pamela thornton are we running out of cocoa? chocoa, amsterdam march 06,2015 pamela thornton page 1
TRANSCRIPT
Pamela Thornton
ARE WE RUNNING OUT OF COCOA?CHOCOA, AMSTERDAM MARCH 06,2015
PAMELA THORNTON
Page 1
Pamela Thornton
SLIDE FROM 2010
• Where is the cocoa required to satisfy this future demand going to come from?
• By 2020 we are going to need at least 4.5 mil tons pa to satisfy demand
• Equates to 900 kmt pa more than we produced in 2009/10 or 700 kmt more than projections for 2010/11
Page 2
Pamela Thornton Page 3
Demand Trends – Strong Historical Link to GDP
1980
/81
1981
/82
1982
/83
1983
/84
1984
/85
1985
/86
1986
/87
1987
/88
1988
/89
1989
/90
1990
/91
1991
/92
1992
/93
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Armajaro Grind Model
Grind growth forecast
Source: Armajaro
Pamela Thornton Page 4
1961
/62
1962
/63
1963
/64
1964
/65
1965
/66
1966
/67
1967
/68
1968
/69
1969
/70
1970
/71
1971
/72
1972
/73
1973
/74
1974
/75
1975
/76
1976
/77
1977
/78
1978
/79
1979
/80
1980
/81
1981
/82
1982
/83
1983
/84
1984
/85
1985
/86
1986
/87
1987
/88
1988
/89
1989
/90
1990
/91
1991
/92
1992
/93
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Annual Growth in Grind per annum
Source: Armajaro
Pamela Thornton Page 5
198
198
198
198
198
198
198
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
201
201
201
201
201
201
201
201
201
201
202
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
AfricaLinear (Africa)
000’s
mts
Production Trends by Continent
= Forecast
Pamela Thornton Page 6
Production Trends – Ghana/Côte d'Ivoire
1983
/84
1984
/85
1985
/86
1986
/87
1987
/88
1988
/89
1989
/90
1990
/91
1991
/92
1992
/93
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
2018
/19
2019
/20
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Ghana Côte d'Ivoire Linear (Côte d'Ivoire)
000’s
mts
Market fears CI was in a structural downtrend
Structural downtrend or temporary blip?
Source: Armajaro
Dotted Line = Since last conference
= forecast
Pamela Thornton Page 7
Farmgate Prices in US$
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Ivory Coast Ghana Brazil Nigeria
Pamela Thornton
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 200
100
200
300
400
500
600
700Brazil Ecuador Indonesia Nigeria Peru
00
0’s
to
nn
es
Page 8
Production Trends – 2nd Tier Origins
= forecast
Pamela Thornton Page 9
S&D Potential Picture
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Production Grindings
000s
tonnes
Source: Armajaro Data
Pamela Thornton Pamela Thornton Page 10
Pamela Thornton
Ghana Rural : Urban Migration
Page 11
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201310%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Employment in Agriculture (% of Total Employment)
Source: IMF
Rapid change since 2006
Pamela Thornton Pamela Thornton Page 12
Pamela Thornton
SLIDE FROM 2010
• Cocoa is a unique product
• It requires harvesting by hand
• Requires multi-stage post-harvest handling
• Approx 25000 pods have to be cut open to produce 1 metric ton of beans
• We have been spoiled as consumers benefitting from the efforts of desperately poor people who lack alternatives
• This pool of African farmers is not enough to meet the needs of world demand going forward
Page 13