past, present, and future of marine environmental...

Guimei LIUNatinal Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,

Beijing, China

Halifax, Canada

May 2019

Past, present, and future

of marine environmental

forecasting services in China

Outline

3 Future(2019-): innovation

2 Present(2013-2019):development

1 Past(1965-2013): history

• Past: 1965-2013

⚫ 1965: established as the Marine Hydro-meteorological Forecasting General Observatory

⚫ 1966: marine weather and wave forecast(China seas)⚫ 1969: sea ice forecast(Bohai Sea)⚫ 1970: tropical cyclone storm surge forecast⚫ 1972: extra-tropical storm surge forecast⚫ 1975: sea temperature forecast (East China Sea)⚫ 1983: renamed as the National Marine Environmental

Forecasting Center⚫ 1986: release forecasts to public by radio and TV⚫ 1996: El Niño forecast

Past: 1965-2013 First group photo Release forecast by fax

Marine

environmental

forecast for

global coastal

cities

LoMF,

Established Key

Laboratory of

Research on

Marine Hazards

Forecasting

1966年

Released sea wind,

wave forecast

covering China seas

1970年 1974年 1977年 1980年

Released sea ice forecast

covering Bohai Sea and

north of Yellow Sea

Released storm surge

forecast in south of

China

Released SST forecast

in China seas

Marine forecast

for special

services

1984年 1985年 1986年 1996年 2001年

Polar Route

Forecast

Released forecast

products on

CCTV and radio

El Nino

prediction

Red tides

warning and

forecast

Public forecast

by NMEFC

Marine

Environmental

Forecasts of

Coastal Tourist

Resorts

2002年 2005年 2006年 2008年

Released forecast

products of

swimming beach

environmental

conditions

Tsunami warning

and forecastMarine

environmental

forecast in the

Gulf of Aden

& Green Tide

CGOFS v1.0

2013年

Sea Wind &

WaveSea Ice Storm Surge Sea Temperature

Polar Route

2010年 2012年

Marine environmental forecasting history in China

1989年

Numerical

forecasting

system for SST

Numerical

forecast for SSTEl Nino Red Tide

Green Tide

Numerical forecast for

wave, storm surge, wind

Numerical forecast for

temperature-salinity-

currents and wave

Tsunami CGOFS v1.0Global，regional，coastal numerical

forecast systems

86-90：To develop numerical forecast for SST

of Z-coordinate system in China seas and

the northwestern PAC; To develop

numerical forecast for wave.

91-95：To develop forecast system from fix to variable depth of mixed

layer; To introduce objective correction (data assimilation) to forecast

system; Numerical forecast for storm surge

01-05：3D temperature-salinity-current forecast system of Bohai Sea, East

China Sea, China Sea and Northwestern PAC; wave forecast system

(WAM/SWAN)of China seas and Northwestern PAC

06-10：POM for China Seas, HYCOM for northern PAC, MOM4

for global ocean; numerical forecast products

temperature, salinity, current, wave and other elements

11-15：Chinese Global operational Oceanography Forecasting System (CGOFS v1.0)

FVCOM

Empirical Forecast

WAM

4

SWAN

WW3

Autocontrol

Objective

correction

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

POM

HYCO

M

ROMS

Marine environmental forecasting history in China

1900s … … 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

GODAE 1997-2008

GOV 2009-

Argo 1998- Real-time observation

Objective correction (data assimilation) was applied to forecast

From 1970s，computer and marine numerical simulation began to develop

Observational data is more and more

From GEOS-3 in 1975，application of remote sensing data was more widely

WOCE 1990-2002

TOGA 1985-1994

TAO/TRION (1984) Real-time observation network

Initiation of Operational Oceanography

Adjustment and demonstration of

Operational Oceanography

Continuous improvements of Operational

Oceanography

Development of OperationalOceanography

Initiation of Modern

Oceanography

Operational

Oceanography History

MOM4, HYCOM, ROMS, POM and FVCOM

Bohai Sea

LYG PortChina Seas

North Pacific

Northwest Pacific

Numerical Forecasting Models

Outline




1. Establish Chinese Global operational Oceanography Forecasting System and the extended forecasting system

2. Data assimilation technology

3. Application of GPU based parallel detection technology

4. Quality of products and applications• collaboration

• development

• service

In recent 5 years : development of the forecasting systems

Chinese Global operational Oceanography Forecasting System

(CGOFS v1.0) and extended forecast system

Global Oceanography Forecasts:

Level 1: Global Ocean

Level 2:

Northwest Pacific and

Indian Ocean

Level 3:

Bo-Yellow-East China Sea and South

China Sea

Level 4: Polar Region

Refined forecasts:

China Coastal Zone

Ecological Forecasts:

Level 1: Northwest Pacific

Level 2: East and South China sea

Climate Prediction:

Level 1: Global

Level 2: Asia & Northwest Pacific

Chinese Global operational Oceanography Forecasting System and the extended forecasting system

GlobalIndian Ocean

North-western Pacific

SouthChinaSea

East China Sea

Bohai Sea

OGCM NEMO ROMSv3.5 ROMSv3.5 ROMSv3.5 ROMSv3.5 ROMSv3.5

Horizontal Res. 1/12° 1/12° 1/20° 1/30° 1/30° 1/60°

Vertical Res. 75L 20L 22L 30L 30L 36L

Surface Forcing GFS/CGOGS-wind/NMEFC-WRF

Tidal boundary None OTIS East China Sea

Assimilation scheme PDAF QcorretionEnOI

QcorretionEnOI

QcorretionEnOI

QcorretionQcorretion

Data assimilatedRTGSST，SSH，

Argo T/SMGDSST

MGDSST,SSH, Argo T/S

MGDSST,SSH

MGDSST, SSH MGDSST

Product Temperature, salinity, current (surface, 20m, 50m, 100m, 200m, 500m, 1000m, profiles)

Forecast range 120hr

RMSE of SLA RMSE & Bias of SST

Temp. profiles

Sali. profiles

regions

Oct.-Nov. 2018

National Model System SST SLA(m) T-profile S-profile

UK NEMO 1/4 FOAM 0.3066 0.0783 0.5535 0.1383

AustraliaMOM4 10kmoffshore

BLK omap 0.4445 0.0786 0.6800 0.1610

Canada NEMO 1/4 GIOPS 0.4404 0.0757 0.6150 0.1775

USA HYCOM 1/12 RTOFS 0.5608 NaN 0.6345 0.1440

France NEMO 1/4 PSY3 0.5328 0.0866 0.6287 0.1477

France NEMO 1/12 PSY4 NaN 0.0702 NaN NaN

China NEMO 1/12 NMEFC-NEMO 0.2941 0.0670 0.7115 0.1726

IVTT class4SST

1. Global High resolution Forecasting products

Temp

Salinity

Current

1. Global High resolution Forecasting products

EnOI for SLA

Observation data for assimilation: SLA

(Jason-2, Cryosat, SARAL and HY2)

Assimilation cycle: 7 days (at 00:00)

Parameter value: alpha=0.3

localization radius: R=250km

Before DA

After DA

SLA Bias

BDA (cm) ADA (cm)

ME 8.4 6.3

AE 10.1 7.1

RMSE 12.6 8.7

Validation 2016/9/24

2.Data assimilation technology

3DVAR for SST and T/S Argo data

T: RMSE improves 50% at the level of ~10m

S: RMSE decreased by ~0.040 for the upper 1000 m

2.Data assimilation technology

0.988

0.620

0.098

0.071

37.21%

27.98%

SST: model vs. MGDSST

The RMS of AF temperature is ~0.83 oC in 2006, which is improved by

~ 23.2% with compared to ~1.08 oC of SF.

The RMS of AF salinity performs better than the RMS of SF, with

~0.112 of AF compared to ~0.138 of SF.

⚫ GPU, 86s response to forecast period of 72hr

⚫ Coastal cities of China and the Southeast Asia

⚫ Observational data and forecast products for

the public

3. Application of GPU based parallel detection technology

• 2017 Fastest response:6min，average response:11min

• 2018 Fastest response:3min，average response:9.8min

IOC/UNESCO SCSTAC

2 区

1 区

3 区

High resolution storm surge numerical forecasting system

1 2

3 4

Marine hazard & disaster forecast

Response to global climate change

Marine fishery and aquafarm Coastal natural resources

0

2

4

6

8

10

Aug., 1959Aug., 1981Aug., 1988Aug., 1998Aug., 1999Aug., 2002Jun., 2003Aug. 2003Sep., 2003Aug., 2005Aug., 2006Aug., 2011

0

5

10

15

20

201108200308

?

15.4

2.6

5<5

0.5

10.9

0.60.55?

1.9

200608200508

200309200306200208

199908199808

198808198108

Are

a o

f h

yp

ox

ia z

on

e (

×10

3 k

m2)

(DO

<2

mg

/L)

Time

area

195908

DO min.

DO

min

imu

m (m

g L

)-1

4. Products & Applications

Sanchi

Daily forecast trajectory error

0

5

10

15

20

25

26

74

83

11

7

15

5

Drifting time/h

dis

tan

ce e

rro

r/k

m

Observed trajectory

Trajectory forecasting service for tanker Sanchi

Range prediction error in 24h

• The tanker carrying 136,000 metric tons of light crude

oil has been adrift and on fire following a collision

with another vessel in the East China Sea

(124°56′42″E 、 30°42′42″N) on Jan 6, 2018.

Tanker sinked on Jan 14 and caused oil leakage.

• NMEFC activated emergency forecast for drifting

trajectory of victims and the tanker on Jan 7. The

model was upgraded based on semi-analytic method,

and proved to be with better generality than previous

models.

• After comparison with observed trajectory, the model-

predicted result showed acceptable accuracy.

Behavior and fate scenario simulation of

submarine oil spill in shipwreck

North-western Pacific operational forecasting system

(1/20°）

✓ The emergency forecast of the future 48-hour of the oil distribution was

performed and published on daily basis from 14 January to 2 February.

✓ A long term fate and behavior for condensate and bunker oil during January and

February was performed by coupling SINTEF OSCAR oil spill model, satellite

observations, with operational wind and current forecasts of NMEFC.

✓ The leakage from the submerged tanker was also investigated.

✓ A validation study was carried out for the wind, current, oil distribution and

shoreline hits.

The forecasting conclusions have successfully supported the decision

making for the response of the Sanchi oil spill.

Weathering process comparison between fuel oil

and condensate oilPrediction of Fuel oil drift and diffusion for 30 days

Oil spill forecasting service for tanker Sanchi — drift,

diffusion and weathering

Intelligent grid forecasting

Global ocean 25km——Coastal sea 10km

(including wave, temperature, sea surface wind)

Green ≥ 0.9

0.9 > Yellow ≥ 0.85

0.85 > Orange ≥ 0.8

Red < 0.8

24h 48h 72h

Development of marine forecast

Observation

channelfoundation

trench

Forecasting

weather wave current

before one month

select time window

before 5 days

decide time window

before 1 day

confirm time window

operation

In-situ support

Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge Construction

NMEFC has been providing timely and accurate forecasting service to the bridge construction for

over 6 years, and solved multiple technical challenges including the critical requirements of time-

window, accuracy, and emergency response

Region:

North of SCS

inner wave, wind, surface

wave, currents, temperature

and density

Task：

Feb to Jul, 2017

First mining by Marine

Engineering Limited

Company of CNPC

Requirements：

Safty of “No.1 Blue

Whale”Semi Submersible

Platform

Safety of conveying pipe

NMEFC provided forecast products and in-situ support for the safety of the mining operation

South China Sea Natural Gas Hydrate Test mining

In recent 10 years: development of super-computing ability

Serial computing

Parallelcomputing

OpenMP

MPI

CPU GPU

APP and automation

platform

TODAY HEADLINES NETEASY NEWS EXPRESS NEWS

TENCENT NEWS Yidian zixun

WeChat

APP Weibo

Release of forecasting products

Outline




Forecasting coverage advances from major ports and observation stations to

important maritime routes, deep seas and global waters. A combination strategy of

points, lines and interfaces would expand the coverage of environmental forecasting.

• Broadening of protecting scope

• Expansion of forecasting coverage

Exploring and Developing

Major sea ports

Important maritime

routeDeep seas

Global

Region

Physical Oceanography

Ecological Oceanography

Environmental Oceanography

Military Oceanography

F-60 F-59 F-2F-58 F-1 O-60 O-59 O-2O-58 O-1

History Forecasting Data

Correlation Downscaling

History Observational Data

深度学习方法

Focus region

Neural Networks

Deep learning

New Challenge

Super-data Super-computing Intelligent forecast

⚫ To develop a new large-scale super-computing platform with multi-disciplinary integration of ocean,

atmosphere and earth.

⚫ To apply advanced technology such as supper data analysis, scientific engineering computing and

artificial intelligence.

New Challenge

Thank you for your listening！

past, present, and future of marine environmental...

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