Peace III Consortium, Monaghan

The Northern IrelandPeace Monitoring Report

Paul Nolan

Tuesday 18th September 2012

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Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Report

Three sponsors:Community Relations CouncilJoseph Rowntree Charitable TrustJoseph Rowntree Foundation

What are we trying to measure?

How extensive is the peace?How durable is it?Is it a permanent peace or a generational

truce?What is the quality of the peace?What might renew the violence?What lessons are there for elsewhere?

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Indicator framework: 4 domains

The sense of securityEqualityPolitical progressCohesion and sharing

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1. The political institutions are secure5

The political institutions are secure

All five main parties operate within ‘three strand’ consensus

The present arrangement is supported by 58% of population as first choice

The impact of spoiler groups has been to consolidate the political arrangements

Yearbook of Peace Processes 2011

82 armed conflicts brought to an end in recent decades

34% of these in peace agreementsOf the 14 for which there are complete figures: - 4 improved on UN Human Development Index (Croatia, Rwanda, Angola, El Salvador) - 10 disimproved(incl. S. Africa, Nicaragua)

Source: Escola de Cultura de Pau, Barcelona

2.

The level of violence is down

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2. The level of violence is down

Causes of death in 2011:Security-related: 1Road deaths: 59Alcohol: 284Suicide: 313

Security-related deaths

Security statistics 1994-2011

Timeline 1994 - 2011

Decrease in sectarian and racist crime

Crime: the risk of being a victimSources: British Crime Survey/NI Crime Survey

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3.

Paramilitarism remains a threat

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Paramilitarism remains a threat

Casualties of paramilitary attacks

2010 2011

Casualties of republican attacks 48 46

Casualties of loyalist attacks 46 27

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Paramiltarism remains a threat

2010 2011

Bombings 90 64

Shootings 81 60

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Paramilitarism still a threat

“Taking assaults and shootings together, until 2010 loyalists have caused more casualties than republicans”

- IMC Final Report, 2011

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Paramilitary shootings19

Paramilitary assaults20

Paramilitary assaults

Clearance rate for paramilitary attacks 2011: 4%

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4.

The policing deal is not secure

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The policing deal is not secure

Good news on policing:

Support for PSNI:2003 73%2011 84%

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Catholics in the PSNI24

Catholics in the PSNI25

The policing deal is not secure

Religious breakdown of officers who leave the PSNI early 2001-2011

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Catholics Protestants Undetermined

Number who left with less than 5 years

154 (56.2%)

108 (39.4%)

12 (4.4%)

Number who left with less than 1 year

38 (57.8%) 24 (36.4%) 4 (6.0%)

The policing deal is not secure

Audit Office report:304 former RUC rehired through agency63 in Intelligence59 in Serious Crime19 in Specialist Operations

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The policing deal is not secure

The ‘only just’ nature of the Catholic percentage

The higher numbers leavingThe re-introduction of former RUCThe canteen culture that survivesThe characteristics of the Catholic intakeThe role of MI5 and covert policingThe linkage to trust in the Police Ombudsman

OfficeThe dissident attacks on Catholic police

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5.

The recession is affecting the equality agenda

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Proportion of households below 60% of median income

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Catholic and Protestant inequalities: deprivation indicators (Family Resources Survey,2009/10)

Deprivation measure Protestant

Catholic Other

Unable to develop hobby or leisure activity

30 59 11

Does not have household contents insurance

36 51 13

Unable to replace/repair broken electrical goods

39 53 8

Unable to heat home 31 62 7

Behind in one or more household bill

27 66 7

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Education and social mobility

A socially disadvantaged pupil in a Catholic Maintained school will have a 1 in 5 chance of going to university, compared to a Protestant in a Controlled school who will only have a 1 in 10 chance.

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The attainment gap

2+ A-levels ( inc. equivalent):

Rural Catholic girls (not FSME): 74.2%Urban Protestant boys (FSME) : 11.6%

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The compound effect

2+ A-levels:

Rural Catholic girls (FSME): 45.4%Urban Protestant boys (non-FSME): 41.6%

The qualifications gap

Higher Education Further Education

Catholics 60% 40%

Protestants 40% 60%

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Demography36

Demography: School Census 2010/11

Catholics 50.8%Protestants 37.7%Other 11.5%

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Into the labour market

Increases in absolute numbers of those of working age entering the labour market in the 1990-2009 period

18,000 Protestants (4%)114,000 Catholics (30%)

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Rebalancing the labour market 39

NICS staffing

Catholic Protestant

2001 42.9% 57.1%

2011 49.1% 50.9%

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NICS staffing

Increase in Catholic representation 2001-2011

Grades 6/7 17.3%

Grade 5 10.5%

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The escalator stops42

Who is at the bottom?

In percentage terms, more Protestant males than Catholic males leave school without obtaining 5 good GCSEs (49% versus 46%), because of the larger number of Catholics in this age cohort, there are, in terms of absolute numbers, slightly more Catholics than Protestants under-achieving at this level (2,608 versus 2,363).

- Sir Robert Salisbury: Report on Literacy and Numeracy in Northern Ireland,2011

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6.

Youth unemployment is potentially destabilising

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Unemployment

Northern Ireland: 8.2%UK average: 8.1%European Union: 10.4%Republic of Ireland: 14.8%

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Youth unemployment (18-24)

September 2012 NI: 23.5% UK: 19.3%

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Youth unemployment in Europe, August 2012

Country %

Spain 52.7

Greece 51.9

Italy 35.3

France 22.6

Germany 7.9

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Internal ethnic differentials

Black youth unemployment in the UK

2008: 28.8% 2011: 55.9%

Source: Office of National Statistics, Q4 2011

Plastic bullets held by Metropolitan Police

1st July 2011 700 baton rounds held6th August 2011 London riots begin1st December 2011 10,024 baton rounds

held

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Stop and search

73% of those brought before the courts for attacking police in the August riots had been subjected to stop and search in the previous 12 months.

Percentage of stop and search leading to arrest: 6%

New target for Metropolitan Police: 20%

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Stop and search in NI

45,394 persons stopped, searched and/or questioned

1,705 arrests40% in the 18-25 age groupLess than 4%

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A new, confident, and neutral urban culture has emerged

Those who see town centres as safe and welcoming

On a scale of 1 to 10, those who score this at 6 or above:

2005: 31%2010: 47%

Source: NILT

Belfast –city of festivals

Single identity festival/event: 12Ethnic/international: 11LGBT: 2Open/non-specific: 29

Source: Belfast Festival Forum

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Northern Ireland remains a very divided society

The two political traditions

The two political traditions

Social divisions

90% of social housing is single identity93.5% of school enrolments in either

Protestant or Catholic schools

But…..

Social housing accounts for only 16% of total10.8% of all Catholics attending a grammar

school do so in controlled schools2.5% of Protestant children enrolled in

Catholic schools – twice as many as a decade ago

The dynamic for change

The Bain Report (2006)QUB Sharing Education Programme

(launched 2007)Sustainable Schools Policy (2009): -326 out of 879 schools with fewer than 100

pupils -107 out of 228 post-primaries with fewer

than 600 pupilsNI Assembly Sharing Education Working

Group (2011)

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There has been no strategy for reconciliation

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Who funds peacebuilding?

European Union Peace Funds

59%

International Fund for Ireland

25%

Irish government

5%

Total

89%

The long journey towards a community relations policy

1998 Belfast/Good Friday Agreement2002 Harbinson Report2003 Shared Future consultation document2005 A Shared Future published2009 SF and DUP alternatives2010 Cohesion, Sharing and Integration

consultation2012 Programme for Government

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No solution has been found for dealing with the past

The dilemma of peace processes

“You can have peace or you can have justice, but you cannot have both”

- Amos Oz

Dealing with the past

Big problem – big solution?

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Mahon and Saville: the end of the big bang approach

Saville Inquiry Mahon Inquiry

Cost £191.5m £250m

Duration 12 years 13 years

Number of pages 5,000 3,270

Oral witnesses 922 400

Other scenarios

Historical documentation centreSlow and partial disclosuresTroubles events merge with other

commemorationsProsecutions ignite violenceGeneral amnesty

One Northern Ireland?

Do we ever go beyond ‘us’ and ‘them’Does NI ever experience itself as an

‘imagined community’?

The experience of devolution

The fact that between 53% (QUB) and 58% (NILT) of people now see devolved government as their preferred first choice is leading to a quite radical shift in the ways in which religious, national and political identities are aligned.

The new Northern Ireland?