pacific asia super corridor intra-asia fdi
TRANSCRIPT
Intra-AsiaFDI(2004)
ExistingandPlannedHigh-speedRail
Routes
Manila
PacificAsiaSuperCorridor
600citiesworldwidewillaccountfortwo-thirdsofglobaleconomicgrowth2010-2025.(McKinseyGlobalInstitute)
Jakarta,Bangkok,HCMC,Manila1880-2000
Millions
1864 1964 2000
PopulationCity/Province
Korea1990-2005
ShrinkingCountrysideandCityPopulations
Population Change
1950-1990
Projected Change
2010-2030
Population 1995-2000 Population 2000-2005
Korea’sContinuingPolarization
JapanPrefecturePopulation2008-2009
v“Inthe last30years,morecities inthedevelopedworldshrankthangrew.”v“InJapan,hundredsofsmallandmidsizecities areshrinking”
Japan’sAbsolutePopulationDecline
RingofFireEarthquakes,Tsunami,VolcanicEruptions
Asia’sUrbanTransitionandIncreasingDisastersv Exposure tohazardsmultipliesasurbancentersgrow.v Rapidurbanizationexpandsexposure tohazardsv italsoincreasespeople’s vulnerability,especiallyamongthepoor(UNESCAP2012).
Asia2000– 2012² 1.6billionpeopleimpactedbydisasters² 40%ofalldisastersintheworldareinAsia² 88%ofpeopleaffectedliveinAsia
Theincreaseinconcentrationsofpeopleandgrowthofassets inhazardousareasisthesingle largestdriverofdisasterriskandgreatestchallengeformanagingdisasterrisks. (JhaandStanton-Geddes2013:17)
Shanghai Beijing Singapore
Source:GreenAsh(2013),NaturalDisasterRiskLevelsoftheWorld’sLargestCities.
DeathsfromEarthquakes
Earthquakes,Tsunami
MostAsiancitiesarepoorlyequippedtomanage:v environmentaldisastersv climatechangev contaminatedor
unstablelandv healthpandemicsManywillneedmassiveinvestmentsininfrastructure,publicservices,institutionalcapacityandenvironmentalprogrammes.
The11CriticallyUnpreparedCities=182
mn.peopleatrisk
v 1970- 2010peopleexposedtofloodinginAsiagrewfrom30to64mn.v Thepopulationlivingincyclone-proneareasgrewfrom71.8to120.7mn.v Exposuretodisasterriskisgrowingfasterthantheabilitytobuildresilience
Type1:Neighborhood communityFloodevictionlossofsocial support &livelihoods destitution
Compound disastersareaseriesofcomponentdisasters thatcontinuouslyoverwhelmexistingabilities torespond inchangingconfigurations. Theirsourcesareincubated longbefore adisasterandcancontinue longafteradisaster throughcascading effects.
Type 2: Cascading “natural disasters” Earthquake tsunami nuclear disaster long-term devastations
Type 3: Network effects global supply chains
TianjinJuly2015 Christmas ProductShortage2015
7Propositions
WhenDoesaDisasterBegin?WhenDoesaDisasterEnd?
1. IntheAnthropocene,disasters areincreasingly“incubated” byhumaninterventions innaturewellbeforea“natural”disastereventoccurs.
2. Post-disaster resilience hasgreaterpossibilities ifpre-disaster resilience ishigh.
3. Disastersoccurinpolitical space;whosevoiceishearddetermineswhatwillbedoneandwhowillbenefit. Marginalizedpopulations tendtoremainmarginalizedwhendisasters occur.
4. Disasterresilience issignificantly impacted bymegatrends thatintersect inspecificsettings andmoments – contextmatters.
5. Disastershavecompounddisasterseffects,whicharedifficulttoanticipate.
6. DisasterResilience isasocial learningprocess,notthesole application ofexpertknowledge.
7. Mostofdisaster resilience restsonactionsnotdirectlyrelatedtoadisaster event,butisinstead embedded inprogressivecityregiongovernance.
TheDisasterWheelofResilience
ModelsofPost-disasterResilience
DisasterEvent
The“ForgottenPhase”
Singlevs.CompoundDisasterHypothesisSingle-event resilience Path CompoundDisasterresilience Path
Implications: theneedtodopolicyresearchwellbeforeandlongafteradisasterevent.
TheSearchforMulti-ScalarResilience
Personal/Household
MICRO(Neighborhood)
DisasterEvent
Time
MACRO(Mega-Trends/National-Global)
Bangkok(2011)
Nepal
Jakartakampung
1
2
3
MESO(CityRegion,RiparianRegion)
• Urban Transition• Financialization• Depopulation
JakartaProposedSeaWalland17LandfillIslands topreventcitywidefloodingwhile
promotingcorporatizationofthecityandeliminatinglow-incomeneighborhoods
Luxuryresorts,GolfIsland,PluitCity
Mangrovesandcoastalhabitat?
GroundSubsidence 1974-2010
EvictionandResettlement ofPluitReservoirHouseholds
v 20-30%ofJakartapopulationlives inslumswithsignificant floodrisk.Only35percentofJakarta’spopulationhasdirectaccess topotablewater
v 32percentofdwellinghaveapercapitalivingspaceoflessthansevensquaremeters.
v Mostdonothavelegaltitle totheland;threatsofdemolitionandremovalarealsoeverpresent.
CompoundEffects:Poverty,Flooding&Evictions
TheExpandingReachofCities–
Global Sources of WaterProjected Disappearance of Tibetan/Himalayan Glaciers
² Impacts of large dams on rivers, watersheds and aquatic ecosystems are more negative than positive
² Irreversible loss of species and ecosystems.
² Impoverishment and displacement affecting some 40-80 million people.
² Human rights and equitable distribution of benefits.
² (Source: World Commission on Dams)
Mega-damFunders1950-1999
: coastalshift,mega-urbanregions,newandmassive vulnerabilities, cityandregionaldepopulation, intercitytransmissions ofimpacts ofdisasters.
shifttowardshrinkingpopulations incountryside,townsandcities
– potential ofconflictdisasterstomergewithenvironmentaldisasterswithoutgovernancestructures inplace(refugees,cross-border“waterwars”)
extremeweatherevents,risingsea levels,disappearance oftheHimalayan-Tibet glaciers.
ofgovernmentandfinancialization ofglobalcapital: deepcuts insocialservices, precariousgovernmentfinancial conditions and“rainyday”funds.
increasing infrequencyandcompounding costs
newformsofcommunication duringandafterdisasters
v ….
Howdoweintegratemega-trendsintodisasterresilienceconcepts,anticipationandresponses?
Personal/Household
MESO– National SpatialTrendsandDisparities
MICRO– Depopulatedtowns&Villages,
UnevenDevastations
MACRO–Demographicshift
and“lost”decadesoftheeconomy
GRDPPopulationGrowth
Japan’sEconomyVsChinaandUS
ü Thecompetitiveness andattractiveness ofeachcityismeasured bythepresenceofglobally renowned institutions (Fortune500companies) headquartered inthecity,whichareindications ofdiversityandcivilsocietystrength.
ü Forcompetitiveness, thesocialandculturalcharacterofacityhasbeenweightedat5% (EIU2012).
“Citieseverywherearemakersofwealth,magnetsfortheindustrious,motorsofinvention.Thecityisanengineofgrowth” (WorldBank1996).
City Competitiveness Index
v “splintering urbanism”– thecityasprivatearchipelagos
v “privatopia”
v “desocialization ofspace”
v “geographies ofnowhere”,“variationsofathemepark”,and“non-places.” “theurbanspectacle ascommodity,”
v Assemblages ofde-nationalized Spaces
v Secessionary networkedspaces.
v “Wearewitnessinglargescalecorporatebuyingofwholepiecesofcities.Whatwassmalland/orpublicisbecominglargeandprivate.Corporatemega-projectsinevitablykillmuchurbantissueoflittlestreetsandsquares,street-levelshopsandmodestoffices.Theyraisethedensityofthecity,buttheyactuallyde-urbanise it– densityisnotenoughtohaveacity.
v Ifthecurrentlarge-scalebuyingcontinues,wewilllosethistypeofcitymakingthathasgivenourcitiestheircosmopolitanism. onethataltersthehistoricmeaningofthecity.Suchatransformationhasdeepandsignificantimplicationsforequity,democracyandrights.
Saskia Sassen(2015)“Whoownsourcities”TheGuardian, 24November2015.
CorporatizingCityRegionsinAsia
COEXMall
SingaporeIon
•(Pre)ColonialCity
•EPZs
•Highways
•Peri-urbanHousing
•NewTowns
•Simulacra
•Franchise/Malls
•BusinessDistricts
•WorldHubs
•GlobalSpectacles
•SymbolicTowers
c.1985Zaha Hadid, Seoul
Jakarta
NewEraofMega-Projects1985-presentInjustoneyear,2009,mega-projects inJakarta jumpedby30%
v 1995-2001Jabodetabek sawtheconstruction of25newtowndevelopmentprojects ranging from500to6,000hectareseach.
v Commuting fromthesurrounding areas toDKIJakarta increased10foldfrom1985to2002.About1millionpeoplenowdailycommuteintoJakarta’s urbancore.
LuxuryCondos,JakartaCoast
NewTowns1980-2000
“Urbanizationhaswaterproofedthesurface,causingincreaseddirectrunofftothe13riversofJakarta.Inthelastdecade,largeshoppingcentersandupperclassresidenceshaveprogressively beenreplacingtraditionalneighborhoods(kampungs)andreducingvegetatedareas.”
FastestSinkingAreas
GreeningChina’sUrbanization
Issuesv Nosuccesses todatev “greenwashing”(e.g.,golfcourses)v Environmental costsarehuge:loss
ofwildlifesanctuaries, materialsused,commutingtoemploymentcentres
v Absence ofresidentparticipationv Fixed, inflexiblelanduses
Ø Tooremote,tooclass-exclusive andexpensive.Ø Theyarealsotoopronetomarketing gimmicks
andeconomicorpolitical subterfugeØ toolimited toreallyhaveadecisive impactonthe
broaderurbanenvironment.
Meixi LakeEcocity,Hunan
TianjinEcoCity
PhilippinesIskandar,Malaysia
Sino-SingaporeUS$24bnfor350,000residents by2020.one-half thesizeofManhattan
ü Wetlandstoattractbirdsandanimalscreatinganeco-system,
ü Windturbinesandsolarpanelsfor20%ofcity’senergy
ü Organicwasterecyclingforpowergeneration,
ü Powerandwaterconsumptionmanagementwithinthebuildings,
ü Desalinatedwaterfromthesea,ü Smartbuildings.http://www.myco2.com/ecocities/tianjin-eco-city/
Criticism (WorldBank):“Wideroadsdesigned forcarsdwarfthenarrowbike lanesandsidewalks.Whilemanyofthecity’stallslimmer buildings areclustered togethertoincreasewalkability,these giantblocksareaboutfourtimes thesizeofatypicalblockinManhattanandmakepedestrian andbikejourneyscumbersome.”
Songdo,Korea
100km2,5newtowns.US$30bn.2hoursfromPuneIThub.For300,000residents.Expectedtotake20yearstocomplete.
o Everything except the post office and police station – is run by a corporation,o “with sweeping rights over nearly all aspects of the life of the residents.”o No mayor, just a city manager, appointed by the board of Lavasa Corporation Limited.o All services and schools are privately owned and run. Many are global tie-ups.o Receives government subsidies for spurring tourism.o The least expensive apartments now sell for between $17,000 and $36,000 – out of
reach for most middle-class Indians.
“abundantaccess tonature,acosmopolitanlifestyle, goodschools,afunctionalandcleancity,anuninterrupted powersupply,high-speed internet,e-governance,drinkabletapwaterandawalkablecityinwhichtheneed forcarsisminimal”
•Intra-AsiaForeignWorkersandMulti-culturalSocieties
v Part-timer and sub-part-time labour = 1/3Japan'sandKorea’swageworkers(2009).
v Sharesareincreasing,andaveragewagesarefalling.
• Impermanent Employment - Precariatization
China
South Korea
Singapore
•IncreasingInequality
•470millionpeoplelivinginslumsin2010,withnumbersincreasing
PoliticalFreedom&Democracy20
15WorldPressFreedom
Index
Source:ReporterswithoutBorders
DemocracyinRetreat
Ø “Democracyisontheretreat andauthoritarianismisontherise intheGlobalNorthandSouth…”
Ø “Those…defending localcommunities fromlandgrabsandenvironmental degradationhavebeensubjected tovariousformsofpersecution.”
Ø “Thelinkbetweenunethicalbusinesspracticesandclosingcivicspaceisbecomingclearerasglobalinequalityandcaptureofpowerandresources byahandfulofpoliticalandeconomiceliterises.”
UnitedNations(2015)
MiyashitaPark,Tokyo
TokyoAnti-APECProtest2010
HongKong“Umbrella”OccupyMovement
ForeignWorkers,Taipei
EnvironmentalProtestors,Qidong,China
Bersih4.0GoesGlobal
“GrassrootsCosmopolis”– “whereinhabitantscanasserttheirdifferencesandnegotiatetheminaproductiveandaffirmativeway”
SociallyJust,RighttotheCity,Empowerment
“Inhumanhappiness,creativeactivityandasenseofcommunitycountforatleastasmuchandmaybemorethanmaterialstandardofliving.”
Beyondsustainabledevelopmentas“doingnoharm”andtowardtherestorationandregenerationofnature
…ofconsciouslyreturningmorethanistaken.
InclusioninPublicLife
DistributiveJusticeConviviality
FlourishingBiosphere
HumanFlourishing
“fulldevelopmentofintellectual,physical
andspiritualpotentialsinthecontextofwider
communities”
ProgressiveCityRegionsforResiliencethroughHumanFlourishing
v Aristotle’s4th centuryBCE:eudaimonia – “theinnatepotentialofeachindividualtolivealifeofenduringhappiness, penetratingwisdom,optimalwellbeing,andauthenticloveandcompassion” (Ramussen 1999:1).
v InConfucianism itappearsasaformof“learning tobehuman”whichismadepossibleas a“communal act”,withtheself“neveranisolatedindividualbutacenterofrelationships.” (neo-Confucianist scholarTu WeiMing)
v JohnFriedmann (2002),humanflourishing isthecentralideaofanalternative development tocounter thehegemonyoftheprevailingneoliberalworldsystemdedicated tothepersonal (material) enrichmentofafew.
v Human flourishing isauniversal claim thatdepends onreciprocalandredistributive cooperation. Itrestsonenhancing individualcapacitiesandthedifferences thatresultfromthem. Theideaarises frommanycultural,religiousandphilosophicalorigins.
APublicCity– APolisofCivicLife
therighttodirectlyparticipate inchangingthecity.
ü Livingwageü Socialhousingü Collective
consumptionü ….
5FacesofOppressionv exploitationv marginalizationv powerlessnessv culturalImperialismv violence (I.M.Young1990)
v Participatorygovernance, freedomofspeech,assembly
v Theideaofthepublicinterestandcommongoodv Expands thecommonsv Publicandcivicspaces forpubliclifeandcivicism
Empowermentv Defensible lifespacev Surplustimev Socialorganizationv Socialnetworksv Otherdimensions (Friedm
ann19
92)
TheOppressedtobeco-creatorsofknowledgethroughcooperation,unity,organizationandculturalsynthesis(PauloFreire1970)
PedagogyoftheOppressed
�Inhumanhappiness,creativeactivityandasenseofcommunitycountforatleastasmuchandmaybemorethanmaterialstandardofliving.�
Convivial SpacesOpen, public spacesHuman scaleMixed useLocal cultural practicesPlace-making/vernacularInclusive Allows for spontaneity
v Failureof“SustainableDevelopment” (1987UNBrundtland Report) instrumental usesofnatureasenvironment-economy trade-off.
v “Therapiddwindlingofbiodiversityduringthelastcentury represents notonlyanirreversibleimpoverishment ofourhumanexperience andthelossofessential contributions tohumanwell-beingnowandorgenerations tocome.”
v Ahuman-centered cityisalsoanature-centeredcitydrawingfromhumanvaluestonurture theEarth’svitality.
Bangkok’sBaanMankongCollectiveHousingProgram
InitiatedbytheCommunityOrganizationsDevelopmentInstitute(apublicorganizationundertheMinistryofSocialDevelopmentandHumanSecurity).January2003
vTotal2011: 277cities,73provinces
v Upgradingprojects in1,010communitiescompletedorunderway in226townsandcities,in69ofthecountry’s76provinces,involving54,000households
Asthe2011floodcametoBangkok,thecommunityorganized topreparesandbags,openadisastercenterwithakitchentoprovide food,andbasicmedicalequipment.
ResearchonProgressiveCitiesinAsiav Whatisaprogressive city?v Inwhatwaysisaspecific city
progressive?v Whatarethedrivers thatgiveriseto
itsprogressivity?v howwasprogressive governance
achieved ineachcase?v inwhatwaysaretheybeingeffective
(ornot)?v whataretheirprospects forthe
future?
,2002-2011
$31billion“Dreamhub” 152storybuilding.
“Hangang Renaissance” plancoveringatwentyyearperiodandcomposed oftwenty-twomega-projects.SCGtoinvest672.6billionupto2010.uTheentireHanRiverareatobean“iconic landmark,whichwillallowthecitytohavecompetitiveness” intheworld(quoted inKim2008b).u“SecondMiracleontheHan”
FortifiedCityHall
Inclusion– “Making Seoul a city for the citizens and by the citizens.”v Citizenismayor!:citizenmayor,openingmayoroffice,on-sitemayorofficev Citizens‘committeesonreformagenda:fairtrade,energysaving,cityplanning,humanrights,housing
redevelopment, traditionalmarkets,urbandesign,etc.v Policy-listeningfromcitizensv Civilianofficersrecruited fromcitizens v Institutedparticipatoryplanningandbudgeting
DistributiveJustice:“Welfareisnotcharity,buttheendowedrightofcitizens”v Sharingservices forasharingcityv Initiatedsocialeconomyv Social fundforsocialhousingandsocialbusinessventurev Welfare-basedcommunityregenerationv Freeschoolmeal,housingallowance, jobcreationfortheelderly, cuttingCUS’tuitionbyhalf
Conviviality– “IwanttomakeSeoulacityfulloffun.”v CMapo powerplanttoacultureplant,Seoul’shighlinev Designated1000futureheritagesv Humanscaleurbandesignwithneighborhoods,supportforculturalartisanbusiness
Environment– “MakeSeoulaCityofSunlight”v Sustainabledevelopmentascoreprinciplev RenovationofCheonggyecheon forenvironmental sustainabilityv Eco-MileageSystemv OneLessNuclearPlant(alternativeenergy,recycling,energyusereduction)v MayorParkelectedChairmanoftheWorldMayorsCouncilonClimateChange(WMCCC)
Innovations forProgressiveCities
² Participatorybudgeting² Socialeconomy&communityenterprises² Sharingcity² Communitycurrency² Collectivetenure² (Re-)makingthecommons² Transformingabandonedspacesintocommunitycenters² (Re-)establishingopenmarkets,publicspaces² Participatoryartandculturalfestivals² Directcitizenparticipationingovernmentdecisionmaking² Humanscalearchitecture² Progressivecitieslinkingwithprogressivecitiesand(inter-)
nationalNGOstoscaleupenvironmentalprograms.
(1) Directlyaddressingdisaster-relatedproblems(includingcompound effects)ü Rebuildingü Counselingü Socialnetworksü Livelihoods
(2) Changinggovernmentandlawstogaintherighttoparticipateingovernanceandtodwellinthecityü Democraticreformsü Anti-eviction lawsü Participation ondisastermitigation andrecoveryprocesses
(3) Linkwithothercivilsocietyorganizationtocreateavoiceinthepublicsphere.
(Author)
(1) Actionsforresilienceneedtobeengagedintransformativeprocessestowardprogressivecityregions– notareturntothestatusquoante.
(2) Themajorchallengeresilienturbanismistoreclaimcityregionsaspublicspheresofdecisionmakinginwhichindividualsflourishthroughassociationalandpubliclife.
(3) Inanageofplanetary urbanizationinwhichruralandurbanactivitiestakeplaceinglobal(izing)matricesofcityregions,apatial rural-urbandichotomiesarenotusefulanalyticallyorforpolicies.ü Rural-urbanrelationsareinterdependencies,notoppositionsü Ruralregionsareinvariablytownorcitycenteredü Post-agrarianruralregionscannolongerbedefinedasagricultureplus
village.
(4) Thefutureoftheworlddependsongoodgovernanceofcityregionsratherthannation-statelevelsofpolicymaking.
(5) Scalingupprocessesofgovernancefromthegrassrootsholdsthegreatestpromiseforgainingplanetaryresilience.