Past, Present, and FutureThe Amazing, Changing

LAUSD EnrollmentPresentation to

The Budget, Facilities, and Audit CommitteeBy Facilities Division, Master Planning and Demographics

December 11, 2014

Agenda Item #3

More Than Just Numbers Enrollment history Dynamics of enrollment change Projecting enrollment Enrollment forecasts Areas of growth – 5 year change Assessment of enrollment impacted schools Determining need for added capacity Looking forward

December 11, 2014

K-12 ENROLLMENT1961-62 TO 2013-14

Post WWII housing and baby boom > growth to 1968

Growth in outer suburbs, Sylmar Earthquake, and concerns over forced desegregation > decline from 1968 to 1980

Baby boom echo and post Prop 13 new housing > growth 1980 to 2002 Immigration reform > plateau 1986

and 1987 Civil unrest and Northridge

Earthquake > plateau 1992 thru 1994 Decline in births began 1990, K

enrollment peaked in 19960

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

2009

2013

December 11, 2014

PRIVATE SCHOOL ENROLLMENT1981-82 TO 2013-14

60,00065,00070,00075,00080,00085,00090,00095,000

100,000105,000110,000115,000120,000

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

2009

2013

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%

10%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%19%20%

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

2009

2013

Increases/decreases similar to LAUSD’s Declining market share within LAUSD

Source: California Department of Education, private school affidavits

529 schools in 2003; 439 schools in 2013

December 11, 2014

DYNAMICS OF CHANGE Incoming group

Births in general population Kindergarten in enrollment

Outgoing group Deaths in general population 12th grade/graduates in enrollment

Incoming minus Outgoing = Natural Increase

Fluctuation in core group = Net Change Difference of in/out migration in general population Grade to grade retention in enrollment

Natural Increase + Net Change = Overall Change

December 11, 2014

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS: ANALYSIS AND ASSUMPTIONS

Births in LAUSD and LA County Used to develop forecasts for Kindergarten and 1st Grade

enrollment Cohort Survival Rates

Statistics showing the percentage of students who progress from one grade to another within LAUSD

Factors considered in projection modeling Migration and immigration New housing development Ethnic shifts Health of the economy

December 11, 2014

BIRTHS IN LA COUNTY

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

225,00019

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

1820

1920

2020

2120

22

Sources: Actual births thru 2012, CA Dept. of Health Services, Ctr. for Health Statistics. Projected births: CA Dept of Finance, Demographic Research Unit.

December 11, 2014

Overall Enrollment Change

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000550,000600,000

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

December 11, 2014

Enrollment Change by Grade

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000550,000600,000

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

December 11, 2014

Enrollment Change

K12345678

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,00019

7219

7319

7419

7519

7619

7719

7819

7919

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

13

K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

December 11, 2014

COHORT SURVIVAL RATES1 YEAR CHANGE

GRADES 1-11 TO 2-12 Cohort Survival – the

rate at which a defined group continues over time

Graph shows a global rate for students that continued from one year to the next

Ups and downs of rate mirror changes seen in enrollment graph

70%72%74%76%78%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%

100%

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

December 11, 2014

COHORT SURVIVAL RATES1 YEAR CHANGE

GRADES 8-11 TO 9-12 Graph shows the rate at

which 8th to 11th grade students continued in the following year as 9th

to 12th grade students Changes in this rate are

a reflection of changes in drop-out and migration trends

70%72%74%76%78%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%

100%

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

December 11, 2014

COHORT SURVIVAL RATES4 YEAR CHANGE

GRADES 5-8 TO 9-12 Graph shows the rate at

which 5th to 8th grade students continued to be enrollment as 9th to 12th

grade students 4 years later

Changes in this rate are a reflection of changes in drop-out rate, population motility, and timely fulfillment of grade level credits

70%72%74%76%78%80%82%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%

100%

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

December 11, 2014

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Low, High, Selected -based on different assumptions applied to each grade’s cohort rate

Selected projection -likely outcome within a Low to High range

Declining enrollment trend reversal expected Low - 2024 High – 2016 Selected - 2018

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

2009

2013

2017

2021

2025

LOW HIGH SELECTED

December 11, 2014

ACCURACY OF SHORT TERM K-12 PROJECTIONS

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

1997to

1998

1998to

1999

1999to

2000

2000to

2001

2001to

2002

2002to

2003

2003to

2004

2004to

2005

2005to

2006

2006to

2007

2007to

2008

2008to

2009

2009to

2010

2010to

2011

2011to

2012

2012to

2013

December 11, 2014

INVOLUNTARY BUSSING AND MULTI-TRACK

Schools withInvoluntary Bussing

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

Schools withMulti-track Calendar

0

50

100

150

200

250

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

December 11, 2014

AREAS OF GROWTH 2008-2013

Growth in Percentage

40%

-40%

December 11, 2014

EVALUATION OF ENROLLMENT IMPACTED SCHOOLS

Primary goal – accommodate resident students and avoid bussing

Assess cause for growth – resident vs non-resident Appraise classroom utilization and identify

reasonable adjustments Control/reduce non-resident enrollment if possible Analyze resident enrollment trends Review options for boundary changes with adjacent

school(s)

December 11, 2014

Resident AreaEnrollmentProjections

EstimatedSchool

Capacity

PROCESS FOR DETERMININGSEATS NEEDED

Seats Neededor Available

December 11, 2014

SCHOOL CAPACITY CALCULATION ASSUMPTIONS

Inventory of existing classrooms based on data validated during Capacity Assessment Roadshow

Allocation of classrooms for Special Education programs and ‘set-aside’ use based on Board approved guidelines1

Single track calendar and classroom loading as applicable based on Norm category and operational model

School configurations remain as current

1 – Policy Research and Development Communication No. 1 to the Board of Education on November 17, 1997 GOALS AND GUIDELINES TODEVELOP A FACILITIES MASTER PLAN FOR SCHOOL CONSTRUCTION

EstimatedSchool

Capacity

December 11, 2014

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS ANALYSIS AND ASSUMPTIONS

Current and historic total resident area enrollments2 by grade are compiled for each school based on the geographic area served by that school based on GIS mapping of students

A profile of the prior level enrollment by grade for each middle school and high school is compiled

For elementary schools, Kindergarten enrollment is compared births that occurred 5 years earlier to identify a likely trend for Kindergarten future enrollment

Cohort survival modeling used to develop individual school projections 5 years into the future for elementary schools, 6 years for middle schools, and 9 years for high schools

2 – All students enrolled in LAUSD schools, including CAP, PWT, and magnet, are accounted for in their assigned neighborhood school.School age children that attend private schools and most independent charters are not included in these numbers.

Resident AreaEnrollmentProjections

December 11, 2014

EstimatedSchool

Capacity

IMPACT OF POLICIES

Alternative classroom loading will increase or decrease the estimated capacity of a school

Modification of teacher traveling requirement in the utilization of classrooms will change the capacity of a school

Implementation of standard protocol for utilization of schools facilities may change capacity

Resident AreaEnrollmentProjections

Students attending another school by choice (i.e. Open Enrollment, Permit, PWT, charter) can be considered to be appropriately accommodated

Students involuntarily attending another school (i.e. CAP, Satellite Zone) are included in assessment of need at their neighborhood school.

Projected resident area enrollment 5 to 9 years from baseline enrollment

December 11, 2014

Looking ForwardSustainment of promise of single-

track, neighborhood schools Modernization planning will include

assessment of schools’ abilities to meet enrollment demands

December 11, 2014

QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION

December 11, 2014