part iii douglas m. mcgaughey, cpp, cas

Part IIIDouglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com

Recap of Parts I and IIRecap of Parts I and II

Part I: MetamorphosisPart I: Metamorphosis

LEGAL SUPPORTER

LEGAL SUPPORTER

ILLEGAL/LOGISTICAL SUPPORTER

ILLEGAL/LOGISTICAL SUPPORTER

MILITANT /

WEEKEND WARRIORMILITANT /

WEEKEND WARRIOR

HARDCORE TERRORIS

T

HARDCORE TERRORIS

T

Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS www.29-ten.com

In Part I: Metamorphosis, we discussed the metamorphosis of a law abiding citizen to a hard-core Terrorist.

We discussed the observables such as changes in attitude, clothing, associations.

And we examined the “Trigger” effect, the “last straw” that pushed an individual over the edge.

There are Many Causes of There are Many Causes of TerrorismTerrorism

Geo-political issues, Ethnicity, Religious beliefs, Pro-choice, Pro-life,White Supremacists,Nigerian oil, Anti-war,Poverty

Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP , CAS www.29-ten.com

Narcotics, Environment (ELF), Save the Whales, Save-the-Planet, Animals (ALF)Independence, Education, Fur

Terrorism IS NOT just about Radical Islamic beliefs, and terrorism does not just affect militaries and governments – Terrorism affects EVERYONE

The Bottom LineThe Bottom Line

If You Believe in Your CauseIf You Believe in Your Cause

Under the Right Type of PressureUnder the Right Type of Pressure

Almost Any One Can Become a Terrorist


Under the right circumstances Under the right circumstances

Part II: MethodPart II: MethodMEDIA &

PUBLICITY

MEDIA & PUBLICITY

MEDIA & PUBLICITY

FINAL TARGETSELECTION(S)

ON/OFF-SITETARGET RESEARCH

WAIT

ESCAPE & EVASION

CURRENT SITUATION MEDIA & PUBLICITY

INITIAL TARGET SELECTIONS

THETHE

TERRORTERROR

IST IST

CYCLECYCLE

THE ACT !THE ACT !

AFTER ACTION REVIEWS

MOVEMENT TO TARGET

DECISION TIME

PLAN DEVELOPMENT

LOGISTICS SUPPORT

WEAPON ASSEMBLY

Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP , CAS www.29-ten.com

In Part II: Method, we looked at the 13 phases of a terrorist incident.

We examined why one target may be chosen over another

We looked at the assessment of targets

We discussed “the Act”, and that it doesn’t always have to take lives to send a message

Lastly, we discussed the role of the media and publicity in the terrorist’s operations.

Terrorism, Like War, is Terrorism, Like War, is PropagandaPropaganda

It’s not how you say it - - it’s who says it.

“We do not talk to say something, but to attain a certain effect.”

Joseph Goebbels

“ Think of the press as a great keyboard on which the government can play.”

Fact: Terrorism IS “Front Page” Fact: Terrorism IS “Front Page” NewsNews

Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS, CI Special Agent (USA Ret.) www.29-ten.com

TERRORISM IS A PUBLICITY BATTLE TERRORISM IS A PUBLICITY BATTLE FOR THE VIEWING AUDIENCEFOR THE VIEWING AUDIENCE

WHATEVER SIDE THE AUDIENCE WHATEVER SIDE THE AUDIENCE BACKSBACKS

WINS !!!Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CAS, www.29-ten.com

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Part III: MitigationPart III: Mitigation

Mitigating Your Risks

• It’s Risk Mitigation - - Not Risk Avoidance• ypes of Targets - - Which One Are You• Liaison Operations – You Are Who You Know• Understanding the Threat• Defensible Space - - You Can’t Control Everything• Thorough Randomness - - A Roll of the Dice• CPTED – Use The Environment to Your Advantage• Open Source Intelligence• Conclusions


Remember - It’s Risk Remember - It’s Risk Mitigation - Mitigation -

Not Risk AvoidanceNot Risk Avoidance• An organization does not have unlimited funds or manpower to ensure its

safety and security 100% of the time

• Organizations need to focus on specific threats and develop appropriate countermeasures to address these in order of probability

• What threat they address and when they employ offensive measures and defensive countermeasures will be the basis of mitigating those risks

Recent statistics indicate that American business interests have been targeted more frequently than those of the Federal Government. ~ U.S. Department of State

This means that a contractor may be more susceptible to harm than a Government employee.


To Mitigate the Threat, First To Mitigate the Threat, First You Have to Know the You Have to Know the

Enemy Enemy • Understand the terrorist’s motivation• Understand their strengths and weaknesses• Understand their Social Networks• Understand their sources of financial aide• Understand their logistics procurement process• Understand how they recruit• Understand their communications channels


“If you know the enemy and know yourself, your victory will not stand in doubt"

~ Sun Tzu

To Know the Enemy –To Know the Enemy –You Must LiaiseYou Must Liaise

Liaison is about obtaining AND sharing information

Liaison can be cultural, religious, business, political, security etc…

A good liaison operation will ensure you are the first to know, instead of the last.

Liaison endears you to your partner;you both have something to gain,and lose from the relationship

In liaison, as Reagan said, “Trust, but verify.”

A good contact can warn you prior to the terrorist act.


Liaise with Everyone!!Liaise with Everyone!!Don’t Just Stop at the Don’t Just Stop at the

PolicePolice

Local Businesses

Religious Organizations

ODNI

DOD

Host NationLEA

Private Security Organizations

FBI

DEA

ASIS

GeneralPublic


Neighborhood Watch

DHSFederal Marshalls

Local/StateLEA

Local/CityGovernment

Consulates and

Embassies

Global NGOOrganizations

Travel Agencies

Social Media

Networks

Taxi Operations

The terrorist, like the common criminal starts small, usually within the local communities and then expands their operations from this secure environment.

Most often it is going to be the local beat cop, or small business ownerwho notices these events and reports them

Cultivating these sources will benefit you and your organization - give you forewarning - and reduce your risk

Once You Understand the Once You Understand the Enemy, You have to Understand Enemy, You have to Understand What Type of Target your AreWhat Type of Target your Are

• Strategic Value Target: Long term impact, executive leadership, strategic centers, national command centers

• High Payoff: Immediate impact to energy and commerce• High Value: Degrade target’s ability to respond militarily or to sustain

itself economically• Low Value: Contribute to fear and harassment of local society. • Tactical Value: Degrade local LEA ability to react and respond• Symbolic Value: Heighten public fear and includes monuments, public

structures, government reps and diplomats• Ecological Value: Damage natural resources such as crops, natural

resources and industries• You may be on multiple target lists• Revaluate your threats randomly, as they will change


Know Your EnvironmentKnow Your Environment

- Determine Why You Are a Target What is “IT” that makes you a target

- Remember, you may be a secondary “Personality” Target - Remember, you may be a secondary “Environmental” target- Remember, you may be a secondary “Inhabitant” target- Remember, you may be a secondary “Arterial” target- Remember, you may be a secondary “IS” target

Remember, You May Be a Remember, You May Be a Secondary TargetSecondary Target


Rule Number 1: Rule Number 1: A Terrorist is like electricity - -

All things being equal , they will take the path of least resistance, the insecure operation that will offer the best chance for success.


When Terrorists Assess When Terrorists Assess Targets They Adhere to Targets They Adhere to

Rule Number 1Rule Number 1

You DO NOT want to be the “PATH

OF LEAST RESISTANCE”


All Things Being Equal, the All Things Being Equal, the “Path of Least Resistance” “Path of Least Resistance”

isis


An Exploitable Weakness• An exploitable weakness is an observable activity (a pattern), or absence of activity (failure to respond to alarms)

• An exploitable weakness can occur on-site, off-site, in-transit , or electronically


Threat mitigation IS NOT single-faceted. Threat mitigation MUST involve

ALL ASPECTS of your life.

A robust security plan at work, does you no good,

if you are attacked on your way to the office.

To Mitigate the Threat You To Mitigate the Threat You Need to Realize a Few Need to Realize a Few

ThingsThings

• Travel to/from Defensible Spaces• Guard Force/Corporate Security Routes/Times• Visitor, Parcel and Personnel Item Screening• Parking Space/Visitor/VIP/Emergency• Emergency Evacuation Routes• Emergency Evacuation Areas• Logistics Supply Routes/Times• Business Meetings Times/Locations• Corporate Computer Security Reviews

To Be Effective – To Be Effective – Thorough Randomness Thorough Randomness

MUST Cross ALL ActivitiesMUST Cross ALL Activities


You Mitigate the Threat byThinking Outside the Box!


You Mitigate the Threat byYou Mitigate the Threat byEducating EveryoneEducating Everyone


I’m not just talking about the employees – I’m talking about the kids and spouses. Who knows better about something out of the ordinary better than a teenager, or a nosey spouse?

Every new set of educated eyes and ears is another layer of security.

After you understand the threat the next step would be to evaluate the threat and establish your defenses. Like your education programs, your defenses should also be

layered. And remember, you can’t protect everything, so you have to determine your “defensible space”


You Mitigate the Threat byYou Mitigate the Threat byDetermining Your Defensible Determining Your Defensible

Space Space

Defensible SpaceDefensible Space

through the use of security personnel, electronic monitoring, access control, the environment and the overall workforce, whether soldiers or civilians.


Is the ability to control access and monitor activities within a defined perimeter, such as a building, installation, residence, or facility -

Choosing Your Defensible Choosing Your Defensible SpaceSpace

• You can’t control everything – all of the time• You have to decide what is worth protecting • You have to develop layered barriers to mitigate the threat • These layers force a perpetrator to make conscious decisions• These decisions are observable• Choose your defensible spaces based on controllability and limit the

numbers with access – whether tangible or intangible


You Mitigate the Threat to You Mitigate the Threat to Your Defensible Space byYour Defensible Space by

Layering Your SecurityLayering Your Security

Layering your Defenses

Layering your Education

And - - Layering your Responses


You Layer Your Security Based onYou Layer Your Security Based onThe Four “D’s” of SecurityThe Four “D’s” of Security


Deterrence, Detection, Defense, Defeat

Deterrence: Is when the terrorist perceives your operation’s security to be too great to overcome ; this is based on your offensive security projections

Detection: Is your ability to note the presence of an intruder based on your layered offensive security and defensive countermeasures – with enough time to put in place a planned response

Defense: Is your ability to delay, or prevent an intruder from achieving their goal

Defeat: Is the compilation of Deterrence, Detection and a solid Defense

The Most Important ofThe Most Important ofThe Four “D’s” The Four “D’s” ISIS Deterrence Deterrence


The greatest general is the one who can win without fighting.

~Sun Tzu

Deterrence is a battle won in the minds of the enemy.~Sun Tzu

As my maneuvering has no fixed form or predictable response, even the spy who has reached my inner sanctum will not be able to discover my true intent. Nor would the wiliest opponent to able counter-measures against me.

~ Sun Tzu

One VERY Important Facet One VERY Important Facet of Deterrence ISof Deterrence IS

Thorough RandomnessThorough Randomness


Thorough RandomnessThorough Randomness

Exponentially decreases your risks


While it escalates the threat to the terrorist

Thorough Randomness Thorough Randomness Eliminates PatternsEliminates Patterns

Reduces the Terrorist’s “Luck Factor”

By eliminating patterns – you mitigate your risks

By recognizing patterns – you mitigate your risks


So, Just What Is So, Just What Is Thorough Randomness?Thorough Randomness?

Thorough Randomness is the sum of its parts – it is evaluating your total physical security program, breaking it down into its individual facets, and implementing one specific action, or a group of activities, applicable to everyone, on a completely random basis in terms of time and duration.

Ran-dom: Made, or occurring without definite aim, reason, or pattern

Tho-rough: Complete with regard to every detail; not superficial or partial

Practicing Thorough Randomness can be as easy as – rolling the dice.


Applying Thorough Applying Thorough Randomness to Your Randomness to Your

Defensible SpaceDefensible SpaceBy expanding the variables of time and route into you daily activitiesYou have increased your success factors exponentially;

By varying your routes and times, you have forced the terrorist toadjust their targeting tactics and logistical resources such as manpower and equipment;

To be successful the terrorist must get closer to your defensible spaceto observe your activities;

As they come closer in, their presence and activities may becomeobservable and thus make them vulnerable;

This gives your security force the upper hand in pro-active counter-measures

Rule Number 1: All things being equal, A terrorist is like electricity and will choose the path of least resistance

If your security counter-measures are evaluated to pose a threat to the accomplishment of the mission - -

The terrorist may

choose another target…


To Be Effective – To Be Effective – The Countermeasures Must The Countermeasures Must

Be SimpleBe Simple

"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler."


Let’s look at employing Thorough Randomness in one aspect of your day - - travelling to/from your Defensible Spaces


One Thing That IS NOT One Thing That IS NOT Random - You Always Check Random - You Always Check

Your Vehicle Before Getting on Your Vehicle Before Getting on The RoadThe Road

VEHICLE SECURITY PRIOR TO ENTERING VEHICLE CHECK DOORS/HOOD/TRUNK CHECK WHEELS/TIRES/LUGS CHECK UNDER VEHICLE FOR LOOSE WIRES, STRINGS, FLUIDS CHECK INTERIOR FRONT/BACK SEATS IF SOMETHING IS WRONG - WALK AWAY

GET IN AND DRIVE - DO NOT SIT IN VEHICLE

Not noticing these things in your ‘defensible space” may result in yourvehicle being in-operable in the terrorist’s “controllable space”.

Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP. CPP www.29-ten.com

A simple thing like a few lose lug nuts can disable your vehicle ten minutes after departing a defensible space – leaving you vulnerable.

Once You Get on the RoadOnce You Get on the Road

VEHICLE SECURITY ON THE ROAD

GET IN, LOCK DOORS/WINDOWS STAY IN VEHICLE GROUPS STAY ON WELL TRAVELED THOROUGHFARES DRIVE ON INSIDE/OUTSIDE LANE WHERE YOU CAN MANEUVER AWAY LEAVE ENOUGH SPACE AT INTERSECTIONS TO EXECUTE EVASIVE ACTIONS AVOID DISTINCTIVE AMERICAN VEHICLE MARK INGS VARY DEPARTURE TIMES / ROUTES LEAVE IT INERARY WITH OFFICE/FAMILY

Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CPP www.29-ten.com

By utilizing the same vehicle, same route and travelling at the same time every day you throw away

randomness and set up an exploitable pattern . A pattern will make you an easy target!

Forgotten RandomnessForgotten Randomness

Defensible SpaceResidence ConsulateDeparture Times: 0745 - 0800Arrival Times: 0815 – 0830

X

X

X

Look-Outs Observable PatternsChoke Points


Pattern Established

Defensible Space (Out to In)Residence ConsulateDefense Measures: CCTV, Guards, Barriers, Badges, Vehicle/Parcel Checks, Uniforms, Vehicle Searches, Safe Rooms, Irregular Activities, Thorough Randomness, etc…

But these measures cannot protect you outside your defensible spaces.


Employing Thorough Employing Thorough RandomnessRandomness

To/From Your Defensible SpacesTo/From Your Defensible Spaces

Employing thorough randomness, utilizing multiple vehicles, varying routes and travelling at the

different times every day you exponentially reduce your risks.

Defensible SpaceResidence ConsulateDeparture Times: 0745 - 0800

Arrival Times: 0815 – 0830

Travel Route – One

0645 - 0830

0745 - 0915

Multiple


Employing Thorough Employing Thorough RandomnessRandomness

To/From Your Defensible To/From Your Defensible SpacesSpaces

Now to be successful, the Terrorist will have to put in place more personnel, keep them there for longer periods of time, use more support equipment, expand their logistics, all of which may draw unwanted attention to them.

This simple random measure on your part will exponentially decrease your risk and force the terrorist to re-evaluate their plan.

Risk MitigatedX

X

X

X X

XX

XX

X

Thorough Randomness Thorough Randomness Requires More of the Requires More of the Terrorist’s Logistics Terrorist’s Logistics


Defensible SpaceResidence ConsulateDeparture Times: 0745 - 0800

0645 - 0815Arrival Times: 0815 – 0830

0715 - 0845Travel Route – One

Multiple

• Travel to/from Defensible Spaces• Guard Force/Corporate Security Routes/Times• Visitor, Parcel and Personnel Item Screening• Parking Space/Visitor/VIP/Emergency• Emergency Evacuation Routes• Emergency Evacuation Areas• Logistics Supply Routes/Times• Business Meetings Times/Locations• Corporate Computer Security Reviews

Thorough RandomnessThorough RandomnessAnd A Roll of the Dice And A Roll of the Dice


For emergencies, a simple role of the dice can determine which location your people assemble at after vacating the facility .

For the guard force, a simple roll of a die can determine which route they take, or what time they depart.

For visitors, a simple role of the dice can determine which person you question and which briefcase you search.

For logistics, a simple role of the dice can determine which route you take and the day of the week you travel.

“Deception causes the deceived to take action that is otherwise not in their best interest. ”

~ SunTzu


Hey man, you ever heard of CPTED?

CPTEDCPTED

• CPTED is Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design

• CPTED strategies rely upon the ability to influence offender decisions that precede criminal/terrorist acts by affecting the built, social and administrative environment.

• CPTED uses the environment, natural, or man-made to deter conscious behavior, or funnel the would-be perpetrator onto a specific route

• CPTED augments other access control and physical security barriers and deterrents


CPTED is a tool to be applied to your security arsenal, used in conjunction with other tools such as access control systems, CCTV,

badging, thorough randomness and education to mitigate your risks.

CPTED Mitigates Your Risks ByCPTED Mitigates Your Risks ByAdvertising Your Territory Advertising Your Territory


Red and Green Zone Channeling: Using natural and man-made barriers you can channel an audience in a direction you want (Green) and deter them from accessing locations you don’t (Red)

Green and Hard-scaping: Using the natural environment such as thorn bushes, holly trees and cacti to act as a natural physical barrier; using the earth removed from a building foundation to erect a berm around a facility three feet high, will eliminate any threat of a perpetrator driving a vehicle into your building.

Windows and Lighting: Well placed lights can illuminate paths for intended guests, while motion sensitive lights can illuminate intruders moving off a public area. Placing lighted windows or open spaces in long walls, or alcoves, can give the indication to a would be intruder that the area is under observation.

CPTED is blatant and suggestive marking of your territory – any individual consciously deciding to enter your marked territory IS A THREAT!

Fencing and Signage: By using signage, and fencing, you force people to make a conscious decision to proceed into your territory; their decision to move ahead, is a trigger to implement your countermeasures.

Never Forget the Media and Never Forget the Media and All That Open Source All That Open Source

IntelligenceIntelligence

The Internet can provide the criminal information on everything from information about key players and family, key up-coming events, over-head high-resolution images of your facility, major transportation routes and times, on-going operations, facility locations, addresses and phone numbers, legal and personnel issues, government contracts, building blueprints . . . Anything.


The adversary uses this information in gauging the public opinion, recruiting insiders, planning and perpetrating an act.

The media is the best friend the adversary (terrorist/criminal) has. They provide free, corroborated raw intelligence, without strings.

You must constantly and randomly evaluate this open source information.

Once You Believe Have Covered Once You Believe Have Covered Everything - Go “Red Team” Everything - Go “Red Team”

Yourself!Yourself!

In government circles, Red Teaming is normally associated with assessing vulnerabilities and limitations of systems or structures. In exercises and war games, Red Teaming refers to the work performed to provide an adversarial perspective, especially when this perspective includes plausible tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP) as well as realistic policy and doctrine.

What is a Red Team?

Red Teaming in a nutshell, is taking what you know about the adversary’scapabilities and tactics and using them against your activity in order to evaluate where your security is weak.

Like any good plan, the Red Team assessment must be conducted by a competent team and updated regularly - - lives depend on its thoroughness

and honesty.

Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CPP www.29-ten.com

The Complete Picture:The Complete Picture:ConclusionsConclusions

In mitigating your risks, remember that nothing can guarantee your safety. There are multiple activities you can undertake to mitigate your risks:

Realize that you can only protect so muchYou Must Understand the Environment and PlayersYou Must Understand Physical and Personnel SecurityYou Must Vary your responses (drills, duress signals, fire,

bomb, etc…)You Must Practice Thorough Randomness

Lastly, have an exit plan.


Contact InformationContact Information

Douglas M. McGaughey, CPP, CASCI Special Agent (USA Ret.)

[email protected]: (410) 693-8653


mailto:[email protected]

part iii douglas m. mcgaughey, cpp, cas

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