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Paraguay Slide 2 Politics Triple Alliance and Chaco Wars Strong Dictatorship National Identity Dominance of Colorado Party Fernando Lugo Religious leader Cancer issue Slide 3 Economy Agricultural / Informal Economy Natural Resources Soybean, Cotton, Hydroelectricity (Itaipu Dam) Partners Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, China, United States Banking System Foreign companies partially and entirely own most banks and financial institutions Slide 4 Population Paraguay's total population sums 6,5 million, what corresponds to less than 3% of the American population or 3.5% of the Brazilian population. Paraguay lost almost 90% of the male population in the Triple Alliance War (1864-1870). After decades, men outnumber women again 95% of the Paraguayans live in the east part of the country, the northern and northwestern bordering regions are largely vacant. Other populated cities include Filadelfia, Caacupe, Coronel Oviedo, Ciudad Del Este, Paraguari, Villarica and Encarnacion. Slide 5 Population and Projections Year 2010 Year 2020 Year 2050 The population pyramid demonstrates that Paraguay has a very young population The largest population group is between zero and 4 years old. This trend continues in 2020, as shown in the graph and only changes in 2050, when these children will become part of the economically active population. Until then, Paraguay will struggle to maintain its work force. Slide 6 Nationally Homogeneous The majority of the population is of mixed Spanish and Guarani Indian descent Over 90% of Paraguayans are fluent in Guarani Geographical isolation has contributed to establish national unity. Slide 7 It is estimated that 350 to 500 thousands Brazilians live in Paraguay. Many are irregular, given the obstacles to acquire the necessary documents to regularize its status. The intense migration from Brazil happened in the 1960s and 1970s. Brazilians were attracted by low land prices and by the abolition of law prohibiting the purchase of land by foreigners, what happened under Stroessner's government in 1967. Besides domestic issues, such as the agrarian reform in Brazil and the concentration of land by soy farmers. For Brazil, the immigration to Paraguay was welcomed, because it was an answer to Brazilian interests in occupying the border. Conflict involves Paraguayan rural workers who demand land reform in the areas where Brazilians are. They say the government of Stroessner (1954 to 1989) seized property that belonged to them and divided it among sectors of the government, foreign companies and small Brazilian farmers. Episodes of intimidation and land invasion of Brazilian properties are frequent. For Paraguayans, Brazilians are rich entrepreneurs and imperialists. Responsible for introducing transgenic soybean in Paraguay and devastating the forests and the environment, and for expelling peasants and indigenous people from their land. Brazilians are also seen as a group that instead of integrating itself with the Guarani society, imposed and maintained a distinct cultural structure, posing a threat to the Guarani identity. Potential Threat: Brasiguaios/Brasiguayos Slide 8 #1 Imperative: Protect Its Borders GRAND STRATEGY Establish/Maintain good relations with bordering countries: Brazil, Bolivia, and Argentina STRATEGY Manage Brazilian dependency on the Itaipu Dam Use good gelations with Brazil to dissuade Argentinians colonial ascendancy Control Northern and Northwestern borders TACTIC Secure ownership of Itaipu Dam Bring in third external party to counterbalance the two regional powers Slide 9 #2 Imperative: Secure/Maintain Access to the Atlantic Ocean Why? Paraguay is one of two South American countries that do not have an outlet to the sea, along with Bolivia. Asuncin is distant from populated areas of neighbors and the only access to the Atlantic is through Argentina and the Plata river. Modern roads built since the 1970s across southern Brazil to Paranagu and other maritime ports now offer the best surface contact to the outside world. GRAND STRATEGY Counterbalance Brazilian aspirations over the Atlantic by maintaining good relations with the United States, the current dominant power over the Atlantic. STRATEGY Increase cooperation with the United States regarding fight against corruption, anti- drug, counterterrorism and anti-smuggling activities. TACTIC Improve law enforcement, military, and intelligence capabilities. Slide 10 #3 Imperative: Maintain Partial Ownership of Itaipu Dam Grand STRATEGY Discourage Brazilian expansion inwards especially East Paraguay to prevent Brazilian mass immigration STRATEGY Enhance the United States presence in the South Atlantic Ocean TACTIC Maintain decent relations with Brazil while using economic/diplomatic ties and increase Paraguay population Simultaneously seek friendly relations with Argentina Slide 11 #4 Imperative: Populate and Develop North and Northwestern Frontier Lands Why? Boarder with Bolivia must be protected. Bolivia keeps the same motivation that caused the Chaco War: the search for an ocean port. One way to secure the border is having population living there, dont forget that 95% of the Paraguayans live in the southeast part of the country. GRAND STRATEGY Create conditions to develop the underdeveloped regions by investing in transportation infrastructures roads to begin with. STRATEGY Attract foreign investment; raise funding to aid in developing the necessary infrastructures amid institutions like the Interamerican Development Bank. TACTIC Present Paraguay as a relevant player in the efforts to stabilizing South Americas rivalries and promote hemispheric integration. Slide 12 Net Assessment