pastor attrition study 2021 compared to 2015

Pastor Attrition Study2021 compared to 2015

A SURVEY OF 1,576 EVANGELICAL AND BLACK PROTESTANT PASTORS

2

● The study was sponsored by Houston’s First Baptist Church and

Richard Dockins, MD

● The mixed mode survey of 1,576 Evangelical and Black Protestant

pastors was conducted August 17–September 15, 2021, using both

phone and online interviews

● Phone: The calling list was a random sample, stratified by church

membership, drawn from a list of all churches in all Evangelical and

Black Protestant religious traditions except Southern Baptists

● Online: The email list was a random sample drawn from all Southern

Baptist congregations with an email address. Invitations were emailed

to the pastor by Lifeway Research followed by one reminder

● Each survey was completed by the senior pastor, minister or priest at

the church contacted

Methodology

3

● The completed sample is 1,576 surveys (1,000 phone 576 online)

● Responses were weighted by region, church size, and denominational

group to more accurately reflect the population

● The sample provides 95% confidence that the sampling error does not

exceed +2.7% This margin of error accounts for the effect of weighting

● Margins of error are higher in sub-groups

● Comparisons are made to a phone survey of 1,500 Evangelical and Black Protestant pastors conducted by Lifeway Research March 5-18, 2015. The 2015 Pastor Protection study was sponsored by the North American Mission Board and Richard Dockins, MD

Methodology

4

51% of pastors started at their current church in the last 6 years

10%

25%

21%

17%

11%

6%

10%

17%

33%

15%

10%

9%

7%

9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Last 15-21 months*

2-5 yrs ago

6-10 yrs ago

11-15 yrs ago

16-20 yrs ago

21-25 yrs ago

26+ yrs ago

2021

2015

Among Evangelical and Black Protestant Pastors

Q2: “In what year did you become the senior pastor of this church?” n=1,576

*2015 survey asked 2014-Mar 2015

2021 survey asked 2020-Sept 2021

5

51% 49%43%

57%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Yes No

2021 2015

Q3: “Is this the first church you have served as senior pastor?”

The number of first-church pastors increased from 2015 to 2021


6

Where is the pastor who was pastoring this church 10 years ago?

2%

2%

16%

3%

2%

3%

5%

12%

10%

44%

2%

3%

11%

5%

4%

5%

6%

13%

14%

37%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

The church was between pastors

Not applicable/church did not exist

Not sure who pastor was

Not sure

Working in a non-ministry role

Deceased

Working in another ministry role other than pastor

Pastoring another church

Retired

I was pastor at that time

2021

2015

Q2: “In what year did you become the senior pastor of this church?”

Q4: “Do you know the name of the person who was pastor of your current church in August 2011?”

Q5: “As far as you know, which of the following best describes where that pastor is today?” combined n=1,576

Whereabouts of person who pastored this church in August 2011

7

Pastors who have left a church in the past 10 years tend to be retired or pastoring another church

9%

7%

8%

15%

35%

28%

10%

8%

10%

13%

28%

30%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Not sure

Working in a non-ministry role

Deceased

Working in another ministryrole other than pastor


Retired

2021

2015

Q5: “As far as you know, which of the following best describes where that pastor is today?”

Among pastors who were not at their current church in

2005/ 2011 and who can name the pastor at that time

8

● Defined as pastors who have left the pastorate for reasons other than

retirement or death in the last 10 years.

● Cohorts studied are those who were pastoring in February 2005 and

August 2011

● Estimate of Pastor Attrition assumes that the current whereabouts for

pastors unknown to the current pastor of their church is the same as

those in which their whereabouts is known.

• The cumulative known attrition rate undercounts attrition where

the previous pastor’s whereabouts are unknown.

• The Pastor Attrition Rate Estimate is:

• February 2005 cohort: 13% over 10 years

• August 2011 cohort: 15% over 10 years (difference from

2005 is not statistically significant)

Based on churches where the current pastor knows the

whereabouts of the pastor 10 years prior applied to all

congregations that existed in that year that had a pastor

Pastor Attrition

9

Estimated whereabouts of all August 2011 pastors (known percentages applied to all pastors)

4%

5%

9%

21%

17%

44%

6%

7%

9%

19%

20%

39%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Working in a non-ministry role*

Deceased

Working in another ministry role otherthan pastor*


Retired

I was pastor at that time

2021

2015

Q5: “As far as you know, which of the following best describes where that pastor is today?”

Base: Churches that existed and had a pastor in August 2011

Whereabouts of person who pastored this church in August 2011

*Pastor Attrition

10

Reasons previous pastor left the pastorate

5%

13%

17%

13%

10%

26%

37%

5%

8%

10%

12%

13%

18%

32%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Illness

Moral or ethical issues

Family issues

Poor fit with a church

Burnout

Conflict in a church

Change in calling

2021 2015

Q6: “To the best of your knowledge, why did this pastor leave the pastorate? (Select all that apply)”

Base: August 2011 pastor is working in another ministry role other than pastor or working in a non-ministry role


11

Reasons previous pastor left the pastorate continued

4%

12%

16%

3%

5%

8%

13%

9%

16%

3%

5%

5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

None of these

Not sure

Another reason

Lack of preparation for the job

Illness

Personal finances

2021 2015

Q6: “To the best of your knowledge, why did this pastor leave the pastorate? (Select all that apply)”

Base: August 2011 pastor is working in another ministry role other than pastor or working in a non-ministry role


12

28%

48%

16%

7%1%

29%

51%

13%6%

1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q7: “My seminary or ministry training prepared me to handle the people side of ministry.” Not applicable responses removed

Pastors who agree their training prepared them for the people side of ministry decreased slightly


13

44%36%

10% 8%2%

41% 39%

10% 9%1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q8: “I expect I will need to confront conflict in this church in the future.”

80% of pastors agree they will need to confront conflict in this church in the future in both 2015 & 2021


14

61%

33%

5%1% 1%

68%

27%

4% 2% <1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q9: “I consistently protect my time with my family.” Not applicable responses removed

Pastors who strongly agree they consistently protect time with their family decreased from 2015 to 2021


15

60%

30%

5% 3% 2%

58%

30%

5% 3% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q10: “I am sure I can stay at this church as long as I want.”

Pastors who agree they are sure they can stay at their church as long as they want is unchanged


16

34%38%

17%11%

<1%

51%

33%

10% 7%<1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q11: “I feel I must be ‘on-call’ 24 hours a day.”

The number pastors who feel they must be ‘on-call’ 24 hours a day decreased


17

54%

30%

11%3% 2%

67%

23%

7%2% 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q12: “I work hard to protect my image as a pastor.”

Pastors who agree they work hard to protect their image as a pastor decreased from 90% to 84%


18

7%12%

27%

53%

1%8%

13%21%

58%

<1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q13: “My family resents the demands of pastoral ministry.” Not applicable responses removed

Pastors who agree their family resents the demands of pastoral ministry is unchanged


19

48%42%

8%2% 1%

53%

37%

6% 3% 1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q14: “I consistently listen to people in our church for signs of conflict.”

There was no change in pastors who agree they consistently listen for signs of conflict in their

church (but strong agreement decreased)


20

15%

35%29%

20%

1%

16%

32%28%

23%

1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q15: “I often feel the demands of ministry are greater than I can handle.”

Pastors who agree they often feel the demands of ministry are greater than they can handle is

unchanged


21

The number who have a staff member present when counseling members of the opposite sex is

unchanged

3%

1%

2%

6%

10%

16%

62%

2%

3%

2%

5%

10%

17%

61%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Not sure

I do not counsel members of theopposite sex

I do not counsel

Strongly disagree

Somewhat disagree

Somewhat agree

Strongly agree

2021 2015

Q16: “I have another staff member present when counseling church members of the opposite sex.”


22

46%

31%

12%7%

3%

47%

28%

13%9%

3%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q17: “I refer church members to a professional counselor when the situation requires more than two sessions.”

Pastors who refer members to a professional counselor if the situation requires more than two

sessions is unchanged


23

13%

29% 26%32%

1%

19%

34%

22% 25%

<1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q18: “I am often concerned about the financial security of my family.” Not applicable responses removed

Pastors who agree they are often concerned about their family’s financial security decreased from 53% to 41%


24

29%

40%

17%

8% 5%

36%40%

13%7% 5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q19: “I deserve the respect of my people.”

The number of pastors who agree they deserve the respect of their people decreased from 76% to 70%


25

Percentage of pastors who are married

1%

1%

2%

96%

2%

1%

2%

95%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Widowed

Divorced/separated

Single, never married

Married

2021 2015

Q20: “Which of the following best describes your marital status?” Refusal responses removed


26

Fewer churches have a list of counselors to refer people to (60% v. 67%)

2%

34%

29%

34%

67%

70%

84%

7%

28%

32%

36%

60%

70%

77%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

None of these

A lay counseling ministry

A plan for the pastor to periodically receive asabbatical

A pastor encouragement group that invests in the wellbeing of the pastor’s family*

A list of counselors to refer people to

A document that clearly communicates the church’s expectations of the pastor

A process for church discipline

2021

2015

Q21: “Which if any of the following does your church have in place today? (Select all that apply)”


Not sure <1%*2015 wording “A pastor support group that

invests in the health of the pastor’s family”

27

Fewer pastors have taken courses on interpersonal skills

3%

9%

52%

64%

72%

75%

90%

4%

8%

48%

58%

67%

74%

87%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

None of these

Obtained a graduate degree incounseling

Taken graduate school coursesin counseling

Attended conferences oncounseling

Taken courses on interpersonalskills

Taken courses on dealing withconflict

Read several books or articleson counseling

2021

2015

Q22: “Which of the following training, if any, have you received? (Select all that apply)”


Not sure <1%

28

1% 2% 4% 7% 8%16% 12%

50%

1% <1% 2%6% 6%

16%10%

59%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ormore

2021 2015

Q24: “In the last 7 days, how many times have you had personal time alone with the Lord involving Bible study and prayer, other than sermon

or lesson preparation?”

Pastors who spend time alone with the Lord every day of the week went from 59% to 50%


29

71%

25%

2% <1% 1%

82%

16%

1% <1% 1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q25: “My spouse is very satisfied with my marriage today.”

Fewer pastors strongly agree their spouse is very satisfied with their marriage today


30

21%

41%

22%15%

1%

19%

35%

24% 21%

1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q26: “The role of being a pastor is frequently overwhelming.”

Pastors who agree their role is frequently overwhelming increased from 54% to 63%


31

43% 46%

6%1% 3%

46% 46%

4% 2% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q27: “I invest in processes and behaviors to prevent conflict.”

Pastors agree they invest in processes and behaviors to prevent conflict went from 92% to 89%


32

12%

26% 28% 27%

7%11%

29% 26% 26%

8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q28: “This church would not have achieved the progress it has without me.”

Pastors who agree their church would not have achieved the progress it has without them is

unchanged


33

7%

16%

32%

44%

1%6%

15%

31%

47%

1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q29: “My church has unrealistic expectations of me.”

Pastors who agree their church has unrealistic expectations of them is unchanged


34

60%

26%

8% 5%1%

59%

26%

10%5%

<1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q30: “At least one day a week I “unplug” from ministerial work and have a day of rest.”

The number of pastors who agree they “unplug” from ministerial work and have a day of rest at least

one day a week is unchanged


35

3%

18%

29%

50%

1%4%

20%

35%40%

1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q32: “I frequently get irritated with people at the church.”

Pastors who frequently get irritated with people at their church decreased from 24% to 21%


36

10%

28%22%

40%

1%6%

29%21%

45%

<1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q33: “I feel isolated as a pastor.”

Pastors who agree they feel isolated as a pastor is unchanged (but strong agreement increased)


37

42%

26%

11% 9% 12%

41%

28%

10% 10% 11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q34: “The search team or leaders who invited me to my church accurately described the church before I arrived.”

The same number of pastors, 1 in 5, disagree that the church accurately described the church before

they arrived


38

5%

26%32%

37%

<1%4%

31%27%

38%

0%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q35: “The demands of ministry keep me from spending time with my family.”

The number of pastors who agree the demands of ministry keep them from spending time with their

family decreased from 35% to 31%


39

56%

34%

7%1% 1%

63%

31%

4% 1% 1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q36: “My spouse is enthusiastic about our life in ministry together.”

The percentage of married pastors who agree their spouse is enthusiastic about life in ministry together

decreased from 94% to 91%


40

54%

35%

8%2% <1%

60%

32%

6%1% 0%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q37: “My congregation regularly provides my family with genuine encouragement.”

Pastors who agree their family regularly receives genuine encouragement from the church decreased

slightly (92% to 90%)


41

49%

37%

10%3% 1%

53%

36%

7%3% 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

StronglyAgree

SomewhatAgree

SomewhatDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Not Sure

2021 2015

Q38: “I feel free to say ‘no’ when expectations of me are unrealistic.”

Pastors who agree they feel free to say “no” when expectations are unrealistic decreased from

89% to 86%


42

Most pastors meet to share struggles with their spouse, close friend, or another pastor in both 2015

& 2021

2%

9%

33%

38%

42%

50%

71%

74%

90%

5%

9%

23%

35%

40%

42%

66%

68%

82%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

None of these

A counselor

A Bible study group in yourchurch

Another staff member

A mentor

Lay leaders in the church

Another pastor

A close friend

Your spouse

2021

2015

Q39: “Do you meet at least once a month and openly share your struggles with any of the following? (Select all that apply)”


Not sure <1%

43

Reasons pastors left their last church

20%

8%

18%

18%

18%

19%

23%

34%

54%

24%

10%

14%

18%

21%

22%

25%

33%

47%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

None of these

You were asked to leave the church

You were reassigned

You were not a good fit for the church

The church had unrealistic expectations of you

The church did not embrace your approach topastoral ministry

Conflict in the church

Your family needed a change

You took the church as far as you could

2021

2015

Q40: “Which of the following reasons describe why you left your last church? (Select all that apply)”


Not sure <1%

44

More pastors experienced a significant personal attack (39% v. 34%)

36%

13%

27%

25%

38%

38%

34%

31%

12%

27%

28%

38%

39%

39%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

None of these

Conflict over doctrinal differences

Conflict over your leadership style

Conflict over expectations about thepastor's role

Conflict with lay leaders

Conflict over changes you proposed

Experienced a significant personal attack

2021

2015

Q41: “Which of the following types of conflict did you personally experience as pastor in your last church? (Select all that apply)”

Among Pastors who Served in a Previous Church

Not sure <1%

Only comparable options shown

Pastor Attrition Study2021 compared to 2015

A SURVEY OF 1,576 EVANGELICAL AND BLACK PROTESTANT PASTORS

pastor attrition study 2021 compared to 2015

Documents