Prospects of a low carbon energy transition

India: A case study

Poverty

• 1/3rd of people living at less than $ 1.25 a day, live in India

• Planning Commission’s headcount is 354.7 mn• IMR is 44 per 1000 population• Institutional delivery is 40.8% per 1000• 78.9% children are anaemic• Over 40% children are stunted/underweight

Middle Class

• Global middle class defined as earning between $10 - $50 per day

• Only 5% or 70 million Indians in this class• Only 0.06% rural and 0.23% urban Indians

have incomes of more than $50 per day• The poverty burden is thus 95%!!

Energy Access

• 32.7% Hh have no access to electricity• 70% Hh rely on traditional biomass for cooking• 65% PHCs are not electrified• 53% govt schools are unelectrified

46%

25%

17%5%

5% 2%

FIndian Energy Demand (2012): Sectoral Shares

Industry

Cooking

Transport

Lighting and Applicances

Agriculture

Telecom

31%

25%18%

8%

6%6%

2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0%

India Energy Supply (2012): Sectoral Shares

Domestic Coal

Non-commercial energy

Petroloeum imports

Coal imports

Domestic Natural gas

Domestic Crude oil

LNG imports

Domestic Hydro power

Domestic Lignite

Nuclear power

Renewable Energy

Hydro power imports

Agriculture Lighting and appliances

Cooking Industry Transport0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Energy Demand Scenarios: Planning Commission (TWh/yr)

2012 (Baseline energy demand)

2047 (Least effort scenario)

2047 (Maximum energy security (heroic effort in demand manage-ment))

2047 (Minimum emissions pathway)

Natural gas Oil Coal Others (including renewables and

bioenergy)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Energy supply scenarios: Planning Commission (TWh/yr)

2012 (Baseline energy supply)

2047 (Least effort scenario)

2047 (Maximum energy security (heroic effort in demand manage-ment))

2047 (Minimum emissions pathway)

Coal

Oil

Nat

ural

gas

Nuc

lear

Hydr

o

Sola

r

Win

d

Biom

ass-

base

d po

wer

Was

te-t

o-en

ergy

Geo

ther

mal

Tida

l

Biof

uel f

or tr

ansp

orta

tion0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%53

%

32%

11%

1% 2%

0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

58%

26%

7% 5%

1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%

4% 3% 3%

0%

4%

43%

18%

1% 0% 0% 0%

23%

Energy Supply Scenarios (Percentages): WWF-TERI

2011 Baseline

2051 Reference Scenario

2051 Alternate Scenario

Synopsis of policy measures for Renewables

• National Solar Mission and National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency

• Renewable purchase obligations coupled with renewable energy certificates

• Generation based incentives and feed-in tariffs• Long term purchase agreements

Barriers for renewables

• Sub-optimal financial leveraging/lack of public financing

• Grid limitations• Social and environmental tradeoffs for some

technologies• Governance capacity

Additional policy initiatives needed

• Rationalise tariffs/eliminate energy losses• Rationalise subsidies• Grid strengthening• Initiate policy measures to promote off-grid

electricity access solutions