pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

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PA Resources Bo Askvik, President & CEO Swedbank First Securities Nordic Energy Summit 2013 Oslo, 21 March 2013

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Page 1: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

PA Resources

Bo Askvik, President & CEO

Swedbank First Securities

Nordic Energy

Summit 2013

Oslo, 21 March 2013

Page 2: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

Today’s three topics

2

Q4

>> FOURTH QUARTER 2012

Financial highlights

>> STRENGTHENED FINANCIALS

Recapitalisation completed

>> PA RESOURCES WAY FORWARD

Strategy and investment focus

Page 3: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

Attractive Asset Portfolio

KEY FACTS:

• Oil and gas company with operations and

assets in nine countries

• Exploration, development and production

portfolio - key infrastructure assets in Africa

• Oil production in Equatorial Guinea,

Republic of Congo (Brazzaville) and Tunisia

• Average production of 7,100 bopd in Q4

2012

• 38.1 mmboe in 1P reserves, 55.7 in 2P

reserves and 142 in contingent resources

• 124 employees in Tunisia, the UK and

Sweden

• The share, convertible bond and SEK bond

are listed on NASDAQ OMX in Stockholm

22 oil and gas licences

6 producing fields

9 potentially commercial

discoveries

Operator of 11 licences

Production

Development

Exploration

3

Infrastructure hub

Page 4: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

Changes in Reserves and Resources 2012

4

Working

Interest

Net

Entitlement

End 2011:

Proven and probable reserves*

Production

Revision

1P/P90 2P/P50 1P/P90 2P/P50

39.1 60.2

-2.9

+1.9

-2.9

-1.6

-2.1

+1.3

-2.1

-1.4

25.9 40.4

End 2012: 38.1 55.7 25.1 36.9

* Reserves are classified accordingly to the SPE-PRMS 2007 guideline

KEY COMMENTS:

• Improved 1P to 2P ratio from 65 to 68%

• 1P reserves impacted by;

• Increase of 1P volume for the Aseng field

(1.03 mmboe) and the Tunisian fields (1.0

mmboe) based on production performance

• Reduction for Azurite of 0.15 mmboe

• 2P reserves impacted primarily by;

• Downwards revision of Azurite reserves by

2.9 mmboe on a working interest based

• Upwards revision of the producing Tunisian

fields (1 mmboe)

• Resources approximately unchanged

• Contingent resources of 142 mmboe (145)

• Risked prospective resources of 406 mmboe

(409) at a mid-case level

Page 5: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

Financial highlights

Q1

Page 6: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

6

Production and sales

bopd Full-year

2012

Q4

2012

February

2013

West Africa 5,600 4,900 4,700

North Africa 2,300 2,200 2,000

Group Total 7,900 7,100 6,700

• ASENG: Average production level increased of

60,500 boepd in Q4 (3,400 net to PA Resources)

• AZURITE: Production lower than expected due

to intermittently unstable flowing conditions on a

number of wells

• TUNISIA: Stable production

• PRICE: PA Resources realised price slightly

under Brent average for the quarter due to local

discount in Tunisia

Average production per country (bopd)

Average sales price (USD/bbl)

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

Q42011

Q12012

Q22012

Q32012

Q42012

Congo: Azurite EG: Aseng Tunisia: Didon & Onshore

97

109 106 104

120

109 109 106

106

117 113 109

119

108 109 110

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

Q42011

Q12012

Q22012

Q32012

Q42012

PA Resources Brent

Page 7: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

Q4 - after one-offs and set-off issue

7

SEK million Q4

2012

Q4

One-offs

Tax and

FX effects

Set-off

effects

Q4

adjusted

Revenue 466,801 466,801

Cost of sales &

other expenses -201,046 -201,046

Depreciation & WD -256,752 169,226 -87,526

Operating profit 9,003 169,226 178,229

Financial revenue 1,908 1,908

Financial expenses -195,697 22,000 84,762 -88,935

Total financial items -193,789 0 22,000 84,762 -87,027

Profit before income

tax -184,786 169,226 22,000 84,762 91,202

Income tax -154,797 75,000 -79,797

Profit for the period -339,583 169,226 97,000 84,764 11,405

KEY COMMENTS

• Relinquishment of UK licenses

amounted to SEK 18 million.

• After total Azurite impairment in Q3,

all additional investments has been

treated as direct costs, amounting

to SEK 151 million in Q4

• Q4 fx effects in financial net SEK

-22 million mainly related to NOK

• New assessment on deductible

costs in Equatorial Guinea increa-

sed income taxes with approx. SEK

75 million.

• Effect from set-off issue (convertible

bond) amounting to SEK 85 million

Page 8: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

Improved cash flow

8

SEK million

Q4

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2011

FY

2012

FY

2011

Operating cash flow 175 64 -106 838 812

of which income

taxes paid

0 0 -7 -5 -45

CAPEX -186 -16 -135 -255 -1,613

Financing activities 65 -51 36 -568 -408

Net cash flow 54 -2 -204 15 -1,209

KEY COMMENTS

• Improved operating cash flow

• SEK 838 million for the full year 2012

• SEK 175 million in Q4

• Higher capex spending in Q4 mainly

relating to Azurite sidetrack preparations

• Amortisations of SEK 568 million for full

year

• Full year net cash flow of SEK 15 million

Page 9: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

1,613

255 250-380

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2011 2012 2013

Capex 2012 and forecast 2013

Actual Forecasted

Capex development and forecast (SEK million) KEY COMMENTS

• Capex in Q4 amounted to SEK 186 million

• Azurite investments of SEK 151 million fully

expensed in Q4

• 2012 full year capex of SEK 255 million, at

the lower end of the forecast range of SEK

240 – 275 million

• 2013 forecast of SEK 250 – 380 million,

presuming maintained interest (no farm-outs)

9

Page 10: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

Strengthened financial position

Q1

Page 11: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

Strengthened financial position

11

Pro forma Q4 2012 Q3 2012 Q2 2012 Covenants

Book Equity (SEK million) 2, 194 1 590 956 2,608 >2,000

Book Equity to

Capital Employed 46% 37% 22% 43% >40%

Net debt (SEK million) 2 028 2 630 3,410 3,503 N/A

Covenants and Net Debt development

Completed two-step transaction strengthens equity with approx. SEK 1.570 billion

» Offer to convertible bondholders to set-off their convertible bonds against newly

issued shares at SEK 0.15

» Equity increased with SEK 968 million and nominal debt decreased with SEK 890

million (net debt reduced by 819 MSEK)

Set-off issue

1 » Fully underwritten rights issue at SEK 0.10 (~50% directed to old share holders and

~50% to convertible bondholders)

» Increases equity by SEK 604 million after transaction related costs and reduces net

debt by SEK 602 million

» Outcome of transactions to result in significant changes in shareholder structure

Fully underwritten rights issue

2

Page 12: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

Strategy & focus

Q1

Page 13: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

PA Resources way forward

13

2013 - 2018

Development of

prioritised projects

with reduced risk

>> LONG TERM GROWTH

Development of ~ 32 mmboe for

long-term production growth

>> BALANCED INVESTMENTS

Farm-out of assets reducing invest-

ments and risk, financing from

production and debt financing at lower

level

Page 14: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

Business plan – development for future growth

14

Operating cash flow and

strengthened liquidity enables

maintenance, financing and

amortisations

» Cash flow from producing assets to finance operational expenditures at

the Aseng and Didon fields

» Strengthened balance sheet, in combination with new debt financing,

enables planned amortizations of bond loans and credit facilities

Lower interest reduces

the level of investment and risk

» Farm-out processes ongoing to reduce interest in prioritised assets

• Zarat license in Tunisia (Elyssa, Zarat and Didon)

• 12/06 in Denmark (Broder Tuck and Lille John)

» Reduced risk exposure to individual projects and share of investment

» Strengthened balance sheet enhances position for future transactions

Development of

prioritised assets for

long-term production growth

» Cash flow from producing fields combined with new debt financing

enables development of ~32 mmboe to production from 2016-2018

» Advance Broder Tuck in Denmark and Zarat in Tunisia towards into

development. Progress the appraisal of Lille John in Denmark , Elyssa in

Tunisia and Diega in EG towards development

» Maintain debt level near post-transaction level during investment phase

Selective exploration to further

expand the resource base

» Active and selective exploration activities to further expand the

discovered resource base - few scheduled commitment wells in the

coming two years

Page 15: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

Investments and key assumptions

15

KEY ASSUMPTIONS:

Development is not progressed until farm-out

successful

• Continued operational expenditures on

producing fields

• Development of existing reserves and

resources of 155 MMBOE will after farm-out

add 30 MMBOE

• Farm-out of prioritised assets to reach

preferred working interest level and reduce risk

on individual assets

• Zarat licence from 100% to 20%

• Didon field from 100%% to 50%

• 12/06 from 64% to 15%

• Present operatorship in farm-out assets

secures development planning

• Oil price of 110 USD/bbl and USD/SEK of 6.53

Capex forecast 2013-2018 before and

after farm out transactions (SEK million)

1,613

255 170 270

540 590

230

520

680

970

300

0 0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

PA Resources' share of investments Partners' share of investments

Page 16: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

Expected outcome of planned development

16

KEY ASSUMPTIONS:

• Development of existing

reserves adding after farm-out

30 MMBOE for long-term

production growth

• Debt maintained around

current level

• Expected net cash position in

2018

Estimated development of net debt

and average production

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

ba

rrels

pe

r da

y

SE

K b

illio

n

Net debt actual Production Net debt estimate

Page 17: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

Operations & Outlook

Q1

Page 18: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

Capex forecast 2013/2014 – drilling programme

DK: 12/06 Lille John 2013/2014 Appraisal/1-2

Will Scarlet 2013/2014 Exploration/1

EG: Block I Block I 2013 Appraisal/

Exploration/1-2

EG: Block H Aleta 2013 Exploration/1

NL: Q7/10a Q7-FA Q4

2013/2014

Appraisal/

Development/1

Tunisia: Zarat Elyssa 2013/2014 Appraisal/1

Tunisia: Makthar 2014 Exploration/1

Drilling programme/planned wells 2013-2014 Capex forecast 2013 includes:

• Drilling campaign on 12/06 high priority

• Drilling on 12/06, Block H and Q7/10a

dependent on rig availability

• Drilling campaign in Block I in EG

• Maintenance investments on producing

fields

• Elyssa well assumes successful farm-out

of Zarat license

• The drilling programme is revised

continuously based on the capex budget

and prioritised commitments

18

Page 19: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

EG Block I - Plateau continues at foundation asset PA Resources 5.7%

• First oil from Aseng in November 2011, plateau level of

around 60,000 bopd sustained since March 2012

• Total field production since start in November 2011 of

~27 mmbo + 1.5 million barrels to PA Resources

• Average production of 60,500 bopd in Q4,

3,400 net to PA Resources

• 1P reserves upgrade substantially replaces 2012 production

• Profitable barrels

• Investments of SEK 500 million recovered in 2012

• Opex per barrel will reduce after Alen commencement

• 6-9 liftings per quarter generate frequent cash flow

• Alen field development – first oil expected in Q3 2013

19

Licence Group: Operator Noble Energy (38%), Atlas

Petroleum Int. (27.55%), Glencore (23.75%), PA Resources

(5.7%), GEPetrol (5%)

Page 20: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

EG Block I - Exciting near term drilling program PA Resources 5.7%

• Firm 2013 drilling programme with Atwood Hunter rig

• Progressing two exciting fields towards development

• Carla North and South

• 2011 discovery in adjacent Block O (’Carla North’)

currently being appraised in Block O, where operator

has announced additional oil reservoir found

• Operator has announced plans for fast-track

development tied back to Aseng vessel

• Atwood Hunter rig will shortly move to Block I to

spud Carla South exploration well on same trend

as Carla North

• Diega

• Expect appraisal well and 3 to 4 week production

test in Block I later in 2013

• Operator estimates Diega P75-P25 gross resource

range of 65-116 mmboe

20

Licence Group: Operator Noble Energy (38%), Atlas

Petroleum Int. (27.55%), Glencore (23.75%), PA Resources

(5.7%), GEPetrol (5%)

Block I

Carla South

Page 21: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

240 241 250 244 248280 297

329

54 59 61 63 68

7471

72

63 70 6845 50

4849

47

2325 29

5868

7586

96

380396

408 410435

477502

544

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Gas C

on

su

mp

tio

n (

mm

cfd

)

STEG IPP Industries (HP) Other (MP & BP)

~5% CAGR

Historic Gas Demand

Source: STEG 2012

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Natu

ral G

as (

mm

cfd

)

Demand Supply

Demand

outstrips

Supply

from

2012

onwards

Historic & Forecasted Gas Supply

~3% CAGR

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pro

du

cti

on

(m

mcfd

)

Algerian Gas Miskar Hasdrubal El Franig BaguelChergui Adam Fields Oued Zar Maamoura and BarakaJbel Grouz Chouech Es Saida South Tunisia Gas Project Other

Demand - Supply Shortfall

Note: Forecast supply does not include production from Zarat and Elyssa

fields

21

Tunisia Zarat & Elyssa – Gas Market pull on development PA Resources Operator with 100%

Page 22: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

Tunisia Zarat & Elyssa - Beneficial economic environment

Source: Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, Factset

~58% ~60% ~60% ~62% ~64%

~75% ~77%

Americas Tunisia OECD Middle

East

Asia-

Pacific

North

Africa

Sub-

Saharan

Africa

• Full recovery of exploration and development

expenditure

• Partial recovery of financing costs

• One of the most attractive E&P fiscal regimes in

North Africa

11.00

11.90

9.63

2.24

10.83

4.22

~6.00

9.18

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Tunisia Asia TTF NBP Henry

Hub

Libya

(EPSA)

Israel Egypt

US

$ / m

cf

International Gas Prices Regional Gas Prices

• Gas price enshrined in Tunisian Law

• Formula is tied to 85% of Mediterranean high

sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) price

• Assuming USD 90/bbl long term oil price, resultant

Tunisian gas price is c. USD 11/mcf

• Assuming USD 100/bbl long term oil price, resultant

Tunisian gas price is c. USD 12/mcf

…generates strong gas price for the project

…results in Government share of profit comparable to OECD Fiscal Incentives….

22

2.4

Linkage of domestic gas price to oil price...

Page 23: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

• Jelma-Makthar permits surround producing

Douleb, Semmama and Tamesmida (DST) fields

onshore Tunisia

• Both permits cover areas of 7,216 km² and 3,828

km²

• Jelma extended until 2016 and Makthar until 2014

• Makthar permit contains several onshore

exploration prospects

• Regional mapping of reservoirs, seals and source

rock formations over both permits completed

• Awarded open acreage around Douleb (189km2)

as integrated into Makthar permit

• New seismic to be acquired over Makthar’s most

promising prospects and leads in 2013 to mature

prospect for commitment well in 2014

Licence Group: Operator PA Resouces 100%

ETAP has a back-in right of up to 55%

Tunisia Onshore Potential - Makthar and Jelma PA Resources 100%

23

NW Maiza

Boughanem

Friha

Jelma permit

Makthar permit

Douleb & Semmama

Makthar and Jelma permits

Page 24: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

Denmark 12/06 - Progressing discoveries PA Resources Operator with 64%

• High quality Middle Jurassic reservoir proved by wells

• Mid to high case assessment of c. 25-50 mmboe gross

of contingent resources including liquids

• Technical and commercial studies continuing with focus

on eliminating need for further appraisal drilling

• Ongoing discussions with owners of infrastructure for tie

back as one of range of possible development concepts

• Wells established 35 API oil in Miocene sandstone

at c. 900m – exceptionally light oil for shallow depth

• Remaining deeper potential likely – Chalk and Middle

Jurassic

• Efforts to locate available rig for appraisal drilling continue

in tight rig market

• Development options dependent on appraisal results –

successful appraisal could lead to tieback to nearby

infrastructure or standalone development

24

Licence Group: Operator PA Resources (64%),

Nordsøfonden (20%), Spyker Energy (8%), Danoil (8%)

B20008-73

12/06 Broder Tuck-2

Lille John-1

Broder Tuck

Lille John

Page 25: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

Denmark 12/06 - Exploration and appraisal potential

25

PA Resources Operator with 64%

• Prospects at Miocene, Chalk &

Middle Jurassic levels

• Commitments fulfilled, 2 year

extension to 2014

• Follow-on potential in German

licence B20008-73

12/06 Prospectivity 5 km’s

Broder Tuck (Jurassic)

• M. Jurassic gas /

condensate discovery

~25 – 50 mmboe

Broder Tuck (Chalk) • Existing U-1X Chalk

discovery

~ 5-10 mmbo

Lille John (Miocene) • Shallow oil discovery

requires appraisal

• If appraisal is successful:

~10-50 mmbo

Lille John area • Additional potential in Chalk

and Middle Jurassic

• Currently reprocessing 3D

• Moderate risk, potential size

comparable to Lille John

Lille John area • Additional small, low

risk Tertiary

anomalies

• Low risk 2-10 mmbo

Will Scarlet • Tertiary prospect

supported by seismic

anomaly per Lille John

• Low to moderate risk

10-50 mmbo

12/06

= Planned/possible wells 2013/2014

LJ-1

BT-1

Page 26: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

26

Germany B20008-73 - Farm-out

Hanze

Regnar

Vagn

Tove

Broder Tuck

Lille John

PA Resources Operator with 90%

• Danish and Dutch sector prospectivity extends

onto B20008-73

• Danoil farming in for 10% (subject to regulatory

approvals)

• PA Resources’ 2011 Danish discoveries are seen

to upgrade prospectivity of B20008-73

• Currently evaluating existing 3D over block and

adjacent areas

Licence B20008/73

Licence Group: Operator PA Resources (90%),

Danoil (10% subject to regulatory approvals)

Page 27: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

• Application group PA Resources 50% (Operator),

First Oil & Gas Limited 50%, notified that award

will be made.

• 22/19-1 Fiddich Triassic gas condensate discovery

(1984) flowed 15 mmcfg/d and ~1500 bcpd

• Fiddich discovery and low risk Fiddich East

segment – several 10’s mmboe combined

• Key issue – minimum economic reserve size and

availability of options for tieback

UK 22/19a - Undeveloped field in Central North Sea

27

PA Resources Operator with 50%

Application group: PA Resources 50% (Operator),

First Oil & Gas Limited 50%.

Discovered resources on 22/19a

Page 28: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

Summary and outlook

28

>> STRENGTHENED FINANCIAL POSITION

Capacity to finance development capex and planned amortisations,

enhanced position for future transactions

>> EXPLORATION AND APPRAISAL WITH UPSIDE POTENTIAL

Drilling activites on prioritised assets - Block I campaign in 2013

and 12/06 campaign possibly in 2013 or 2014

>> FOCUS ON ADDING LONG TERM PRODUCTION GROWTH

Focus on farm out of prioritised assets and development – 32 MMBOE

PA Resources net participation - expected net cash position in 2018

>> OPERATING CASH FLOW FROM PRODUCING FIELDS

Important cash flow with profitable barrels from the Aseng field

– foundation for growth

Page 29: Pa resources nordic energy summit 2013 21 march 2013

Thank you! Q1

Q1 Report on 24 April 2013