peak oil and climate change 27 may 2013 u3a moruya jenny goldie, act peak oil national president,...
TRANSCRIPT
PEAK OIL AND CLIMATE CHANGE
27 May 2013 U3A Moruya
Jenny Goldie, ACT Peak Oil
National President, SPA
Oil and food production
Oil is needed to manufacture fertiliser and operate farm machinery, for irrigation and transportation, for raising livestock and producing pesticides.
What is peak oil?
Peak Oil is the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area…
(Colin Campbell ASPO)
What is peak oil?
M King Hubberd predicted in 1956 that US oil production would peak in 1971. (It peaked 1970).
When was peak conventional oil?
From 2005 onwards, conventional crude-oil production has not risen to match increasing demand. (2010 report)
Australia’s suppressed report
“The outlook …is for a long decline in oil production to begin in 2017...”
Report 117: Transport Energy Futures -- Long Term Oil Supply Trends and Projections.
The 2009 report was prepared for the Minister for Infrastructure Anthony Albanese by Dr David Gargett of the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE).
Picture: John TiedemanDaily Telegraph
Coming shortages?
US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015
Shortfall could reach 10m barrels a
day, report says
(11 April 2010)
German military warning
A 2011study by a German military think tank warned that within 10 years oil shortages may collapse global economy.
“Many will not want to hear but peak oil is unavoidable.”
NRMA/Blackburn 2013 Report: “Australia’s Liquid Fuel Security”
“…without an adequate supply of liquid fuels we could not access health services
food production and distribution would be severely curtailed
most businesses could not operate
our personal and much of the public transportation system could not function
and our Defence Forces could not operate.
Essentially, our society as we know it would cease to function.”
Alternatives to conventional oil
Unconventional oil
Deep waterTar sandsArcticUltra-deep pre-salt Shale oilHeavy oil
BiofuelsCornSugarAlgae
BP Energy Outlook 2030
High prices and technological innovation have unlocked vast unconventional resources in the US, reversing the trend of falling output and altering global energy balances.
BP Energy Outlook 2013
In 2012, 24% of US oil production was from tight oil
In 2012, 37% of natural gas was from shale
These resources have boosted gas output by nearly 20% and oil by 30% in the past five years.
Energy Information Agency (EIA) 2013 report. Trends to 2040
Oil production rises, reducing net imports
US becomes net natural gas exporter Coal’s share of electric power generation
fallsGasoline consumption declines while
diesel fuel use growsNatural gas consumption grows in
industrial and electric power sectorsRenewable fuel use grows at a faster
rate than fossil fuel use
IEA World Energy Outlook 2012
“…the United States becomes a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and is almost self-sufficient in energy, in net terms, by 2035. North America emerges as a net oil exporter, accelerating the switch in direction of international oil trade, with almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports being drawn to Asia by 2035.”
IEA World Energy Outlook 2012
Global oil demand exceeds 99 mb/d in 2035… A surge in unconventional and deepwater oil boosts non-OPEC supply over the current decade, but the world relies increasingly on OPEC after 2020.
Iraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global oil production to 2035 and becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia.
Energy Watch Group 2013 report
Peak Oil – the maximum sustainable rate of global oil production – happened in 2012.
“…coal and gas production will reach their respective production peaks around 2020…”
“Therefore, the decline of oil production – which is expected to start soon – will lead to a rising energy gap which will become too large to be filled by natural gas and/or coal.”
Decline or not?
EWG expects a 40per cent decline in oil production by 2030
IEA expects to meet increased demand of 99mbd in 2035
Courtesy Ian Dunlop
Australia’s oil shortfall an increasing financial burdenA$30--‐60billion
Australia’s oil supply shortfall - $30-60 b by 2020
But can we use all fossil fuels?
“We can emit 565 more gigatons of carbon dioxide and stay below 2°C of warming …Burning the fossil fuel that corporations now have in their reserves would result in emitting 2,795 gigatons of carbon dioxide – five times the safe amount.
Bill McKibben 350.org
Courtesy Ian Dunlop
Solutions
Urban re-design - high density integrated with efficient public transport
- decentralisation of work centres
Rail becomes major transport mode – for high-speed passengers and freight
Electricity from clean energy
Halt to freeway and airport construction
Reduced air travel - unless quality biofuels emerge
Localised food production
Major IT innovation to reduce ecological footprint – built around high speed broadband
Enhanced resource productivity -zero waste design
Thank you!
Recommended websites:
http://act-peakoil.org/
http://www.peakoil.net/
http://www.aspo-australia.org.au/
http://www.energybulletin.net/
http://www.postcarbon.org/