palmer learning from others dec 2011

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Learning From Others

Presentation to Saugeen Shores

S.T.O.P. Town Hall MeetingBill Palmer - Dec. 2011


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Lets Look at Others

A commonly expressed point of view is,Others have used turbines and renewablesfor years, surely we can learn from theirexperience?

So, lets have a look at what we can learn Lets look at what Ive seen in Denmark,

Ireland, England, Scotland, France, Germany,Italy, Poland, Greece, Spain, New Zealand,

the USA, and Quebec to compare to Ontario Well look too at what conference authors andour research tells us

Well also look at economic and social impacts


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We learn:

Accepted turbines

are small, in smallclusters, distantfrom homes

Repowering withlarger noisier

turbines leads toproblems & concern

largedevelopments near

cottages lead toproblems & concern

offshoreinstallations ~ 10

kM from shore


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Learn papers proposing setbacks of 50-100 m from roadswere written in 1989, when turbines were 30m tall with 21m

rotor - now used in Ontario for 100m towers with 100m rotor


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Again - no homes nearby, small cluster.


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While in Quebec

First installations - 500+ metre setbacks, one side only


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Second installations - larger 1500 m setbacks


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Third Installation ~ 8000 m setback to homes


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Meanwhile in Ontario


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Island of Crete (Greece) inMediterranean Sea

Learn - present system primarily fossil (oil / gas)


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Crete Wind - 160 MW total,can supply 42% of need at night

Learn - turbines not near homes (~ 8 km)


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Crete also developing Solar,90 MW total planned


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Learning From Greek Guide

Greek wind generators are privately owned.

The electric utility buys all the power theyproduce at a special rate, and then resells it tothe consumers.

Im not sure about our Greek economy though. I have a small apartment. They are adding a

240 euro a month (about $4400 a year) specialtax on my electricity bill. No one can afford it !

She did not see the link, can you? 2 days after we left, the Greek President fell,

with riots in streets due to austerity measures.


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Learning from Spain

Closest turbine seen ~ 1.5 km to homes, somecomplaints here in Cadiz


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The Situation in Spain

Spain is second only to Germany forwind turbine penetration in Europe.

But, Germany exports more turbines,e.g., to Canada and USA, so profits there

Spanish unemployment 22%

Spanish youth unemployment (age 17 to24) is close to 50%

Job Creation? - or Job Loss? As energyprices rise


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Before the election, which ousted the government.

As Seen in Spain


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Meanwhile in Ontario

Auditor General report criticizes governmentfor wind and solar contracts with inadequatescrutiny, notes jobs mostly temporary. (Dec 6)

Premier McGuinty opens Windsor windturbine supplier for the third time, claiming his

governments heavily subsidized green energyremains the way of the future. (Dec 8)

clean energy benefit reduces electricity billsby 10%, transferring cost to provincial debt

The Fraser Institute warned that Ontarioslong-standing addiction to corporate welfare(27.7 B$) has reached new heights. (Dec 8)

Moodys credit rating agency warns Ontario

credit rating at risk (Dec. 15) due to debt load


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What Others Experience Tells Us

small studies do show adverse health effects of those

near (< 1500 m) wind turbines compared to more distant(> 3300 m) - headaches, sleep disruption, newprescription medications required

sound levels in hospitals at same level as wind

turbines elevated blood pressure, respiration rate, heartrate

sleep disruption can result in delayed sleep onset,recalled awakening, and repetitive non-recalled

awakenings physiological link shown between response of ear tolow frequency sound, unrelated to audibility

1 in 5 have heightened noise sensitivity

cyclical quality of sound makes it more annoying


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Our Research Confirms

wind turbines have highest output (and produce most

noise) at night, when ground level winds are lowest,resulting in annoyance

Wind turbines operating, even at very low powerincrease sound levels at all octaves up to 1000 Hz by20 dB at sites 500 m from the turbine compared to asite in the same environment 5000 m from the nearestturbine

As ground wind speed increases, sound levelincreases at all locations, near and distant fromturbines by about 10 dB, but sites 500 m from nearestturbine stay 20 dB above the distant site

Sound level at approved site is noticeably abovemodel predicted value 25% of the time - so if predictedto be at limit, sound may be 3 dB above limit 25% ofthe time


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Impact on Electrical System - Averages Can Mislead


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The Devils in the Details

Ontarios consumption ~ 12,000 MW minimumto 16,000 to 24,000 MW maximum

Nuclear ~ 10,500 MW base, headed to 12,000(does not vary easily) (~$45 to $75 per MWh)

Hydro ~ 7,000 MW (~2,000 run of river base,

~5,000 can be varied) (~$40 + per MWh) Gas ~ 7,000 MW, headed to 10,000 MW

(~1,000 MW base) (~$120 + per MWh)

Wind - headed to ~ 8,000 MW - poor during

peak, best during off peak (~$145 per MWh) Solar - headed to ~ 2,000 MW - day only

(~$400 - $800 per MWh)

Coal - was 6600 MW (~$60 per MWh), headed

to 0 mostly due to nuclear restart, and gas.


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Winter


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Spring


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Summer


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Fall


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What Will Be the Result?

To allow for wind and gas during off peak

hours, nuclear base load must be reduced Bruce nuclear units often cycle down at night to

reduce system output now - contracts requirecapable units to be paid even if not producing.

Wind contracts require wind to be taken first ifavailable, or paid.

Ontario pays out of province utilities to takeexcess generation.

BIG cost overrun incurred, as consumer paysthree times. Least expensive sources beingreplaced with more expensive. - More CO2 too.

Predictions for Ontarios future?


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Summary - What Have we Learned?

In the world, accepted wind turbines are small, distant

from homes, and in small groups - In Ontario, windturbines are large, close to and surrounding homes

Wind turbines shown to have adverse effects by smallstudies, but NO comprehensive study has been done

High costs for non-dispatchable power - increases

power cost to consumers Job creation not matched by turbine installation

Wind turbines do not match electrical system needs

1 in 5 have heightened noise awareness - in 100

homes, consider about half (50 homes) will havesomeone with adverse impact

Basis for safety setbacks is misguided - bigger risk ofinjury than living on boundary of nuclear plant -professional concern

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We Have Not Learned Much

Does failure to listen to the experience

of others predict the same result forOntario as Greece and Spain?

Actually it is worse, since we are sitingturbines closer than Europe.

We can predict health, safety, andeconomic adverse impacts.

palmer learning from others dec 2011

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