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Pakistan Polio Program Update Independent Monitoring Board, May 2017

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Page 1: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Pakistan Polio Program Update Independent Monitoring Board, May 2017

Page 2: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

* Data as of April 21, 2017

= 1 Polio Case

= 1 VDPV Case

= 1 Compatible

Case

Polio Cases

Apr 21 to Oct 20, 2015

Polio Cases = 16

Compatible Cases = 03

Polio Cases

Oct 21, 2015 Apr 20, 2016

Polio Cases = 24

cVDPV Cases = 0

Compatible Cases= 01

Polio Cases

Apr 21 to Oct 20, 2016

Polio Cases = 09

Compatible Cases = 05

Polio Cases

Oct 21, 2016 Apr 20, 2017

Polio Cases = 04

cVDPV Cases = 01

Temporal - Spatial Distribution of Polio Cases, 2015–2017*

Page 3: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

0

10

20

30

40

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Feb

Mar

2014 2015 2016 2017

Tie

r-4

0

20

40

Tie

r-1

0

20

40

Tie

r-2

0

20

40

Tie

r-3

11 districts, 4M target

33 districts, 6.4M target

24 districts, 8.7M target

87 districts, 17.8 M target

* Data as of Mar 20, 2017

Confirmed Wild Poliovirus in Pakistan 2014–2016 Decreasing transmission in Core Reservoirs, outbreaks in tier-4 districts

Focus on the highest risk tier 1/2 districts paying dividends ,only one WPV case reported in the core reservoirs in the past 12 months. No new outbreaks observed in tier 2 districts; however, program continues high surveillance vigilance. Sporadic outbreaks in otherwise low-risk tier-4 districts .

Page 4: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Environmental Surveillance Results, Pakistan (last 52 weeks) Persistent and recurrent positives in Quetta and Peshawar; reintroduction in Karachi

Lahore

Multan

Rawalpindi

Karachi

Peshawar

Quetta Block

Page 5: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Median genetic diversity, Jan 12–Jan17

Estimates of genetic diversity using different approaches, indicate a shrinkage across the 2015-2016 low season and reaching an all-time low.

2015 2016

Molecular Epidemiology of WPV in the AFPAK EPI Block

Median genetic diversity remains at low levels

One Epidemiologic Block –AFG – PAK : Polio isolates by Genetic Clusters, 2016-2017

Page 6: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Program Operations: Access and Security Access and security are not barriers to progress but

robust security support remains critical

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2012-16 Reported Fatal Security Incidents

RecordedFatalities

Undetermined

Page 7: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

532 602 597 637

491 610 474

74 73 77 69

79

64 58

24 22 23 24 62

29 20

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Aug (SNID) Sep (NID) Oct (SNID) Nov (SNID) Dec (NID) Jan (NID) Feb (SNID)

2016 2017

Passed at 90% Passed at 80% Rejected<80%

Programme Operations: SIA Performance LQAS focusing on Tier 1 and Tier 2 as well as Low performing Union

Councils allows the programme to identify and close gaps

Page 8: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

12

17 17

13

25

8 7 7

4 4 4 3 3 3.7 4

5 4.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan(NID1)

Feb(NID2)

Mar(NID3)

Oct(NID4)

Dec(NID5)

Jan(NID1)

Feb(NID2)

Mar(NID3)

Sep(NID4)

Nov(NID5)

Dec(NID6)

Jan(NID1)

Mar(NID2)

May(NID3)

Sep(NID 4)

Dec(NID 5)

Jan(NID1)

2014 2015 2016 2017

% c

hild

ren

mis

sed

am

on

g re

cord

ed

Program Operations: SIAs performance Tracking missed children: % missed among recorded missed children

Page 9: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

≥3% of Target population 1 to <2% of Target population 2 to <3% of Target population 0 to <1% of Target population None

Khyber & Peshawar

Karachi Quetta Block

South KP, NWA, SWA & FR Bannu

Karachi

Category # of UCs

>3% 2

2 to <3% 3

1 to <2% 19

0 to <1% 74

None 4

Quetta Block

Category # of UCs

>3% 1

2 to <3% 1

1 to <2% 13

0 to <1% 75

None 20

KP

Category # of UCs

>3% 0

2 to <3% 0

1 to <2% 0

0 to <1% 90

None 58

FATA

Category # of UCs

>3% 2

2 to <3% 0

1 to <2% 7

0 to <1% 55

None 70

Programme Operations: Vaccinating Persistently Missed Children On track - intense focus in tier 1 continues: special attention given to missed

children missed in the prior round

Page 10: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed Children Areas Covered by CBV/Data Support Centre

Khyber &

Peshawar

South KP,

NWA,

SWA & Fr

Bannu

Karachi

Quetta

Block

Programme Operations: Vaccinating Persistently Missed Children Focus is on the Area Supervisor level through successive campaigns

Page 11: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Program Operations: HRMP Highly mobile populations covered in all provinces

Monthly PTP vaccination

Vaccinated % zero-dose

Apr-16 1,506,534 0.6%

May-16 1,558,505 1.0%

Jun-16 1,300,980 1.0%

Jul-16 1,795,267 0.6%

Aug-16 1,833,973 1.0%

Sep-16 1,330,046 0.9%

Oct-16 1,108,332 0.5%

Nov-16 1,492,099 0.5%

Dec-16 1,274,765 0.8%

Jan-17 1,253,155 0.5%

Feb-17 1,392,999 0.6%

Mar-17 1,488,670 0.6 %

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

AJK BALOCHISTAN FATA ISLAMABAD KP PUNJAB SINDH

JAN, 2016 FEB, 2016 MAR, 2016 APR, 2016 MAY, 2016 JUN, 2016 JUL, 2016 AUG, 2016

SEP, 2016 OCT, 2016 NOV, 2016 DEC, 2016 JAN, 2017 FEB, 2017 MAR, 2017

PTPs

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000

Transit vaccination, SIAs

Jan-NID Mar-NID May-NID Sep- NID Dec-NID Jan-NID

Page 12: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

(Example) Programme Operations: Tracking and Vaccinating Guests and Nomads Tier 1

Khyber Peshawar - Guest/Nomads Trend

NID Dec 2016

One green dot= 30 Guests/Nomads % of Guest with Target Population 0% 0-2% 2 -5% > 5%

SNID Nov 2016 NID Jan 2017

SNID Feb 2017

Page 13: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Program Operations Enabling Vaccinator Success on the doorstep

Mass media Localized approach through targeted channel selection and messaging with primary focus on Tier 1 and Tier 2 districts reaching out to caregivers of the persistently and still missed U5 children

NIDs

Mainstream TV, radio, cable

channels, print and outdoor media,

ensuring coverage across

Pakistan

SNIDs

Bigger share of regional media

with focus on core reservoir areas

and select areas of Tier 2 districts

Special SIAs/Case Response

Local radio, cable, print media and

outdoor visibility options for

localized coverage

Page 14: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Program Operations Community engagement focused on caregivers of missed children

Page 15: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Program Operations An all society approach to supporting vaccinators and reinforcing vaccination

Page 16: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Program Operations Routine Immunization in core reservoirs

Assessment in Tier 1 districts - IPV1 and Penta 3 coverage

NEAP Target=80%

Using the micro-census registers as a sampling frame, RI surveys conducted in CBV UCs of Tier 1 districts

So far, survey completed for Quetta, Killa Abdullah, Peshawar and Khyber

More efforts and investments still needed to revitalize EPI program to meet NEAP targets

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

KA

BD

ULA

H

KH

YBER

PES

HA

WA

R-1

,2

PES

HA

WA

R-3

,4

QU

ETTA

KA

BD

ULA

H

KH

YBER

PES

HA

WA

R-1

,2

PES

HA

WA

R-3

,4

QU

ETTA

IPV1 Penta 3

Card only Recall only Sum of Not vaccinated by recall and card

Note CBV = community-based vaccination

Page 17: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Program Operations Population immunity, Seroprevalence against type 1 >90% in all areas

2016/17 underimmunized (<4 OPV doses [RI+SIA]) fraction by district (6-59)

Results of sero-survey among children 6-11 months, Nov 2016-Mar 2017

- Seroprevalence is high for Type 1 and 3. Exceptions are Quetta and Pishin (driven by pockets of

seronegative children. All areas though have > 90% immunity for Type 1.

- Immunity against Type 2 low in comparison (many children in the study born after tOPV to bOPV swtich

and RI is sub-optimal)

Page 18: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Program Operations AFPAK Common Reservoirs

• Significantly improved coordination

• Weekly, monthly and quarterly coordination meeting and teleconferences (last meeting on 6th April, next on 1st May)

• bordering areas’ teams further enhancing the close working relationship

• Four key areas identified for further deepening the coordination in next 6 months

• Common/shared endemic reservoirs

• Border populations/communities outside endemic zones

• Nomadic movement & seasonal migration

• Repatriation of refugees

• Planned single epi-block risk assessment in preparations for NEAP 2017/18

Coordination meeting; Kabul, 6th April

WPV Cases, Last 6 months (Oct 22, 2016 to Apr 2521, 2017*)

Page 19: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Risk Assessment and Decision Support (RADS) M&E, Surveillance and RRU

M&E – Extensive monitoring footprint with ever more rigorous

measurement (may account for apparent lower performance due to greater accuracy and rigor)

– Use of Composite Performance Index has reduced over reliance on LQAS

– Increased deployment of experienced campaign monitors is providing important ground verification

– Critical third party monitoring for the pre and intra campaign phases

• Rapid response Unit – Capacity for rapid investigation and response now present at

all EOCs

Page 20: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

RADS: NEAP Composite index Fraction of ‘potentially low performing Union Councils’ by campaign

6

30

45

1

12 15

6

31

20

38

28

14

32

12 8

16

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

AJK Balochistan FATA GilgitBaltistan

Islamabad KP Punjab Sindh

Sep NID Dec NID Jan NID

Flagged after each campaign for an enhanced attention during the subsequent round

Page 21: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

RADS: Surveillance, key indicators Overall strong surveillance closing remaining gaps

No

n P

olio

AFP

Rat

e

Sto

ol A

de

qu

acy

Non Polio AFP rate Up to

Week No. 52 ended on

31st December, 2016

Data as of March, 28, 2017

2015 2016

2015 2016 2017

2017

Page 22: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

RADS: Strengthening Surveillance since last IMB Every aspect of Surveillance sensitivity and quality enhanced

– The in-depth analysis of the cluster data providing an enhanced understanding of the transmission patterns, applying district-level analysis to Tehsils and UC level.

– Multiple reviews and indicators show clear improvement in surveillance

Activities June 15 – June 16 July 16 - March 17

1. Dedicated Surveillance Officers 9 76

2. Number of Environmental Sites 43 53

3. Number of Weekly Zero Reporting Sites 6,483 7,645

4. Number of Active Sites 2,087 2,528

5. Number of persons oriented on AFP Surveillance

(CBV Teams, FLHCPs, Doctors) 10,266 27,709

6.Number of AFP Cases Reported in the province 3,076 5,486

7. Number of AFP Cases reported through Community Based Surveillance

222 836

Page 23: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Pakistan:

Currently 53 active sites

2009: Karachi and Lahore

2010-2011: Quetta, Peshawar, Rawalpindi and Multan

2012: Sukkur, Hyderabad, Faisalabad

2014: Jacobabad, Killa Abdullah, Dera Ismail Khan, Islamabad

2015: Peshawar

2016: D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu, Faisalabad, Bahawalpur, Sargoda,

Mardan, Banu, Kohat, Charsada, Quetta, Pishin, Loralai, Zhob, Khuzdar

RADS: Surveillance Largest polio environmental surveillance footprint in the world,

53 active sites

PUNJAB 17

SINDH 16

BALOCHISTAN 10

KP 9

ISLAMABAD 1

PAKISTAN

46

156

204

239

321

372

438

526

147

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Year

Till 21 April 2017

Page 24: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Balochistan: progress and challenges

Proportion of ES

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

Positive Negative Under process

0

1

2

3

4

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

Nu

mb

er

KABDULAH LORALAI QUETTA

WPV epicurve

• Since Jan 2016: 2 confirmed WPV and 1 cVDPV2 cases: battled on two fronts • Persistent positive environmental samples since July 2016 indicate WPV1

transmission within Quetta Block • Environmental Surveillance has been critical in the timely detection of VDPV2

circulation; facilitating a calibrated type2 response • Mapping and vaccinating HRMP and supportive supervision for poor performing

districts and UCs in pre-campaign and intra-campaign activities will be critical • Personal leadership of Chief Secretary

2015 2016 2017

Page 25: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

01234567

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

Nu

mb

er

Central KP South KP Peshawar North KP

KP: progress and challenges

Proportion of ES WPV epicurve

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

Positive Negative Under process

2015 2016

• Since Jan 2016: 8 confirmed WPV cases; only one case in the last 6 months (Sept-2016 in Kohistan)

• Significant progress in Peshawar (last WPV case in Feb 2016); but persistent positive ES from one site (SMT)

• No WPV case in South KP since June 2016, but high state of alert maintained due to continued transmission in Central Corridor (Bermal, WPV case, Dec 2016)

• The WPV case in Kohistan underpinned vulnerability in tier-4 districts • Reaching and vaccinating migrant/mobile population and returning Afghan

populations a priority

2017

Page 26: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

0

1

2

3

4

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

Nu

mb

er

Khyber Rest of FATA

FATA: progress and challenges

WPV epicurve

048

121620242832

BA

JOU

R

KH

YBER

KU

RR

AM

MO

HM

AN

D

OR

AK

ZAI

WA

ZIR

-N

WA

ZIR

-S

FR B

AN

NU

FR D

IKH

AN

FR K

OH

AT

FR L

AK

KI

FR P

ESH

AW

AR

FR T

AN

K

FATA

Rat

e

2014 2015 2016

Non Polio AFP Rate

• Since Jan 2016: Two WPV cases from South Waziristan; seven WPV cases from adjoining Bermel (Paktika) in Afghanistan

• Suboptimal supportive supervision and monitoring due to security challenges in Khyber, SWA, FR Tank, Mohmand and Bajour

• Tracking and vaccinating population moving across informal routes between SWA and Paktika – critical

• With support of Pakistan Army and levies campaigns being conducted in insecure /partially accessible UCs of FR DI Khan, SWA, NWA Bajour and Khyber

• Still small pockets of inaccessible areas in SWA and Khyber

2015 2016 2017

Page 27: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

0

1

2

Nu

mb

er

Punjab: progress and challenges

Proportion of ES WPV epicurve

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

Positive Negative Under process

• One WPV case in 2017 after 12-month WPV free • Evidence of local transmission of WPV in Multan , Rawalpindi and Lahore –

linked cases in Kohistan and Diamer • Inconsistent quality of WPV campaigns in Lahore, Rawalpindi & Tier-IV districts

(Sargodha, Jhang, Hafizabad) and Southern districts with concentration of HRMP • Lodhran long chain virus investigated in detail • Tracking, mapping, registration of HRMPs & inclusion in micro-plans to vaccinate

against polio & other VPDs in host communities • Sustaining high quality SIAs and strong RI critical to maintain immunity levels

2015 2016 2017

Page 28: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

01234567

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

Nu

mb

er

Karachi North Sindh South Sindh

Sindh: progress and challenges

Proportion of ES WPV epicurve

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

-17

Mar

-17

Positive Negative Under process

2015 WPV 2016 WPV

• Since Jan 2016: One WPV in Karachi (Jan 16), 3 cases in North Sindh (April 16) and 4 in South Sindh (Nov 2016)

• Karachi showing positive epidemiology during the 14 months; 2 imports from Quetta; Program on high alert to maintain high immunity levels

• South Sindh posed special challenges (male teams, otaque, difficult access in coastal areas, weak infrastructure, poor nutritional status of population)

• Recent gains in North Sindh MUST be sustained as the risks are clear and present • Personal leadership demonstrated by CM transforming the program

Page 29: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Task Updates

National Task Force and PM Focus Group meetings

Two meetings of the Prime Minister’s Focus Group

Monthly National Steering Committee meetings with provinces on board

Prime Minister briefed regularly in person by the PM’s Focus Group; PM office available full time for high level intervention

Provincial Task Force meetings

Regular meetings chaired by CM, Governor KP or CS

Divisional Task Force meetings

Regular DTF meetings held by Commissioners

District Polio Eradication Committee meetings

Regular and timely DPECs by DC or PA

Implementation of accountability frame work

Disciplinary measures been taken in all provinces; more attention needed for reward process

Management, Oversight and Accountability PM Focus Group and Task Forces driving performance

Page 30: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Conclusions and Way forward

Solid progress has been made overall especially in core reservoirs

Key areas of focus for attaining and maintaining Zero:

1. Continuing intense focus on core reservoirs to maintain high immunity

2. Improving coverage of High Risk Mobile Populations (HRMP) by effectively using collected local knowledge

3. Furthering performance in relatively sparsely populated, and low risk districts in Tiers 3 and 4

4. Strengthening closer collaboration with Afghanistan especially on Southern Corridor transmission

5. Sustaining high quality Surveillance performance all across

6. Strengthening RI in core reservoirs - improve penta 3/IPV coverage to NEAP target

Page 31: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Thank you

Page 32: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Tracking and vaccinating missed children Explaining terminologies

Children Recorded as Unvaccinated Still Missed Children (remaining unvaccinated)

Province Total Children

Vaccinated

Recorded "not available children"

Recorded "refused

vaccination" Total recorded missed children Still NA Still Ref. Still Missed

% Among Targeted

PUNJAB 18194336 2014438 (11%) 1950 (0%) 2016388 (11%) 27098 184 27282 0.1 SINDH 8261500 949905 (11%) 176684 (2%) 1126589 (14%) 50833 32470 83303 1 KP 5069973 583602 (12%) 32806 (1%) 616408 (12%) 19829 3572 23401 0.4 BALOCHISTAN 2212597 153262 (7%) 20631 (1%) 173893 (8%) 47814 2928 50742 2.1 ISLAMABAD 285301 35572 (12%) 1122 (0%) 36694 (13%) 3452 522 3974 1.3 FATA 907886 109495 (12%) 6289 (1%) 115784 (13%) 5076 1757 6833 0.7 Pakistan 35854531 3875607 (11%) 239490 (1%) 4115097 (11%) 154251 41436 195687 0.52

Example: NID, January 2017

Recorded missed children: children documented by teams as belonging to a household but

not vaccinated. There two reasons for non-vaccination: 1) child is not available at time of visit, or

parent/guardian refuses to vaccinate child. In CBV UCs, child-level data is available, child-

level vaccination status is tracked.

Same day coverage: the proportion of children “recorded as missed” covered after revisit by

the team on the same campaign day. As per NEAP, at least 50% of children recorded missed

should be vaccinated after revisit on same day. Not achieving this target is mostly associated

with poor team management, or poor team workload distribution

“Still missed”: children remaining unvaccinated at end of the campaign

“Persistently Missed Children: re-emphasized following the January National Polio

Management Team meeting. It was recommended that registered children in CBV UCs who

have gone unvaccinated for 2 or more campaigns are flagged as “PMC”

Page 33: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

101

117 97 95

89

116 96

13

9 6 4

8

4 5 4

1 0 0

7 2 1

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

110 108 142 185

135 172 92

20 23 38 25

39 26 18

5 7 14 6 27 10 7

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

98 121 112 99 92 142 77

21 22 13 24 14

16 15 3 6 3 10 13 10 1

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

129 138 154 149

98

130 149

6 3

8 4

7

5 6

0 4

0 2 2 1 2

85%

90%

95%

100%

94 112 85 104 73 48 58

11 16 12 10 9 10 12

9 4 5 3 11 5 7

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Aug (SNID) Sep (NID) Oct (SNID) Nov (SNID) Dec (NID) Jan (NID) Feb (SNID)

2016 2017

Passed at 90% Passed at 80% Rejected<80%

Pu

nja

b

Sin

dh

K

P

FA

TA

B

alo

ch

ista

n

Classification of LQAS Lots by province (proportion)

Page 34: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

6 7

5 4 2 2

3

2 2 3 2

3

0 1

3 2 1 2

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

532 602 597 637 491 610 474

74 73 77 69 79

64 58 24 22 23 24 62 29 20

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Aug (SNID) Sep (NID) Oct (SNID) Nov (SNID) Dec (NID) Jan (NID) Feb (SNID)

2016 2017

Passed at 90% Passed at 80% Rejected<80%

Isla

ma

bad

Pa

kis

tan

Classification of LQAS Lots by province (proportion)

PROVINCE AUG (SNID) SEP (NID) OCT (SNID) NOV (SNID) DEC (NID) JAN (NID) FEB (SNID) Total

BALOCHISTAN 114 132 102 117 93 63 77 698

FATA 135 145 162 155 107 136 157 997

ISLAMABAD 6 6 8 10 8 6 6 50

KP 122 149 128 133 119 168 93 912

PUNJAB 118 127 103 99 104 122 102 775

SINDH 135 138 194 216 201 208 117 1209

PAKISTAN 630 697 697 730 632 703 552 4641

Total Lots taken by activity

Page 35: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Program Operations SIAs performance Post Campaign Monitoring - all three reservoirs showing consistent high

coverage rates

NID PCM Sept 2016 NID PCM Dec 2016 NID PCM Jan 2017

Page 36: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Chagai

Kech

Washuk

India-administered Kashmir

Khuzdar

Awaran

Kalat

Chitral

Zhob

Panjgur

Bahawalpur

Ghizer

Hunza

Sibi

Khairpur

Tharparkar

Las Bela

Kharan

Dadu

Shigar

Rajanpur

Kohlu

Sanghar

Loralai

Swat

Attock

Jamshoro

Badin

Skardu

Gwadar

Bhakkar

Jhang

Diamer

Ghanche

Kachhi

Dera Bugti

Ghotki

Thatta

Kohistan

Killa Saifullah Layyah

Nushki

Astore

Gilgit

Pishin

D.I. Khan

Chakwal

Rahim Yar Khan

Khushab

Okara

Sukkur

Mianwali

Vehari

Kasur

Dera Ghazi Khan

Mastung

Musakhel

Umerkot

Sargodha

Bahawalnagar

MuzaffargarhZiarat

Faisalabad

Multan

Sujawal

Kohat

GujratJhelum

Rawalpindi

Nagar

Neelum

Sialkot

Karak

Harnai

Mansehra

Khanewal

Barkhan

Sahiwal

Upper Dir

Quetta

Kotli

Chiniot

Tank

Jhal Magsi

Sheikhupura

Gwadar

Gujranwala

Sheerani

Lodhran

Nasirabad

Buner

Narowal

Pakpattan

Kharmang

Shikarpur

Kashmore

Swabi

Lakki Marwat

Lahore

Jacobabad

Hafizabad

Mardan

Hangu

Bannu

Nowshera

Killa Abdullah

Haripur

Qambar Shahdadkot

South Waziristan Agency

Mirpur Khas

Jaffarabad

Kurram Agency

Larkana

North Waziristan Agency

Matiari

Toba Tek Singh

Shaheed Benazirabad

Khyber Agency

ShanglaLower Dir

Gadap Town

Mandi Bahauddin

Naushahro Feroze

Abbottabad

Bhimber

Mirpur

Batagram

FR Tank

BaghPeshawar

Mohmand Agency

Nankana Sahib

Hattian

Muzaffarabad

Poonch

Bajaur Agency

Tando Allah Yar

Charsadda

Haveli

Orakzai Agency

Hyderabad

FR Bannu

FR Dera Ismail Khan

Malakand PA

Sudhnoti

Tando Muhammad Khan

Tor Ghar

FR Kohat Islamabad-ICT

Bin Qasim TownKeamari Town

FR Peshawar

Islamabad-CDA

FR Lakki Marwat

Malir Town

Saddar Town

Baldia Town

Legend

IPV KP Phase-3 27 Apr – 4 May

IPV Sindh Phase-3 24 Apr – 2 May

IPV (Quetta Block) Balochistan 17-24 April

IPV FATA Phase-1 13-20 Feb

IPV KP Phase-1 6-13 Feb

fIPV Campaign Hyd Div 24-31 Oct 2016

IPV Sindh Phase-1 13-21 Feb

IPV FATA Phase-2 20-27 March

IPV KP Phase-2 22-29 March

IPV Sindh Phase-2 20-27 March

Other Districts

bOPV-IPV Campaigns (Sep 2016 to April 2017)

Province / Date No. of Districts

included IPV

Target IPV Cov

IPV Cov %

OPV Target

OPV Cov OPV

Cov %

fIPV Hyd Div 24-31 Oct 4 districts 258510 259801 100% 315180 306542 97%

IPV KP Ph-1 6-13 Feb 5 districts 552,708 499,309 90% 637,620 647,205 102%

IPV FATA Ph-1 13-20 Feb 6 agencies 161,317 153,007 95% 183,555 184,360 100%

IPV Sindh Ph-1 13-21 Feb 22 dists/towns 625,310 595,169 95% 753,710 702,368 93%

IPV KP Ph-2 22-29 Mar 4 districts 166,021 159,014 96% 173,019 163,058 94%

IPV FATA Ph-2 20-27 Mar 7 agencies 129,946 122,072 94% 141,492 132,006 93%

IPV Sindh Ph-2 20-27 Mar 8 districts 790,053 794,701 101% 939,029 925,671 99%

IPV Quetta Block 17-24 Apr 3 districts In Progress

IPV Sindh Ph-3 24 Apr - 2 May 1 district To Be Conducted

IPV KP Ph-3 27 Apr – 4 May 3 districts

13

60 34

34

21 39

10

22

10 1

18

3 3

8

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

fIP

V H

yd D

iv

IPV

KP

Ph

1

IPV

FA

TA P

h1

IPV

Sin

dh

Ph

1

IPV

KP

Ph

2

IPV

FA

TA P

h2

IPV

Sin

dh

Ph

2

LQAS Results

Lots Passed Lots Failed

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2014 2015 2016

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

cVDPV2 (cases) cVDPV2 (env) aVDPV2 (cases) aVDPV2 (env) iVDPV2 (cases) VDPV2 (env)

VDPV2

VDPV2 isolates (Cases + ES), 2014 – 2017*

* Afp.rec Data as of 15-03-2017

2015 2016 2014

iVDPV (Cases)

2017

2017

Page 38: Pakistan Polio Program Updatepolioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/PAK_Update...Area Supervisor with more than 20 Persistently Missed ... D.G. Khan, Karachi, Sanghar, Dadu,

Legend

mOPV Balochistan (Mar 20-23)

mOPV Quetta (Jan 2-8)

mOPV Quetta Block (Feb 11-17)

mOPV Rounds Balochistan

Round-3 (Rest of Balochistan) Target = 1,657,768 Coverage = 1,611,048 (97%)

Round-2 (Quetta Block) Target = 731,370 Coverage = 654,813 (90%) Round-1 (Quetta)

Target = 444,720 Coverage = 412,266 (93%)