party in the electorate. business analogy investors (activists, donors) fund, organize, shape...
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Party in the electorate
Business analogy
Investors(Activists, donors)
Fund, organize,Shape product to appeal to consumers
Product(Candidates and Policies)
Consumers(Party identifiers)
Consumers determine what products are most attractive
Today: the consumers.
Are party identifiers part of the party organization?
Freewrite
• What is your earliest political memory? What does that memory tell you about the way you developed your political identity?
Party identification
• A socialized, psychological attachment to a political party
• An information processing shortcut
• An information screen
Will the issue of global warming play an important or not important role in your decision to vote for a congressional
candidate in November, or will it not be a factor in your vote? (LA Times poll, Aug 2006, 1478 reg. voters)
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Importantfactor
Notimportant
factor
Not a factor Unsure
Democrats Republicans Independents
Which comes closest to your view? Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry. OR, Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions
but not legally marry. OR, There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship? (CBS poll, Oct 2006, 1086 adults)
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60
Legal marriage Civil unions No legalrecognition
Unsure
Republicans Democrats Independents
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling gas prices? (June 2006, CBS poll, 659 adults)
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90
Approve Disapprove Unsure
Republicans Democrats Independents
Party identification
• A socialized, psychological attachment to a political party
• An information processing shortcut
• An information screen
• A predictor of vote choice
Party ID as predictor of vote choice for president
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1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Strong Dems Strong Reps
Does a person’s party id change over time?
• Mostly not.• But sometimes. When?• In periods of political upheaval
– Period effects– Generation effects
• In responses to changes in life circumstances– Life cycle effects– Young more likely to change
Strong partisans
• More likely to vote, be informed, and participate
Did you read a newspaper about the 2004 presidential election?
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StrongDems
WeakDems
IndleanDem
PureInd
IndleanReep
WeakReps
StrongReps
Did you vote in the 2004 presidential election?
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100
StrongDems
WeakDems
IndleanDem
PureInd
IndleanReep
WeakReps
StrongReps
Strong partisans
• More likely to vote, be informed, and participate
Why?
• Better information processing
• Got somebody to root for
What do we know about independents?
Independents
• There are fewer of them than partisans
Partisanship
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45
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Democrats Republicans Independents
Independents
• There are fewer of them than partisans
• Many who say they are “independent” actually lean
• Leaners are fairly reliable party voters
• Some other “independents” are clueless
• Only about 10% of voters are true political independents
Of the Independents…
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1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Party leaners True independent No preference Don't know
Percent of party identifiers voting for their party’s presidential candidate (Dems)
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80
90
100
1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Strong Dems Weak Dems Ind lean Dem
Percent of party identifiers voting for their party’s presidential candidate (Reeps)
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100
1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Ind lean Rep Weak Reps Strong Reps
Independents
• There are fewer of them than partisans
• Many who say they are “independent” actually lean
• Leaners are fairly reliable party voters
• True attitudinal independents less likely to be informed, vote, participate
• Behavioral independents / split ticketers do determine election outcomes
Behavioral independents, Dems
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60
1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Strong Dems Weak Dems Ind lean Dem
Behavioral independents, Reps
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45
1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Strong Reps Weak Reps Ind lean Rep
Is party identification good for democracy?