overview of the bc and regional population projections...

Overview of the BC and Regional Population Projections

2011 to 2036 September 2011

PEOPLE 36 (Population Extrapolation for Organizational Planning with Less Error) is BC Stats’ latest population projection. This projection covers the period 2011 to 2036, with information available for numerous provincial geographies including Local Health Area, Health Service Delivery Area, Health Authority, School District, College Region, Regional District and Development Region. Projection details are available at http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/pop/popstart.asp For more information on the PEOPLE 36 projections, visit the BC Stats website at http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca or contact the Demographic Analysis section of BC Stats at 250-216-2291.

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Overview of the BC and Regional Population Projections, 2011 to 2036 BC Stats

BC Stats, Ministry of Labour, Citizens’ Services and Open Government Page 1

Table of Contents

BRITISH COLUMBIA POPULATION PROJECTIONS .............................................................. 2

GRANDPARENT BOOM ......................................................................................................................................................... 2

MIGRATION THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR ...................................................................................................................... 2

NATURAL DECREASE EXPECTED .......................................................................................................................................... 3

A DEMOGRAPHIC “TIME BOMB” ......................................................................................................................................... 3

SHARE OF BC “GOING TO SCHOOL” DECLINES ................................................................................................................... 3

FEWER YOUNG ADULTS IN THE SHORT TERM ...................................................................................................................... 4

GREAT BEGINNINGS FOR THOSE STARTING OUT ................................................................................................................. 4

SETTLING DOWN BUT STILL GROWING................................................................................................................................. 4

COMPETITION FOR TOP POSITIONS ...................................................................................................................................... 4

CAN WE AFFORD TO RETIRE EARLY? .................................................................................................................................... 5

SENIOR AGE GROUP BECOMING LARGER ............................................................................................................................. 5

HEALTH COSTS RISE WITH LONGEVITY ................................................................................................................................ 5

BRITISH COLUMBIA REGIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS ....................................... 6

REGIONAL DISTRICT POPULATION GROWTH ..................................................................................................................... 6

DEVELOPMENT REGION POPULATION GROWTH ................................................................................................................ 7

REGIONAL DISTRICT POPULATION 65+ .............................................................................................................................. 7

DEVELOPMENT REGION POPULATION 65+ ......................................................................................................................... 8



British Columbia Population Projections The increasing size and changing characteristics of our population creates shifting demand for public services such as schools, medical and care facilities, and transportation systems. As well, marketing strategies of businesses are greatly influenced by the size and structure of the population. As a result, reliable population projections are an essential tool to provide reasonable scenarios of our future growth for planners in both the private and public sectors. However, it should be emphasized that, as with any projection or forecast, this projection represents only what could happen given the assumptions, not what absolutely will happen.

British Columbia faces unique challenges within Canada, as it increases its share of the national population. Some of the major issues emerging in our province include:

• managing population growth that is putting pressure on our urban communities from increasing densification and rural areas declining in population and aging rapidly;

• a health care system that must meet the needs of a growing and aging population; and

• economic and income disparities between our province's regions and people.

The following are some demographic highlights from PEOPLE Projection 36:

Grandparent Boom

Figure 1: B.C. Population by Single Year of Age and Sex: 2010 and 2036

The British Columbia population is getting larger and older. Between 2010 and 2036, the population will increase by about 35.9%. The median age of the population will increase from 40.8 to 45.4 years.

Migration the most important factor

Figure 2: Components of B.C. Population Change

The major factor driving population growth over this period will be migration to British Columbia. International migration will account for 77.4% of the population gain, followed by interprovincial migration at 17.3%, and natural increase (births minus deaths) at about 5.3%.

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Natural decrease expected Figure 3: B.C. Births and Deaths

Even though the number of births in British Columbia will continue to rise, the contribution of natural change to the overall population growth will decline. By 2028 the number of deaths is expected to exceed the number of births. This represents a fundamental transformation in B.C.’s demographic structure as the natural increase becomes a natural decrease.

A Demographic “Time Bomb” Much has been written on the coming demographic rift, as baby boomers move their way out of the workforce and into retirement. It is expected that the strongest growth will occur in the older age groups in the first ten years, particularly the 65 to 74 year-olds. In the first ten years alone, these “young seniors” are projected to increase by just over 200,000 (up 58%). Figure 4 illustrates the movement of today’s 45 to 49 year-olds (the peak of the “baby boom”) over the next twenty years. The circled points show the movement of a sub-population through time; in this case, the height of the baby boom.

It can first be observed in the number of 45 to 49 year-olds in 2010. Note the contrast to the group of 40 to 44 year-olds immediately preceding it. This translates into nearly 44,000 fewer persons in their early forties compared to those in their late forties. Ten years later in 2020, the peak can be found in the 55 to 59 year-olds followed by another trough in the 50 to 54 year-olds and similarly for 2030.

Figure 4: BC Population: 2010, 2020 and 2030

Share of BC “going to school” declines Figure 5: B.C. Population: 5 to 17

The number of school aged (5-17 years) children will decline slightly over the next four years, but will then begin a slow increase up to current levels by 2016. However, the school

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aged population will make up a progressively smaller proportion of the overall population of the province, contracting somewhat from 13.8% in 2010 to 12.6% in 2036.

Fewer young adults in the short term Figure 6: B.C. Population 18 to 24

Reflecting the declining numbers of school aged children in the near term, young adults aged 18 to 24 years are expected to decline until 2021, but then increase through to the end of the projection. The group’s share of total population will decline quite sharply at first, stabilize, then begin to increase for the last ten years of the period.

Great beginnings for those starting out Figure 7: B.C. Population 25 to 34

The population aged 25-34, which is generally associated with first time household formation and entry into the core working ages, is expected to increase in absolute numbers for the first decade of the projection, then decline until the last few years of the projection period.

Settling down but still growing Figure 8: B.C. Population 35 to 44

After a steady decline since 2000, the population currently aged 35-44 (individuals considered part of the core working age cohort) is expected to show steady growth over most of the projection. However, it’s forecast to once again start shrinking around 2030.

Competition for top positions The mature labour force age (45-54 years) population has shown high growth over the last two decades, based on the influence of an aging baby boom generation and migration. This will have repercussions on the labour force, especially in terms of meeting career goals. Many people in this age group have competed for a limited number of higher level jobs, a situation that should ease slightly after 2015 with the declining absolute number and share of the group relative to the total population. In the last 15 years of the projection, the magnitude of this age group will increase again, along with its share of the total population.

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Figure 9: B.C. Population: 45 to 54

Can we afford to retire early? Both the share and size of the 55 to 64 year-old age group will noticeably rise until 2021. If early retirement (before 65) becomes popular and, probably most important, affordable, the impact may be felt by increased turnover in the labour market and greater demand for retirement housing and services.

Figure 10: B.C. Population 55 to 64

Senior age group becoming larger The overall retirement age (65+) population count and its share of total population will continue to increase significantly over the projection period (from 15.0 per cent in 2010 to 23.7 per cent in 2036). This will result in a significant increase in regionally focused

demand for community services for this age group.

Figure 11: B.C. Population: 65 Years and Up

Health costs rise with longevity Figure 12: B.C. Population: 80 Years and Up

The very senior (80+) population will also increase significantly, growing from 4.2 per cent of the population in 2010 to 7.4 per cent in 2036. This increase will have a significant impact on health care expenditures given the higher per capita health costs associated with people older than 80.

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British Columbia Regional Population Projections

Regional District Population Growth There are substantial disparities with respect to projected growth among the 29 British Columbia Regional Districts. With exceptions of Peace River (55) and Stikine (59), the northern coastal regions of the province will likely see slower growth rates than most others in the province.

Figure 13: PEOPLE 36 Regional District Population Growth, 2010 to 2036

Source: BC Stats and Statistics Canada



Development Region Population Growth The Mainland-Southwest region is expected to experience healthy growth over the 2010 to 2036 period. Slower growth in the other regions is largely due to reductions in natural resource extraction and processing activity. The Northeast region is expected to benefit from activities in the energy sector.

Figure 14: PEOPLE 36 Development Region Population Growth, 2010 to 2036

Regional District Population 65+ There are regional differences with respect to age as well. Currently, the population 65 and over (as a percent of total population) is much smaller in most of the remote areas, and greater in the more populous, southern regions of the province. This is largely a combination of the greater access to services (particularly those related to health care) in the larger centres, and the more pleasant climate of the southern regions, which attracts the elderly looking for a place to retire. The Regional District chart (figure 15 on the following page) indicates that some regions will experience proportionately larger increases in the percent of population over 65. In many of these cases, this is the result of differential rates of migration to or from an area. Migrants tend to be younger than the population at large. Hence, in regions of high net inflows of population the aging process is slowed. Alternatively, where there is a net outflow, population aging accelerates. For example, the Mount Waddington, Stikine and Powell River regions are all expected to see declines in total population but substantial increases in the 65 and over population.

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Figure 15: Regional District Population 65 and over as a Percent of the Total Population

Percent

Development Region Population 65+ On a larger scale, the Development Regions show a similar pattern of a more aged population in the south. However, the regions to the north will see proportionately larger increases in the share of the population over 65.

Figure 17: Development Region Population 65 Years and Over as a Percent of the Total Population

Percent

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Northern Rockies Peace River

Squamish-Lillooet Fraser Valley

Central Coast Greater Vancouver Fraser-Fort George Thompson-Nicola Bulkley-Nechako

Central Okanagan Kitimat-Stikine

Alberni-Clayoquot Strathcona

Skeena-Queen Charlotte Comox Valley

Cariboo Central Kootenay North Okanagan Cowichan Valley

Nanaimo East Kootenay

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BC 2010: 14.9%

BC 2036: 23.7%

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1986 2010 2036



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