pc - ganga cleanup oppurtunities...
TRANSCRIPT
Please refer to Disclosures and Disclaimers at the end of the Research Report.
Namami Ganga Big opportunity for sewerage and effluent treatment players
CAPITAL GOODS: Sector Update 25 November 2014
PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his election campaign had made cleaning up the river Ganga one of his topmost priorities. More recently, the Supreme Court has also issued instructions to the National Green Tribunal to strictly monitor effluents being released into the Ganga; industrial units violating norms to be shut down. As a result of the government and Supreme Court directives to clean up the river Ganga, we expect a renewed thrust on sewerage and effluent treatment infrastructure over the next decade and expect an opportunity worth Rs305bn‐360bn could come the way of sewerage and effluent treatment manufacturers.
The ‘holy’ Ganga is also the world’s fifth most polluted river. The Ganga is considered amongst the holiest rivers in the country with thousands of pilgrims thronging its banks to take a dip. However, the river today holds the infamous distinction of being the fifth most polluted river in the world; even after 29 years of the launch of the ‘Ganga Action Plan’ to address pollution levels in the river, the river remains worse off. In 2009, the ‘National Ganga River Basin Authority’ was formed with a vision to ensure no industrial/sewerage waste entered the river without treatment – at the current pace this remains a pipe dream. The new government has promised to clean up the river and wants to complete the same over the next decade by spending Rs510bn on setting up sewerage plants in 118 towns and villages. Sewerage treatment opportunity at Rs100‐120bn over the next 8‐10 years. Daily sewerage being generated by 50 cities along the river Ganga totals 2,723 MLD of which only 1,209 MLD is treated implying 44% treatment capacity. Inadequate sewage treatment capacities represent an opportunity of ~1500 MLD which translates to an opportunity size of ~Rs 75‐80bn. By 2025, sewage generated from cities along the Ganga is expected to rise to 4,100MLD and considering another 700 MLD being constructed, the gap would rise to 2,200 MLD by 2025. To create the necessary infrastructure an estimated investment of Rs 100‐120bn will be needed over next 8‐10 years.
Effluent treatment plants see early ordering as Supreme Court monitors progress. To meet the government’s vision of having zero liquid discharge of effluents into the Ganga, a total of 501MLD of effluent treatment plants are needed with an investment of Rs25‐30bn for 765 gross polluting industries. Note that Uttar Pradesh alone accounts for 54% of the effluents discharged with key contributing industries being Sugar, Paper, Distillery and Tanneries. An inspection by the CPCB of 440 units in 2013 found that only 5% of the industries were in compliance. With the Supreme Court directing the National Green Tribunal to act against polluting industries (including forced closure), we expect ordering for these plants to pick up in a big way from early next year.
Open drains/ nullahs also a key contributor to discharge of waste water. In the absence of adequate sewerage lines, drains have become open sewers to carry waste water to the river Ganga. A total of 6,087MLD of waste water/effluents are discharged via open sewers with Uttar Pradesh alone contributing 3,300MLD. A total of 19 drains need immediate attention which discharge 3,566MLD and would require investments of Rs180‐210bn.
Key beneficiaries include VA Tech, Thermax, L&T, Praj Industries, KEC International, Voltas which are present in the manufacture of sewerage and/or effluent treatment plants. With the Supreme Court ensuring that the polluting industries be taken to task, we expect ordering for effluent treatment plants to begin from early next year followed by sewerage treatment plants.
Companies KEC International CMP Rs 102Reco NeutralTarget Price Rs 100 L&T CMP Rs1,620Reco BUYTarget Price Rs1,870 Praj Industries CMP Rs73Reco BUYTarget Price Rs95 Thermax CMP Rs 1,050Reco SellTarget Price Rs 670 VA Tech Wabag CMP Rs1,600Reco BUYTarget Price Rs1,800 Voltas CMP Rs272Reco NeutralTarget Price Rs270 Ankur Sharma (+ 9122 66679759) [email protected] Hrishikesh Bhagat (+9122 6667 9986) [email protected]
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Key beneficiaries from the spending on water
Revenues (Rs bn)
Water as % of revenues
Municipal Sewerage
Effluent treatment
Products offered
Larsen and Toubro 850 5‐7 Yes Yes Water treatment, effluent and sewerage treatment plants VA Tech Wabag 26 50 Yes Yes Water treatment, effluent and sewerage treatment plants. Domestic is 50% of total KEC International 78 2‐3 Yes Yes Water treatment, effluent and sewerage treatment plants Praj Industries 10 18‐20 Yes Yes Water Treatment and Effluent treatment plant ‐ mainly industrial driven Thermax 57 8‐10 No Yes Water treatment, effluent and sewerage treatment plants ‐ focus is only on industrial
usage and will not do municipal plants Voltas 56 5‐6 Yes Yes Municipal and Effluent treatment plants ‐ focus is mostly on industrial segment. Tied
up recently with Dow Chemicals to address the water and waste water opportunity in the country
Ion Exchange 7 70‐75 Yes Yes Water treatment and sewerage treatment plants. Amongst the top 5 water companies in India
Pratibha Industries 23 NA Yes No Sewerage treatment plant and pipelines
Source: PhillipCapital India Research Municipal water and waste water treatment market (Rs mn) and YoY growth
6.6%
6.8%
7.0%
7.2%
7.4%
7.6%
7.8%
8.0%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Municipal water and wastewater market YoY Growth(%)
Source: PhillipCapital Industrial water and effluent treatment market (Rs mn) and YoY growth
‐15.0%
‐10.0%
‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
29,000
30,000
31,000
32,000
33,000
34,000
35,000
36,000
37,000
38,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Industrial water and effluent treatment YoY Growth(%)
Source: PhillipCapital
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Contents
Ganga flows through some of the densest states in India ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 4
So how polluted is the Ganga really? ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 7
Sewerage Treatment opportunity at Rs100‐120bn over
next 8‐10 years ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 10
Effluent Treatment plants – big opportunity over
the next 2‐3 years ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 13
Taj Trapezium Case Study ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 18
Drains/Nullahs – big concerns remain on these ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 19
Ganga Action Plan (GAP) – why has it not worked despite
so much money having been spent already? ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 26
Namami Ganga – What is it about and how is it progressing?‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 28
So how will so large a programme be funded? ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ 29
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Ganga flows through some of the densest states in India The River Ganga originates from the Gangotri glacier and cuts its path through the Himalayas traversing a distance of ~2,525kms before it joins the Bay of Bengal. On its way, it travels through the states of Uttarakhand, UP, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal creating a catchment area the size of a quarter of India.
Details of the River Ganga Length 2,525kms ‐‐ Uttarakhand 450kms ‐‐ Uttar Pradesh 1,000kms ‐‐ UP and Bihar 110kms ‐‐Bihar 405kms ‐‐Jharkhand 40kms ‐‐West Bengal 520kms Catchment Area 26.4% of India Average annual discharge 4.9bn cubic metre Main tributaries Yamuna, Ramganga, Gomti, Ghaghara, Gandak, Damodar, Kosi, Kali East Major cities located on banks Srinargar, Rishikesh, Haridwar, Roorkee, Bijnor, Narora,
Kanauj, Kanpur, Allahabad, Varanasi, Mirzapur, Patna, Bhagalpur, Behrampur,Serampore, Howrah and Kolkata
Source: PhillipCapital India Research As the river passes through these states, significant water is diverted for use in irrigation, drinking and hydel projects while partially/non treated sewerage and industrial effluents are added into the river making it unsuitable even for bathing purposes. (See illustration below)
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Course of the river Ganga from its origin to the Bay of Bengal
Source: Ministry of Water
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Upper reach of the Ganga River: Large no. of hydel projects slow down the flow
Middle reach of the Ganga River: Irrigation canals divert significant water while the river Kali and Yamuna bring in domestic/industrial waste at Kannauj and Allahabad
Lower reach of the Ganga – untreated sewerage and effluents added into the Ganga
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital India Research
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So how polluted is the Ganga really? To better understand the water quality trend, we analyze in more detail the states through which the Ganga flows. The maximum pollutants permissible for bathing are as notified by the Ministry of Environment and Forests below:
Source: CPCB Uttarakhand Amongst the four states river Ganga is relatively less polluted at Uttarakhand. Based on prescribed parameters pollution is largely prevalent around Alaknanda, Raiwala and Haridwar. Pollution levels at various locations in Uttarakhand Location DO BoD Faecal Coliform State Gangotri 8.5 0.7 Uttarakhand Alkananda B/C at Rudra Prayag 9.6 2500 Uttarakhand Mandakini Rudra Prayag 8.8 1800 Uttarakhand Alkananda A/C at Rudra Prayag 9.3 16650 Uttarakhand Alkananda B/C at Dev Prayag 9.1 1.2 5100 Uttarakhand Bhagirathi B/C at Dev Prayag 8.6 1 650 Uttarakhand Alkananda A/C at Dev Prayag 8.7 0.7 Uttarakhand Rishikesh U/S 9.1 1.7 Uttarakhand D/S Raiwala 7.8 4.5 27650 Uttarakhand Haridwar D/S 6.7 5.6 800 Uttarakhand D/S Roorkee 8.3 2.5 1150 Uttarakhand
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital India Research
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Uttar Pradesh In and around UP, water BoD is significantly above prescribed limit while the faecal coliform is also above prescribed limits. Key polluted stretches are: • In Upper stretch (Garhmukteshwar‐Kanpur), • In down stretch (Dalmau‐ Trighat) • Maximum BoD is observed at Varanasi D/S.
Pollution levels at various locations in Uttar Pradesh Location DO BoD Faecal Coliform State Garhmukteshwar 8.2 3.4 1,162 UP U/S, Anoop Shahar 8.4 2.8 673 UP D/S, Anoop Shahar 8.3 3.6 783 UP Narora 8.7 3.1 420 UP Kachhla Ghat 8.3 3.7 840 UP Kannauj U/S 7.9 4.5 3,042 UP Kannauj D/S 7.8 5.5 3,508 UP Bithoor 8.7 4 1,700 UP Kanpur U/S 8.6 4.3 6,667 UP Kanpur D/S 6.9 8.4 38,942 UP Dalmau 7.8 3.8 5,300 UP Kala Kankar 7.7 3.8 4,980 UP Rasoolabad 7.2 4.2 3,358 UP Allahabad D/S 7.2 4 3,408 UP Kadaghat 7.6 3.6 2,492 UP U/S Vindhyachal 8.7 3.7 332 UP D/S Mirzapur 7.7 3.6 2377 UP Varanasi U/S 7.6 3.9 8000 UP Varanasi D/S 7.1 8 40,000 UP Trighat 7.3 4.3 13,000 UP
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital India Research Bihar The stretch in Bihar is relatively clean as far as organic pollution goes; however high faecal contamination is observed. In most of the location water meets bathing standard. Pollution levels at various locations in Bihar Location DO BoD Faecal Coliform Location Buxar 8.4 2.8 3,122 Bihar Ramrekhaghat Buxar 8.4 2.9 7,500 Bihar Indrapuri Dehri On Sone 8.3 2.7 1,188 Bihar Doriganj Chapara 8.5 2.8 1,922 Bihar Khurji Patna (U/S) 8.4 2.7 2,767 Bihar Darbhanga Ghat, Patna 8.4 2.9 9,000 Bihar Patna D/S 8.4 2.9 5,667 Bihar Punpun, Patna 7.3 2.7 1,589 Bihar Fatuha 8.4 2.8 2675 Bihar Mokama (U/S) 8 2.7 2575 Bihar Mokama (D/S) 7.9 3 7638 Bihar Munger 7.8 2.7 2178 Bihar Sultanganj Bhagalpur 7.8 2.7 1943 Bihar Bhagalpur 7.7 2.8 3686 Bihar Kahalgaon 7.9 2.8 5611 Bihar
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital India Research
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West Bengal In West Bengal DO ranges from 4.3‐13.4 mg/l and is not meeting the water quality criteria notified for bathing at Tribeni, Howrah‐Shivpur, Garden Reach and Uluberia. BOD ranges from 0.3‐8.2 mg/l and not meeting the water quality criteria notified for bathing at most of the monitoring locations except Tribeni and Palta. Faecal coliform value ranges from 700‐11mn MPN/100ml. Faecal coliform is observed higher than the criteria at all monitoring locations. Pollution levels at various locations in West Bengal Location DO BoD Faecal coliform Location Location Baharam‐ Pore 8.3 2.2 105,364 West Bengal Tribeni Near Burning Ghat 8.2 1.7 3064 West Bengal Seram Pore 7.8 1.9 66,667 West Bengal Dakshin‐ Eshwar 7.8 4 270,333 West Bengal Nabadip 8.5 2.1 13,573 West Bengal Howrah Shivpur 7.3 4 130,750 West Bengal Garden (Reach 6.8 4.1 164,833 West Bengal Uluberia 5.9 2.8 32,500 West Bengal Palta 7.7 2.1 84,667 West Bengal Diamond Harbour 7.1 2.1 20,333 West Bengal
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital India Research
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Sewerage Treatment opportunity at Rs100‐120bn over the next 8‐10 years One of the key pollutants in the Ganga is discharge of untreated sewerage from cities along the banks of the river. Lack of adequate sewerage treatment plants and /or non functional plants is the key reason for discharge of untreated sewerage being put into the Ganga. A total of 50 cities along the Ganga daily generate ~2,723MLD of sewerage of which there is treatment capacity available only for 1,209MLD (44% of generation). Sewerage generation and treatment capacity in the Ganga basin Category Wastewater‐ generation (MLD) Treatment Capacity(MLD)Class ‐ I (36) 2,601 1,192Class ‐ II (14) 122 16Total (50) 2,723 1,209
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital India Research
Sewerage generation and treatment capacity in the Ganga basin
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital India Research
Sewage generation is highest in the state of West Bengal followed by UP, Bihar and Uttarakhand. Key cities that contribute maximum to sewage generation are Varanasi, Kanpur and Allahabad in UP, Kolkata, Howrah in West Bengal and Patna in Bihar. Note that Kanpur, Patna Kolkata and Howrah have the maximum deficit in treatment facility and accounts for 600 MLD of 1500 MLD deficit in treatment facilities. Cities with largest deficit in sewerage treatment facility
Source: CPCB
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Performance of Sewerage treatment plants in Ganga catchment area States No. Of STPs Installed Capacity (MLD) Actual Utilized Capacity (MLD)Uttar Pradesh 8 358 287Uttarakhand 4 54 ‐West Bengal 34 457 214Bihar 5 140 100Total 51 1,009 602
Source: CPCB We note that even the existing sewerage treatment plants installed in Ganga catchment areas are operating at only 60% utilization with significant under utilization in West Bengal and quite a few number of non functional treatment plants. West Bengal also generates maximum Sewerage waste and under investment in STP calls for immediate action. State and city wise Sewerage Generation and Treatment capacity States/UT
City/Town Sewage generation
( in MLD) Treatment Capacity
(in MLD)Uttarakhand Haridwar 40 18 Class I Rishikesh 11 6 Class II Roorkee 11 ‐ Class II Sub‐Total 61 24Uttar Pradesh Kanpur 339 171 Class I
Varanasi 187 141 Class I Allahabad 208 89 Class I Farrukhabad‐cum‐Fatehgarh 31 8 Class I Mirzapur‐Vindhyachal 28 14 Class I Unnao 24 19 Class I Ballia 18 ‐ Class I
Najibabad 8 ‐ Class II Bijnor 8 8 Class II Mughalsarai 16 ‐ Class II Ghazipur 11 ‐ Class II Kannauj 7 ‐ Class II Deoband 8 ‐ Class II Gangaghat 7 ‐ Class II Sub Total 898 451Bihar Munger 34 14 Class I Katihar 32 32 Class I Bhagalpur 62 11 Class I Patna 249 109 Class I Buxar 8 2 Class II Sitamarhi 7 ‐ Class II Begusarai 9 ‐ Class II Mokameh 8 ‐ Class II Sub Total 407 167West Bengal Kolkata 618 172 Class I
Haldia 25 25 Class I Santipur 19 19 Class I Nabadwip 16 10 Class I Basirhat 15 ‐ Class I Bangaon 14 ‐ Class I South Dumdum 53 53 Class I Rajpur Sonarpur 34 45 Class I Kamarhati 49 40 Class I North Dumdum 30 ‐ Class I Naihati 21 ‐ Class I Ulberia 27 ‐ Class I Kanchrapara 17 ‐ Class I Halisahar 17 ‐ Class I
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North Barrackpur 19 17 Class I Rishra 14 15 Class I Ashoknagar Kalyangarh 17 15 Class I Haora 136 64 Class I Bhatpara 60 29 Class I Maheshtala 53 4 Class I Serampore 27 19 Class I Chandannagar 16 23 Class I Habra 17 ‐ Class I
Ranaghat 6 ‐ Class II Sub Total 1,317 548 Total 2,723 1,209
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital As seen in the table above, fifty cities generate daily sewerage of 2,723 MLD of which only 1,209 MLD is treated implying 44% treatment capacity. Inadequate sewage treatment capacities represent an immediate deficit of ~1500 MLD which translates to opportunity of ~Rs 80bn. By 2025 daily sewage being generated from cities along the Ganga is expected to rise to 4,100MLD (Source: CPCB) and considering another 700 MLD being constructed, the gap would rise to 2200 MLD by 2025. To create the necessary infrastructure an estimated investment of Rs 100‐120bn will be needed over next 8‐10 years.
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Effluent Treatment plants – big opportunity over the next 2‐3 years There are 764 grossly polluting industries on the main stem of the Ganga and its two important tributaries, namely the Kali East and Ramganga in Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal. Note that of these 764 units, 687 are located in Uttar Pradesh alone followed by 42 in Uttarakhand. Major industries namely, tannery, sugar, distillery, paper, chemicals contribute the majority of the industrial discharge into the river. These generate 501MLD of effluents which implies an opportunity of Rs25‐30bn for setting up effluent treatment plants over the next 2‐3 years. The CPCB had conducted an analysis of 440 industries in 2103 to check for compliance with the MOEF norms – 23 industries (~5% of total) were found to be in compliance of which 20 were in tanneries. Action is/has been initiated against the rest. Sector wise classification of GPI’s
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Chemical Distillery Food Diary Pulp and Paper
Sugar Textile and
Bleaching
Tannery Other Total
GPI by sector
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital As seen in the table below, Uttar Pradesh has most of the GPI and also generates most of the effluent (54% of the total). This is understandable since most of the tanneries, sugar, paper and distilleries are to be found in the state of Uttar Pradesh. Statewise GPI’s and effluent generation State No of Industries Water consumption(MLD) Effluent generation(MLD)Uttarakhand 42 224 127UP 687 693 269Bihar 13 91 17Jharkhand 0 0 0West Bengal 22 116 87Total 764 1123 501
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital
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Statewise GPI’s and effluent generation
25%
54%
4%
0%17%
Uttarakhand
UP
Bihar
Jharkhand
West Bengal
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital An analysis of the industry wise distribution of the effluents generated shows that sugar, chemicals, paper are the three major sectors which generate ~ 80% of the total waste water/effluents. Industry wise details of effluent generation Type of Industry No. of units Water Consumption (MLD) Wastewater Generation (MLD) Chemical 27 210.9 97.8Distillery 33 78.8 37Food, Dairy & Beverage 22 11.2 6.5Pulp & Paper 67 306.3 201.4Sugar 67 304.8 96Textile, Bleaching & Dyeing 63 14.1 11.4Tannery 444 28.7 22.1Others 41 168.3 28.6Total 764 1,123 501
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital Industry wise details of effluent generation
20%
7%
1%
40%
19%
2%5%
6% Chemical
Distillery
Food, Dairy & Beverage
Pulp & Paper
Sugar
Textile, Bleaching & Dyeing
Tannery
Others
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital We analyze in more detail at the three states of Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal which generate 98% of the effluents
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Uttarakhand The state of Uttarakhand primarily has pulp and paper industries which account for 90% of the effluents being generated daily. Most of the waste water generated is discharged in the Ramganga riverine which ultimately leads to the main stem of River Ganga at Kannauj.
Industrywise discharge in the state of Uttarakhand Type of Industry Nos Waste water generationDistillery 3 2.2Pulp & Paper 30 116Sugar 9 10Total 42 128
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital Industrwise discharge in the state of Uttarakhand
2%
90%
8%
Distillery
Pulp & Paper
Sugar
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital Uttar Pradesh There are 687 industries discharging 269MLD waste water; of this Sugar(32%), Paper(25%) and chemicals(11%) are the major industrial sectors which discharged 70% of the total effluents generated in the state. While tanneries constitute the highest number of units in the state, their share is only 8% of the total discharge being generated daily– this implies that a large number of these units are small sized and concentrated in and around Kanpur making the river water in this region extremely toxic. Industry wise discharge of effluents
Category of Industry Number of
Industry Water Consumption
(MLD) Waste‐water
Generation (MLD) Chemical 20 113 29.6Distillery 27 69.2 33Food, Dairy & Beverage 15 6.3 3.8Others 35 90.7 18.1Pulp & Paper 33 96.3 68.1Sugar 56 278.4 85.7Textile, Bleaching & Dyeing 59 11.4 9Tannery 442 27.4 21.6Total 687 693 269
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital
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Industry wise discharge of effluents
11%
12%
2%
7%
25%
32%
3%8% Chemical
Distillery
Food, Dairy & Beverage
Others
Pulp & Paper
Sugar
Textile, Bleaching & Dyeing
Tannery
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital Also, note that apart from the main river Ganga, effluents are also discharged into the River Kali and Ramganga (key tributaries) which in turn join the main river at Kannauj. As regard Kali East, sugar, distillery and paper are the major industrial sectors discharging into the river. As regards Ramganga, sugar is the major sector which accounts for 50% of the dicharges. As seen in the table below, the Riverine Ramganga carried more industrial effluents than the main stream of the Ganga. Therefore, it is equally important to also treat the waste water being generated at the tributaries as well. Riverinewise waste water generated by industry Sector _______Ganga_________ _______Kali East_______ ______Ramganga_______
No. of units
Waste‐war Generation
(MLD) No. of units
Waste‐water Generation
(MLD) No. of units
Waste‐water Generation
(MLD) Chemical 15 21 3 3.8 2 4.8Distillery 10 8.7 10 13.15 7 11.2Food, Dairy & Beverage
12 1.9 2 1.5 1 0.5
Others 27 5.2 6 0.5 2 12.4Pulp & Paper 9 8.3 16 36.8 8 23Sugar 18 18.4 15 14.8 23 52.5Textile, Bleaching & Dyeing
57 6.7 1 0.8 1 1.5
Tannery 442 21.6 0 0 0 0Total 590 91.7 53 71.4 44 105.9
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital
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Riverinewise waste water generated by industry
34%
27%
39%
Ganga
Kali East
Ramganga
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital West Bengal In the state of West Bengal, the Ganga (called the Hooghly) receives 87MLD of wastewater from 22 industries. The chemical industry accounts for 70% of the total followed by Paper which is 20%. Sectorwise discharge in the state of West Bengal
Category of Industry Number of
Industry Water Consumption
(MLD) Wastewater
Generation (MLD) Chemical 6 85.9 61Distillery 2 3.3 1.8Food, Dairy & Beverage 5 4.2 2.3Others 3 2.5 1.8Pulp & Paper 3 15.9 17.3Sugar 2 1.1 0.6Textile, Bleaching & Dyeing 1 2.6 2.4Total 22 115.5 87.2
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital Recently, the Supreme Court has directed the National Green Tribunal to look into the effluents being discharged by the 764 GPI’s and potentially close them down if non compliance continues. The NGT is to report to the court every 6 months on actions taken by them. The NGT in turn has directed the CPB to: a) take action against the offending companies and b) place on its website site the criteria for defining an industry as ‘seriously polluting’ and ‘not so seriously polluting’ and to categorise them as red, green and orange depending on the pollutants discharged.
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Taj Trapezium Case Study India has earlier also witnessed the Supreme Court directed process on effluent treatment.The “Taj Trapeze” case provides interesting insight in how industries around Taj Mahal were compelled to reduce pollution through the courts order. During 1980’s it was found that industries surrounding Taj Mahal caused adverse effects leading to degradation of monuments. Based on various studies it was found that Mathura Refinery which is located 40km north‐west of Agra and the Ferozabad Glass Industry were distant sources of pollution. The other polluting industries as per the report of the Central Pollution Control Board were iron foundries, ferro‐alloyed industries, rubber‐processing, lime processing, engineering, chemical industry, brick factory and vehicles. As a result of petition the court issued series of order that directed polluting industries around Taj Trapezium Zone (a 10,400 sq.km trapezium‐shaped area covering the five districts of the Agra region) to undertake pollution control measures. The court directed the Uttar Pradesh Pollution Control Board to make a detailed list of all the industries and foundries active in the region and to make sure that pollution control measures are employed by these industries and foundries. Based on survey by UPCB board 511 industries were issued notices regarding pollution control. Out of the 511 industries, 212 did respond to the notice. The court ordered these industries to be shut down till necessary pollution control devices were installed. Meanwhile National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI) submitted a report that explored various alternatives like use of alternative clean fuel by polluting industries, creation of green belt around Taj or shifting of polluting industries outside the TTZ. Based on NEERI’s report the court directed GAIL to undertake study to assess demand for alternative clean fuel like natural gas as fuel in the industries. Also court asked corporation to look for alternative areas for allotment to polluting industries.
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25 November 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / Namami Ganga – Big opportunity for waste water treatment players
Drains/Nullahs – big concerns remain on these As per CPCB, 138 drains and nullahs discharge 6,087 MLD of waste water. These contribute to BOD (Biological oxygen Demand Load) of ~ 1000 tons/day. Drains in UP are most polluted due to presence of polluting industries. Drains/Nullahs across the Ganga river basin draining untreated water/effluents State No. Of Drains Flow (MLD) BOD Load (Tonnes / Day)Uttarakhand 14 440 42Uttar Pradesh 45 3,289 761Bihar 25 579 99West Bengal 54 1,779 97Total 124 6,087 999
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital Drains in Uttarakhand The CPCB norms defined bathing standard quality as water with BOD 3mg/l or less. We note water pollution level in Uttarakhand is significantly above prescribed standard. Total discharge by 14 drains was 440 MLD. Laksar drain (44%) and Rambha river (34 %) contribute 348 MLD of flow. Waste water through drains/nullahs in Uttarakhand Catchment Area Flow(MLD) BoD (mg/l)Uttarkashi and Devprayag 3 ‐Rishikesh 180 130Haridwar 60 1043Laksar 196 183
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital
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Schematic flow diagram showing point sources river ganga from Rishikesh to Lukhshar
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital
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Drains in Uttar Pradesh Forty five drains in Uttar Pradesh discharge 3,290 MLD of wastewater into the river Ganga. Discharge happens through cities like Bijnor, Garh, Gajrola , Babrala , Kannauj, Kanpur, Allahabad and Varanasi. We note BoD is significantly above prescribed limit in lower Ganga region (Kanpur‐ Varanasi stretch). Based on CPCB’s study, Sisamu Nallah at Kanpur, Pandu river, Rasulabad at Allahabad and Varuna/Khandwa drains at Varanasi are most polluted and require immediate attention. Waste water from drains/nullahs in Uttar Pradesh Catchment Area Flow(MLD) BoD (mg/l)Sukratal ‐ 3 Bijnor 148 193 Gajrola and Babrala 2 196Garh 46 115 Badaun 72 69 Anupshar 3 43 Kanpur 598 4,930 Unnao 78 317 Fatehpur to Raibarelly 1,491 47 Allahbad 294 600 Mirzapur 148 134 Varanasi 411 214
3,290 6,861
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital Schematic flow of river Ganga from Shukratal to Kannauj
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital
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25 November 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / Namami Ganga – Big opportunity for waste water treatment players
Schematic flow of river Ganga from Kanpur to Varanasi
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital Drains in Bihar In Bihar, 579 MLD of domestic and industrial wastewater is discharged to river Ganga through drains. Key polluting drains flow through Buxar, Patna, Munger, Bhagalpur and Kahalgaon. Pollution level was significantly above the prescribed level. Also note that Patna is the largest both in terms of volume and pollution load. Waste water from drains/nullahs in Bihar Catchment Area Flow(MLD) BoD (mg/l)Buxar 34 130 Patna 234 237 Munger 19 289 Bhagalpur 141 226 Kahalgaon 152 16
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital
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Schematic flow showing sources on river Ganga in Bihar:
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital
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Waste water discharge from drains in West Bengal 54 drains from West Bengal contributed 1,780 MLD of waste water discharge to river Ganga. In terms of load wise, number wise and load wise drains in left bank are higher than that of right bank. Drains on west bank of Ganga contribute 1,179 MLD of discharge and drain on right bank contributes 600 MLD of discharge. Catchment Area Flow(MLD) BoD (mg/l)Circular Canal adjacent to River Hooghly 320 22 Tolly Nala adjacent to Dahighata 380 71 Akhra Food Ghar Adjacent to Hooghly River 83 24 Najerganj Khal Sankrail 326 16 Hastings Ghat road 42 85 Chatra Khal, Beniapara, Serampore, 28.4 51 Telkal Ghat 21.9 138 130 Foreshore Road Martin Burn 17.6 141
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital
Schematic Image of drains emptying into the Ganga
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital The contribution of wastewater from 138 drains in Uttarakhand, U.P,Bihar and West Bengal is 6087 MLD and resultant BOD load is 999 Tonnes/day. In view of above facts and figures, it is concluded that following drain are contributing substantial pollution load to river Ganga:
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• Lakshar drain In Uttrakhand, • Chhoiya drain, Fuldheradrain, Badaunsewagedrain Sisamu Nala, Debka Nallah,
Wazidpur nallah,Permiyanallah at Kanpur, City Jail drain at Unnao, Panduriver at Fatehpur, Rasulabaddrain at Allahabad,Khandahadra in at Mirzapur,Nagwaand Varuna drain at Varanasi in UttarPradesh;
• Kurzi drain,collectorate drain in Patna, Jamunia drain at Bhaglpur, ITC drain at Munger in Bihar and
• Tolly Nallah, Dhankati drain, Nazerganj Khal in West Bengal. Key drains needing immediate attention (MLD) State Name of Drain MLD discharge Uttarakhand Lakshar 196 Uttar Pradesh Chhoiya 124 Uttar Pradesh Fuldera drain 32 Uttar Pradesh Badaun drain 30 Uttar Pradesh Sisamu Nala 197 Uttar Pradesh Debka Nallah ‐I 94 Uttar Pradesh Wazidpur Nalla 54 Uttar Pradesh Permiya Nalla 186 Uttar Pradesh City Jail Drain 36 Uttar Pradesh Pandu river 1396 Uttar Pradesh Rasulabad drain 112.5 Uttar Pradesh Khandaha drain 62 Uttar Pradesh Nagwa and Varuna 370 Bihar Kurzi 120 Bihar Jamunia drain 82 Bihar ITC drain 10 West Bengal Tolly Nallah 380 West Bengal Dhankati drain 65 West Bengal Nazerganj Khal 20 Total 3,566
Source: CPCB, Phillip Capital These total to a flow of 3,566MLD and would need an investment of Rs 180‐210bn for setting up the requisite waste water/effluent treatment plant.
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25 November 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / Namami Ganga – Big opportunity for waste water treatment players
Ganga Action Plan (GAP) – why has it not worked despite so much money having been spent already? The Ganga Action plan was launched by Shri. Rajeev Gandhi, the PM of India in 1986 with the objective of improving the water quality of the river Ganga. Phase 1 of the programme was completed in March, 2000. Pollution abatement works undertaken include interception and diversion of raw sewage, setting up of sewage treatment plants, creation of low cost sanitation facilities, setting up of electric/improved wood crematoria and river front development. The objective of Phase 1 was to improve the water quality of the river Ganga as per the following standards: • Bio‐chemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) ‐ 3mg/1maximum • Dissolved Oxygen (DO) ‐ 5mg/l minimum • Total Coliform Count ‐ 10,000 MPN per 100 ml • Faecal Coliform Count ‐ 2,500 MPN per 100 ml Phase‐II of the programme was approved in stages from 1993 onwards which included tributaries of the river Ganga namely, Yamuna, Gomti, Damodar and Mahananda. GAP Phase–II is currently under implementation. In 1996, the Ganga Action Plan was merged with National River Conservation Plan (NCRP). An expenditure of Rs. 10bn has been incurred so far on Ganga under GAP and sewage treatment capacity of ~1,100 MLD (million litres per day) has been created. The National Ganga River Basin Authority was constituted on February 20, 2009 as an empowered planning, monitoring and coordinating authority for the Ganga river under the Environment (Protection) Act, 1986. With this, the Ganga was also given the status of a National River. The first meeting of NGRBA was held on October 5, 2009, and it was decided that under Mission Clean Ganga “it will be ensured that by 2020 no untreated municipal sewage and industrial effluents flow into Ganga” and the investment required to create the necessary treatment and sewerage infrastructure will be shared suitably between the central and state governments. Funding would also come via the JNNURM programme.. However, little progress has resulted from the GAP I/GAP –II/NGRBA and the Ganga continues to be the fifth most polluted river in the world despite a 29 year old programme to clean up the same. Key reasons for failure of the previous programmes including: • Inadequate investments being made in setting up of treatment plants • Weak enforcement by the State Pollution Control boards on defaulters which
encourages them to continue without fear of any back lash from concerned authorities.
• Lack of civil society involvement in the overall cleanup process as people along the river have to be made aware that untreated waste/effluent is not to be dumped into the river.
• Non involvement of states. Lack of involvement and initiative being taken by the state governments for implementation of the programe
• Weak cooperation between the centre, state and local bodies on setting up treatment plants
• Low motivation and involvement of the state and central political parties to make a material change in the holy river
• Lack of adequate sanitation facilities, especially in rural India which has lead to defecation along the river front.
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• Continued immersion of idols in the river Ganga which the concerned authorities at the State and local body level have failed to check/control in any form.
• Failure to increase the flow of the river which is one of the key reasons why the pollutants are not being washed away – a lot of water is being diverted away from the main stream for irrigation purposes.
• Discharge of effluents by numerous small scale industries directly into the river which is very difficult to monitor by the pollution control boards. For eg. in Kanpur, there are 400 tanneries which discharge toxic waste water directly into the river without any treatment
• Sewerage treatment plants are not linked to all the drainage system in the cities – as a result the sewerage is dumped directly into the river rather than go to the plant for treatment.
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25 November 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / Namami Ganga – Big opportunity for waste water treatment players
Namami Ganga – What is it about and how is it progressing? Mr Modi in his election campaign had made the clean up of the Ganga one of his key promises. Accordingly, an Integrated Ganga Conservation Mission called “Namami Ganga” has been proposed to be set up and a sum of Rs. 20bn has been set aside for this purpose. The action plan involves various ministries viz. (a) WR, RD&GR, (b) Environment, Forests & Climate Change, (c) Shipping, (d) Tourism, (e) Urban Development, (f) Drinking Water and Sanitation and Rural Development. Following are steps propsed to be taken up under Namami Ganga.
I. Incentivizing states to undertake sewerage infrastructure projects by providing
central grants and expanding coverage of sewerage infrastructure to urban habitation around Ganga (cost estimated at Rs 510bn).
II. Also it involves clearing from open defecation Ganga bank by incentivizing Gram Panchayats at a cost of Rs 17bn as Central Share.
III. In order to manage Industrial discharge it proposed ensuring Zero Liquid discharge, rationalizing water tariff to encourage reuse and real time monitoring of water quality.
IV. Enforcing River Regulatory Zones on Ganga Banks and rationalising agricultural practices and promoting efficient irrigation methods.
The above solutions are largely long term in nature. In short terms following activities have been identified to be taken:
I. Scheme for rehabilitation and up‐gradation of existing STPs along Ganga and ensuring 100% sewerage infrastructure in identified towns alongside Ganga. Undertaking sewage treatment in open drains
II. Industrial pollution abatement at Kanpur on priority III. Support for preparation of DPRs and capacity building of urban local bodies IV. River Front Management for Ghat’s developments in selected cities and towns V. Action Plan for Char Dham Yatra –Public amenities, waste disposal and
sanitation VI. Capacity building of urban local bodies VII. Conservation of Flora and Acquatic Life VIII. Ensuring proper disposal of flowers and other puja material IX. Establishment of Ganga Establishment Centre.
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So how will so large a programme be funded? Under NGRBA (National Ganga River Basin Authority ) programme, the government has proposed various financing options and that may include public‐private partnership. The funding under the NGRBA includes government financing under EAP (Externally Aided Projects) and non EAP. Investment frameworks have been developed for selecting and implementing infrastructure investments in the four key sectors of – municipal wastewater, industrial pollution, solid waste management and river front management. The EAP head includes financing available from I. JICA financed GAP Phase II Project, and II. World Bank assisted NGRB Project. The non‐EAP head includes financing from: I. Plan allocation for NGRBA Program as approved by the Planning Commission and
the Ministry of Environment and Forests, and II. (ii) Scheduled Caste Sub‐Plan allocation approved by the Planning Commission
and the Ministry of Environment and Forests. Scope of Financing: The financing shall cover capex incured on operation of project management entities at Central and State Level, capacity building activities and communication, public participation activities. Under infra investment, capex shall pertain to muncipal waste water treatment and riverfront development and management. As per the financing plan Centre Government shall fund 100% of all capex undertaken for development of Ganga knowledge Centre, research studies and consultancies required for implementation of NGRBA programme, communication and public awareness programme. Capex on infrastructure Investment pertaining to pollution control; 50% will be provided by Central government,25% by State Government and balance 25% by Industries. All other expenditure shall be borne by Central and State government in ratio of 70:30. The O&M of infrastructure capex undertaken for “ Solid Waste Management” during first 5 years of commissioning shall be borne by State Government. From the 6th year onwards the Urban Local bodies will be responsible for O&M expenditure on infrastructure investment.
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NOTES
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Management
(91 22) 2300 2999Kinshuk Bharti Tiwari (Head – Institutional Equity) (91 22) 6667 9946
(91 22) 6667 9735
Research Engineering, Capital Goods Pharma
Dhawal Doshi (9122) 6667 9769 Ankur Sharma (9122) 6667 9759 Surya Patra (9122) 6667 9768Priya Ranjan (9122) 6667 9965 Hrishikesh Bhagat (9122) 6667 9986
Retail, Real EstateInfrastructure & IT Services Abhishek Ranganathan, CFA (9122) 6667 9952
Manish Agarwalla (9122) 6667 9962 Vibhor Singhal (9122) 6667 9949 Neha Garg (9122) 6667 9996Pradeep Agrawal (9122) 6667 9953 Varun Vijayan (9122) 6667 9992Paresh Jain (9122) 6667 9948 Technicals
Midcap Subodh Gupta, CMT (9122) 6667 9762Consumer, Media, Telecom Vikram Suryavanshi (9122) 6667 9951Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) 6667 9947 Production ManagerManish Pushkar, CFA (9122) 6667 9764 Metals Ganesh Deorukhkar (9122) 6667 9966
Dhawal Doshi (9122) 6667 9769Cement Ankit Gor (9122) 6667 9987 Database ManagerVaibhav Agarwal (9122) 6667 9967 Vishal Randive (9122) 6667 9944
Oil&Gas, Agri InputsEconomics Gauri Anand (9122) 6667 9943 Sr. Manager – Equities SupportAnjali Verma (9122) 6667 9969 Deepak Pareek (9122) 6667 9950 Rosie Ferns (9122) 6667 9971
Sales & Distribution Ashvin Patil (9122) 6667 9991 Sales Trader Zarine Damania (9122) 6667 9976Shubhangi Agrawal (9122) 6667 9964 Dilesh Doshi (9122) 6667 9747 Kishor Binwal (9122) 6667 9989 Suniil Pandit (9122) 6667 9745Sidharth Agrawal (9122) 6667 9934 ExecutionBhavin Shah (9122) 6667 9974 Mayur Shah (9122) 6667 9945Dipesh Sohani (9122) 6667 9756
Corporate Communications
Vineet Bhatnagar (Managing Director)
Jignesh Shah (Head – Equity Derivatives)
Automobiles
Banking, NBFCs
Contact Information (Regional Member Companies)
SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd
250 North Bridge Road, #06‐00 Raffles City Tower, Singapore 179101
Tel : (65) 6533 6001 Fax: (65) 6535 3834 www.phillip.com.sg
MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B‐3‐6 Block B Level 3, Megan Avenue II,
No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur Tel (60) 3 2162 8841 Fax (60) 3 2166 5099
www.poems.com.my
HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd
11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) 2277 6600 Fax: (852) 2868 5307
www.phillip.com.hk
JAPAN Phillip Securities Japan, Ltd
4‐2 Nihonbashi Kabutocho, Chuo‐ku Tokyo 103‐0026
Tel: (81) 3 3666 2101 Fax: (81) 3 3664 0141 www.phillip.co.jp
INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia
ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A, Jakarta 10220, Indonesia
Tel (62) 21 5790 0800 Fax: (62) 21 5790 0809 www.phillip.co.id
CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd.
No 550 Yan An East Road, Ocean Tower Unit 2318 Shanghai 200 001
Tel (86) 21 5169 9200 Fax: (86) 21 6351 2940 www.phillip.com.cn
THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd.
15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Thailand
Tel (66) 2 2268 0999 Fax: (66) 2 2268 0921 www.phillip.co.th
FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Ltd.
3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance 75008 Paris France
Tel (33) 1 4563 3100 Fax : (33) 1 4563 6017 www.kingandshaxson.com
UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Ltd.
6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street London, EC4N 6AS
Tel (44) 20 7929 5300 Fax: (44) 20 7283 6835 www.kingandshaxson.com
UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc.
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Chicago, IL 60604 USA Tel (1) 312 356 9000 Fax: (1) 312 356 9005
AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia
Level 37, 530 Collins Street Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia
Tel: (61) 3 9629 8380 Fax: (61) 3 9614 8309 www.phillipcapital.com.au
SRI LANKA Asha Phillip Securities Limited
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INDIA PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited
No. 1, 18th Floor, Urmi Estate, 95 Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel West, Mumbai 400013 Tel: (9122) 2300 2999 Fax: (9122) 6667 9955 www.phillipcapital.in
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