partnership to advance clean energy deployment (pace-d 2.0) … · 2019. 9. 2. · output of demand...

Partnership to Advance Clean Energy Deployment (PACE-D 2.0)

Technical Assistance Program : Technical Workshop

Strategic Energy Planning for Renewable Deployment

18 September 2019, Ranchi, Jharkhand

•2/18/2019 FOOTER GOES HERE 1

Mr. Sumedh Agarwal | Dr. Nagaraja R

Agenda

Resource Planning - States

❑Strategic Resource Planning (SRP) - What & Why?

❑Current Practices

❑Case Studies from Rajasthan and Karnataka

❑PACE-D 2.0 Program Approach for Jharkhand Power

Sector Planning

• Renewable is cheaper compared to conventional

• Time is not far that soon with the thrust on RE

– RE will no longer enjoy must run status

– Permissible variation limit will shrink

• However challenge remains, RE is uncertain and

unpredictable and hence require a better

understanding of load curve to support

integration.

RE to play a big role in India’s Power Sector


RE Installed

78 GW(22% of Installed Cap. May’19)

RE Target by Y2022

175 GWAiming for 225GW

Falling RE Prices

Wind ₹ 2.5 -2.85/kWh

Solar ₹ 2.4 -2.65/kWh

Discoms’ Avg. Procurement

Cost

₹ 3.6/kWh(APPC FY18-19)

2223

10 5 3

27

18 12 9

0%

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40%

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80%

100%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Thermal & Hydro (GW) RE (GW)

1. Capacity Constraints – Power Shortage during Peak Times

2. High AT&C Losses

3. Unforeseen Shortages of Fuel and Existing planning practices –

lead to steep rise in power purchase cost.

4. Power procurement cost is 70-80% of the total cost of supply.

5. Discoms needs to be better equipped to deal with new

challenges of RE dominated power portfolio.

Current Challenges Faced by Distribution Utilities


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Fill Peak with PeakersBackdown TP

Average

Peak

Resource Planning - Conventional Approach

• Thermal Resource fairly a base load, predictable and stable.

• The peak requirements were attended through Peaker’s

• Demand was considered uncontrollable.

• Demand was higher than supply. Load control was through load shedding.

Now Supply Curve also Varies with time (RE)


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Matching Supply and Demand Curve- Possibility of Higher

RE Share without External Support

• Substantial efforts are on for RE (Wind, Solar, Storage) forecasting

• Requirement is to predict a better and granular demand curve.

• Demand can be controlled by DR and time of the day tariff.

Dispatch on Dec. 14, 2018

• PLF of TPPs – 71%

• RE Generation Share –

15%

• Avg. Power Cost – Rs

4.88/u

How Supply and Demand Curve Matching Helps Higher RE Uptake ? –

A Simulation Study for Rajasthan


Capacity Add.

2x Solar

2.5x Wind

Others-Nil

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Actual Dispatch on December 14, 2018Nuclear

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Wind

Solar

ST Market

Demand (FY2019)

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Simulation for December 14, 2022

Demand FY2018

Demand FY2022

With better Demand Forecast & Resource Planning, RE Share can Get Doubled

Simulation for Dec. 14, 2022

• PLF of TPPs – 72%

• RE Generation Share – 30%

• Avg. Power Cost– Rs 4.63/u

(Decrease of about 5.2%)


Karnataka : Resources Optimization using Simulation Tool

2019

No stranded asset created

No system level grid security issues

Savings of 1500 Crs/annum

Peak Demand : 11245 MW

Resources : Thermal + Hydro + RE (W+S)(55%) (14%) (31%)

Business As Usual (+) RE Scenario (+)

New Thermal 4500 MW 2400 MW

RE 0 MW 6400 MW

Storage - 2000 MW

Cost 18,500 Cr. 17000 Cr.

2030

Peak Demand : 19127 MW

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Generation Dispatch on 25-03-2030

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How Karnataka Exceeded RPO Target ?


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Demand Solar

Due to shifting of part of

Irrigation pump sets to Solar

generation time. Total irrigation

contributes to 1/3rd of State

Energy

Approach for Power Sector Planning for Jharkhand

Scaling & OutreachProcurement

Plan Software Design &

Development

Study

Current Practices

v/s Best Practices

Develop Design Scale

Develop Methodology and

design tool in 3 modules

(demand forecasting,

resource planning and least

cost procurement)

Undertake study to assess

utility demand forecasting,

resource planning and least

cost power procurement

practices.

• Build Capacity of

planners,

• Disseminate

Knowledge and

• Replicate for

national adoption.

• Deploy Tool and

develop procurement

plan,

• Model guidelines and

regulation

Support and Engagement with Stakeholders in Jharkhand

Management Steering

Committee

Steering Committee

Project Committee

USAID/ MNRE

Secretary, Power (E) Dept. –Chairman

MD, JBVNL,

MD, JUSNL ; MD, JUVNL

Director, JREDA

Secretary, JSERC

Representative USAID

Representative Tetra Tech

ED, C&R, JBVNL - Chairman

ED, O&M, JBVNL; GM, IT, JBVNL

Chief Eng, C&R, JBVNL,

SE, Commercial, JBVNL

SE, C&R, EE C&R, EE-Comm. JBVNL

Representative USAID

Tetra Tech

Approach for Power Sector Planning in Jharkhand


PPO D – G Mapping

Approach❑Demand Forecast Module

❑Generation Mapping Module

❑Power Procurement Optimization Module

Demand Forecast Module


• Dependent variable: Category-wise historical annual

energy & peak power.

• Independent

Variables: Historical and predicted GDP,

population, per capita

income, policies, etc.

• Energy forecast up to 20 years on

yearly basis

• Peak demand estimations as per load

factor

• Forecast values of dependent variable

i.e. monthly energy in MU and load

(MW) for up to 3 years with hourly

resolution.

Output of demand

forecasting is used in

demand-generation

mapping & SRP

Long Term

Load

Forecast

Medium

Term Load

Forecast

•Multiple regression analysis

•Time series methods like

ARIMA

•Artificial Neural Networks

•Adaptive methods.

• Dependent variable: Historical monthly energy & peak

power with hourly resolution.

• Independent Variables: Historical and predicted

weather parameters,

seasonality, locality

Generation Mapping Module


• Projected demand

• Available generation sources

• Planned and forced outages

• Signed contracts

• Generation Adequacy up to 20 years

• Surplus / Deficit status and quantum

• Application will generate the optimal

plan to meet demand at the lowest

cost, considering the available

resources up to 3 years

Power

Procurement

Optimization

Demand

Generation

Mapping

Strategic

Resource

Planning

•Mapping = ∑ Total available generation

- Projected demand for each year

•MILP optimization techniques aligns

variations in IRP with variations in REs

• Generation

• Uncertainty

• Hourly demand profiles

• DSM and Energy Efficiency

policies

Power Procurement Optimization


•Projected demand & available

generation.

•Penalty for unmet demand

•Contract obligations

•Variable RE generation

portfolio

•Power Markets data

Power

Procurement

Optimization

•Risk-based procurement

strategy assistance to

manage price and volume

risk associated with

procurement in the market

or by contracts applying

MILP optimization

techniques

Application provides the best possible

energy mix, considering power

procurement from contracts, including

the following:

• Strategy support, which includes all

types of contracts, for the forecast

horizon

• Surplus/shortfall optimization if

the quantum is to be absorbed

• Surplus / deficit in terms of MU

and MW with time slots.

• Seasonal power procurement

assessment.

• Revision of existing PPAs

• Cost benefit analysis by comparing

new PPAs/ existing PPAs / power

from markets

Demand Forecasting

• Multiple regression analysis

• Time series methods like ARIMA

• Artificial Neural Networks

• Adaptive methods.

Generation Resource Optimization focused on Minimized Cost using Stochastic modeling (using Monte-Carlo Simulation), MILP considering

• Thermal Constraints

• Hydro Constraints

• Renewable Constraints

• System Level constraints (demand & reserves)

Algorithms and Intricacies- For all three Modules

Key Benefits for Jharkhand


Long & Medium

term forecasting

Optimization

RE Maximization

Procurement Planning

Reskilling of Planners

• Internal generation mix

• Existing medium & long term

contracts

• Considering technical

and economic

optimization of

conventional generation

Considering the uncertainty

from renewables

01

05

04

03

02

Equip Utility with better techniques of

planning - Using Merit Order Dispatch &

MILP

Features

Long term and medium term forecasting

considering econometric variables and scenario

analysis to accommodate for policy changes

Better Discom Power Planning Uptake lead to higher RE uptake at reduced Power Procurement Cost

Project Milestones


Start

2 8

EndGap

Analysis

Beta

Software

Final

Software

Power

Procurement

Plan

Capacity

Planning

Scaling &

Outreach

9 12 13 14

Oct-19 April-20 July-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Dec-20

▪ Current

practices across

globe

▪ Requirements

from DISCOM

▪ Develop frame

work

▪ Functional,

Technical

requirement

document

▪ Development

of Beta

software

▪ Factory

Acceptance

Test

▪ Customizations

▪ Deployment of

Final SW

▪ Site Acceptance

Test

▪ Data collection

& Modeling

▪ Demand

Forecasting

▪ Generation

Mapping

▪ Power Plan

Development

▪ Training/Video

calls

▪ Reskilling of

Utility members

▪ Building

analytical skills

to maximize

utilization of

SW

▪ Development of

Strategy

▪ Support

Documents

▪ workshops/train

ing for other

DISCOMs in

India

Project Milestones


Start

1

Gap

Analysis

Oct-19

▪ Current

practices across

globe

▪ Requirements

from DISCOM

▪ Develop frame

work

Current Planning

Practices v/s Best

Practices

Data collection complete

Report presentation to Project committee by 1st Week

of October.

Demand

Forecasting

Module

Development

Data Collection Started

System Parameter requirements

Development of Algorithms

Development of Use Cases and Test Cases and Steering

committee approval

Development and Testing of Module

Deployment of Module

2

DF

Module

Power Purchase

Quantum*

(MUs)

Power Purchase

Cost*

(Rs Crore)

Average Cost of

Power*

(FY19-20)

13,448.22 5,524.90 Rs 4.11/kWh

Jharkhand: Energy Portfolio


RE Source Potential (MW)

Wind -

Solar 18,180

S-Hydro 228

Source: CSO ES Report 2018

Type State Private Central Total

Thermal 1,190 900 315 2,405

Hydro 130 0 71 201

RE 4 16 0 20

% RE

Addition

PPC with

ES

(Crores)

PPC

without ES

(Crores)

Savings

(Crores)

%

Savings

5 5518 5417 101 2%

10 5510 5309 202 4%

15 5503 5200 303 5%

20 5496 5092 403 7%

Source: Power for All for Jharkhand

Installed Capacity (MW)

*JBVNL

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Power Purchase vs. RE Addition

PPC with Grid Integration PPC without Grid Integration Savings (Crores)

RE @2.5 Rs/unit

22Resource Planning - States

Questions and Comments

Thank You!