Path to a world without hunger ...

www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition

… 2 perspectives

“Kids will see hunger only in museums”

Trade barriers, tilted playing field

Their population growth outstrips the food supply

anyway we give more than anyone else

Trillions of $ wasted! - no change 1 b still starving

MDGs won’t be achievedOur $ Swiss bank accounts of corrupt dictators

Corrupt multinationals

2008 recession

We never promised 0.7% and

“Trade not aid”

“Things will get worse

no matter what we do”

Aid does more harm than good

There’s progress. What about the broken promises?

We need to do more – there’s plenty of food

Wor

ld G

DP

$PPP

per

ca

p (e

st) 1

500-

2100

3

1500 2000$0

$5,000

$10,000

India to 1500

China & Indiato 1850

WesternEuropeto 1945

USA & WestEurope

since 1945

http://ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/

Economic dominance China &India 2040?

[]

[]

30%

2000

Increas

ing pove

rty83%

Frac

tion

in e

xtre

me

pove

rty

1970

A nation in the poverty trap

13 nations in the poverty trapIn 5 of them hunger is increasing

5www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/06/21/2010_failed_states_index_interactive_map_and_rankingshttp://www.ifpri.org/datasets

Number of malnourished world-wide

61970 1980 1990 2000 2010

500

600

700

800

900

1000M

illio

ns u

nder

-nou

rishe

d(W

HO

gro

wth

cha

rts)

FAO field measurements

water-fetcher

See also: WHO, UN, WB, USDA, CIA, OECDFAO data

World% undernourished

71970 1980 1990 2000 201015

33%

17%

FAO field measurements

22%

14%

Num

ber o

f peo

ple

(bill

ions

) ad

equa

tely

nou

rishe

d (F

AO

dat

a)

81970 1980 1990 2000 2010200

300

400

500

600

f(x) = 8.21121293077501 x − 15930.2774664487

[ ]2010 UN 86% 587b ?

Number fed & malnourished worldwide

9

1970 2010 2015 target

2030 FAO est

0

2000

4000

6000

8000 FedMalnourished

Millions

FAO data

14%

Prediction

6%11%

Target

33%

10

30%

2000Decreasing poverty

80%Fr

actio

n in

pov

erty

Ethiopia: on the development ladder

11

43%

32%

Decreasing poverty

Frac

tion

in p

over

ty

12

"Feeling good paying for total strangers to eat”

“Not us” }

GD

P ga

p:

% g

row

th in

poo

r co

untr

ies

exce

eds

deve

lope

d

year2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

% G

DP/

cap

pa fo

r poo

r nat

ions

vs

% fo

r ric

h

2008 GDP/capita:Developing countries 3.93%Developed countries -0.03Advantage = 3.96%

MD

Gs:

Wor

ld p

rogr

ess

140 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

2005

2006

% < $1.25 /day

% undernourished

% deaths < 5y

H2O

gree

n ba

r is

targ

et fo

r 201

5

2006

red bar is 1990; yellow is 2008

school

pregnt

“Phantom aid” doesn't work

• Aid that isn’t given – broken promises• $ flow mostly benefits the rich nation• Aid with strings attached, contingent

on UN votes, WB loans, unfair trade• Dumped food surplus local economy• Famine aid isn’t intended for development• Multinational $ → dictators for concessions• $ → to rich nation lobbyists to benefit MNCorpns

15

UK banks complicit in Nigerian corruption

Paul Collier: The bottom billion

Corrupt heads of state - Rich

16

Series1

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

poor politi

c

dictato

r

politicia

ns

multinati

onals10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

Accept “bribes” to give trade concessions that impoverish their people

Accept personal/campaign “inducements” to allow “bribery” of decision makers at home & abroad

$1000s

& Poor

Aid that does work

• Transparent , open bids & accountable • Partnerships not paternalism• SMART objectives: 8 MDGs; @@ objectives,

@@ markers, • Strategies revised annually - both partners• Externally monitored• Not self-serving• Firm long commitments: MV, Grameen

17

• Grameen Family of social enterprises

• Billionnaire philanthropists & foundations

• The Millennium Village project

• Passionate & influential voices for change

• Scientists & students bring their energy

• The MDGs and beyond

• Innovations: agric & ... dissemminate instantly

Agents of change

19

Passionate renegades

The End

20

% In

fant

mor

talit

y <

5 ye

ars

211920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

10

20

30

40

http

://w

ww

.chi

ldin

fo.o

rg/m

orta

lity_

infa

ntm

orta

lity.

php

also

ww

w.g

apm

min

der.o

rg

Still poverty trapped

India

USA

Singapore

Porkbarrelling & Swiss bank a/c’s

multi-nationals

dictators

numbered bank a/c’s

Rich nationpoliticians government

taxpayers in poor countries

commod

ities

taxpayers in rich (Nato?) countries

“military-industrialcomplex”

Tanks & rockets for right wing regimes, invasions for “freedom & democracy”, & depose “socialists” Treaties force unfair tariffs & trade.

Share-holders

$

$

$

$$$

$

election funds,inducements

concessions

$$

5 Nations where hunger is increasing

23

http://www.ifpri.org/datasets