmarjiDiana Ürge-VorsatzEric UsherSergey VakulenkoHarry VallackRita van DingenenDenis van EsBas van RuijvenWilfried van SarkOscar van VlietDetlef P. van VuurenGeert VerbongPreeti VermaDavid VictorEugene VisagieSeppo VuoriHorst WagnerRahul WalawalkarNjeri Wamukonya†Jim WatsonSandy WebbJan WeinzettelHelga WeiszJohn WeyantJohn T. WilbanksPaul WilkinsonRobert H. WilliamsCharlie WilsonRosemary WolsonErnst WorrellIain WrightVladimir YakushevKenji YamajiKurt YeagerSuyuan YuHisham ZerriffiQiang ZhangXiliang ZhangLi ZhouJi Zou

Authors and Editors of GEA (2 of 2)


Dilip AhujaAnas AlhajjiMaria ArgiriVicki ArroyoAlan AtkissonPatil BalachandraFritz BarthelDavid F. BattenFrans BerkhoutChristoph BertramPreety BhandariKornelis BlokValentina BosettiRichard A. BradleyElizabeth CecelskiAkanksha ChaureyFrancisco de la ChesnayeNikhil DesaiHadi DowlatabadiOlivier DuboisGautam S. DuttGeoff DuttonJames A. EdmondsWolfgang EichhammerPer EikelandPaul Epstein†Marianne FayPeter FraenkelAntony FroggattBill FulkersonDonald GautierBradford GentryJohn GibbonsMichael W. GolayDonna L. GoodmanCharles GoodmanPaul GrahamDavid L. GreeneDon GretherAndrei GritsevskyiiWaclaw GudowskiEshita GuptaPablo GutmanJavier Hanna

John Bøgild HansenNikos HatziargyriouMarianne HaugPeter HauganDetlev HeinemannPeter HennickeVera HöfeleAdonai Herrera MartinezMark HopkinsLuiz Horta NoqueiraChuck HowardErnst HuengesSteven HuntHillard HuntingtonAntonina Ivanova BonchevaRoderick JacksonArnulf Jaeger-WaldauMichael JeffersonCatrinus JepmaHongguang JinVeena JoshiJames R. KatzerGregory KeoleianEmek Barış KepenekIlkka KeppoAnund KillingtveitJong-Inn KimJonathan G. KoomeySivanappan KumarBalesh KumarVello KuuskraaAnthony LandMelissa LapsaLouis LebelStefan LechtenböhmerNicolas Lefèvre-MartonVladimir LikhachevDavid LobellAlexander LuediNestor Luna GonzalezLandis MacKellarAlexei A. MakarovMaxwell MapakoAnil Markandya

Gregg MarlandAjay MathurHelio MattarDoug McKayJames MeadowcroftTatyana MitrovaArild MoeMark R. MontgomeryShantanu MukherjeePeter MulderSvend MunkejordRogier NijssenLars NilssonDong-Woon NohTor NygaardJoan OgdenDennis S. OjimaDebo OladosuRalph P. OverendTony OwenKaren PalmerMartin K. PatelRashmi S. PatilWalt PattersonMartin PehntJoachim PeinkePer F. PetersonCédric PhilibertGonzalo Piernavieja IzquierdoRobert PindyckLuiz Pinguelli RosaLawrence PittMaximilian PoschGraham PughTinus PullesBurton RichterMichael RockRichard Alexander RoehrlAdam RoseMark RosenbergTeodoro SanchezAjit SapreGuido Schmidt-TraubJan Sendzimir

Karen SetoEvgeny ShvartsToufiq SiddiqiJim SkeaRuud SmitsRobert SocolowLuc SoeteAllen SolomonMohammad SoltaniehLaszlo SomlyodyAshok SreenivasWill SteffenAndrew StirlingHarry C. StokesGary StugginsSalvador Suárez GarcíaYoshiharu TachibanaAnil TerwayJefferson TesterThomas TheisonStefan ThomasVictoria ThoresenDennis TirpakMichael TomanDavid Trimm†Anthony TurhollowHal TurtonJulio Usaola GarciaBob van der ZwaanThyjagarajan VelumailIvan VeraFernando VianaNadejda M. VictorSpyros VoutsinasSteve WielThomas J. WilbanksRobert WilliamsHarald WinklerAnny WongFrancis D. YambaXianli ZhuReviewer 49Reviewer 93 Reviewer 118Reviewer 172

Reviewers of GEA


Four Clusters● Cluster I Characterized nature and magnitude of the major

challenges of our century – e.g. poverty eradication, climate change, health, air pollution, energy security.

● Cluster II Reviewed existing and future resources, technology options and energy end use in sectors

● Cluster III Integrated elements of Cluster II into systems and contrasted them to challenges in Cluster I Using Scenarios, numerical models and storylines, explored integrated solutions

● Cluster IV Assessed policy options, and specifically identified policy packages that could meet needs linked to scenarios

Message: current energy systems require major transformation through integrated and cross-sectoral approaches involving multiple stakeholders


The Global Energy Challenge Major transformations are required if future energy

systems are to be affordable, safe, secure, and environmentally sound. There is an urgent need for a sustained and comprehensive strategy to help resolve the following challenges:

Providing clean and affordable energy services for all; Increasing energy security for all nations, regions, and

communities; Reducing GHG emissions to limit global warming to

less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels; Reducing indoor and outdoor air pollution from fuel

combustion and its impacts on human health; and Reducing the adverse effects and ancillary risks.

#18

Energy Access

Energy Security

Climate Change

The Key Energy Challenges

Air PollutionHealth Impacts

UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

2030 Energy Goal

● Universal Access to Modern Energy

● Double Energy Efficiency Improvement

● Double Renewable Share in Final Energy

Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable

Transforming the global energy systems to address urgent challenges of the 21st century

21

Energy cuts across sustainable development issues

Pursuing three objectives simultaneously bring about immense benefits – Opportunity for UN to Test New Models of

Cooperation

Ensuring universal Energy Access

Doubling the share of Renewable Energy

Achieving the three objectives of Sustainable Energy for All…

Doubling the rate of improvement in Energy Efficiency

… makes many development goals possible

....it is not just about power stations, transformers and distribution lines (though critical and important)

▪ Improved health Improved agricultural productivity

▪ Empowerment of women

▪ Business and employment creation

▪ Economic development and equity

▪ Achievement of the Millennium Development Goals

▪ Lighting / appliances that require less power

▪ Fossil fuel resources used more effectively

▪ Reduced energy costs for consumers

▪ Redistribution of electricity that now is wasted or lost

▪ More reliable electricity systems

▪ Affordable energy even where grid does not reach

▪ New opportunities for small entrepreneurs

▪ Decreased variability in energy costs

▪ Energy security and reduced import bills

▪ Reduced environmental impacts

Country ActionCurrent Status

• 77 countries have now formally joined – more in pipeline - 5 in RBEC region

• 40 Rapid Assessment studies done or in process – basis for next step – action plan preparation

• Several donors, international institutions and businesses already committed

• Implementation Phase to begin in 2013 – now - for a long term commitment

Africa, 38

Asia-Pacific; 16

LAC, 19

Europe & CIS, 5 MiddleEast; 1


KF6 Universal Access by 2030

Universal access to electricity and cleaner cooking fuels and stoves can be achieved by 2030; this will require innovative institutions, national and local enabling mechanisms, and targeted policies, including appropriate subsidies and financing.

Enhancing access among poor people, especially poor women, is essential for increasing standards of living;

Universal access to clean cooking technologies will substantially improve health, prevent millions of premature deaths, and lower household and ambient air pollution levels, as well as the emissions of climate-altering substances.

2013 #24 Nakicenovic 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Perc

enta

ge o

f to

tal pop

ula

tion w

ith

ele

ctri

city

acc

ess

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

USA

Mexico

Brazil

India

South Africa

China

Baseline

Baseline

SE4All

SE4All

Sub-Saharan Africa

South AsiaUSA Rural

Perc

enta

ge o

f ru

ral p

opu

lati

on w

ith e

lect

rici

ty a

ccess

Electrification

Source: Pachauri et al, 2012

#25 14

Gas Hydrates~6,600 – 57,000

GtCO2

Present Atmosphere

~3060 GtCO2

Historcial Emissions

~1900 GtCO2

~850 GtCO2

Cumulative Emissions for 2oC

Stabilzaiton

PreidustrialAtmosphere~2000 GtCO2

Coal~ 30,000 GtCO2

Biomass~1,600–

1,650GtCO2

N. Gas~340–500

GtCO2

Oil ~660–1,000

GtCO2

Unconv. Oil~1,100–1,500

GtCO2

Unconventional Gas~4,550 GtCO2

~2450 GtCO2

Gas Hydrates~100,000

GtCO2

#26

Europe Population vs. Energy Demand Density

26

WEU: 21% of demand belowrenewable density threshold

EEU: 34% of demand belowrenewable density threshold

#27

KF1 Transformation The GEA analysis demonstrates that a sustainable

future requires a transformation from today’s energy systems to those with:

Radical improvements in energy efficiency, especially in end use

Greater shares of renewable energies and advanced energy systems with carbon capture and storage

The analysis ascertained that there are many ways to transform energy systems and many energy portfolio options.

Large, early, and sustained investments, combined with supporting policies, are needed to implement and finance change.

#28

Final Energy Transformations

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

20002005

20102020

20302040

20502060

20702080

20902100

Fina

l ene

rgy

shar

e (p

erce

nt%

)

Grids(gas, district heat, electricity, hydrogen)

Liquids(oil products, biofuels,

other liquids)

Solids(coal, biomass)

On-site generation

GEA-S

GEA-E

#291850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Mikrochip

Kommerzielle Luftfahrt

Fernseher

VakuumröhreOttomotor

Elektrischer Motor

Dampf-maschine

Nuklear-energie

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

Oil

Gas

Global Primary Energy

Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

#301850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030

~55% renewables by 2030

Oil phase-out (necessary)

Nuclear phase-out (policy)

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

EinsparungenAndere ENuklearGasÖlKohleBiomasse

Global Primary Energyno CCS, no Nuclear

SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

Oil

Gas

#311850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030


Oil phase-out (necessary)

Limited Intermittent REN

Limited BioenergyBio-CCS – “negative CO2

Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS

Global Primary Energylim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

Oil

Gas


#321850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000


2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

EJ

0

20

40

60

80

100Savings



Global Primary EnergySub-Saharan Africa

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

Oil

Gas


#331850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000



Global Primary EnergyChina

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

EJ

0

50

100

150

200

250Savings


~50% efficiency and decline of coal by 2030

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

Oil

Gas

#341850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000


2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

EJ

0

50

100

150

200

250Savings


Global Primary EnergyNorth America

~40% efficiency 2030

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

Oil

Gas


KF2 Immediate Action

An effective transformation requires immediate action to avoid lock-in of invested capital into energy systems and associated infrastructure that is not compatible with sustainability goals

Long infrastructure lifetimes mean that it takes decades to change energy systems

For example, by 2050 almost three-quarters of the world population is projected to live in cities offering a major opportunity for transforming energy systems


Policy Integration at the Urban Scale

Simulated energy use, urban settlement of 20,000, using the SimCity Model combining spatially explicit models of urban form, density, and energy infrastructures, with energy systems optimization.

Source: Grubler et al, 2012


Supply Technologies Cost Trends

Source: Grubler et al, 2012


KF10 Stable Investment Regimes

A portfolio of policies to enable rapid transformation of energy systems must provide the effective incentive structures and strong signals for the deployment at scale of energy-efficient technologies and systems that contribute to the sustainable development.

The GEA pathways indicate that global investments in combined energy efficiency and supply will need to increase to between US$1.7–2.2 trillion per year compared to present levels of about US$1.3 trillion per year;

Current research and development efforts in these areas are grossly inadequate compared with the future potentials and needs.


Annual EnergyInvestments

InnovationRD&D

[billion US$2005]

MarketsFormation

[billion US$2005]

PresentInvestments[billion US$2005]

FutureInvestments [billion US$2005]

2010 2010 2010 2010 - 2030

Efficiency >> 8 ~ 5 300 300-800

Renewables > 12 ~ 20 200 300-1000

Access < 1 < 1 ~ 9 40-60

Total > 50 < 150 1250 1750–2200

Source: Grubler et al, & Riahi et al, 2011

Investitionen der Entwicklungspfade


KF8 Multiple Benefits

Combinations of resources, technologies, and polices that can simultaneously meet global sustainability goals also generate substantial and tangible near-term local and national economic, environmental, and social development benefits.

These include increased employment options, new business opportunities, productivity gains, improved social welfare and decreased poverty, more resilient infrastructure, and improved energy security;

These benefits make the required energy transformations attractive from multiple policy perspectives and at multiple levels of governance.

overview nebojsa nakicenovic, iiasa and tu wien former gea director

Documents

environment food

international council

gea director slide

world business council

energy bible

nakicenovic gea launch

state council of china

gea report