Pacific Panel

Major activities over the past year

• Panel meeting in Guayaquil, Ecuador, October 2010• International Workshop on ENSO, Decadal Variability and

Climate Change in South America, Guayaquil, Ecuador, October 2010

• SPCZ workshop, Aug 2010, Samoa Islands.• International workshop on North Pacific West Boundary

Current dynamics, May 2010, Qingdao• Workshop “New strategies for evaluating ENSO processes

in climate models”, Paris, France, November 2010• EGU ENSO sessions• Coordination of NPOCE, GAIA, ITF, OKMC, SPICE and

PCCSP, plus “MIXET”

Pacific panel

Major future plans/activities

• Indonesian Throughflow Task Team (jointly with IOP)

• Strengthen links and develop activities with PICES and other “green” programmes

• Development of several review papers (the South Pacific Convergence Zone, Intra-seasonal Oscillation, and WBCs’ response to global warming.

• Support for South America East Boundary Current research

• Continue coordination of major programs

Workshops/meetings planned

• ITF Task Team meeting, early 2012, Indonesia• 7th Pacific Panel meeting, 29 April – 01 May 2012

– Noumea, New Caledonia.• NPOCE open science meeting, early 2012.

Pacific Panel

Recent scientific highlights• J Climate paper “Wind effect on past and future sea level

trends in the Southern Indo-Pacific”• SPCZ and climate change• J Climate paper “

Impact of Decadal Pacific Oscillation on regional drought and flood” led to a Wall Street Journal opinion piece

• Climate dynamic paper “Impact of mean state climate change on ENSO flavours”

• Paper on ENSO instablitity analysis published. • Continuing work on “El Niño and Climate Change” after

Nature Geoscience paper.• NPOCE conducted its major (52-day long) investigation sur

vey to the Northwestern Pacific.

Detection: Ensemble Mean Std. Dev. 30-year NINO3

Natural variability5-95%tiles obs

obs

5-95%tiles of ensemble mean

Collins et al. 2011

Risk of Large El Nino Event

Position and flux associated with ENSO

Vincent et al. 2010

Tropical Cyclone Genesis

As in Vincent et al 2010 but extending to 2008

EOF1

EO

F2

EOF 1, 48%

EOF 2, 16%

Applied to 24 CMIP3 models since 1950 PIC runs, only 11 models are able to produce

Aggregated over 11 models

Control experiments Climate Change experiments

SST and Wind Projection in CMIP3

SST response to CO2 is Characterized by enhancedEquatorial warming Convergence of trades towards equator Ekman suction in South-Western Pacific

Timmermann et al. 2011

Regional % deviations relative to global mean sea rise (2001-2100) Regional % deviations relative to global mean sea rise (2001-2100)

IPCC

(200

7)

Rahmstorf (2007)

10% means delay by1 decade per century

Wind-induced deceleration of global mean sea level rise

Wind-induced acceleration of global mean sea level rise

Cai et al. 2010

(20-yr sliding frequency of CP El Nino (red sold line) and EP El Nino(black dashed line). 20-yr sliding frequency is defined by counting each El Nino event during the 20-yr period)

Changes in the number of EP and CP El Nino events

Choi et al. (2010)

CP El Nino

EP El Nino

TAO/TRITONITF MONITORING

OKMC

GAIA

NPOCE

Pacific climate change science

ProgrammePCCSP

Pacific Panel

Issues and challenges (for input to JSC)

NPOCE launched in May, 2010NPOCE launched in May, 2010

Design and progress of NPOCE field experimentDesign and progress of NPOCE field experiment

Deployed moorings and buoy by IOCAS, OUC and KORDI

2 Chinese moorings deployed, 8 Argo floats and 30 ARGOs drifters released in Dec. 2010

2 Chinese moorings to be recovered and

replaced in Jun. 2011

NPOCE timeline (Hu et al., 2010, NPOCE Science/Implementation Plan)

POSEIDON Project Workshop, Oct. 2010,

Jeju, Korea

NPOCE Coordinating Meeting, Mar. 28,

2011, Busan, Korea

2 Japanese moorings to be deployed in

Aug. 2011

1 Korean buoy deployed in May

2010

NPOCE activities (2010-2011)NPOCE activities (2010-2011)

The first NPOCE cruise of ChinaThe first NPOCE cruise of China(November, 2010-January, 2011)(November, 2010-January, 2011)

Mooring(2)Argo(8)/Argos(30)

75kHz ADCPs + EvoLogics Acoustic Modem, 400 m

DVS700 m

1200 m5450 m

IXSEA 1500 mORE 5500 m

End

Ongoing experiments, Coral Sea Gliders(2005/06 and 2007/10)Gourdeau et al., 2008Kessler, Davis, GourdeauGBROOS: 2010-2011

XBT and Argo floats(2008-2011)Maes et al., submitted

Cruises Cruises SECALIS/SECARGOSECALIS/SECARGO ((2003-2010); 2003-2010); Gasparin et al. 2011Gasparin et al. 2011; ; Ganachaud et al., 2008Ganachaud et al., 2008

Cruise FLUSEC(2007)Maes et al., 2011

regional 1/12° Coral Sea ROMS Couvelard et al. (2008)regional 1/12° Solomon Sea ORCA Melet et al. (2010a, c)

Observations

Models:

2012

IMO

S

GBRO

OS

IMO

S

GBRO

OS

Wu et al. 2011