Regional Modeling of Nitrogen, Sulfur, and Mercury Atmospheric

Deposition in the Pacific Northwest

Matt Porter, Brian Lamb,Joe Vaughan, Jeremy Avise, and

Jack ChenWashington State UniversityLaboratory for Atmospheric

Research

Regional Interests and Motivation • Regional Deposition Issues

Low pH, elevated N deposition measured in the Columbia River Gorge National Scenic AreaConcern for N, S critical loads in high alpine lakes in the Cascade Mountains (e.g., 1.5 kg-N/ha/yr, 20 kg-S/ha/yr)Elevated Hg levels in southern Idaho reservoirs possibly related to high Hg emissions from Nevada gold mines

• Regional Modeling Approaches

CMAQ Climate Change Modeling Runs (N and S)CMAQ Daily Forecast Runs (HG)

PCM Global Climate Model

Pre-process

MM5 @ 36km

MOZART2 Global

Chemistry Model

Pre-processSMOKE @ 36km

CMAQ @ 36km

Meteorology BC-Chemistry Emissions

Biogenic

Anthropogenic

Fire

MCIP

Climate change modeling system used for N and S deposition results

1990-1999 simulation

* meteorology reflects climate realization; cannot compare with observations/predictions one to one

EDGAR/GAIA Global Emissions

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Months of Dry (tan) and Wet (blue) Deposition

Dep

ositi

on (k

g/ha

per

mon

th)

Monthly nitrogen deposition totals(5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 95% quantiles)

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Months of Wet+Dry Deposition

Dep

ositi

on (k

g/ha

per

mon

th)

Monthly nitrogen deposition totals(5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 95% quantiles)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

DRY WET WET+DRY

Nitrogen Deposition Pathway

Dep

ositi

on (k

g/ha

per

yea

r)

Annual nitrogen deposition totals(5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 95% quantiles)

Current Decade Annual Nitrogen Deposition (TOP) and Future – Current (BOTTOM) (kg/ha)

Dry Wet Dry+Wet

Future-Current Future-Current Future-Current5.04.03.02.01.00.50.0

-0.10

5.04.03.02.01.00.50.0

-0.10

5.04.03.02.01.00.50.0

-0.10

0.0

6.0

4.5

3.0

1.5

0.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

DRY WET WET+DRY

Sulfur Deposition Pathway

Dep

ositi

on (k

g/ha

per

mon

th)

Annual Sulfur Deposition Totals(5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 95% quantiles)

NADP and CASTNET Deposition Monitoring Sites

Current Decade N and S Deposition Against Average Obs

NADP WET DEPOSITION (MONTHLY TOTALS)

CASTNET DRY DEPOSITION (WEEKLY TOTALS)

STATISTIC* NO3 (p) NH4 (p) SO4 (p) HNO3 (g) NH4 (p) NO3 (p) SO2 (g) SO4 (p)N 228 228 228 208 208 208 208 208

MFB (%) -4 31 16 72 -45 -81 -71 0.3MFE (%) 42 57 61 76 76 98 100 94

Daily Forecast Run Mercury Deposition Results

Based upon Airpact-3 re-run for Aug-Nov, 2004

GFS GLOBAL MET

Pre-process

Monthly Average from

MOZART2

Pre-process

Real-Time MM5@

12 km

SMOKE @12 km

CMAQ @12 km

Meteorology BC-Chemistry Emissions

Biogenic

Anthropogenic

FireBluesky

MCIP

AIRPACT modeling system used for HG deposition results

NV

ID

OR

WA

AIRPACT-3 Top-End Mercury Point Source Emissions (CAMR 2001)

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

Em

issi

ons

(lbm

/yr)

P4ProductionLLCPotlachCorpIDDivision-PulpandPaperboardPotlatchCorporationWoodProductsDivisionJERRITTCANYON(MAIN)TWINCREEKS/NEWMONTMININGCORP.BARRICKGOLDSTRIKEMINEOregonSteelMills-Inc.CascadeSteelRollingMills-Inc.AshGroveCementCompanyCovantaMarion-Inc.Boardman PowerPG&EGasTransmission-NorthwestCorp.PortlandGeneralElectricCompanyWeyerhaeuserCompanyGEORGIAPACIFICWESTINCCentralia PowerLONGVIEWFIBRECO.

August 2004 Daily HG-Deposition (mg/ha/day)

0.0

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

2.0

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1.0

0.5

0.0

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

Model Statistics Comparing NADP/MDN Weekly HG Deposition Observations w/Modeled Deposition

STAT NADP-MDN WET DEPOSITION

numPoints 81CutOff 0

MB -0.73 (mg/ha/week)ME 1.1 (mg/ha/week)NB 0.27 (mg/ha/week)NE 1.08 (mg/ha/week)

NMB -0.50NME 0.77FB -0.43FE 0.94

RMSE 1.8 (mg/ha/week)CTMMAX 2.6 (mg/ha/week)CTMAVG 0.63 (mg/ha/week)OBSMAX 7.8 (mg/ha/week)OBSAVG 1.4 (mg/ha/week)

Maximum Total_HG Dry Deposition May 25, 2006, 1100 PST

South

west flo

w

AIRPACT-3 MAX (OVER 5X5 MATRIX) MERCURY DRY DEPOSITION MAY 25, 2006 AT SWAN RANCH

0102030405060

0 5 10 15 20 25

PST (hrs)

Mer

cury

(ug/

ha)

MERCURY

AMBIENT MERCURY MEASUREMENTS AT SALMON CREEK FALLS RESERVOIR, IDAHO, AND MAXIMA FROM AIRPACT, 25MAY06

0

10

20

30

40

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0 5 10 15 20 25PST (hrs)

HG

IIGA

S (p

g/m

^3)

HGIIGAS-obHGIIGAS

Deposition in PNW• Only a first look with the modeling systems• Opportunities for more comparison with lichen

studies and other ecological measurements– Requires higher resolution and long term simulations

• No direct dry deposition measurements available

Summary/Conclusions• Nitrogen deposition

– Current Decade• Annual Totals ~1-6 kg/ha, Max ~ 8 kg/ha• Dry deposition during summer months, wet deposition during late fall thru late spring.

– Future Decade• Largest increases Inland PNW, ~200%

• Sulfur deposition– Current Decade

• Annual totals ~1-8 kg/ha, Max ~12 kg/ha• Wet deposition during late fall thru spring months, emissions driven

– Future Decade• Mixed results: large decrease at Centralia, WA, ~10% regional increases

• Comparison with observations– Pretty good overall, mostly within factor of 2 for most N and S species– Over-predicting HNO3, SO2, and SO4 dry deposition– Doing better with wet deposition compared to dry deposition?

• Mercury deposition– Average daily deposition ~1 mg/ha/day, Max ~24 mg/ha/day (gold mines), ~2-3 mg/ha/day

(Oregon)– Over-predicting background wet deposition– Under-predicting Nevada gold mine wet deposition

?Questions

?

August Nitrogen Deposition, 10-year Average

Dry Wet Dry+Wet

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0.4

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0.1

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0.4

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0.7

0.5

0.3

0.2

March Nitrogen Deposition, 10-year Average (kg/ha)

Dry Wet Dry+Wet

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0.4

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0.1

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0.4

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0.7

0.5

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0.2

Annual Nitrogen Deposition, 10-year Average (kg/ha)

Dry Wet Dry+Wet

0.0

6.0

4.5

3.0

1.5

0.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

August Sulfur Deposition, 10-year Average (kg/ha)

Dry Wet Dry+Wet

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0.5

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.0

1.0

0.5

0.3

0.2

March Sulfur Deposition, 10-year Average (kg/ha)

Dry Wet Dry+Wet

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0.8

0.5

0.2

Annual Sulfur Deposition, 10-year Average (kg/ha)

Dry Wet Dry+Wet

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5.0

3.8

2.5

1.3

0.0

3.0

2.3

1.5

0.8

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8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

Dry Wet Dry+Wet

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0.1

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0.1

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0.5

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Current August Nitrogen Deposition (TOP) and Future – Current (BOTTOM) (kg/ha)

Future-Current Future-Current Future-Current

-0.15

0.08

0.05

-0.050.00

0.500.30

0.15

-0.15

0.08

0.05

-0.050.00

0.500.30

0.15

-0.15

0.08

0.05

-0.050.00

0.500.30

0.15

Dry Wet Dry+Wet

Current March Nitrogen Deposition (TOP) and Future – Current (BOTTOM) (kg/ha)

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0.1

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Future-Current Future-Current Future-Current

-0.15

0.08

0.05

-0.050.00

0.500.30

0.15

-0.15

0.08

0.05

-0.050.00

0.500.30

0.15

-0.15

0.08

0.05

-0.050.00

0.500.30

0.15

Monthly Sulfur Deposition Totals(5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 95% quantiles)

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Months of Wet+Dry Deposition

Dep

ositi

on (k

g/ha

per

mon

th)

Current August Sulfur Deposition (TOP) and Future – Current (BOTTOM) (kg/ha)

Future-Current Future-Current Future-Current

-0.20

0.20

0.00

-0.10

0.10

0.040.015

-0.015-0.04

-0.20

0.20

0.00

-0.10

0.10

0.040.015

-0.015-0.04

-0.20

0.20

0.00

-0.10

0.10

0.040.015

-0.015-0.04

Dry Wet Dry+Wet

0.0

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.0

1.0

0.5

0.3

0.2

Current March Sulfur Deposition (TOP) and Future – Current (BOTTOM) (kg/ha)

Future-Current Future-Current Future-Current

-0.20

0.20

0.00

-0.10

0.10

0.040.015

-0.015-0.04

-0.20

0.20

0.00

-0.10

0.10

0.040.015

-0.015-0.04

-0.20

0.20

0.00

-0.10

0.10

0.040.015

-0.015-0.04

Dry Wet Dry+Wet

0.0

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.0

1.0

0.8

0.5

0.2

HG Wet Deposition Model Performance Against NADP/MDN

Current Decade Annual Sulfur Deposition (TOP) and Future – Current (BOTTOM) (kg/ha)

Dry Wet Dry+Wet

Future-Current Future-Current Future-Current0.7500.6250.5000.3750.2500.1250.000

-0.125-0.250-0.375-0.500

0.7500.6250.5000.3750.2500.1250.000

-0.125-0.250-0.375-0.500

0.7500.6250.5000.3750.2500.1250.000

-0.125-0.250-0.375-0.500

0.0

5.0

3.8

2.5

1.3

0.0

3.0

2.3

1.5

0.8

0.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

Monthly Sulfur Deposition Totals(5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 95% quantiles)

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Months of Dry (tan) and Wet (blue) Deposition

Dep

ositi

on (k

g/ha

per

mon

th)