pay-tv & ott outlook 2019 in europe
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PAY-TV & OTT OUTLOOK 2019 IN EUROPE10/10/2019
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AGENDA
Regional specificities
Forecasts and key trends
Market structure and competition
TV and OTT markets evolutions and connections
PAY-TV & OTT OUTLOOK 2019 IN EUROPE
COUNTRIES SPECIFICITIES
0 50 100 150
BulgariaSwitzerland
AustriaBelarus
HungarySwedenPortugal
Czech RepublicGreece
BelgiumNetherlands
RomaniaPoland
UkraineSpain
ItalyUK
FranceGermany
Russia
millions
POPULATIONTop 20 Europe - 2018
Source : Dataxis
GDP PER CAPITA IN EUROPEUSD - 2018
Source : Dataxis
> 40,000 $
20,000 $ - 40,000 $
10,000 $ - 20,000 $
< 10,000 $
Total Europe ≈ 750 M
COUNTRIES SPECIFICITIES
POPULATION DENSITYNumber of people per km² - 2018
Source : United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
> 200
100 - 200
50 - 100
< 50
Source : Agence France-Presse, April 2019
EUROPEAN UNION / EUROZONE2019
TV HOUSEHOLDS STRUCTURE
HOUSEHOLDSEurope – 2018Number of households
TV PENETRATIONEurope – 2018Number of households, % of total households
Source : Dataxis Source : Dataxis
312 300
188
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
HOUSEHOLDS TV HOUSEHOLDS DIRECT PAY TV HOUSEHOLDS
milli
ons
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
100%
275
280
285
290
295
300
305
310
315
320
325
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
milli
ons
Total Households Total TV Households TV Penetration
TV HOUSEHOLDS STRUCTURE – PAY TV & FTA MARKETS
PAY-TV & FTA HOUSEHOLDSEurope – 2016-2024Number of households
Source : Dataxis
0
50
100
150
200
250
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
milli
ons
Direct pay TV households FTA households
66% 34%
Direct pay TV households FTA households
PAY-TV & FTA HOUSEHOLDSEurope – 2019% of Total households
Source : Dataxis
OVERVIEW OF COMPETITION
TOP 10 PAY-TV GROUPSEurope – Q2 2019Number of subscribers
Source : Dataxis Source : Dataxis
0 5 10 15
Digi Romania
Telefonica Espana
Sky Italy
SFR France
Canal Plus (France)
Sky Deutschland
Orange France
Sky UK
Rostelecom (Russia)
Tricolor (Russia)
millions0 10 20
Polsat
Vodafone
Deutsche Telekom
Cable Communications Systems …
Altice
Vivendi
Orange
Rostelecom
Liberty Global
Comcast
millions
TOP 10 PAY-TV OPERATORSEurope – Q2 2019Number of subscribers
INCREASE IN INTERNATIONAL ACQUISITIONS
2018 - 2019
Vodafone acquired Liberty Global’s activities in:GermanyCzech RepublicHungaryRomania
2019
Canal+ (Vivendi) acquired M7 group
2018 - 2019
MTS Srbija acquired multiple cable operators
PAY-TV SUBSCRIBERS OUTLOOK
Source : Dataxis
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Direct cable TV
DTH IPTV DTT MMDS OTT Direct cable TV
DTH IPTV DTT MMDS OTT Direct cable TV
DTH IPTV DTT MMDS OTT
Central and Eastern Europe CIS Western Europe
milli
ons
H1 2014
H1 2019
PAY-TV ACCESSESTotal subscribers by access in CEE, CIS & Western Europe – 2014 v 2019
PAY-TV SUBSCRIBERS OUTLOOK
Source : Dataxis
§ Cable
§ DTH
§ IPTV
MAIN PAY-TV ACCESSTotal subscribers Europe - 2018
Source : Dataxis
HD PAY-TV SUBSCRIBERS IN CEE2016 v 2019
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
H12016 H12019
milli
ons
+ 57 %
PAY-TV REVENUES MOSTLY CAPTURED BY DTH AND IPTV
Source : Dataxis
52% 48%
Western Europe CEE & CIS
85%
15%
Western Europe CEE & CIS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
billio
n eu
ros
Cable revenues DTH pay TV revenues DTT pay TV revenues IPTV revenues OTT Pay TV revenues
PAY-TV REVENUES BY ACCESSEurope – 2016-2022EUR Billion
Source : Dataxis
PAY-TV SUBSCRIBERSEurope – 2018% of total Pay-TV subscribers
PAY-TV REVENUESEurope – 2018% of total Pay-TV revenues
PAY-TV ARPU: VAST DISPARITIES BETWEEN COUNTRIES
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00
GD
P pc
Thou
sand
s
ARPU
Sources : Dataxis
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Pay-TV ARPU >10 Pay-TV ARPU <10 FTA
PAY-TV & FTA MARKET SHARES Europe - 2018% of total TV households
ARPU / GDP PER CAPITAEurope - 2018EUR
STRONG GROWTH IN OTT RECEPTION
11%
89%
PTV OTT SVOD
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2017 2018 2019 (forecast)
Milli
ons
PTV OTT SVOD
Source : Dataxis Source : Dataxis
OTT ACCOUNTS BY SERVICEEurope – 2017-2019Total number of accounts
OTT REVENUES BY SERVICEEurope – 2018% of revenues
STEADY ADOPTION OF STREAMING SERVICES
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018 H2 2018 H1 2019
Milli
ons
Netflix Amazon HBO Sky/Now TV SFR Others
5% 8%
87%
Local player Pan-european International
15%
22% 63%
Local player Pan-european International
Source : Dataxis Source : Dataxis
SVOD SUBSCRIBERS BY ACTOR TYPEEurope – 2019% of total SVOD subscribers
NUMBER OF SVOD PLATFORMS BY ACTOR TYPEEurope – 2019% of total number of platforms
SVOD SUBSCRIBERS BY PLATFORMEurope – 2015-2019Total subscribers
Source : Dataxis
CORD-CUTTING NOT PREVALENT IN EUROPE
• Diversity of situations depending on local competition and OTT situations
• “Cord-never”, a trend beginning in countries with low premium Pay-TV penetration and strong OTT presence
• OTT subscription not necessarily in direct competition with Pay-TV
0
50
100
150
200
2016 2017 2018
Milli
ons
Total direct pay TV subscribers SVOD and streaming service subscribers
05
10152025303540
2016 2017 2018
Billio
n eu
ros
Direct pay-TV revenues SVOD and streaming service revenues
Sources : Dataxis
PAY-TV v SVOD SUBSCRIBERSEurope – 2016-2018Total subscribers
PAY-TV v SVOD REVENUESEurope – 2016-2018EUR Billion
MARKET EVOLUTIONS: BROADCASTERS GOING OTT
Negociating affiliate fees
Going Pay D2C
Reviewing linear portfolio
Making their offer more valuable
Investing in exclusive online content
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Billio
n eu
ros
Tv networks advertising revenues TV public funding
TV NETWORKS ADVERTISING REVENUES & PUBLIC FUNDINGEurope – 2013-2019EUR Billion
Source : Dataxis
BROADCASTERS POTENTIAL SCENARIOS
MARKET EVOLUTIONS: OPERATORS’ OPTIONS
INVESTMENT IN CONTENT FOCUS ON AGGREGATION
MARKET EVOLUTIONS: MEDIA CONVERGENCE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1 play 2 play 3 play 4 play
Milli
ons
2013 2016 2019
Convergence with content:
PAY-TV SUBSCRIBERS BY NUMBER OF SERVICES OFFEREDEurope – 2013, 2016 & 2019Total subscribers
Source : Dataxis
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