overview of amc industry - conceptsecurities.com...industry data and opportunity overview 6....
TRANSCRIPT
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Overview of AMC Industry
Date : 26.12.2017
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INDEX
1. Business understanding
2. Glossary
3. Total Saving and investment scenario
4. Evolution of industry
5. Industry Data and opportunity overview
6. Commission, Expense regulations and its data
7. Peer comparison
8. Risks
9. Sources of information
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Business UnderstandingBusiness Understanding
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Asset Management company :
An asset management company (AMC) isa company that invests its clients' pooled fundsinto securities that match declared financialobjectives.
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GlossaryGlossary
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Term Description
AAAUM Annual Average AUM
AMC Asset Management Company
AMFI Association of Mutual Funds of India
B15 Beyond Top 15 Cities
ELSS Equity Linked Saving Schemes
ETF Exchange Traded Funds
Mn Million (Ten Lakh)
Bn Billion (Hundred Crore)
Tr Trillion (Lakh Crore)
Glossary :
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Total Saving and Investment scenarioTotal Saving and Investment scenario
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20654
2232823313
2534226099
64267336
83219192
10825
0.80% 0.76%0.81%
0.78%
1.59%
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
1.60%
1.80%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016
TREND OF FINANCIAL SAVINGS
Net Household Savings(in Bn.) Net Financial Savings(Bn) MF and Shares as a % of Net household savings
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Evolution of IndustryEvolution of Industry
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Year 1964-1987
-Establishment of UTI
-Monopolistic industry
-AUM Rs.6700 Cr in 1988
Year 1987-1993
-Entry of Public Sector MF
-First is SBI MF
- Excluding UTI, AUM of other 8 MF is around Rs.47,000cr
Year 1993-2003
-Industry opened for Private sector
-Fist is Kothari Pioneer
-33 MF houses with total AUM of 1.22 trillion in the end of 2003
Year 2003 onwards
-Healthy growth
-AUM stood at 19.5 trillion with total 41 MF houses
Evolution of Industry
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Industry Data and opportunity overviewIndustry Data and opportunity overview
55
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3.5
5.64.8
7.67 6.6
8.29.1
11.9
13.5
18.3
60%
-14%
58%
-8%-6%
24%
11%
31%
13%
36%
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
AUM DATA OF AMC INDUSTRY
AUM AUM GROWTH(%)
*Total 41 AMCs registered as on March,2017
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1.98 2.18
4.66
0.11 0.03
3.73
2.84
5.34
0.15 0.02
4.21
3.21
5.9
0.2 0.02
6.09
4.18
7.83
0.460.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
EQUITY DEBT-LIQUID DEBT-OTHERS ETF OTHER(FOF)
AUM –PRODUCT WISE
2014 2015 2016 2017
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2.43
2.37
2.11
1.95
1.57
1.37
0.92
0.82
0.64
0.61
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
ICICI Pru AMC
HDFC AMC
Reliance Nippon
Birla SL AMC
SBI AMC
UTI AMC
Kotak AMC
Franklin Templeton AMC
DSP BR AMC
IDFC AMC
AUM AS ON MARCH-2017(Rs. In Tr)
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1062 1136665 627
555374
4045 6987
477 402
373 381
343
3842016 4188
1098 10381032 1083
578656 4907 8194
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
ICICI Pru HDFC Reliance Birla SL SBI UTI Top 5 Total
Debt-Others Debt-Liquid Equity
CATEGARY WISE AMCs AUM IN DIFFERENT MAJOR PRODUCTS(IN BN.)
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5.89
6.71
8.5
10.42
7.61
8.59
10.85
13.04
77%
78%78%
80%
76%
77%
77%
78%
78%
79%
79%
80%
80%
81%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
March`13 March`14 March`15 March`16
Top 10 AMC AUM(in tr) Overall Industry AUM(in tr) Market Share of Top 10 AMC AUM
SITUATION OF TOP AMCs
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AUM IN EQUITY SCHEMES (in Billion)
AMC Name T15% Market Share in
T15B15
% Market Share in B15
Total
HDFC 971 14% 191 15% 1162
ICICI Pru 957 14% 183 15% 1140
Birla SL 914 13% 180 14% 1094
Reliance Nippon 849 12% 142 11% 991
Franklin 465 7% 124 10% 589
Top 5 AMC 4156 60% 820 65% 4976
Total 6933 100% 1261 100% 8194
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84.50%82.20%
15.50%17.80%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
Mar`14 June`17
T15 B15
PENETRATION OF FUNDS IN AMCs
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YearAUM of Top 5
AMCsAUM of Next
5 AMCsAUM of Rest of
the PlayersTotal AUM of AMCs
Market share of Top 5 AMCs
Market share of Next 5 AMCs
Market share of Rest of the Players
Mar-13 4.31 1.97 1.89 8.17 52.75% 24.11% 23.13%
Mar-14 4.87 2.17 2.02 9.06 53.75% 23.95% 22.30%
Mar-15 6.6 2.76 2.53 11.89 55.51% 23.21% 21.28%
Mar-16 7.53 3.23 2.77 13.53 55.65% 23.87% 20.47%
Mar-17 10.43 4.32 3.51 18.26 57.12% 23.66% 19.22%
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15%
67%
48%
76%
16%
85%
33%
52%
24%
84%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Equity Debt-Liquid Debt-Others ETF Other
PRODUCT DISTRIBUTION
DIRECT PLAN REGULAR PLAN
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Amount in Rs. In Trillion Mar`15 Mar`16 Mar-17 June`17
T15 AUM 10.21 11.36 15.49 16.38
Growth in % 11.26% 36.36% 22.98%
B15 AUM 1.9 2.19 3.09 3.54
Growth in % 15.26% 41.10% 58.25%
Total AUM 12.11 13.55 18.58 19.92
Growth in % 11.89% 37.12% 28.85%
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3.14.1
5.2
7.8
5.8
8
8.4
10.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2014 2015 2016 2017
DISTRIBUTION POSITION OF AUM
DIRECT PLAN REGULAR PLAN
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44.80%
23.90%
41.10%
55.20%
76.10%
58.90%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
T15 AUM B15 AUM All India
PENETRATION OF FUNDS IN AMCs
Direct Regular
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YEAR TOTAL INFLOW DEBT-LIQUID DEBT-OTHER EQUITY ETF
2013 0.8 0 0.9 -0.1 0
2014 0.5 0.2 0.4 -0.1 0
2015 1 0.1 0.1 0.8 0
2016 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.1
2017 2.2 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.2
NEW INFLOW OF FUND IN DIFFERENT PRODUCTS (in tr.)
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PRODUCTS FOLIO COUNT(IN MN.) AVERAGE TICKET SIZE(,000)
2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017
EQUITY 33.68 38.52 44.38 110 110 142
DEBT-LIQUID 0.31 0.37 0.79 5216 5430 3982
DEBT-OTHERS 6.9 7.96 9.21 770 733 826
ETF 0.7 0.7 0.92 210 321 545
OTHER 0.15 0.13 0.11 165 156 159
TOTAL 41.74 47.66 55.4 259 259 317
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7% 7%
9% 9%
12%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
March`13 March`14 March`15 March`16 March`17
AUM/GDP RATIO IN INDIA
AUM/GDP Ratio
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Global Australia USA France Genrmany Brazil UKSouth Africa
Korea China India
Debt AUM/GDP 25% 85% 38% 52% 24% 42% 25% 12% 23% 8% 7%
Equity AUM/GDP 30% 51% 66% 28% 35% 14% 29% 34% 7% 4% 3%
30%51%
66%
28% 35%14%
29% 34%
7% 4% 3%
25%
85%38%
52%24%
42%25% 12%
23%8% 7%
AUM/GDP RATIO OF DIFFERENT COUNTRIES
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MF PENETRATION IN INDIA
State AUM IN JUNE 2017(Rs. In Trillion) AUM IN JUNE 2017(%)
Maharastra 8 40%
New Delhi 2 10%
Karnataka 1 5%
Gujarat 1 5%
West Bengal 1 5%
Top Five States 14 70%
Total 20 100%
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Commission structure, Expense ratio data Commission structure, Expense ratio data and regulationand regulation
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23.926
47.4
36.6
49.9
29 29
40
27 27
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mar`13 Mar`14 Mar`15 Mar`16 Mar`17
DISTRIBUTOR COMMISSION SCENARIO
Commission( in Billion) Commision(% bps of AUM)
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Category Maximum Expense Ratio
Fund of fund 2.5% of daily net assets
Index fund or ETF 1.5% of daily net assets
Equity fund 2.5% for first ` 1 billion2.25% for next ` 3 billion2% for the next ` 3 billion
at 1.75% thereafter
Debt Fund In respect of a scheme investing in bonds such recurring expenses shall be less by at least 0.25% of daily net assets
Maximum expense ratio limit as per SEBI :
Over the years SEBI has tightened the regulatory guidelines for the mutual fund industry in order to improve transparency as well as safeguard theinvestor’s interest. In 2009, the entry load, which could be as much as 2% of the net asset value and was charged at the time of investment, was abolished.The entry load was used to fund the upfront commission paid to the distributors. Thereafter in September 2012, SEBI mandated that the exit load becredited back to the scheme. Furthermore, in order to promote mutual funds in smaller cities, SEBI allowed net of service tax fund houses to charge anadditional 30 bps in the total expense ratio (“TER”) should the new inflows from B15 cities be at least 30% of gross new inflows in the scheme or 15% of theaverage assets under management, whichever is higher. In the allowing year SEBI paved way for the creation of a direct plan by AMCs, for directinvestments (investments not routed through a distributor) and such plans were to have a lower expense ratio.
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Trend in the Average Expense Ratio (in %):
Category Equity Diversified Equity Balanced Debt-Liquid Debt-Others
Year Regular Direct Regular Direct Regular Direct Regular Direct
2013 2.49% 2.01% 2.63% 2.12% 0.32% 0.19% 1.59% 0.96%
2014 2.52% 1.89% 2.68% 2.06% 0.33% 0.17% 1.53% 0.50%
2015 2.52% 1.73% 2.57% 1.74% 0.30% 0.11% 1.51% 0.84%
2016 2.51% 1.62% 2.52% 1.53% 0.27% 0.13% 1.45% 0.74%
2017 2.44% 1.55% 2.47% 1.30% 0.26% 0.10% 1.44% 0.72%
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Peer ComparisonPeer Comparison
77
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7.61 8.59 10.85 13.04
0.58%
0.64% 0.62%
0.70%
0.12%0.17% 0.16% 0.18%
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
0.80%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
March`13 March`14 March`15 March`16
PROFITABILITY OF AMC
Sector AUM(Rs. In Tn) Sector Revenue as a % of AUM Sector Profits as a % of AUM
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Particular Mar`13 Mar`14 Mar`15 Mar`16
Total Op. revenue( In Bn.) 44.3 54.8 67 91.1
PAT(In Bn.) 9.2 14.2 17.8 23.1
% increase in Op. Revenue 13% 24% 22% 36%
% increase in PAT -3% 54% 25% 30%
PROFITABILITY OF AMCs
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0.19%
0.24%0.22% 0.22%
0.12%
0.17%0.16%
0.18%
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
March`13 March`14 March`15 March`16
PROFITABILITY OF TOP 10 AMC COMPARE WITH INDUSTRY
PAT/AUM of top 10 AMC PAT/AUM of Industry
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Performance of Top 5 AMCs
Particular ICICI HDFC Reliance Birla SBI
Mar`14 Mar`15 Mar`16 Mar`14 Mar`15 Mar`16 Mar`14 Mar`15 Mar`16 Mar`14 Mar`15 Mar`16 Mar`14 Mar`15 Mar`16
AUM(Rs. In billion) 951.67 1327.14 1670.54 1074.71 1458.62 1721.12 992.43 1245.07 1532.51 827.4 1071.78 1330.04 619.71 772.8 947.87
Market Share(%) 11.08% 12.23% 12.81% 12.15% 13.44% 13.23% 11.55% 11.47% 11.75% 9.63% 9.87% 10.20% 7.21% 6.66% 7.27%
Revenue(Rs. In Billion) 5.31 8.26 9.89 8.59 10.22 14.43 6.62 8.22 11.64 4.89 5.74 7.42 3.85 4.34 5.42
Revenue as % of AUM 0.56% 0.62% 0.59% 0.80% 0.70% 0.84% 0.67% 0.66% 0.76% 0.59% 0.54% 0.56% 0.62% 0.60% 0.57%
PAT (Rs. In Billion) 1.83 2.47 3.26 3.58 4.16 4.78 3.04 3.57 3.7 1.06 1.26 2.09 1.56 1.63 1.65
PAT as % of AUM 0.19% 0.19% 0.19% 0.23% 0.28% 0.28% 0.31% 0.29% 0.24% 0.13% 0.12% 0.16% 0.25% 0.23% 0.17%
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Details on transactions in the mutual fund industry:
Acquirer Target Stake(%) YearAUM(Rs in
Billion)Estimated Deal
Value(in Rs. Billion)
Derived Valuation(in Rs.
Billion)
Derived Valuation(in % of
AUM)Societe Generale
Asset Management
SBI MF 37% 2004 56 1.61 4.35 7.77%
Robeco Canara MF 49% 2007 22 1.15 2.35 10.67%IDFC Standered Chartered 100% 2008 145.79 8.31 8.31 5.70%
Religare Lotus AMC 100% 2008 54.58 1.5 1.50 2.75%L&T Finance DBS Chola MF 100% 2009 30 0.45 0.45 1.50%
Nomura LIC MF 35% 2009 324.1 2.8 8.00 2.47%T Rowe Price UTI AMC 26% 2010 694.44 6.5 25.00 3.60%Nippon Life Reliance 26% 2012 842.99 14.5 55.77 6.62%L&T Finance Fidelity India 100% 2012 88.81 5.5 5.50 6.19%
Invesco Religare 49% 2012 146 4.65 9.49 6.50%HDFC MF Morgan Stanley 100% 2013 32.9 1.7 1.70 5.17%
Nippon Life Reliance 9% 2014 1288.88 6.57 73.00 5.66%Dewan Housing Premerica 50% 2014 20.6 0.24 0.48 2.33%
Nippon Life Reliance 14% 2015 1510.06 11.96 85.43 5.66%
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RiskRisk
88
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Risks
Economic Scenario
Alternative investment opportunity
Exit of KMPs
Regulatory changes
Retention of quality people
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Source of InformationSource of Information
99
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Sources of information :
•AMFI •RHP of Reliance Nippon •Mutualfundsindia•Various AMCs website and their disclosure
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