pdd 2016 lee peters - lessons from a jedi schedule

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Lessons from aJedi Scheduling Master

– what would Yoda teach us?

Lee A. Peters, MSCE, PE and John L. Homer, MSCE, PE

Introduction 1 of 6

• Become a Scheduling Jedi – be more than a competent scheduler – be a Master.

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Introduction 2 of 6

• Schedulers grow and develop through a series of projects without the guidance of a Master Scheduler.

• Development is largely dependent on your personal ability to reflect, to analyze, and to critically examine your own performance.

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Introduction 3 of 6

• Delivering required results is brutal in our world of intense, complex, grueling projects.

• Come sit at the feet of Masters who follow Yoda’s example to teach lessons of victory for becoming a scheduling master.

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Introduction 4 of 6

• Explore the skills and lessons of a Scheduling Master and learn the means to develop them.

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Introduction 5 of 6

• Yoda is more than a Master who allows you to watch and learn as he works.

• Yoda actively encourages, teaches, preaches, and drills knowledge, skills, attitudes, and beliefs of a Jedi Master.

• Yoda also allowed failure.

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Lesson – what do you do when you observe someone planting the sword in the ground?

Introduction 6 of 6

• Like Yoda, actively encourage, teach, and drill the knowledge, skills, attitudes and beliefs of a Jedi – a Scheduling Master.

• How do you do it?

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LESSON – tough to teach, to coach, to mentor. Most say ‘if I am not …’

Learning Objectives1 of 3

• Hear key lessons of project scheduling success painfully learned in the battle grounds of intense, complex, tortuous projects!

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• Absorb, internalize, and apply these lessons to concentrate time and talent on neutralizing dangerous threats, gaining great rewards, or wining decisive challenges in your own schedules!

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• Use each lesson to reflect on your personal project experience to derive your own lessons of Scheduling Mastery … be victorious on your most extreme projects.

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Narrative 1 of 7

• To produce project results reliably requires more than competence … it requires mastery.

• A Scheduling Master integrates:– fundamentals of scheduling– with leading a project team– with catalyzing the momentum of a project.

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Narrative 2 of 7

• We focus on lessons learned from extensive experience in building, training and guiding projects to success.

• Our experience extends from the jungles of Vietnam through many types of construction projects to product development in three industries and to the organization of international sporting events.

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Narrative 3 of 7

• The mantra of a Scheduling Master then becomes the imperatives ‘Results, Scope, Performance’.

• We continue with the core concepts of establishing a culture, an environment, surrounding project performance, influencing the entire project community.

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Narrative 4 of 7

• Emphasize communicating, planning, measuring, and feeding back throughout the project process.

• Successful project examples describe establishing the culture, adopting objectives, measuring performance and accomplishing the results.

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Narrative 5 of 7

• A huge number of things must go right for a project to succeed.

• Missing only one of the many opportunities necessary for success can cause catastrophic failure.

• Scheduling is the key to getting all things right!

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Narrative 6 of 7

• Scheduling only addresses getting things done at the right time. This can be:– wrong things done right at the right time. – or the right things done wrong at the right time– OR it can be the right things done right at the

wrong time• Buried under scheduling are the right

things done right!

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LESSON

Narrative7 of 7

• Schedulers have to focus on:– the right things done – effectiveness –

scope, work breakdown – things done right – efficiency – performance,

work methods– the right things done right at the right time –

efficacy – schedules (of many types).

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LESSON – not just when things are done

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Time is …

• Time is the ONLY PERISHABLE RESOURCE

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Project Fundamentals1 of 2

• Results – the deliverable

• Scope – the work• Performance –

accomplishing the work

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LESSON – Three Fundamentals

Project Fundamentals2 of 2

• Only in ‘performance,’ do we encompass doing the right things the right way at the right time.

• Performance completes the scope – the work required to produce the result.

• Results, Scope, and Performance– for projects, we reduce Risk – reduce uncertainty

within both positive or opportunities and negative or threats.

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LESSON – we create certainty

Project Fundamental: Result 1 of 2

• Our mission, our purpose, and our gestalt as project teams is delivering required results.

• Success only happens with required results• (Success does not always happen with the

results but without the results, there is no success!)

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LESSON

Project Fundamental:Result 2 of 2

• Sometimes you have to go from an end to a beginning. – Backward scheduling tends to be more prayer

than plan!• Begin with the end in sight – preach the

result and the benefits to the client, to the team, to everyone else.

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Project Fundamental:Scope 1 of 4

• Scope is the first step in scheduling – doing the right things – effectiveness.– The scope of that work should be sufficient to

produce the required results – no more and not less.

– Work-breakdown-structure is crucial to defining scope.

– What we miss in ‘deliverable-based scope’ is the scope!

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• Scope is the amount or the number of work items that has to be completed to produce the results.

• By carefully defining scope, we gain effectiveness – doing the right things and only the right things.

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If you are …, when you are scheduling; you are going to

make a mistake• Breaking work down• Assigning crew sizes• Determining work

methods• Figuring durations• Are there others?

• Look at the Activity– It is possible to do all this

while scheduling if you are disciplined

• Then look at the relationship

• Leave tracks

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LESSON – scheduling is both communal and communicative.


• Scheduling work is similar to conducting an orchestra.– In scheduling, we

move work across the resource

– or we move resource across the work.

• The art is determining– What work– How much Work– Is to be accomplished

in which way– Where– By which resource– For how long– When– In what sequence

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• WBS allows us to estimate:– Team or crew is necessary to do that work in

that duration– Duration – how long the work will take– Effort – labor hours for each work item– Cost estimate – a multiple of labor hours

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Frozen Scope

• Frozen scope and the abominable snowman are alike:– they are both myths– and they both melt

when sufficient heat is applied.

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Measure Effectiveness 1of 4

• Effectiveness is doing right things• We ensure the piece of scope is

necessary work. • We have to be sure we only do what is

required to produce the result – nothing more.

• Just what is that work?

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LESSON

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Measure Effectiveness2 of 4

• Ask others to glean the work list.

• Measure the work-not-completed when the activity is done.

• Listen to complaints and adjust the work list.

• Review the work with team members

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Measure Effectiveness3 of 4

• Measure changes in scope, both number and magnitude. – We can also put durations and labor hours

against each changed work item.– Measure the impact on scope

by the changed work.– Change is a measure of

the quality of scope definition and quality of work-breakdown-structure.

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LESSON

Measure Effectiveness 4 of 4

• What is your change within a project?

• Change of more than 5% in total – labor hours– duration– number of activities– or cost

• Change is an indicator of poor project methodology.

• Change most likely caused by lack of investment in planning

• Change is a result of not taking time to plan, to schedule.

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LESSON

Project Fundamental –Performance

• Effort and duration – efficiency • Performance is governed by the methods

or procedures of work.

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A second time:Performance and Risk

• Only in ‘performance,’ do we encompass doing the right things the right way at the right time.

• Performance completes the scope – the work required to produce the result.

• Risk is the uncertainty within Results, Scope, and Performance– both positive or opportunities and negative or threats.– Uncertainty!– Our job is to make things certain!

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Methods1 of 6

• Methods depend on– materials (how much value has been added to

the material as well as the technology (PVC pipe versus copper) of the material?)

– tools and equipment– skill of the people (not just the number)– supervision (quantity, quality, planning skill,

teaching skill)– information (plans, drawings, research,

procedures, technology)

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Crew

Information

Materials / Parts

Tools &Equipment

Supervision

=

Management

Work

LESSON Methods2 of 6

• Change any single resource changes the method changes the performance.

• Change the performance and the duration changes.

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LESSON

Methods3 of 6

• Methods control labor hours of work – the efficiency of doing things right.

• Methods are controlled by the mix of resources producing work at an assumed rate.

• Amount of work divided by rate of work produces duration of work.– Trouble is the rate varies within each operation

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Methods4 of 6

• We must be certain we choose– right methods– people skilled in that

method– right resources– right expectations– to do the right work.

• Do you hear all those rights?– right way, right skills,

right expectations, right resources, and at the right time, in order to complete right work.

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LESSON

Methods5 of 6

• Typically, project teams focus on schedule and pretend the underlying methods are not our problem.– We say people are empowered to fix problems.– But we do not enable people with resources– Or we outsource it, saying that is the sub’s

challenge• Assure that the people are enabled – given

the resources and skills to do the work.

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Methods6 of 6

• Remember this:• much project risk – uncertainty• lurks within resource

– Quality (experience, training, skill)– Quantity (availability)– Price (value)– Productivity (rate of quality work)

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Provisional Project Proverb

• "In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.“

• Dwight D. Eisenhower

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METHOD PRODUCTIVITY

• Labor Hours is the Currency of Projects• What are the Assumptions for Productivity in

each Method?– Uncertainty in the Labor Plan? Probably under 25%.

• What are the assumptions for Productivity for each Method?– Are these valid?

• What is the opportunity in knowing the productivity of a Method?

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Measuring Efficiency

• We can determine our efficiency of doing things right– actual labor hours– actual durations– actual progress– comparing actual against hours of completed

work earned and scheduled hours • earned hours (earned value) – planned hours of

completed work.

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Scheduling is Efficacy

• Doing the right work• the right way (with right people, materials,

tools, information, sufficient time)• at the right time – per the schedule!

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Progress Reporting

• Project teams detest progress reporting because it vividly demonstrates their lack of progress.

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Measure and Forecast

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Scope / Progress Labor Hours Duration

Required based on Re-casting

Labor Hours required to complete remaining Work

Time required to complete remaining Work

Required based on Variance

Work Items Remaining x Variance

Labor Hours Remaining x Variance

Time Remaining x Variance

Remaining Work Items Left to be Completed

Labor Hours Remaining Time Remaining

Earned Labor Hours Earned based on Progress

Time Earned based on Progress

Other Variances

Earned vs ScheduledScheduled vs Actual

Scheduled vs Actual

Variance Completed vs Scheduled

Earned vs Actual Scheduled Earned vs Actual

Scheduled Work Items Scheduled to be Completed

Labor Hours Scheduled to be Used

Time Scheduled to be Used

Actual Work Items Competed

Labor Hours Used Time Elapsed

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Early Warning

• Be sensitive to:– Rates of Performance– Quality of Work – Labor Hours Consumed– Duration Consumed– Means and Methods Used

versus Planned– Impact of Changes –

individual and collective

– Labor Hours Remaining– Duration Remaining– Work Remaining– Labor Hours Required to

Complete– Duration Required to

Complete

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Scheduling is acommunal activity.

• Schedules are more important as communication tools than as a control tool.

• Use it to communicate.• It is helpful to walk the

schedule with the players.

• Many times.

• Walk by– Area - territory– Type of work -

technology– Entity doing work -

person– Time

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LESSON

Sticky-Path-MethodSM

• and do the Sticky-ShuffleSM

• Schedules cannot be seen in a computer. • Schedules cannot be read on paper.• Only Schedules on walls can be walked.• Schedules should be meaningful to person

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LESSON

Do the Sticky Shuffleas a community to know:

• for each action.– What work– How much work– Accomplished which way– Where– By whom– With what– For how long– When

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Communal

• Scheduling is a Communal Activity• 1st Corollary

– The more people involved in scheduling the more committed people are to meeting the schedule.

• 2nd Corollary– The more useable the schedule the greater

the commitment.

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The Sanctity of the Schedule

• If you cannot meet the schedule, what schedule can you meet?

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Master of Chaos

• Our Product – the project schedule• Our Purpose – To Make Delivery of

Required Results Predictable– To make the delivery– Of the required results– certain.

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LESSON

Magical Organizers of Uncertainty

• Schedules Organize Chaos– to make project delivery predictable!

• Consider a project without a– work breakdown structure– schedule

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Our Real Job

• Reduce Uncertainty– IN EACH of our 500 (or 1000) project activities

• Make– Duration (how long will it take?)– Effort (how much work will it take? labor and

equipment hours)– Cost (production cost is variable)

• Certain (within a range)!

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If I had eight hours tochop down a tree, I’dspend six sharpeningmy axe.

Abraham Lincoln

Should Predict the Weather

• We have a 30% probability of finishing in eight months and a 100% probability of finishing in twelve.

• Our triple point estimates– Just what is the probability of the reasonable expectancy?– How do you know?– What is the probability for the worst case?– The best case??

• Too frequently management is so impatient to start there is not sufficient time given to plan the 500 activities once much less three times.

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CertainWithin a Range

• Range for Duration, Effort, Cost– Reasonable Pessimistic – 90% less than (worst

case – 2 std deviations)– Reasonable Optimistic – 90% greater than (best

case – 2 std deviations)– Reasonable Expected – most likely case – 70% 1

std deviation positive. • For each of the 500 activities

– Not Normal Distributions, not even close.

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LESSON

Time Risk

• Two components– duration (how long the activity takes) which variation

is in productivity– labor effort (hours required by the method) which

variation is also in productivity– just how much labor (and/or equipment hours) is

required or actually produces the outcome / deliverable of that activity.

• Impact costs– Duration impacts variable overhead expense– Productivity impacts labor and equipment costs

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Search Systematically

• For Risk – for Uncertainty– Threats – Opportunities

• For Unpredictable Variation– 10 to 20% of activities with unpredictable

variation can account for 90% of total deviation – these are known activities.

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LESSON64

Activities with

Uncertainty

Value of Activities in a million dollar

project

Amount of

Variation

Worst Case Amount of Uncertainty

Amount of Variation in total budget.

5% $50,000 +500% $250,000 57% 25%

15% $150,000 +100% $150,000 34% 15%

80% $800,000 +5% $40,000 9% 5%

5% OF ALL ACTIVITIES ACCOUNT FOR 50% OF THE RISK

Search Continuously Search Concurrently

• Throughout– Planning– Estimating– Scheduling– Procuring– Executing– Controlling– Learning

• Time Risk is everywhere.

• Remember our purpose is to create Certainty

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The planning pay off

• Five to ten to one.• For every time unit spent is planning …• five to ten time units are saved in

execution

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LESSON

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Over Planning

• No project has ever failed from being over-planned.

• Projects have failed from being too rigid.

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LESSON

Being too Rigid

• Projects will fail from being too rigid.

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Possible Project Proverbon EXECUTION

• No battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy. — Field Marshal Helmuth Carl Bernard von Moltke

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Opportunities and Threats

• When you find Uncertainty– You find Both

• Opportunity• Threat

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Impact on Each Other

• What is the impact of uncertainty in each dimension on the other?– Does an increase in duration increase cost?– Decrease in duration reduce cost?– Decrease in quality reduce duration?– Decrease in quality change cost? – How do they change as a function of each

other and as a function of Scope.

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Time to the Deadline

90% of the work takes place after 50% of the time to deadline has passed.

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UnreasonableDeadlines

• You can get commitment from anyone to an unreasonable deadline, but can't bully them into meeting it.

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Absurd deadlines

• The more absurd the deadline, the more the cost to try to meet it.

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Failsafe Deadlines

• Create failsafe deadlines – people underestimate the amount of work required.

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Project Fuel

• Labor hours is the currency of a project.– Hours are spent to perform work and make

progress.• Money is project fuel• Decisions are the lubricant

– Include decisions in your schedule

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LESSON

Uncertainty in TEAMWORK

• Does each of your support team have the skills, knowledge, and attitude required to complete their part of the scope and contribute to project team work?

• How will the attitudes and competencies of the managers and supervisors impact Duration and Labor Hours?

• How will leadership of the organization and of the project impact Duration and Labor Hours

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• The more desperate the situation, the more optimistic the project team.

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Communicate, communicate, communicate

• No project has ever failed from over-communication.

• You can not over–communicate

• Till you are sick and then twice as much.

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It is what we know

• It ain't what we don't know that bites us, it's what we know and don't do!

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Incentive Time

• does the fee buy on-time delivery or just delivery?

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Early Delivery Time

• Surprise! Surprise! The paper mill will complete four months early.

• What does it matter that the operating team will not complete their training and be ready?

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Time is the river of project progress.

• Skillful navigation skipping from one time to the next delivers a project result in the shortest duration.

• This makes the Project Manager appear to be a river walker - a traveler on time, in time, of time, between time.

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Thank you

• ProjectLEADER.com• [email protected]• 317-873-0086

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