pathogen management modelling - apeg
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Pathogen management modelling presentation given at the APEG 201 conference held at Cefas.TRANSCRIPT
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Pathogen management and modelling
Nick TaylorPopulation
Ecologist/Epidemiological Modeller
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Disease monitoring and emergence• Fish Health Inspectorate:
– 10 field inspectors
– Visit 700+ APB’s per annum
– Early identification of problems
– Big picture perspective
• Epidemiology and risk assessment: – ID potential threats
– Assess the risk posed
– Suggest mitigation measures
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Emerging diseases
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Pathogen testing• Reference lab (EU, national, OIE) for:
– Viral haemorrhagic septicaemia
– Infectious haematpoietic necrosis
– Bacterial kidney disease
– Gyrodactylus salaris
– Spring viraemia of carp
– Marteiliosis
– Bonamiasis
– Infectious pancreatic necrosis
– Crayfish plague.
• Pathogen culture, PCR, antigen ELISA and antibody testing.
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Field studies• Assess distribution and
scale.
• Study pathogen life-cycles and dynamics in the real world.
• Conduct classical epidemiological studies: Cross-sectional
Cohort
Case-control
• Identify risk factors.
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Complex data and statistical tools
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0.8
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May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02 Sep-02 Oct-02 Nov-02 Dec-02 Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03
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Pathogen life-cycles
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Experimental studies
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Pathogen challenge studies
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Efficacy against pathogen
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Abu
ndan
ce
c1c2c3t1t2t3
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Benefit to host
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Environmental impact
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Disease modelling
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Optimal application and control policies
10°C 15°C 20°C 25°C
pH 6.1 1 1 1 1
pH 6.4 1 1 1 2
pH 6.7 1 1 2 2
pH 7.0 1 2 2 3
pH 7.3 1 1 2 2
pH 7.6 1 1 1 2
pH 7.9 1 1 1 1
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Summary
• What’s the problems.
• Extent and severity.
• How to test for it.
• What drives it.
• What’s its life-cycle.
• Effective treatments.
• How to manage.