part 2 -data. motorcycle danger - smsa 2015 national symposium i october 9, 2015 i 2 scientific...

Part 2 -DATA

Motorcycle Danger - SMSA 2015 National Symposium I October 9, 2015 I 2

Scientific Method requires us to consider,and reason through, appropriate data sources and strategies.


For Example, which data?Let’s start with the Relationship between:

Dose

Exposure

Intensity

Dose = Intensity x Exposure


How high the sun is in the sky relates to Intensity.

How long you stay in the sun relates to Exposure.

Whether or not you get sunburn depends on your Dose:

Dose = Intensity X Exposure

Image courtesy of vectorolie at FreeDigitalPhotos.net


• VMT - The more miles you travel, the more exposure to the danger

Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) is an Exposure Measure

• The more you are exposed to a danger, the more likely you are to get hurt

• VMT is the best available exposure measure for our work


We are growing more confident in the reliability of VMT data because

The vehicle miles traveled tax is a road user mileage-based fee. The VMT tax will be based on the type of vehicle and on how many miles the vehicle has traveled.

of the Vehicle Miles Traveled TAX.

They are "sharpening the pencils" on VMT now!


After careful considerations, we choose these Data Sets:

• Population (Pop)

• Driver Fatality Counts (DF)

• All Fatalities In Collisions Counts (AF)

• Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)


FARS: Fatality Analysis Reporting System

When there is a fatal crash, a crash report is generated and submitted to FARS.

It is difficult to be killed in a crashand not be counted.

We have a high confidence in the veracity of the count of fatalities reported in crashes.


We define the “driver” as the person, carried within or upon a vehicle, who is operating or controlling the vehicle.


We can look at subgroups of drivers, such as motorcycle drivers, or passenger vehicle drivers.


TMDF = Total Motorcycle Driver Fatalities

TPVDF = Total Passenger Vehicle Driver Fatalities

Now we can count Driver Fatalities

Licensed Drivers


We can subdivide the driver fatality counts into smaller categories, such as

Helmeted and Licensed, etc.

Helmeted Drivers


We model the danger of driving a MotorCycle with:

Measuring Driver Danger

Total Motorcycle Driver Fatalities (TMDF)=

Vehicle Miles Traveled, Motorcycle (VMT(MC))


We model the danger of driving a Passenger Vehicle with:

Passenger Vehicle Driver Danger

Total Passenger Vehicle Driver Fatalities (TPVDF)=

Vehicle Miles Traveled, Passenger Vehicle (VMT(PV))


The relative driver danger can be calculated from the ratio of the these two rates


Motorcycle Passenger Vehicle

Relative Danger

2010 215 7.88 27.3

2011 220 7.58 29.0

2012 203 7.68 26.4

2013 200 7.45 26.9

Average 210 7.65 27.4

In Our Model, Driving a Motorcycle is 27 times more dangerous than driving a Passenger Vehicle, mile for mile.

We average the most recent four years so as to provide enough data points to smooth out random fluctuations. (Most current FARS data is 2013)

However, four years is not so long of a period that it washes out the current trend. (2014 data available Dec 2015.)

Driver Fatalities per Billion Miles Traveled


Driver Data and VMT Data is useful for Driver Danger.

This leads us to looking at:

All Fatality Dataand

Population

But what about Danger to Society?


All Fatalities, Motorcycle

All fatalities are counted in crashes where at least one motorcycle is involved.

All persons killed in the crash are counted.


All Fatalities, Passenger Vehicles

All fatalities are counted in crashes where at least one passenger vehicle is involved.

All persons killed in the crash are counted.


All Fatalities Count

The count includes all people killed in the crash:

Drivers of any of the vehicles

Passengers of any of the vehicles

Pedestrians

Anyone who was killed by the crash/incident


We will associate Population with "All Fatalities“ Data:

If there is more population, there are more fatalities.

If there are more cars, there are more crashes, more pedestrians, more crashes, more trucks, more crashes, etc.


Many are paying attention to this number.

Population is connected to many governmental concerns; the representation in government and taxation being of great importance.


As population increases and decreases, we, naturally, expect changes in the number of crashes and the number of fatalities to increase

and decrease accordingly.

An Important principle in Math and Science:

Side Note: This is why the definition of the natural baseand natural log is dx/dy = x


Societal Danger is Modeled by:

All Fatalities (AF) count

divided by

Population (Pop)


Using the count TMAF = Total Motorcycle All Fatalities

and Population

Motorcycle Societal Danger is modeled by:

TMAF/PopTotal Motorcycle All Fatalities

=Population


Societal Danger Model: All Fatalities Count per Population

Motorcycle Societal Danger is modeled by: TMAF/Pop

Passenger Vehicle Societal Danger is modeled by: TPVAF/Pop

It is important that the “Pop” is the same,whether for motorcycle or passenger vehicle rate.


TMAF/Pop and TPVAF/Pop

Can be used to compare your region to the rest of the country, andother regions.


In addition to changes in training andlicensing of drivers.

This societal danger model can be used to detect changes to:

Roadway Laws Gear Vehicle specification Etc.


TMAF/Pop

We consider this inclusive rate to be the most important of all the

motorcycle fatality rates.

All Fatalities per Population


1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Total Motorcycle All Fatalities in Crashes Involving at Least One MotorcycleUSA TMAF/Pop

All

Fat

aliti

es p

er M

illio

n P

opul

atio

n in

C

rash

es In

volv

ing

at L

east

One

Mot

orcy

cle

Please go to the Data page of

MotorcycleDanger.com

to compare your state. All TMAF/Pop onthe website are purposefully charted on

the same scale to make comparisons easier.

http://motorcycledanger.com/

part 2 -data. motorcycle danger - smsa 2015 national symposium i october 9, 2015 i 2 scientific...

Documents

national symposium

danger vehicle miles

motorcycle drivers

motorcycle vmtmc slide

vmt slide

data slide

work slide

intensity x exposure