Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

PART III: How BET_EF worksPART III: How BET_EF works

PART III: How BET_EF worksPART III: How BET_EF works

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_EF: main formBET_EF: main form

1. Hazard procedure2. Event tree selection3. Output selection

4. Geometry visualization5. Options

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_EF: Hazard ProcedureBET_EF: Hazard Procedure

1. Hazard procedure2. Event tree selection3. Output selection

4. Geometry visualization5. Options

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_EF: Event Tree selectionBET_EF: Event Tree selection

1. Hazard procedure

2. Event tree selection3. Output selection

4. Geometry visualization5. Options

PATH SELECTION

NODE SELECTION

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_EF: Event Tree selectionBET_EF: Event Tree selection

1. Hazard procedure2. Event tree selection

3. Output selection

4. Geometry visualization5. Options

Probability that all the events in the selected path occur contemporaneously

Probability that the events at the selected node occur, given previous nodes

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_EF: Absolute probabilityBET_EF: Absolute probability

Cumulative Distribution Probability Density Function

Distribution’s parameters

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_EF: Conditional probabilityBET_EF: Conditional probability

Averages (sum to 1)Distribution’s parameters

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_EF: Vent mapBET_EF: Vent map

It can be both CONDITIONAL or ABSOLUTE probability

When you move the mouse on the map… it is shown:- Location- Coordinates- Average Probability

The map can be saved in bmp or loaded in GoogleEarth

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_EF: Vent map… savedBET_EF: Vent map… saved

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_EF: Vent map… GoogleEarth 2DBET_EF: Vent map… GoogleEarth 2D

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_EF: Vent map… GoogleEarth 3DBET_EF: Vent map… GoogleEarth 3D

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_EF: MonitoringBET_EF: Monitoring

When Monitoring is considered (see Hazard Procedure), you will be asked to input or load monitoring measurements…

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_EF: MonitoringBET_EF: Monitoring

Measurements may be…

- directly input

- loaded from an ascii file (all nodes together)

Thresholds interval may be visualized…

Each measure may be localized…

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_EF: MonitoringBET_EF: Monitoring

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

BET_EF: ManualBET_EF: Manual

The BET_MANUAL describes:

- each function of the software- step by step the installation procedure

A link to the .html BET_MANUAL can be found:

1) start menu2) button HELP in all the forms of BET_EF and BET_UPGRADE 3) on internet: http://www.bo.ingv.it/bet

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV

More on BET:

CoV5:-Oral 12-O-11, Nov. 22 (Thu) Hall A, 1450-1510Integrating Eruption Forecasting and Cost/benefit Analysis for decision making During an Emergency: the Case of BET_EF Applied to Vesuvius in the MESIMEX Experiment-poster 21b-P-18, Nov. 22 (Thu.), 1640-1800 The Bayesian Event Tree for short- and long-term eruption forecasting at Campi Flegrei, Italy,

Other…- http://www.bo.ingv.it/bet

- Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., Selva J., BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and sort-term eruption forecasting, Bull. Volcanol., DOI 10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y

More on BET:

CoV5:-Oral 12-O-11, Nov. 22 (Thu) Hall A, 1450-1510Integrating Eruption Forecasting and Cost/benefit Analysis for decision making During an Emergency: the Case of BET_EF Applied to Vesuvius in the MESIMEX Experiment-poster 21b-P-18, Nov. 22 (Thu.), 1640-1800 The Bayesian Event Tree for short- and long-term eruption forecasting at Campi Flegrei, Italy,

Other…- http://www.bo.ingv.it/bet

- Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., Selva J., BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and sort-term eruption forecasting, Bull. Volcanol., DOI 10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y