pathways to the futures of education anticipating change and taking informed actions hawai‘i p-20...
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Pathways to the Futures of EducationAnticipating change and taking informed actions
Hawai‘i P-20 Partnership for EducationKo‘olau Ballrooms and Conference Center, 11/13/15
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Richard Kaipo Lum, PhD
Vision Foresight Strategy LLC“Reframing the future.”www.visionforesightstrategy.com
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FUTURES STUDIESUnderstanding and anticipating change in society
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Understand and anticipate change in society…and then help others reframe their expectations and preferences for the future.
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Two Complementary Aspects
Analytic: understanding
and anticipating change
Synthetic: reframing
expectations and preferences
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Foresight:
Insight into how and why the future could be different from the present.
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Elements of Our Work
Historical analysis
Images of the future
Theories of change and stability Trends & emerging issues
Forecasting
Preferred futures
Innovation & creativity
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Theories of ChangeHow and why to societies, industries, communities, and organizations change?
• “Long wave” theories of economic change
• Diffusion of technology throughout society
• Pathways of institutional change
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Scanning and Emerging Issues AnalysisSearching for signals of potentially important developments.
• Anticipating future public policy issues
• Exploring future technologies
• Tracking the rise of new concepts and philosophies
The “new normal”Rapid maturation,“mainstreaming”
Academic/scientificexploration
Fringe thinking
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Who Uses Foresight?
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SOCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE
It’s happened before, and it will happen again
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The “Roadmap” in the 1950s
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The “Roadmap” Today…?
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TRENDS & EMERGING ISSUESScanning for Signals of Emerging Change
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Trends Emerging Issues
Trends vs. Emerging Issues
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• Generational change• Digitization (everything)• Ubiquitous internet
access• Shrinking middle class• Rising income inequality• Rising global economic
competition
• Decline of US student performance
• Rising cost of college ed• Decreasing funding for
public education• Rising dissatisfaction
with ed outcomes• Shift to career readiness
A Few Trends…
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• Adaptive learning• Alternative
credentialing• Augmented/virtual
reality• Artificial intelligence• Big data• Co-production/co-
learning
• Internet of things• Learning analytics• Nanodegrees• Online education• Open educational
resources• Tighter coupling of
employer interests and educational design
…And Some Emerging Issues
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IMAGES OF THE FUTUREVisions shape actions and perceptions
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Unwinding Higher Ed
The Reformed Institution
Bifurcation of Learning
Competing Images of the Future
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RESPONSES TO CHANGEAnticipating the reactions of stakeholders
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Three Basic Responses to Change
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TYPES OF STRATEGIESSelecting the best approach to achieving goals
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A concept or theory for how, in a given context and employing a given set of resources and competencies, you expect to achieve your goals
Strategy
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Conflict Competition Coincidence
Three Categories of Strategies
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Control the dynamic
Divide and conquer
Hit them where it
hurts
Deterrence
Take small bites
Negotiate while
advancing
Strategies of Conflict
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Segmentation (of the market)
Differentiation (within the
market)
Cost leadership (within the
market)
Strategies of Competition
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Stepping stone
Building block
EcosystemNetwork
Seeding
Strategies of Coincidence
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Now let’s play with some of these ideas…
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4 Steps to the Future: A Quick and Clean Guide to ForesightBy Richard Lum
Intended to guide business readers through a complete and easy-to-use process for foresight.
The book will:• Provide a complete A-to-Z
foresight process in simple and straight forward language
• Outline the exercises for running your own workshops
• Provide the worksheets needed to lead workshop participants to producing results
• Give readers the confidence that their organization is asking the right questions about the future
December 2015
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Mahalo.