overview on aviation industry and mro&oem in thailand
TRANSCRIPT
Overview on Aviation Industry and
MRO&OEM in Thailand
-----------------------------Glot Sanalaksana Quality Assurance Department Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand August 2018
Demand Conditions
Air Traffic
Fleet Forecast
Air Traffic in Thailand
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
• The growth in aircraft movements of 12.32% is
almost 4 times the global CAGR of 3.33% from
2006 to 2016 whereas Passenger Traffic has grown
at 11.64% CAGR in the same period.
• Thailand’s air passenger traffic grew threefold in the past 10 years from 2006 to 2016. The
growth, which was modest until 2010, took off in 2010 and has been going up at pace since then.
63
Demand Conditions
Air Traffic
Fleet Forecast
Thailand Fleet Forecast
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Nu
mb
er
of
Air
cra
fts
Others
B777
B737
A380
A350
A330
A320
A319
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
2017
Existing
Fleet
Operating
Fleet
2037 2017 - 2037
2.6X
with 4.8%
CAGR
811
314
Thailand Fleet Forecast (2017 – 37)
• The growth in Thailand fleet is majorly
seen due to increase in narrow body
aircrafts (A320 & B737 series) by
volume.
• Thailand currently has an operating fleet of 314 aircrafts and this is expected to grow at a CAGR
of 4.86% over the next 20 years to reach 811 aircrafts in 2037
Related and
Supporting Industry
MRO
OEM
MRO
OEM
New Engines of Growth
Thailand MRO Spending • Major chunk of engine MRO & component MRO business goes overseas to Malaysia,
Singapore, Philippines etc.
• Close to 60% of Thailand’s MRO spending goes overseas, while the remaining 40%
stays within Thailand
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
Thailand MRO Spending Growth (2017-2037) 2017 MRO Scenario
1.6 B
0.97B
2.94 B With 5.4% CAGR
Aerospace MRO Industry Output
5.4% - 9% CAGR
$14.5 - $24B
(2017 – 2037)
MRO
MRO Manpower Forecast
• This includes focusing on engine and airframe MRO to capture 3% market from the rest of ASEAN
• This can lead to the creation of additional 8,610 additional jobs, including 5,740 technician and engineer jobs and 2,870 jobs in the support functions over the next 20 years
• This includes impact of U-Tapao MRO center and component repair centers of the top 5 recommended components
• In total, 4,066 new jobs can be created, which include 2,711 technician and engineer jobs and 1,355 jobs in the support functions over 20 year period
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Aerospace OEM Industry Output
3.7% - 5.2% CAGR
$47.5 - $57B
(2017 – 2037)
OEM
OEM Manpower Forecast
• The scenario 2 assumes that Thailand can increase their global market share to 0.5% by 2037
• If this can be achieved, an additional 1,184 new jobs can be created over and above the base case scenario.
• This scenario assumes that Thailand can increase their global market share to 0.6% by 2037
• This will lead to the creation of an additional 3,500 new jobs over and above the base case scenario.
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Targeted Aerospace MRO segments
Landing
Gear Wheels & Brakes Engine Fuel &
Control IFE APU
(A319/320/A321) neo
B737MAX
B787
A350
A380
CFM LEAP1A
CFM LEAP1B
RR Trent 800, 1000
RR Trent XWB
IAE V2500
Airframe
MRO
Component
MRO
Engine
MRO
CAAT Repair Station Approval Process
Pre-Application Meeting
Formal Application
Document Evaluation
Demonstration and Inspection
Certification
Targeted Aerospace Manufacturing segments
Primes (Integration)
Tier 4 (Material
Manufacturing & Support
Processes)
Tier 1 (Assembly & Testing)
Tier 3 (Build to Print)
Tier 2 (Design & Build)
• Airframe prime • Engine prime
• Airframe assemblies • Avionics • Engine components • Components
• Components & Parts manufacturing
• Materials
• Steel
• Titanium alloys
• Aircraft Tires
• Composites
• Manufacturing support services
• Assembly, Design & testing • Build (Manufacturing)
Aerospace OEM sectors
in Thailand with high
growth opportunities
Manufacturing Standard and Certification
Future Plans of Thai Aerospace MRO & OEM
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
MRO OEM
Init
iati
ves
Init
iati
ves
Init
iati
ves
Ince
nti
ves
Re
gula
tio
ns
Pillar 1 Pillar 3 Pillar 2
Initiatives 1. Aerospace Industry Group
under Federation of Thai Industry 2. National Aerospace
Committees & Coordinating Office
3. Talent Development 4. Supporting Domestic
Companies 5. Research & Technology
Development 6. Laboratories & Certification
Programs 7. Offset Policy for Aerospace
Government Procurements
Incentives 1. Tax – based & Non tax based 2. Tailored packages 3. Financial Grants & Capital
subsidies
Regulation 1. Revision of Limitation on
Foreign Equity Ownership <49% 2. Restriction on Aerofoils
manufacturing 3. Import Duty exemptions on
aircraft & related parts 4. Delays with Foreign repair
station certificate 5. Bilateral Aviation Safety
Agreement 6. Foreign Employment &
Property Ownership 7. Conversion of Aircraft
Technician License to Thai
Thank You www.caat.or.th