Peace: the Future

What is Peace?

1. The absence of war

The world has never been so peaceful

Thisis not

thepast

Thisis

Early human societies:

~25%

20th century: <4%

recent decades: <2%

What percentage of people

lose their lives due to war?

History’s trend has been a smaller and smaller

percentage of the population engaged in war.

And a smaller percentage of deathsfor both soldiers and civilians.

This will continue

4

types of conflict

*Jonathan Schell

Total War

1

Total War

WWI

WWII

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

The early 20th century was humanity’s

experiment in gazing as closely as possible

to the brink of destruction,

and then pulling back.

People’s War

2

Total War

WWI

WWII

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

People’sWarAmerican

Revolution

Terrorism

3

Total War

WWI

WWII

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

People’sWarAmerican

Revolution

Terrorism

Terrorism,

by definition,is never as bad as it

seems.

It is a tactic used by non-state actors

too weak to wage Total War or People’s War

Thus, its rise can be seen as a (comparatively) positive

trend:

it signals a decline in the more violent types of

conflict.

Nonviolence

4

Nonviolence

=

Satyāgraha

( “ Truth-force ” )

Violence sometimes achieves short-term objectives, but

always leaves negative long-term consequences.

Short-term Long-term

Violence Sometimes works Never works

Nonviolence

Sometimes works Always works

Carnation revolution – PortugalPeople Power revolution – Philippines

Velvet revolution – CzechBulldozer revolution – Serbia

Rose revolution – GeorgiaOrange revolution – Ukraine

Purple revolution – IraqGreen revolution – Iran

Tulip revolution – KyrgyzstanCedar revolution – Lebanon

Total War

WWI

WWII

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

People’sWarAmerican

Revolution

Terrorism

Nonviolence

So, why the shift?

Total WarPeople’s

WarTerrorism

Nonviolence

End of colonialism

End of the Cold War

Maps & borders codified

State failure hurts everyone

Global economic ties

Biggest reason:

The increase in the value of each

human life.

The realization that all are equal.

What is Peace?

Again,

1. The absence of war

2. Basic needs met.

Percentage of world’s population living in extreme

poverty

3. Wealth/abundance

4. HealthInfant mortality rate

5. Equality

6. Freedom for all /equality of opportunity

/ democracy / choice

7. Education /creative fulfillment

for all

World literacy rate today: 83%

1970: 63%

About 175,000 new blogs are created each day

8. Universal brotherhood

9. Utopia.Everything is

perfect!

This is impossibl

e

Peace is

an ever-recedinggoal

This is a good thing. It means our standards

keep improving!

"People who live in a Golden Age usually go around complaining how yellow everything looks."

- poet Randall Jarrell

We are destined for peace.

But it’s not a single endpoint.

By the standards of history, many parts of the

world are already at peace.

So, the future of peace?

JesseRichards

www.

secretpeace.com