Paul S. HerrnsonUniversity of Connecticut

State Legislative Leaders FoundationMay 7, 2015

Candidates must wage two campaigns Incumbents have huge advantages Campaign finance system has disintegrated New possibilities, pressures, and pitfalls for

donors It’s not always a race between 2 candidates

anymore

The campaign for votes The campaign for resources

• Logistics• Strategy• Message• Communications• Motivate supporters, win persuadable

voters, depress turnout for opposition

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Prior to the campaign season District composition High visibility & popularity

During the campaign season Quality of the opposition Head start/early lead Expectations Voting cues

“The cycle” Most incumbents win, but many run

scared...

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Fundraising• Logistics

– Begins early, ends after the election – State or nationwide

• Steps– Identify a financial constituency– Develop a pitch– Start local, build out– Match techniques to donors

Political consulting talent Endorsements Outside spending groups

• Interest Groups• Political action committees (PACs)• Corporations, unions, trade associations, others

• Political parties• Party politicians• Individuals – Small $’s from district and elsewhere– Large $’s from the wealthy areas

Personal Solicitation

Big $Egos

Access

Fundraising Events

Mid $ Social

Direct Response: -Direct Mail -Telemarketing

Low $ The Cause

Source: Nancy Bocskor

The Fundraising Pyramid

• Experienced organization• Tried and true fundraising list and pitch• Money is drawn to power• Expectations• Dynamics– Start early (continuous f-r)– Raise lots $ scare off competition OR keep raising

$• Challenger disadvantages –Opposite situation– “Catch 22”

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Court rulings, regulatory decisions…

From 3 Letters…PAC (political action committee)

….To Alphabet SoupPACsSuper PACs (IE-only committees)527 committees501(c)s / social welfare organizationsCorporations, trade associations, labor unions, others

Source: Center for Responsive Politics data.

Put Alaska First PAC $10,157,335 supports Begich (D-Ak.)

Kentuckians for Strong Leadership

$6,409,610 supports McConnell (R-Kty.)

Committee to Elect an Independent Senate

$3,891,371 supports Orman (I-Kans.)

Source: Center for Responsive Politics data.

Court rulings, regulatory decisions, 24-hour news cycle

… Individuals can do almost anything

...may be asked to do everything

The almost can backfire… and everyone can learn about it

Contribute to a candidate, party, traditional PAC, 527, 501(c), super PAC, single-candidate super PAC◦ No aggregate limit

Make unlimited expenditures◦ Same for corporations, unions, other groups

Create an organization or network of org’s ◦ Limited, disclosed contributions to regulated committees◦ Unlimited, undisclosed contributions to unregulated committees

Do nothing?◦ Depends on motives for contributing◦ Balance: impact on election and policy v. public exposure

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43,900 ads run this cycle (Jan 2013 – Aug 2014)

On course to spend $290 million in 2014

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20142014

Outside spending can be substantial In 2014… Parties and interest groups outspent both

candidates in 9 Senate and 19 House races Difficult for candidates

◦ Plan their campaigns◦ Disseminate their messages◦ Avoid the money chase

Voters hear a cacophony of voices Financed by wealthy individuals

& groups

Questions?

Thank you

Source: Paul S. Herrnson, Congressional Elections (Sage/CQ 2012).