p redictability an d d ynamics o f w eather systems in the a tlantic- e uropean sector
DESCRIPTION
Moist Processes and Diabatic Rossby Waves. European Windstorms. Severe Convection. Upper-level Rossby wave trains: triggering, propagation and wave-breaking. High Impact Weather. Mediterranean Cyclones. Tropical Cyclones. Ensembles and Adaptivity. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Predictability ANd Dynamics Of Weather Systems
in the Atlantic-European Sector
Severe Convection
European Windstorms
Mediterranean CyclonesTropical
Cyclones
PANDOWAEDFG Forschergruppe (Research Unit) 896
PANDOWAE
Motivation
Mitigation of impact of severe weather requires accurate numerical weather forecasts
Accuracy of weather forecasts limited not only by technical factors but also by gaps in our knowledge of the processes involved and their representation in forecast models
www.wmo.int/thorpex
PANDOWAE
Motivation
PANDOWAE initiative developed directly out of THORPEX
Aim of PANDOWAE:
“ to advance our knowledge and understanding of the dynamical processes responsible for the development of high impact weather systems, to elucidate the factors that limit the predictability of such systems, and to contribute the basic research that will lead to the development of innovative interactive weather forecasting systems”
PANDOWAE aims to carry out basic research with strong societal and economic relevance
PANDOWAE is motivated by operational needs but not constrained by them
PANDOWAE represents a major contribution to answering some of the fundamental scientific questions posed in THORPEX
PANDOWAE
What is a DFG Research Unit?
DFG guidelines: medium-sized research group collaborating closely on specific medium-term
research project manageable number of projects that all deal with the same subject and that
can only be worked on as a group in the proposed manner topic is current and relevant, basic concept highly innovative and coherent,
justifying six year time-frame constitutive feature is cooperation between the individual proposed projects
Research Units contribute towards: providing young scientists with an opportunity to develop their research skills strengthening cooperation with non-university partners expanding international cooperation improving the infrastructure of university-based research
PANDOWAE
PANDOWAE Timeline
First Phase 2008-2011:
Funding for 3 (+1) Postdocs, 8 (+1) Ph.D. Students
Midterm review Autumn 2010
Second Phase 2011-2013
PANDOWAE
Weather Systems
1 day to 2 week weather forecasts
PANDOWAE Upper-level Rossby waves: What triggers them? How do they develop as they propagate downstream?What determines their predictability?What is their role in severe weather events?
3 Fundamental Research Themes
time
Analysed 500 hPa height anomaly
Elbe flooding
180E180W
Martius, Schwierz and Davies (2007)
heavy precipitation event
wave composites(autumn season)
days
prio
r to
the
even
t
time
PANDOWAE Moist processes and diabatic Rossby waves:How do they influence the evolution of weather systems?What is their role for predictability? How frequent are diabatic Rossby waves?
3 Fundamental Research Themes
„Lothar“: 26. Dezember 1999, 7 UTC
DRW: diabatically produced PV anomaly in lower troposphere
Wernli et al. 2002
dynamical tropopause (2 pvu)
PANDOWAE Adaptivity and Ensembles:What is the value of adaptive observations using different targeting methods? How can uncertainty be represented in ensembles in a flow-dependent way? What insights come from TIGGE for PDP questions?
3 Fundamental Research Themes
Verbunt et al. (2007)
COSMO-LEPS Flow-dependent sampling
PANDOWAE Upper-level Rossby waves: What triggers them? How do they develop as they propagate downstream?What determines their predictability?What is their role in severe weather events?
Moist processes and diabatic Rossby waves:How do they influence the evolution of weather systems?What is their role for predictability? How frequent are diabatic Rossby waves?
Adaptivity and Ensembles:What is the value of adaptive observations using different targeting methods? How can uncertainty be represented in ensembles in a flow-dependent way? What insights come from TIGGE for PDP questions?
3 Fundamental Research Themes
The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble:a multi-model, multi-analysis, multi-national ensemble prediction system
PANDOWAE
PANDOWAE Projects
PANDOWAE-ET: Sarah Jones, Doris Anwender, Christian Grams, Julia Keller, Simon Lang
PANDOWAE-VARNAER: Dieter Peters
PANDOWAE- ADENS: George Craig, Pieter Groenemeijer
Link to HALO-THORPEX / T-NAWDEX: Andreas Dörnbrack
PANDOWAE-ADOBS: Martin Weissmann, Florian Harnisch
PANDOWAE- DIAC: Heini Wernli, Maxi Böttcher, Jana Čampa
PANDOWAE-MED: Christoph Kottmeier, Ulli Corsmeier, Claus-Jürgen Lenz
PANDOWAE-Project Office: Aurelia Müller
PANDOWAE-SESUWAT: Volkmar Wirth, Hartmut Borth (Hamburg), Ilona Türschmann
PANDOWAE
Research Areas
Focus on joint research questions within the research areas
All partners contribute to more than one research area
Significant overlap between the research areas
Enhanced collaboration between partners
P1(SJ)
P2(CK/UC)
P3(HW)
P4(VW/HB)
P5(DP)
P6(GC)
P7(MW)
Rossby wave trains: generation, propagation and wave-breaking
a1 1 2 1 1 2
a2 2 1 2 1 2
a3 1 2 2 1
a4 2 1 2 1 2
a5 1 2 2 2 2
a6 2 1
Moist processes and diabatic Rossby waves
b1 1 1 2
b2 2 2 1 2
b3 1 1 1 2 1 2
b4 1
b5 1 1 2 2 1 2 2
b6 1 2
b7 1 2
b8 2 1
Ensembles and adaptivity
c1 1 1 1
c2 2 2 2 1
c3 1
c4 1 1
c5 1 2 1 2 2
PANDOWAE
PANDOWAE
Research questions will be addressed through:
Climatologies linking dynamical processes to forecast error
Joint case studies based on operational analyses and forecasts / TIGGE data and applying diagnostic techniques
Idealised and real-case modelling studies
Data denial and data impact studies
Application and further development of ensemble systems
Synergy between theoretical studies / analysis of NWP data / numerical modelling / planning and analysis of observational campaigns
Approach
PANDOWAE
First results: TTISS Presentations
Martin Weissmann et al. (DLR, Germany): Overview of T-PARC Falcon operations and first results from ECMWF data denial experimentsFlorian Harnisch and Martin Weissmann (DLR): Observation impact of dropsondeDataChristian Grams and Sarah Jones (U. Karlsruhe): The interaction of TyphoonJangmi (2008) and the midlatitude jetSimon Lang (U. Karlsruhe), Sarah Jones, Martin Leutbecher: The structure of singu-lar vectors associated with extratropical transition of tropical cyclonesDoris Anwender (U. Karlsruhe), Sarah Jones, Carla Cardinali: Data denial experiments for extratropical transitionMaxi Boettcher and Heini Wernli (U. Mainz): A case study of an explosively deepening, diabatic Rossby-wave induced cyclone: the inuence of environmental conditionsIlona Tuerschmann (U. Mainz): The role of a long-lived Rossby wave train in the Elbe flooding on 10-12th of August 2002.Heini Wernli and Jana Campa (U. Mainz): A climatological analysis of diabatic processes associated with extratropical cyclonesJulia Keller (U. Karlsruhe) Sarah Jones and Doris Anwender: Investigation of predictability during the extra-tropical transition of tropical cyclones using TIGGE
PANDOWAE
Collaboration within PANDOWAE
Joint case studies (August – October 2008)
Use of common tools (COSMO Model, ECMWF IFS, Diagnostics, ....)
Analysis of TIGGE data
Workshops
Young Scientists Meetings
9-11 June 2008Höfen
6. – 8. July 2009 in Mainz15. – 17. Dec. 2008 in Karlsruhe
16-18 Feb 2009Murnau
PANDOWAE
External partnerships
Associated Projects: DLR, Leeds, ETH
DWD
ECMWF
THORPEX
Major part of PDP WG programme
Contribution to DAOS WG
Contribution to T-PARC
Contribution to Plan for Europe
Further partners at national and international level
PANDOWAE
www.pandowae.de