parameter sweep experiments on the remote … · enso cold event warm event ... zhistgrams of the...
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Shigeo Shigeo YODENYODEN, Kosuke ITO, , Kosuke ITO, and Yoko NAITOand Yoko NAITOKyoto Univ., JAPAN Kyoto Univ., JAPAN
AGU Chapman Conference on The Role of the Stratosphere in Climate and Climate Changein Santorini, Greece, on 28th September, 2007
Parameter Sweep ExperimentsParameter Sweep Experimentson the Remote Influences ofon the Remote Influences ofthe Equatorial QBO and Solar the Equatorial QBO and Solar
Heating around the Stratopause Heating around the Stratopause with a Mechanistic Stratospherewith a Mechanistic Stratosphere--
Troposphere Coupled ModelTroposphere Coupled Model
ENSO
possible causes of the interannual variations of the S-T coupled system (Yoden et al., 2002, JMSJ )
remote influence of the equatorial QBO and solar heating around the stratopause to extratropical lower atmosphere
StratosphericSuddenWarmings
Arctic Oscillation
stratosphericsudden warmingis a key processwhich may amplify a (small) externalforcing in high-latitudes
1. Introduction
forcing polarity polar vortex references
ENSOCold eventWarm event
cold and strongwarm and weak
(Labitzke andvan Loon, 1987)
QBOWesterly phaseEasterly phase
cold and strong warm and weak
(Holton and Tan, 1980)1963-1978, n = 18
SUNSolar minSolar max
like QBOopposite to QBO
(Labitzke + van Loon, 1987, 2006)
AOHigh index (+)Low index (-)
cold and strong warm and weak
(Thomson and Baldwin, 2001)
courtesy of Labitzke (2006) + modification
Labitzke (2006)Different forcings influencing the stratospheric polar vortex during the northern winters
OBSERVATIONS
DYNAMICAL MODELSCOMPLEX MEDIUM SIMPLE
EVOLVINGCONCEPTIAL MODELS
A schematic illustration of the optimum situation for meteorological research
“Mechanistic Circulation Model” (MCM)Hoskins (1983; Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.)
“Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and the use of models”hierarchy of numerical models
THEORIES
NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS
hierarchy of numerical models of the atmospheresimple Low-Order Model (LOM) of O(100~101) variablesfor conceptual description
ex.: Lorenz (1960,1963)
medium Mechanistic Circulation Model (MCM) of O(104~105) variablesfor understanding mechanisms
ex.: Boville (1984)
complex General Circulation Model (GCM)of O(104~107) variablesfor quantitative arguments
ex.: Phillips (1956), Smagorinsky et al. (1965), ...
Balanced attack with these models is important !
Byron Boville
in this talk, our recent studies in Kyoto with an MCM are summarizedinternal variability is mainly due to SSWs
Taguchi, Yamaga, and Yoden (2001, JAS )Taguchi and Yoden (2002a, 2002b, JAS ; 2002c, JMSJ )Nishizawa and Yoden (2005, JGR )
seasonal variation of histograms of the monthly mean temperature
Berlin data~50 years30 hPaNorth Pole
MCM15,200 years2.6 hPaNorth Pole
courtesy ofDr. Labitzke
an important question:How does the probability density function of mean [T ] change in the winter polar region depending on systematic variations in external forcings ?
effects of the equatorial QBO on winter circulation (stratospheric sudden warmings)
Naito, Taguchi, and Yoden (2003, JAS )Naito and Yoden (2005, SOLA )Naito and Yoden (2006, JAS )
+ solar effectsIto, Naito, and Yoden (2007, in preparation )
2. Effects of the equatorial QBONaito, Taguchi, and Yoden (2003; JAS, 60, 1380-)
3-D global Mechanistic Circulation Model (MCM)GFD Dennou Club AGCM5 (1998)Resolution: T21L42 (surface to the mesopause)Simplified physical processes:
– Newtonian heating/cooling under perpetual-winter condition– Rayleigh friction at the surface– dry atmosphere – idealized surface topography only in NH (winter)
» zonal wavenumber 1, amp.=1000m
“QBO-wind” forcing in the equatorial regioncf. Horinouchi and Yoden (1997)
du/dt = ・・・・・ - αQBO(φ, z){u - UQBO(φ, z)}αQBO (φ, z) = (1/30) γ (φ, z) [1/day]UQBO (φ, z) = 45γ (φ, z) cos{2π(z-zref)/zdep +θ } [m/s]
12,000-day integrations × 9 runs for different UQBO (φ, z) under constant external conditions
testing the difference between two averageslong time integrations with an MCM: N = 10,800 days
frequency distributionsof the polar temperaturein the tropospherein two runs: E1.0 and W1.0
the large sample methoda standard normal variable Z
the probability that Z reaches 40.6 for two samples of the samepopulations is very small (< 10-27)
E1.0 W1.0
~1K
Freq
uenc
y (%
)
Temperature (K)
φ = 86N, p = 449hPa
latitude
pres
sure
(hPa
)
Maximal difference;
~4K
~2K
50 hPa
250 hPa
Naito and Yoden (2005; SOLA, 1, 17-)46-year daily data (DJF) of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysiscomposite difference of [T ] between <W> – <E>
latitude
98.30 %
Most significant;99.9985%
statistical significance (%)of the composite difference
~2K
’
99.9985% significanc
e
90oN, 250hPa
WesterlyEasterly
frequency distribution of polar [T ] in the upper troposphere for Westerly or Easterly phase
highly significantbut heavily overlapped
StrongerPNJ
WeakerPNJ
Naito and Yoden (2006; JAS, 63, 1637-)“QBO-wind” forcing UQBO (φ, z) in a 3-D global MCMrole of planetary waves generated in the troposphere
10,800-day mean fields of [u ] and EP flux
φ = 86N, p = 2.6hPa o : key day of an SSW event
Total 954 events
time variation of [T ] at the polar stratosphere
time variations of [T ] and Fz during SSW events
[T ]86N Fz30-86N
E’liesW’lies
E’lies
W’lies
W’lies
E’lies
-30 0 30 [day] -30 0 30
Correlations between [T ]86N, 12hPa (+1~+6 days)and Fz30-86N at 4 p-levelsfor each run
before SSW events (a) – positive correlation
all in the stratosphereE’lies in the troposphere
– no significant correlationW’lies in the tropospheredue to the variabilityof the equatorward flux
after SSW events (b) – significant positive
correlationW’lies in the stratosphere
– significant negative correlationE’lies in the troposphere
3. Solar effect in the presence of QBOmotivations
Labitzke (1987, 2006)Correlations between 30-hPa heights and the solar flux of 10.7cm1958-2006 (49 years; NCEP/NCAR RA), (20 more years, in blue)
W E
MA W --
MI C --
MA MI
W W C
E -- --
QBO Westerly QBO Easterly
30-h
Pa
pola
r [T
] in
Feb.
influence of the 11-year solar cycleestimated solar irradiance variations in the UV part
Lean et al. (1997)
200 300 400
60
40
20
0
sola
r irr
adia
nce
varia
tions
[%]
wavelength [nm]
NCEP/CPC (1980-1997)
WMO (1999)Lon Hood (2002)
SSU (1979-1997)
+0.8 K
+2.5 K
-1 K
+1 K +0.25 K
observed annual mean solar signal in temperatureMatthes et al. (2003)
Annual mean temperature differences [K]:20-yr mean Max exp. – Min.exp.(Matthes et al., 2003)
GCM results(GRIPS)
Kodera and Kuroda (2002)changes in E-P flux and Brewer-Dobson circulation associated with the sola effect near the stratopause
Matthes et al. (2003)Observed annual mean solar signal in temperature
Experimental designsolar heating
Kodera and Kuroda(2002)
equatorial QBO identical to Naito and Yoden (2006)WWWW and EEEE
??E
??W
MIMA
φc
Results1st trialdifference of the time-mean temperature between Max.-Min.
φc = 5 Nstatistical significance
– dark color: 95% – light color: 80%
red: warmer in Max.blue: cooler in Max.
latitude
pres
sure
W1.2 - Wmin
E1.2 - Emin
MA MI
W W C
E C W
histgrams of the zonal-mean temperature for Max. and Min.
W1.2
E1.2
Wmin
Emin
parameter dependenceφc : latitude of the large meridional gradient of solar heating effects
W2.4 - Wmin
E2.4 - EminE1.2 - Emin
W1.2 - Wmin
Labitzke relationship
----E
CWW
MIMA
Wmax - Wmin
pres
sure
latitude
pres
sure
latitude
Emax - Emin
Labitzke relationship
WCE
CWW
MIMA
Observation: composite difference of [T ] and significance
QBO effects on zonal mean fieldsstatistical significant difference of the composites; [W] - [E]polar vortex (zonal mean u, T )upper troposphere and aboveboth in the model and the real atmospherealthough heavy overlapping in frequency distribution
EP flux diagnosis of SSW eventssystematic dependence on the phase of the QBO
before and after SSWafter effect in the mid-latitude troposphere
smaller upward EP flux in the troposphere in Easterly phase
Solar effect in the presence of QBOconsistent with Labitzke (1987, 2006) although the composite difference is smaller than “QBO” and the PDFs overlap heavily
4. Concluding remarks
Labitzke(1987) MA MI
W W C
E -- --
Uniqueness of our studyparameter sweep for the phase of the QBO and solar forcingsstatistical analysis based on large sample size
Weak points of the experiment on QBO/Solar effectszonal wavenumber 1 forcing only
wavenumber 2 type SSW ?dependence on the height of the solar forcing
resonance ?perpetual winter runs
seasonal march ?Gray et al. (2004)
QBO-West QBO-East
Max.
Min.
Thank you !
Kodera and Kuroda(2002)
a possible mechanism ofthe downward influenceby planetary wave –mean zonal flowinteraction
early winter anomalies
solar Max:larger Ty and Usmaller Fsmaller v* and w*larger T in the equatorial
lower stratosphere
3. Solar effect in the presence of QBOMotivations
Labitzke (1987, 2006)Correlations between 30-hPa heights and the solar flux of 10.7cm1958-2006 (49 years; NCEP/NCAR RA), (20 more years, in blue)
W E
MA W C
MI C W
QBO Westerly QBO Easterly
30-h
Pa
heig
ht [k
m]
MA MI
W W C
E C W