Ozone Depletion and Ozone Depletion and Climate ChangeClimate Change

OutlineOutline

Ozone DepletionOzone Depletion Initiatives in responding to the ozone problemInitiatives in responding to the ozone problem NegotiationsNegotiations Montreal Protocol, 1987.Montreal Protocol, 1987.

Climate ChangeClimate Change IntroductionIntroduction Negotiating global response: Issues Negotiating global response: Issues UNFCCC, 1992 UNFCCC, 1992 Kyoto Protocol, 1997.Kyoto Protocol, 1997. Sum.Sum.

OZONE DEPLETION [Vienna convention (1985 )and OZONE DEPLETION [Vienna convention (1985 )and Montreal Protocol, 1987]Montreal Protocol, 1987]

Destruction of the Ozone LayerDestruction of the Ozone Layer

Solving/Responding to the Ozone ProblemSolving/Responding to the Ozone Problem

Two major initiatives: U.S and globalTwo major initiatives: U.S and globalU.S. initiatives: U.S. initiatives: a) Domestic fronta) Domestic frontReady to ban before international actionReady to ban before international actionPublic concern and organized pressure?Public concern and organized pressure?

b) Internationallyb) Internationally 1972 U.S. raised issue at UN Conference on Human Env. at 1972 U.S. raised issue at UN Conference on Human Env. at

Stockholm; call for Stockholm; call for research on the ozone problem.research on the ozone problem. U.S. tabled issue at NATO Conference in 1975 [EPA U.S. tabled issue at NATO Conference in 1975 [EPA

initiative].initiative]. 1977 UNEP’s coordinating committee on Ozone layer.1977 UNEP’s coordinating committee on Ozone layer. Negotiations on a binding agreement began in 1981.Negotiations on a binding agreement began in 1981.

-difficulties-difficulties

Difficult Negotiations:Difficult Negotiations:- scientific uncertainty still high.- scientific uncertainty still high.

E.g. 1984 international scientific program still E.g. 1984 international scientific program still lacked lacked a consensus by 1985. a consensus by 1985.

- Large producers: Britain, France, Italy, and Spain, - Large producers: Britain, France, Italy, and Spain, therefore, resisted stringent Measures vs. countries thattherefore, resisted stringent Measures vs. countries thatwanted strong controls [Toronto Group: Canada, Finland,wanted strong controls [Toronto Group: Canada, Finland,Norway, SwedenNorway, Sweden - 1985 Vienna Convention signed. Provided for:- 1985 Vienna Convention signed. Provided for:

cooperation in research, monitoring and cooperation in research, monitoring and information information exchange exchange

- 1985 discovery of ozone “hole” in Antarctica - 1985 discovery of ozone “hole” in Antarctica

Montreal Protocol, 1987.Montreal Protocol, 1987.

AimAim: regulate and phase out Ozone Depleting : regulate and phase out Ozone Depleting Substances [ODS]Substances [ODS]

NegotiationsNegotiationsa) impact of domestic actors [U.S. industry]a) impact of domestic actors [U.S. industry]b) b) Epistemic community- inconclusive Epistemic community- inconclusive

opinion [fed into tactics of industry opinion [fed into tactics of industry lobbyists.lobbyists.- By 1987, near unanimity on adverse effects, - By 1987, near unanimity on adverse effects,

gave credibility to proponents of ban.gave credibility to proponents of ban.c) Issue played into N.-S. divide on Env. & c) Issue played into N.-S. divide on Env. & DevelopmentDevelopment

How they managed to secure an agreementHow they managed to secure an agreement Financial mechanisms Financial mechanisms Support diffusion of technology on substitutes for Support diffusion of technology on substitutes for ODS in developing countries.ODS in developing countries. Role of hegemon [ U.S. took lead]Role of hegemon [ U.S. took lead]

Carrot and stick strategyCarrot and stick strategy- cushioned developing countries [10 years delay]- cushioned developing countries [10 years delay]- Control of trade in ODS with non-participants.- Control of trade in ODS with non-participants.

Dramatic opportunity: possibility of substitutes for CFCs, Dramatic opportunity: possibility of substitutes for CFCs, so industry softened, especially with financial mechanism so industry softened, especially with financial mechanism promising a market in developing countries.promising a market in developing countries.

Industrial countries cut production and consumption of Industrial countries cut production and consumption of CFCs to 50% of 1986 levels by 1999 CFCs to 50% of 1986 levels by 1999

Significance Significance First application of principle of common but First application of principle of common but

differentiated responsibilities.differentiated responsibilities. Financial mechanism first of its type in IEA.Financial mechanism first of its type in IEA.

Montreal Protocol Success?Montreal Protocol Success?

Developing countries not prohibited [but Developing countries not prohibited [but then it was the only way they’d participate]then it was the only way they’d participate]

Compliance problems [illegal trade-RussiaCompliance problems [illegal trade-Russia

Post-Montreal Protocol developmentsPost-Montreal Protocol developments

Shift towards complete phaseout of CFCsShift towards complete phaseout of CFCs- Further development in scientific evidence- Further development in scientific evidence

- 1988 Ozone Trends Panel released study - 1988 Ozone Trends Panel released study showing human-generated chlorine species showing human-generated chlorine species responsible for decrease in ozone.responsible for decrease in ozone.

- In U.S., Du Pont’s announced a CFC manufacturing - In U.S., Du Pont’s announced a CFC manufacturing stop by century end; so U.S. called for a complete stop by century end; so U.S. called for a complete phaseout by 2000.phaseout by 2000.- Britain: softening due to pressure by environmentalists - Britain: softening due to pressure by environmentalists and parliament. PM hosted a meeting where EU and parliament. PM hosted a meeting where EU resolved to back U.S. in calling for phaseout.resolved to back U.S. in calling for phaseout.

CLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE IntroductionIntroduction

Problem = global warmingProblem = global warming HistoryHistory

• adoption numerous declarations at regional adoption numerous declarations at regional conferences to reduce GHGs.conferences to reduce GHGs.

• Meeting of Legal and Policy Experts on Protection Meeting of Legal and Policy Experts on Protection of the Atmosphere in Ottawa 1989 considered of the Atmosphere in Ottawa 1989 considered elements of climate change convention.elements of climate change convention.

• IPPC 1990IPPC 1990• UN General Assembly initiated negotiations in UN General Assembly initiated negotiations in

1990,1990,• 1992, UNFCCC at Rio Conference.1992, UNFCCC at Rio Conference.

Greenhouse Gases / air pollutantsGreenhouse Gases / air pollutants ExamplesExamples: :

Carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide, Methane Carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide, Methane (CH4), Nitrous oxide (N2O), GHG: (CH4), Nitrous oxide (N2O), GHG: hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbonshydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), CFCs.and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), CFCs.

SourceSources – natural and anthropogenic]s – natural and anthropogenic] Natural occurrence: Natural occurrence:

• water vapor, swamps- methane; water vapor, swamps- methane; • volcanic eruptions [sulfur dioxide] volcanic eruptions [sulfur dioxide]

Anthropogenically induced (i.e. Human activities): Anthropogenically induced (i.e. Human activities): • combustion process of fossil fuels.combustion process of fossil fuels.• decomposition of organic wastes. decomposition of organic wastes. • Agriculture. Agriculture. • deforestation – loss of carbon sink]. deforestation – loss of carbon sink].

ImpactsImpacts

Health: pollution and vector-born diseasesHealth: pollution and vector-born diseases EconomyEconomy

Agriculture: Agriculture: • most sensitive to weather variability and extremesmost sensitive to weather variability and extremes

Flooding: Infrastructure and property damagesFlooding: Infrastructure and property damages Water scarcityWater scarcity Loss of biodiversity Loss of biodiversity

Political [consequence of how no. 2 above is Political [consequence of how no. 2 above is handled]handled]

- Environmental refugees?- Environmental refugees? Differentiated impactsDifferentiated impacts

Developing countries at greater risk: Low capacity for Developing countries at greater risk: Low capacity for adaptationadaptation

Issues in forging a global responseIssues in forging a global response Climate scienceClimate science

• What happens, why and with what impact? What happens, why and with what impact? • What is the best way forward [consequence of What is the best way forward [consequence of

above]?above]? Controversies: examplesControversies: examples

• Global warming of benefit (to some)? Global warming of benefit (to some)? new agricultural frontiers (Russia, Canada)new agricultural frontiers (Russia, Canada) save life from cold spells?save life from cold spells?

• Sulfur dioxide [high or low levels?]Sulfur dioxide [high or low levels?] Information problems [complexity and uncertainty]Information problems [complexity and uncertainty] Auditing –who, and how to, count [see assigned Auditing –who, and how to, count [see assigned

reading] **reading] **

auditingauditing

IssuesIssues Links to economic and political interestsLinks to economic and political interests

e.g. Bush: implementing it would gravely damage the e.g. Bush: implementing it would gravely damage the

US economy.US economy.

Unequal adjustment costs Unequal adjustment costs Impacts on setting common emission standards, for Impacts on setting common emission standards, for

example,example,

differences in industrialization [U.S. vs differences in industrialization [U.S. vs China/India]China/India]

Cleavages:Cleavages: development and vulnerability. development and vulnerability. Vulnerability – small island states [e.g. Vanuatu, Vulnerability – small island states [e.g. Vanuatu,

Nauru] Nauru] strong convention. strong convention. DevelopmentDevelopment

Development divide: LDCs-politics of self-preservation.Development divide: LDCs-politics of self-preservation. Their negotiating positionTheir negotiating position..

• International cooperation is essential, but International cooperation is essential, but industrialized countries should accept the industrialized countries should accept the main responsibility main responsibility

• Industrialized countries should transfer funds and Industrialized countries should transfer funds and technology to help developing technology to help developing

countries countries • International action on climate change fine, but International action on climate change fine, but

must not interfere with the sovereign right of states must not interfere with the sovereign right of states to develop their own natural resources.to develop their own natural resources.

How they managed to secure agreementHow they managed to secure agreement

Principle on Common but Differentiated Responsibilities.Principle on Common but Differentiated Responsibilities.

Financial Financial assistance mechanismassistance mechanism The Global Environmental Facility (GEF) to finance The Global Environmental Facility (GEF) to finance

incremental costs of climate change, biodiversity, and incremental costs of climate change, biodiversity, and desertification projects in developing countries.desertification projects in developing countries.

UNFCCC, 1992.UNFCCC, 1992. stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the

atmosphere by initiating processes that modify atmosphere by initiating processes that modify anthropogenic activities that generate GHGs.anthropogenic activities that generate GHGs.

UNFCCC: ProvisionsUNFCCC: Provisions

states to do GHG inventories, mainstream climate states to do GHG inventories, mainstream climate change in national strategies/policieschange in national strategies/policies

Help for developing countries in meeting “incremental Help for developing countries in meeting “incremental costs.”costs.”

Scientific processes continue through IPCC.Scientific processes continue through IPCC. Institutions: COPs (biennial); IPCC.Institutions: COPs (biennial); IPCC. N/B. No specific actions on reductions; left to protocols N/B. No specific actions on reductions; left to protocols

[impact of uncertain science; responsibility for costs; [impact of uncertain science; responsibility for costs; U.S. opposition].U.S. opposition].

Set guidance for implementing ConventionSet guidance for implementing Convention- Kyoto Protocol, 1997- Kyoto Protocol, 1997

Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol

Aim:Aim: tighten commitment on reduction of GHGs tighten commitment on reduction of GHGs.. ProvisionsProvisions

BindinBinding emission reduction targets for industrialized g emission reduction targets for industrialized countries onlycountries only• reduce emissions (6 target gases) by a total of 5% reduce emissions (6 target gases) by a total of 5%

of 1990 levels by 2008-2012.of 1990 levels by 2008-2012.

Implement elaborate policies and measures to Implement elaborate policies and measures to meet reductions objective.meet reductions objective.

Implementation Mechanisms (3)Implementation Mechanisms (3)

Flexible MechanismsFlexible Mechanisms (Favors to types of countries(Favors to types of countries

Energy efficient, e.g. Japan. Cheaper to invest in less Energy efficient, e.g. Japan. Cheaper to invest in less efficient states than to undertake reduction at home.efficient states than to undertake reduction at home.

Countries below their permitted level, e.g. Russia.)Countries below their permitted level, e.g. Russia.) Emissions tradingEmissions trading

set a quantitative limit on the global emissions of a set a quantitative limit on the global emissions of a greenhouse gas and allow emissions permits to be greenhouse gas and allow emissions permits to be traded like ordinary goods and services. traded like ordinary goods and services.

Joint ImplementationsJoint Implementations Country with binding target receives credits for emission Country with binding target receives credits for emission

abatement projects in another country with a binding abatement projects in another country with a binding target.target.

EmissionEmission aggregation. aggregation.• Two or more states agree to fulfil their commitment by Two or more states agree to fulfil their commitment by

aggregating their combined emissions.aggregating their combined emissions.• Must remain within their total assigned limits as a Must remain within their total assigned limits as a

group. group.

Clean Development MechanismClean Development Mechanism Countries with targets receive credits for Countries with targets receive credits for

abatement projects in developing.abatement projects in developing. ImplementationImplementation

EU Carbon Trading ProgramEU Carbon Trading Program• Cap and trade in CO2 emissions for utilities Cap and trade in CO2 emissions for utilities

and other industriesand other industries JI projects in Eastern EuropeJI projects in Eastern Europe CDMCDM

• China-ItalyChina-Italy US$1.4 million over 5 years to plant 3,000 US$1.4 million over 5 years to plant 3,000

hectares of trees in Aohan Banner in north hectares of trees in Aohan Banner in north ChinaChina

Conclusion.Conclusion. Evaluating participation in climate change.Evaluating participation in climate change.

Is U.S. “party” to climate change regimeIs U.S. “party” to climate change regime• Proxy to flexible mechanisms?Proxy to flexible mechanisms?• Clean Act: worse than other national legislations?Clean Act: worse than other national legislations?

Potential sources of difficult in contracting for a Potential sources of difficult in contracting for a climate change regime?climate change regime?

Why would one expect contracting to be more Why would one expect contracting to be more protracted under climate change than any of the protracted under climate change than any of the

other two air pollution regimesother two air pollution regimes??