London Metropolitan University

BA (Join) International Tourism and Travel Management

Analysis of the IATA’s Four Pillar Strategy: A closer

look at the ‘Improved Technology Pillar’

By Cristian Passarello

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Abstract ........................................................................................................................................ 3

Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... 3

Keywords ..................................................................................................................................... 3

1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 4

2 The Global greenhouse gases challenge and the aviation industry ........................................... 4

3 The IATA Four Pillar Strategy ................................................................................................. 6

4 Technology ............................................................................................................................... 8

4.1 Biofuels ............................................................................................................................ 10

5 Measurement of the targets ..................................................................................................... 12

6 Recommendations ................................................................................................................... 14

7 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 15

References .................................................................................................................................. 16

Bibliography .............................................................................................................................. 19

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide by Year ......................................................................... 5

Figure 2: Global Carbon Dioxide emissions per sector ............................................................... 5

Figure 3: IATA Four Pillar Strategy ............................................................................................ 6

Figure 4: Roadmap to achieve the high-level industry emissions goals ...................................... 7

Figure 5: Examples of improved technologies and their impacts ................................................ 8

Figure 6: Estimated fuel burn reduction potential of airframe and engine technologies ............. 9

Figure 7: Cumulative CO2 abatement potential until 2050 ......................................................... 9

Figure 8: Optimum land for growing sustainable aviation biofuels crops ................................. 10

Figure 9: Jet fuel and carbon prices comparison ....................................................................... 11

Figure 10: IEA BLUE Map scenario for biofuels ...................................................................... 11

Figure 11: Emission of aviation CO2 in 2050 according to MODTF/FESG (2009); low, central and high traffic growth scenarios and technological/operational mitigation scenarios S2 (business as usual) through to S5 (advanced improvements) ............................................ 13

Figure 12: Average annual growth rate of revenue tonne-kilometres ....................................... 13

Figure 13: UK aviation emissions to 2050 – CCC Likely scenario ........................................... 13

Figure 14: Values of radiative forcing and temperature response for the long-term illustrative simulations of constant emissions from 2020 to 2500, and cessation of emissions in 2020............................................................................................................................................ 14

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ABSTRACT This report investigates the IATA’s Four Pillar Strategy adopted in 2007 by the aviation

industry in order to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. Although the strategy is based on four

main different groups, this paper mainly investigates the improved technology, of which

biofuel’s development is part. From the analysis of this study, it is clear that in order to

properly mitigate aviation emissions, intense measurements such as a global Emissions

Trading Scheme should be soon adopted. However, this research highlights that in order for

the aviation industry to achieve the ‘carbon-neutral growth by 2020’ target, its growth should

be limited regardless of the possible economic consequences.

ABBREVIATIONS CNG: Carbon-neutral growth

CO2: Carbon dioxide

ETS: Emissions Trading Scheme

GHG: Greenhouse gases

IATA: International Air Transport Association

ICAO: International Civil Aviation Organization

IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

R&D: Research and development

KEYWORDS Aviation; Climate Change; IATA; Four-pillar Strategy; Improved Technology, EU, ETS, CO2

emission.

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1 INTRODUCTION With the aim to reduce aviation emissions, in 2007 IATA adopted a four-pillar approach. As a

result, the purpose of this research is to analyse the IATA’s Four Pillar Strategy taking into

account what has been achieved and the future projects by primarily concentrating on the first

pillar of the strategy: The Improved technology. Thus, this study will investigate the

technological improvements giving particular relevance to the development of biofuels by

evaluating progress and barriers. Finally, it will analyse the measurement of the targets and

will provide recommendations on how to achieve the strategy goals.

2 THE GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GASES CHALLENGE AND THE AVIATION INDUSTRY Nowadays the importance of being environmentally responsible cannot longer be ignored by

our society. Indeed, one of the major threats to humanity and natural systems appears to be

Climate Change (Goldenberg, 2014), which, although it has long been debated whether or not

there was a link between greenhouse gas emissions and CC, according to the last United

Nations IPCC Assessment Report (2013), it is extremely likely that humans are responsible for

the most recent climate change.

Sure enough, carbon dioxide, one of the main contributors to global warming, has increased

from 280 parts per million (ppm) before the Industrial Revolution (see figure 1) to more than

390 ppm in 2011 (OECD, 2012). In response to climate change, the European Union launched

in 2005 the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), which was extended to the

aviation industry in January 2012, with the intention to charge airlines entering the EU for their

CO2 emissions. However, this scheme has strongly been criticised by many airlines around the

world, which resulted in its temporary suspension for non-EU arriving and departing flights in

order to give more time to the ICAO to discuss a global plan as it was considered more

appropriate (Lee et al., 2013, p.7a). Conversely, the ETS will be imposed to all the European

airlines at least until 2017 (Godfrey, 2014).

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Figure 1: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide by Year (Source: Burn an energy Journal, 2012).

Carrying more than 2.2 billion people annually, the aviation industry is currently one of the

fastest growing industries in the world (UNFCCC Climate Talks, 2010) and it is predicted to

continue to grow by approximately 5 per cent per year as noted by Knorzer and Szodruch

(2012). Although the aviation sector has made significant improvements over the past 40 years,

such as 70 per cent fuel efficiency improvement (IATA, 2009) and 75 per cent noise reduction

(Watson, 2011, p.5), it is still responsible for 628 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, equivalent

to 2 per cent of the global man-made CO2 (UNFCCC Climate Talks, 2010), which unarguably

contribute to climate change. As a result, in 2007 the International Air Transport Association

(IATA) established an approach known as the IATA Four Pillar Strategy with the aim to

reduce aviation emissions on a global scale (IATA, 2009).

Figure 2: Global Carbon Dioxide emissions per sector (Source: ATAG, 2011).

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3 THE IATA FOUR PILLAR STRATEGY The International Air Transport Association is a global trade association, which represents the

world’s airlines and provides analysis and policies regarding the aviation industry (Becken and

Hay, 2012; IATA, 2014). As previously mentioned, in order to mitigate aeronautical green

gases emission, in 2007 the IATA set out the four-pillar strategy based on the following four

main pillars:

1. Technology

2. Operations

3. Infrastructure

4. Economic measures

Figure 3: IATA Four Pillar Strategy (Source: Cathay Pacific, 2011).

The strategy was also adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization member states

(IATA, 2009). As a result, in 2009 the aviation industry settled the following three high-level

goals:

a) Carbon-neutral growth from 2020.

b) An annual average of 1.5 per cent improvement in fuel efficiency from 2009 to 2020.

c) 50 per cent reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 relative to 2005 levels.

In order for the industry to achieve those goals and therefore, being carbon-neutral despite the

growing demand for air transport, strong commitment from all the aviation stakeholders is

needed as noted by Knorzer and Szodruch (2012).

Furthermore, airlines are also motivated by the increased of fuel prices over the last years,

which increased by more than 260 per cent since 2001 (MASBI, 2013). Indeed, over the past

years the aviation industry has seen an average of 1 to 2 per cent improvement in efficiency

(Macintosh and Wallace, 2009, p.264-273).

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In 2008, the aviation industry produced 666 million tonnes of CO2, approximately 0.75 per

cent less compared to the previously year which has been associated to the adoption of the

IATA four pillar strategy but also to the economic downturn happened that year (IATA, 2009;

European Environmental Agency, 2013). However, most recent studies reported that the

aviation industry produced 670 million tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2011, showing a further

increase in emissions (IATA Document, 2013). Yet, 12 million tonnes of CO2 have been saved

by the aviation industry in 2012 due to increased load factors, better aircraft performance and

improved ‘in-air’ operations (IATA, 2013). Despite this improvement, according to

Kranslawski and Turunen (2013) in 2020 aviation emissions will be 700 per cent higher than in

2005 due to the growing industry factor.

Figure 4: Roadmap to achieve the high-level industry emissions goals (Source: Knorzer and Szodruch, 2012).

In order to decrease aviation emissions, all the four points of the strategy are essentials.

Although the technology pillar, which also includes the R&D of aviation biofuels, is by far the

most promising for reducing GHG emissions (see figures 5 and 6) – predominantly in the long-

term (UNFCCC Climate Talks, 2012), new researches show that a single global market-based-

measure (MBMs), which is part of the fourth pillar (ICAO, 2013), would be the fastest to

implement and manage and the most cost-efficient. Furthermore, it would generate the largest

emissions reduction, particularly in the short-term (IATA, 2013; Lee et al., 2013, p.13a).

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Figure 5: Examples of improved technologies and their impacts (Source: IATA, 2009).

4 TECHNOLOGY Despite being seen as the most expensive solution, technological development is considered

the most efficient of the four pillars. New advances in technology such as: new aircraft

designs, the utilisation of lighter materials and major changes in engine principles are currently

underway and are predicted that will reduce emissions of 20 to 35 per cent per airplane (IATA,

2009). Furthermore, sustainable jet fuels, which could cut down carbon dioxide emissions by

80 per cent, are being studied with promising results (UNFCCC Climate Talks, 2012).

According to Schade (2013, p.50-51), the R&D of new technologies requires significant

economic investments and therefore is not seen as a short-term solution but rather the solution

for the future. Furthermore, it has been claimed that high-emission airplanes could be retired

from the service, substituted with newer and more fuel-efficient aircraft such as the Boeing 787

Dreamliner and the Airbus A350. However, aircraft have long service-life cycle hence they can

only be replaced gradually. Additionally, huge economic investments in new technologies

require long time to be amortised by the aviation industry.

As a result, airlines may instead cope with the extra taxes from the European Union ETS.

Arguably, it can be assumed that profound technological innovations within the aviation

industry represent a long-term solution and must be combined with feasible improvements to

the aircraft currently in service in order to achieve carbon-neutral growth. Those advances

include the installation of winglets to improve aerodynamic efficiency and fuel consumption

(Enviro, 2014; OECD, 2012).

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With the aim to assist airlines with the R&D of new advanced technologies, in 2009 IATA

created the Technology Roadmap for Environmentally Sustainable Aviation (TERESA) - an

initiative that “provides an overview of green technologies and their impacts on aircraft level”

as pointed out by Curran (2012, p.514). Furthermore, in 2012 the technological pillar achieved

a good progress toward the full Aircraft CO2 Emissions Standard with the establishment of the

ICAO CO2 metric system for all the new aircraft (ICAO, 2012).

Figure 6: Estimated fuel burn reduction potential of airframe and engine technologies (Source: Knorzer and Szodruch, 2011).

Figure 7: Cumulative CO2 abatement potential until 2050 (Source: OECD, 2012).

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4.1 BIOFUELS Commercial aviation mainly uses fuel refined from kerosene, which has a ratio of 3:1 – this

means that for each kilogram of kerosene used by an aircraft, approximately 3 kilograms of

carbon emissions are realised into the air (OECD, 2012).

As part of technology innovation, the development of biofuels derived from renewable

biological carbon material is currently underway (IATA, 2009). Although biofuels are mainly

divided into four groups first, second, third and fourth generations biofuels, the aviation

industry is mainly focused on the second and third generations of biofuels as the first-

generation biofuels rose concerns regarding the increasing of food prices and uncertainties on

GHG emissions saving improvement of the first generation, as provided by Barnabè et al.

(2013, p.5). Additionally, first generation biofuels have also shown issues relative to their

performance and safety for jet fuel (ATAG, 2011).

Some promising biofuels of second generation are those produced by Camelina, algae, jatropha

and holophytes as most of them can be grown in critical on-shore and off-shore zones as

pointed out by Vorster et al. (2012). Indeed, second-generation biofuels result in a reduction in

CO2 emission through their life-cycle and can also bring social and economic benefits for both

the aviation sector and developing nations (see figure 9) as they could start growing those

biofuel crops (ATAG, 2011).

Figure 8: Optimum land for growing sustainable aviation biofuels crops (Source: ATAG, 2011).

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Figure 9: Jet fuel and carbon prices comparison (Source: ATAG, 2012).

The production of second and third generation biofuels is still too expensive and does not cost-

compete with the production of kerosene yet (see figure10). As a result, the aviation biofuels

sector should seek to significantly reduce the biofuels production’s costs in order for the

aviation industry to meet the IATA targets of switching to biojet fuels in the near future

(OECD, 2012). On the other hand, fossil fuels are progressively becoming insufficient and

consequently they will become more expensive while biofuels cost will drop as a result of new

technologies being developed – it is predicted that oil prices will keep going up while the cost

of biojet fuels will continue to fall (ATAG, 2012).

Figure 10: IEA BLUE Map scenario for biofuels (Source: OECD, 2012).

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Finally, the contribution of biofuels to the aviation sector has also been evaluated by the UK

Committee on Climate Change - biofuels in 2050 could contribute to 10 per cent in a ‘likely

scenario’, 20 per cent for an ‘optimistic scenario’ and 30 per cent for ‘speculative scenario’.

However, due to 50 per cent life cycle CO2 saving, the percentages should be divided by a

factor of two (Lee et al., 2013, p.6b).

5 MEASUREMENT OF THE TARGETS Although the measurement of carbon dioxide emissions can be calculated from the amount of

fuel consumed by an aircraft, there are still many factors such as route, cruise altitude, weather

conditions, load and distance travelled that play an important role. As a result, a metric

mechanism capable of transforming “emissions of gases with different effects on climate into

one common scale” has been developed with great results (Jardine, 2005, p.2-5).

In 1983, ICAO founded the ICAO’s Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP)

with the scope to research and develop strategies to reduce the negative effects of the aviation

industry on the environment (ICAO, 2013). The ICAO’s CAEP projected three possible

growth scenarios (Most Likely, High and Low) over the next 30 years with their relative

emissions based on aircraft replacement, technology development and other important factors.

Furthermore, an information paper by ICAO (2009) reported the following six different

scenarios of emissions mitigation, some of which were considered in the ICAO’s CAEP

scenarios:

• Scenario 1 (Do Nothing): It assumes that no improvements within the aviation sector

will be made.

• Scenario 2 (CAEP/7 Baseline): It only included the minimum CNS/ATM

improvements needed to maintain current ATM efficiency levels.

• Scenario 3 (Low Aircraft Technology and Moderate Operational Improvement):

include scenario two improvements plus fuel-burn improvements and moderate

operational improvements.

• Scenario 4 (Moderate Aircraft Technology and Operational Improvement): Same as

scenario three but with higher fuel-burn and operational progresses.

• Scenario 5 (Advanced Technology and Operational Improvement): Same as scenario

four but with even higher fuel-burn and operational improvements.

• Scenario 6: Optimistic Technology and Operational Improvement.

Consequently, emissions reductions mitigated from technology (biofuels not included) and

operational improvements alone have been calculated and can be seen in the figure below (Lee

et al., 2013, p.6b).

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Figure 11: Emission of aviation CO2 in 2050 according to MODTF/FESG (2009); low, central and high traffic growth scenarios and technological/operational mitigation scenarios S2 (business as usual) through to S5 (advanced improvements) (Source: Lee et al., 2013b).

Figure 12: Average annual growth rate of revenue tonne-kilometres (Source: ICAO, 2013).

Figure 13: UK aviation emissions to 2050 – CCC Likely scenario (Source: ICAO, 2010).

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Finally, it is considered really difficult if not idealistic, for the aviation industry to achieve the

target of CNG by 2020 without limit the whole sector growth. This is due to many different

factors such as the diverse maturity and growth stages of the aviation industry in different

countries (ICAO Working Paper, 2010) and the long lifetime of carbon dioxide – indeed, when

emitting CO2, 30 per cent of it is removed within a few decades, another 50 per cent over few

centuries and the rest 20 per cent over 1000 years after the emission has stopped due to the

radiative forcing (Lee et al., 2013, p.17b); it should be noted that the stabilisation of CO2

emissions at 2020 levels would not stabilise the impact of climate.

Figure 14: Values of radiative forcing and temperature response for the long-term illustrative simulations of constant emissions from 2020 to 2500, and cessation of emissions in 2020 (Source: Lee et al., 2013b).

6 RECOMMENDATIONS Achieving the carbon neutral growth by 2020 target is almost impossible without a radical

change in the whole aviation sector but also on the political and economic level. It has been

predicted that the EU ETS will reduce the 2050 radiative forcing by almost 20 per cent.

Indeed, in the late 2013 ICAO finally proposed a scheme for the development of a global

market-based measure, which will be concluded in 2016 and implemented by 2020 (Hartley,

2013) – It will be as effective as the EU ETS in reducing aviation emissions. Additionally, the

aviation industry could start focusing on increase aircraft passengers’ capacity and limit the

unnecessary luxury benefits, especially on short haul flights. Also, governments should

incentive the R&D of biofuels by ease their production and at the same time by taxing

kerosene.

Moreover, one of the main problems of the aviation industry but which however could be

applied to the global economic sector is the profound idea of ‘must growth’. Indeed,

suggesting to the aviation industry to limit its growth could be seen as unwise as noted by

Cafaro (2012, p.103) however, since we live in a planet with finite resources, we should

understand and accept that an infinite economic growth is simply utopian as pointed out by

Jackson (2009, p.14). Likewise, the US Department of Energy (2009) stated: “economic

growth is the most significant factor underlying the projections for growth in energy-related

carbon dioxide emissions in the mid-term, as the world continues to rely on fossil fuels for

most of its energy use”.

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7 CONCLUSION We are in the middle of a critical situation due to the rising levels of GHG, which contribute to

climate change. The aviation industry is directly responsible for about 2 per cent of those gases

and as a result the IATA established the Four Pillar Strategy with the purpose to mitigate the

aviation’s emissions on a global level and to achieve carbon-neutral growth from 2020. The

strategy itself can be seen as a valid strategy, though this research showed that due to the

increasing growth of the aviation sector and the absence of a global market-based measure

(MBMs) currently in force, it is extremely unlikely that the aviation industry will achieve its

targets by 2020.

Furthermore, although stopping CO2 emissions will not result in the stabilization of climate

change, the industry together with governments should work hard in order to ease the R&D of

new biofuels and new technologies and to implement a global MBMs. In conclusion, the

success of the strategy largely depends on the support given by the main governments,

organisations and financial investments provided.

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