WASCAL MRP/GRP Advisory Boards Meeting November 20 - 21, 2012, Elmina, Ghana

Robert ZougmoréWest Africa Program Leader CCAFS

Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security Program (CCAFS):

overview and capacity building strategy for WA

2 • 3/21/11

1. The global and African challenges

2. Program design3. Themes4. Capacity building in CCAFS5. Collaboration with WASCAL

Outline

Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change

• “Business as usual in our globally interconnected food system will not bring us food security and environmental sustainability”

• “The window of opportunity to avert a humanitarian, environmental and climate crisis is rapidly closing”

Beddington et al. (2012) Science 335: 289-290 www.ccafs.cgiar.org/commission

Challenge 1:Food security

In 15 years time there will be another billion people to feed

A billion people go hungryAnother billion suffer nutrient

deficienciesAnother billion over-consume

100% (+/- 11%) more food by 2050

Tilman et al 2011Proc. National Academy Science

With current trajectories of populations & diets

This has major implications for land cover change

Challenge 2: Adaptation to CC

Signs of Hope: Rehabilitation,

Prevention

IPCC PROJECTIONS FOR AFRICA

• CO2 enrichment• Temperature increase of 1.5 to 4 ⁰C in this

century• Fewer colder days and nights• Frequent hot days and nights• Arid areas will become drier, humid areas

wetter• Increase in droughts and floods• Sea level rise • High levels of desertification and soil

salinization in some countries

To 2090, taking 18 climate models

Four degree rise

Thornton et al. (2010) Proc. National Academy Science

>20% loss5-20% lossNo change5-20% gain>20% gain

Length of growing period (%)

Length of growing season is likely to decline..

Crop suitability will fall in many areas

Andrew Jarvis, CIAT/CCAFS

50 crops, to 2050

-95 to -31-30 to -11-10 to -101 to 2930 to 4748 to 98

% change

Historical impacts on wheat (1980-2008)

% Yield impact for wheat

Changes in growing season temperature

Lobell et al (2011)

ChinaIndiaUSRussiaFranceGlobal

• Greater frequency of extreme events• More severe extreme events

% p

rice

incr

ease

201

0-20

50Climate change will add greatly to price increases…

Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI

Maize Rice Wheat

Impact of weather shocks

Oxfam (2012) based on D. Willenbockel (2012)

Environmental challenge

Vermeulen et al. 2012 Annual Review of Environment and Resources (in press)

19-29% global GHGs

from food systems

18 • 3/21/11

Program Design

19 • 3/21/11

The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) is a strategic collaboration between the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) and the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP).

CCAFS: the partnership

20 • 3/21/11CCAFS in WA: working in partnershipRegional organizations (e.g. CORAF, FARA, ASARECA)Continental initiatives (e.g. CAADP, ECOWAP,, PAU)Meteorological, development, capacity organizations(e.g. AGRHYMET, NMO)National research & extensionState sectoral institutionsNGOs, Private sector, FOs

21 • 3/21/11

1. Identify and develop pro-poor

adaptation and mitigation

practices, technologies and

policies for agriculture and

food systems.

2.Support the inclusion of

agricultural issues in climate

change policies, and of

climate issues in agricultural

policies, at all levels.

CCAFS objectives

22 • 3/21/11

The CCAFS FrameworkAdapting Agriculture to

Climate Variability and Change

Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for:

1. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change

2. Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk

3. Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation

Improved Environmental

HealthImproved

Rural Livelihoods

Improved Food

Security

Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural

resource management, and food systems

Trade-offs and Synergies

4. Integration for Decision Making

• Linking Knowledge with Action• Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and

Planning• Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis

23 • 3/21/11

Progressive Adaptation

THE VISION

To adapt farming systems, we need to:

• Close the production gap by effectively using current technologies, practices and policies

• Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase food production potential

• Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level

24 • 3/21/11

Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies

Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climatesObjective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity

Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

25 • 3/21/11

Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

1.1

• Holistic testing of farming options (benchmark sites)

• Agricultural knowledge transfer

• Analysis of enabling policies and instit. mechanisms

Adapted farming systems

1.2

• Climate-proofed global and national breeding strategies

• Regional fora to discuss and set priorities

Breeding strategies for

climate stresses

1.3

• Knowledge for better use of germplasm for adaptation

• On-farm use of diversity to adapt

• Policies of access for benefit sharing

Species and genetic diversity

26 • 3/21/11

Farm of the Future Approach

Strengthen the adaptive capacity of farmers and AIS to climate change using climate analogue tools and adaptation practices (learning opportunities)

27 • 3/21/11

• Over 3,000 trials

• 16 crops• 20 countries• > 15

international and national institutions

New data

Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org)

28 • 3/21/11

Risk

Management

THE VISION

• Climate-related risk impedes development, leading to chronic poverty and dependency

• Actions taken now can reduce vulnerability in the short term and enhance resilience in the long term

•Improving current climate risk management will reduce obstacles to making future structural adaptations.

29 • 3/21/11

Objective One: Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level)

Objective Two: Food delivery, trade, and crisis response (Food system level)

Objective Three: Enhanced climate information and services

Managing Climate Risk · 2

30 • 3/21/11

Managing Climate Risk · 2

2.1

• Designed diversification

• Index-based risk transfer

• Anticipatory mgmt, aided by forecasts and communications

• Participatory action research

Building resilient livelihoods

2.2

• Manage price volatility via trade and storage

• Improved early warning systems

• Coordin. platform

• Food safety nets

• Post-crisis recovery

Food delivery, trade, and crisis

response

2.3

info.• Historical data

reconstruction• Downscaled, tailored

seasonal forecast predictions

• Monitor and forecast crops, rangelands, pests & diseases

services• Institutional

arrangements• Communication

processes• Capacity bldg for

providers

Climate information and services

31 • 3/21/11 Scaling up climate information services

- 42 participants (NHMS) staff trained to produce seasonal forecasts (ECOWAS countries, Agrhymet, ACMAD)

−Forecast bulletin produced disseminated

- 140 participants (33 women) (farmers, extension, NGOs staff) trained (Ségou, Yatenga, Kaffrine) to understanding seasonal forecast information & make management decisions.

- Evaluation of the seasonal forecast results with the farmers

- Strengthen the capacity of NHMS in forecasting

- Tailor climate information to the needs of farmers

32 • 3/21/11

Pro-poor Mitigation

VISION

Short-term: Identifying options feasible for smallholder mitigation and trade-offs with other outcomes

Long-term: Addressing conflict between achieving food security and agricultural mitigation

33 • 3/21/11

Objective One: Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways

Objective Two: Develop incentives and institutional arrangements

Objective Three: Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications

Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3

34 • 3/21/11

Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3

3.1

• Evaluate lowest carbon footprints for: food production, adaptation, energy production, sustainable intensification, poverty alleviation

• Assess impacts of current policies

• Develop coherent vision to guide agric dvlpt

Low-carbon development

pathways

3.2

• Test feasibility of carbon market for smallholders, focusing on best bets (SE Asia, Latin Amer)

• Assess potential non-market options

• Assess impacts on marginalized groups and women

Incentives and instit.

arrangements

3.3

• Test technological feasibility of smallholder mitigation on farms

• Dvlpt cost-effective, simple, integrated MRV.

• Assess impacts of all GHGs through their lifecycles.

On-farm mitigation

options

35 • 3/21/11

CP

Plot

Landscapes

Farming systems

Scale and boundaries

Linking to yields and food security

Mixed production systems

Management& activity data

Knowledge generation & information exchange

ICRAF, ILRI, IRRI, ICRISAT, FAO, University of Hohenheim, Global Research Alliance for Agricultural Greenhouse Gases

Measurement equipment

Need to developing a shared protocol for GHG emissions

36 • 3/21/11

IntegrationFor Decision-Making

VISION

• Provide an analytical and diagnostic framework, grounded in the policy context

• Synthesize lessons learned

• Effectively engage with rural stakeholders and decision makers

• Communicate likely effects of specific policies and interventions

• Build partners’ capacity

37 • 3/21/11

T2: Risk Management

T3: Pro-poor Mitigation

Rural Livelihoods

Environment

Food Security

Integration for

Decision Making

38 • 3/21/11

Objective One: Linking knowledge with action

Objective Two: Data and tools for analysis and planning

Objective Three: Refining frameworks for policy analysis

39 • 3/21/11

Integration for Decision Making · 4

4.1

• Regional scenarios

• Vulnerability assessments

• Approaches to decision making informed by good science

• Approaches to benefit vulnerable, disadvantaged groups

Linking knowledge with

action

4.2

• Integrated assessment framework, toolkits, and databases to assess CC impacts

• Baselines, data generation & collation, scoping studies, and tool development

• Socially-differentiated decision aids and info for different stakeholders

Data and tools for analysis and

planning

4.3

• Assess CC impacts at global & regional levels on: producers, consumers, natural resources, and international transactions

• Analyze likely effects of scientific adap. and mitig. options, national policies

• Analyze differential impacts of options on different social groups

Frameworks for policy analysis

Regional socio-economic scenarios for West Africa

What has been done?

• Four scenarios have been created with actors from governments, private sector, civil society, academia and media including support from regional bodies ECOWAS and CORAF

• Scenarios explore food security, environmental change and livelihoods under different contexts of state, private sector and civil society power and policy priorities

     Policy driver     Short-

termpriorities

Long-termpriorities

 Dominant Force

StateActors

Governments facilitate short-term gain: cash,

carbon and calories 

 A slow and painful

transition to sustainable

states

  Non-stateActors

Ungoverned, quick and chaotic

development; dealing with crises at the expense of investment

A struggle between civil

society and the private sector

that is ultimately productive

• Scenarios inform global agricultural economic models (IMPACT, GLOBIOM) linked to climate models

Focusing on women farmers

• Climate-related shocks have had much greater negative impacts on women than men

• Women have less access to climate information than men

• Women crucial for food security – when have more power, access and earnings, then more income allocated to food, child nutrition and education

Where is the research being done? >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices

The CGIAR Research Centers

Lead center - CIAT

Place-based field research work

Indo-Gangetic Plains:There is risk of heat stress, melting glaciers, and sea level rise; the intensity and probability of extreme events will likely increase.

Regional director:Pramod Aggarwal

East Africa:Climate change will likely intensify surface and groundwater stress.

Regional director:James Kinyangi

West Africa:Extreme rainfall variability impedes precipitation predictions, but the Sahel will likely experience shorter growing periods.

Regional director:Robert Zougmoré

PARTNERS

CCAFS (CGIAR

+ ESSP)

FO/CBO

PRIVATE

RECs (CILSS, INSAH, etc.)

CSO

NARESARIs

UNIVs

NGOs

PARTICIPATORY ACTION RESEARCH

Objective: Test, adapt and monitor strategic innovations supporting climate-smart agriculture

Approach: particular actions, interventions tested and implemented simultaneously with local partners, researchers & development workers cooperating closely

Research user driven for Science

1. increases productivity

2. resilience (adaptation)

3. reduces GHG

(mitigation)

And enhances achievement

of national food security

and development goals

(FAO, 2010)WWW.FAO.ORG/CLIMATECHANGE/CLIMATESMART/EN

What is Climate Smart Agriculture?

Agriculture that sustainably:

Capacity building in CCAFS

People or organizations increasing their own ability to achieve their objectives effectively and efficiently.

A Definition

• Adaptation requires embedded local capacity, not external solutions

• CCAFS aims to enhance both (a) research capacities and (b) capacities to link knowledge and action

The CCAFS Vision

Capacity enhancement in CCAFS

Capacity enhancement in CCAFS

For research partners to generate useful data, tools, and results.

Post-grad students, meteorological services, climate and agricultural research institutes, field workers...

e.g. CLIFF Climate Food and Farming Network

For policy partners to demand and use data, tools, and results.Governments (policy makers, climate negotiators), civil society, development organizations, farmers’ organizations, private sector.

e.g. User-driven regional scenarios

Examples of global capacity enhancement work in CCAFSResearchers’ capacity: The Climate

Food and Farming Research Network (CLIFF) supports PhD fieldwork & links students to the development of a global GHG protocol for smallholders www.cliff.life.ku.dk

Research users’ capacity: The Food Climate Research Network (FCRN) provides updates on research and practice for practitioners, & a forum for problem-solving www.fcrn.org.uk

CAPACITY BUILDING STRATEGY IN WAEnable stakeholders to effectively using scientific

knowledge, tools & methods for informed planning & decision making

Focus on capacity of research (NARS, Universities…) and ability of countries’ negotiators and CSOs, farmers’ organizations, to contribute effectively to debates in the international arena:

Short-term capacity building: train people in the skills needed to undertake the research.

Long-term capacity building: liaise with other actors who can help develop curricula and provide graduate training (e.g. WASCAL).

Working relationships with regional & national actors (e.g. AGRHYMET-INSAH-CILSS) contribute to strengthen their capacity -and that of national partners- to accomplish their mandate of reducing climate risks for improved food security.

• Possibilities for masters & PhDs in CCAFS PAR research work (collaboration with Univ.)

• Additional research themes of good match for WASCAL-sponsored PhD students (CCAFS TLs)

• Access to CCAFS sites• Access to data sets, • Access to CCAFS publications (report series,

working papers, etc.)• Access to meetings, national/regional

networks• Start–up

logistics/contacts/introductions/advice

 

CCAFS and WASCAL

WASCAL MRP/GRP Advisory Boards Meeting November 20 - 21, 2012, Elmina, Ghana

www.ccafs.org; infoccafswa@cgiar.org