peak oil, global climate change and sustainability dr. robert brecha physics dept. univ. of dayton...
TRANSCRIPT
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Peak Oil, Global Climate Change and SustainabilityDr. Robert BrechaPhysics Dept.Univ. of DaytonHonors Seminar of Metropolitan Dayton, Oct. 12, 2006
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OutlineEcological footprintFossil fuel resources and useGlobal climate changeEconomicsSocial justice
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How big are you?Basal metabolic rate 1800 kcal/dayEquivalent to a rate of energy use of 100 WEnergy ultimately comes from the sun sunny day gives ~1000 W/m2How often does the sun shine?How efficiently does sunlight get turned into broccoli?How much energy is needed for farming, packaging, transporting, preparing?
0.1 m20.4 m280 m2800 m2
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What has been left out?No automobiles (~20% of energy use)No televisions, stereos, refrigerators, etc.No heating or AC (~20% of energy use is in households)Since food is about 10% of energy use, estimate 10,000 m2/U.S. citizen = 1 ha = 2.5 acres
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How big is the Earth?Total surface area: ~500 million km2 Total land area: ~150 million km2 Total arable/crop land area: ~50 million km2Number of people supported: 50 trillion m2 10,000 m2/person = 5 billion (at current U.S. levels of consumption)
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Ecological footprintPlanet enters 'ecological debt'
Rising consumption of natural resources means that humans began "eating the planet" on 9 October, a study suggests.
The date symbolised the day of the year when people's demands exceeded the Earth's ability to supply resources and absorb the demands placed upon it. http://www.footprintnetwork.org/
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OvershootWackernagel, et al., Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 99, 9266-9271 (2002)
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Components of overshootEnergy carbonsequestration
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World energy useWorld: ~84 million barrels/day; US: ~21 million barrels/day
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NumbersUnited States uses ~21 million barrels of oil per dayWorld use is ~84 million bpdWorld energy use is ~400 quadrillion Btu/yearU.S. share is ~100 quadrillion~80% is fossil fuel, 0.5% is solar, wind, geothermal renewablesU.S. share of world population is 4.6%
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Chart1
0157.0861841.94
0181.9611973.574
0204.7542247.711
0223.5152289.836
0238.5792357.082
0252.1332314.988
0281.3712484.428
0292.7272617.283
0294.992616.901
0294.7492448.987
0.187320.7572574.403
0.559340.1572574.374
6.327361.6892615.431
10.259372.7052665.93
10.74400.8862741.983
11.059422.4712775.763
11.128441.5562837.386
14.358468.6363013.405
29.126514.4553186.616
66.204550.3113262.838
73.953580.2413297.798
83.616605.9163433.834
79.494617.8153374.42
72.893638.2163382.475
72.323634.4233288.58
70.603616.0983131.982
69.834595.9582986.945
63.398587.0452912.782
169.201590.4552840.064
448.62572.0862729.596
511.335578.0232609.975
591.646575.7872554.719
587.337587.1192541.287
618.91565.8762537.805
625.527568.9262545.472
630.401596.4772619.295
666.233587.3582608.32
681.315662486.942
715.955582.2912331.423
738.143594.6922240.98
683.98564.1252094.793
647.31568.9992037.377
656.349605.6582050.69
627.322621.1781997.31
577.494633.5181921.539
568.948630.21862.528
541.654643.1991852.614
509.999669.821856.018
472.949663.2661881.882
428.851642.2021853.068
383.198675.121763.534
355.198699.4151775.509
351.412681.9641766.099
359.335686.2881737.789
355.582627.511717.871
332.445662.7251655.055
Alaska
NG Plant Liquids
Lower 48
Production (106 bbl/year)
US Petroleum Production
stb0501
Table 5.1 Petroleum Overview, 1949-2004
(Thousand Barrels)
YearTrade
Petroleum
Crude OilTotalProcessingImportsExportsNet ImportsStockAdjust-Products
Natural GasSupplied
AlaskaTotalPlant Liquids
19491,841,9401841.94001,841,940157,086157.0861,999,026-585235,559119,376116,183-2,852-13,9672,103,509
19501,973,5741973.574001,973,574181,961181.9612,155,535712310,261111,306198,955-20,409-18,4712,357,140
19512,247,7112247.711002,247,711204,754204.7542,452,4652,648308,194154,052154,14236,991-11,3762,560,888
19522,289,8362289.836002,289,836223,515223.5152,513,3512,552348,507158,188190,31939,645-5,8972,660,680
19532,357,0822357.082002,357,082238,579238.5792,595,6617,184377,499146,591230,90851,753-8,1362,773,864
19542,314,9882314.988002,314,988252,133252.1332,567,1218,468383,955129,733254,222-10,574-9,4332,830,952
19552,484,4282484.428002,484,428281,371281.3712,765,79912,356455,564134,188321,376-74-13,4033,086,202
19562,617,2832617.283002,617,283292,727292.7272,910,01015,704525,591157,386368,20565,532-16,6643,211,723
19572,616,9012616.901002,616,901294,990294.992,911,89115,159574,589207,187367,40260,926-18,2373,215,289
19582,448,9872448.987002,448,987294,749294.7492,743,73623,192620,589100,638519,951-51,110-9,9963,327,993
19592,574,4032574.4031870.1872,574,590320,757320.7572,895,34731,509649,58377,067572,51618,519-3,6803,477,173
19602,574,3742574.3745590.5592,574,933340,157340.1572,915,09053,282664,11173,906590,205-30,235-2,9923,585,820
19612,615,4312615.4316,3276.3272,621,758361,689361.6892,983,44765,429699,66663,563636,10340,516-3,1833,641,280
19622,665,9302665.9310,25910.2592,676,189372,705372.7053,048,89463,901759,79361,390698,40311,795-3,3743,796,029
19632,741,9832741.98310,74010.742,752,723400,886400.8863,153,60973,710774,71375,914698,7991,263-3,4913,921,364
19642,775,7632775.76311,05911.0592,786,822422,471422.4713,209,29379,335826,73673,879752,8573,676-3,5734,034,236
19652,837,3862837.38611,12811.1282,848,514441,556441.5563,290,07080,241900,77268,288832,484-2,891-3,6474,202,039
19663,013,4053013.40514,35814.3583,027,763468,636468.6363,496,39989,535939,16272,400866,76238,121-3,7794,410,796
19673,186,6163186.61629,12629.1263,215,742514,455514.4553,730,197106,592925,991112,060813,93163,006-3,1884,584,526
19683,262,8383262.83866,20466.2043,329,042550,311550.3113,879,353116,6911,039,36984,544954,82555,4616,3814,901,789
19693,297,7983297.79873,95373.9533,371,751580,241580.2413,951,992122,4121,155,55184,8851,070,666-17,449-2,5895,159,930
19703,433,8343433.83483,61683.6163,517,450605,916605.9164,123,366131,0521,248,06294,4581,153,60437,738-5,8115,364,473
19713,374,4203374.4279,49479.4943,453,914617,815617.8154,071,729139,4331,432,88081,8451,351,03526,08616,4495,552,560
19723,382,4753382.47572,89372.8933,455,368638,216638.2164,093,584142,1611,735,31481,3891,653,925-84,96815,6785,990,316
19733,288,5803288.5872,32372.3233,360,903634,423634.4233,995,326165,4882,283,49384,4132,199,08049,3286,7376,317,303
19743,131,9823131.98270,60370.6033,202,585616,098616.0983,818,683175,2552,230,94780,4912,150,45665,339-8166,078,239
19752,986,9452986.94569,83469.8343,056,779595,958595.9583,652,737167,7822,210,33576,4282,133,90711,83914,9285,957,515
19762,912,7822912.78263,39863.3982,976,180587,045587.0453,563,225174,6752,676,41181,5992,594,812-21,14536,8936,390,750
19772,840,0642840.064169,201169.2013,009,265590,455590.4553,599,720191,4153,214,64688,5883,126,058200,09010,3656,727,468
19782,729,5962729.596448,620448.623,178,216572,086572.0863,750,302181,1833,052,645132,0572,920,588-34,281-7,3376,879,017
19792,609,9752609.975511,335511.3353,121,310578,023578.0233,699,333192,4373,086,487171,8562,914,63163,14513,8216,757,077
19802,554,7192554.719591,646591.6463,146,365575,787575.7873,722,152218,6172,528,703199,2562,329,44751,11623,3456,242,445
19812,541,2872541.287587,337587.3373,128,624587,119587.1193,715,743185,3102,188,420217,0241,971,39658,39647,0055,861,058
19822,537,8052537.805618,910618.913,156,715565,876565.8763,722,591193,6721,866,358297,5141,568,844-53,72444,1075,582,938
19832,545,4722545.472625,527625.5273,170,999568,926568.9263,739,925178,0331,843,744269,8541,573,890-7,32260,1945,559,364
19842,619,2952619.295630,401630.4013,249,696596,477596.4773,846,173202,5591,989,936264,0761,725,860102,59083,5735,755,575
19852,608,3202608.32666,233666.2333,274,553587,358587.3583,861,911203,4431,849,508285,0681,564,440-37,45872,8915,740,143
19862,486,9422486.942681,310681.313,168,252566,0005663,734,252224,9302,271,582286,3731,985,20973,74371,7815,942,429
19872,331,4232331.423715,955715.9553,047,378582,291582.2913,629,669233,2652,437,359278,7302,158,62914,93976,1186,082,742
19882,240,9802240.98738,143738.1432,979,123594,692594.6923,573,815239,7602,709,140298,4662,410,674-10,21991,2246,325,692
19892,094,7932094.793683,980683.982,778,773564,125564.1253,342,898241,4152,942,099313,4602,628,639-15,81394,9166,323,681
19902,037,3772037.377647,310647.312,684,687568,999568.9993,253,686249,3822,926,395312,6712,613,72439,214123,2236,200,801
19912,050,6902050.69656,349656.3492,707,039605,658605.6583,312,697260,9612,783,763365,3412,418,422-3,679104,7916,100,550
19921,997,3101997.31627,322627.3222,624,632621,178621.1783,245,810282,5272,886,897347,5822,539,315-24,980141,3936,234,025
19931,921,5391921.539577,494577.4942,499,033633,518633.5183,132,551279,7133,146,454365,9742,780,48055,245153,9086,291,407
19941,862,5281862.528568,948568.9482,431,476630,200630.23,061,676280,3223,283,621343,8962,939,7255,566190,9716,467,128
19951,852,6141852.614541,654541.6542,394,268643,199643.1993,037,467282,6183,224,753346,4772,878,276-89,933181,1816,469,475
19961,856,0181856.018509,999509.9992,366,017669,820669.823,035,837306,4433,469,128358,8973,110,231-55,436193,1126,701,059
19971,881,8821881.882472,949472.9492,354,831663,266663.2663,018,097310,0783,708,970366,2583,342,71252,343177,8676,796,411
19981,853,0681853.068428,851428.8512,281,919642,202642.2022,924,121323,4473,908,446344,7573,563,68987,216180,7156,904,756
19991,763,5341763.534383,198383.1982,146,732675,120675.122,821,852323,4903,961,074343,0173,618,057-154,044207,1157,124,558
20001,775,5091775.509355,198355.1982,130,707699,415699.4152,830,122346,8924,194,086380,7103,813,376-25,384194,8207,210,594
20011,766,0991766.099351,412351.4122,117,511681,964681.9642,799,475329,6634,333,038354,4193,978,619118,802182,8227,171,777
20021,737,7891737.789359,335359.3352,097,124686,288686.2882,783,412349,1454,208,538359,0773,849,461-38,439192,4197,212,876
20031,717,8711717.871355,582355.5822,073,453[R]627,510627.512,700,963[R]355,542[R]4,476,501[R]374,708[R]4,101,793[R]20,393[R]174,3247,312,229[R]
1,655,0551655.055332,445332.4451,987,500662,725662.7252,650,225374,7774,721,179383,6344,337,54577,733224,5597,509,373
R=Revised. P=Preliminary. (s)=Less than 500 barrels per day.
Web Page: See http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/info_glance/petroleum.html for related information.
stb0501
Alaska
NG Plant Liquids
Lower 48
Production (106 bbl/year)
US Petroleum Production
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US Production PeakApproximately 30 out of 40 largest producers have crossed a peak
Chart2
0.0020.1606864672
0.50.1906259338
2.1140.2258095047
3.0570.2670914616
2.6110.3154534952
2.1160.3720216677
2.4980.4380852988
3.5980.515117941
3.3470.6048006168
3.6460.7090474952
4.2150.8300341894
5.2610.970228859
5.2051.1324263018
6.2931.3197852177
8.8941.5358688215
10.9271.7846889769
12.1632.0707540089
9.1332.399120341
13.352.7754480809
15.3973.2060606574
19.9143.6980085805
26.2864.2591373621
27.6614.8981595965
30.355.6247311505
23.456.4495313614
24.2187.3843470813
21.8598.4421603395
28.0659.6372393194
28.28310.985232268
27.61212.5032638664
35.16414.2100334974
45.82416.1259147436
54.29318.273055346
50.51520.6754767402
48.43123.3591721731
49.34426.3522022861
52.89229.6847869286
60.9633.3893918498
60.47637.5008087947
55.36442.0562274184
57.07147.0952973218
63.62152.66017841
69.38958.7955776836
88.76765.5487704938
100.46172.9696042262
117.08181.1104823352
134.71890.0263266216
126.49499.774515646
166.095110.4147971931
178.527122.0091727538
183.171134.6217520767
209.557148.3185759546
220.449163.1674055659
222.935179.2374768761
248.446196.5992188345
265.763215.3239343627
281.104235.4834434378
300.767257.1496879152
335.316280.3942981152
335.928305.2881216144
378.367331.9007151317
442.929360.2998008787
472.183390.5506892505
557.531422.7156702598
732.407456.853376663
713.94493.0181222798
620.373531.259219567
770.874571.6202810607
901.129614.138509842
901.474658.8439847048
1007.323705.7589461949
898.011754.8970901441
851.081806.2628757305
785.159859.850855445
905.656915.6450346312
908.065973.6182684737
993.9421033.731704443
1098.5131095.9342782423
1277.6531160.1622712489
1213.2541226.3389372834
1264.2561294.3742062843
1503.1761364.1644720899
1404.1821435.5924710591
1385.4791508.5272576683
1505.6131582.8242825339
1677.9041658.3255775088
1713.6551734.8600516074
1733.4241812.2439005264
1856.9871890.2811314632
2020.1851968.7642037885
1841.942047.4747849376
1973.5742126.1846196335
2247.7112204.6565092846
2289.8362282.6453971061
2357.0822359.8995532275
2314.9882436.1618527786
2484.4282511.1711387162
2617.2832584.6636599782
2616.9012656.3745744471
2448.9872726.0395051959
2574.592793.3961375822
2574.9332858.1858439756
2621.7582920.155322257
2676.1892979.0582337315
2752.7233034.6568257592
2786.8223086.7235242397
2848.5143135.042481087
3027.7633179.4110620176
3215.7423219.6412603287
3329.0423255.561022886
3371.7513287.0154752439
3517.453313.8680336985
3453.9143336.001393105
3455.3683353.3183804619
3360.9033365.742665573
3202.5853373.2193215146
3056.7793375.7152291488
2976.183373.2193215146
3009.2653365.742665573
3178.2163353.3183804619
3121.313336.001393105
3146.3653313.8680336985
3128.6243287.0154752439
3156.7153255.561022886
3170.9993219.6412603287
3249.6963179.4110620176
3274.5533135.042481087
3168.2523086.7235242397
3047.3783034.6568257592
2979.1232979.0582337315
2778.7732920.155322257
2684.6872858.1858439756
2707.0392793.3961375822
2624.6322726.0395051959
2499.0332656.3745744471
2431.4762584.6636599782
2394.2682511.1711387162
2366.0172436.1618527786
2354.8312359.8995532275
2281.9192282.6453971061
2146.7322204.6565092846
2130.7072126.1846196335
2117.5112047.4747849376
2097.1241968.7642037885
2073.4531890.2811314632
1983.3021812.2439005264
20051734.8600516074
20061658.3255775088
20071582.8242825339
20081508.5272576683
20091435.5924710591
20101364.1644720899
20111294.3742062843
20121226.3389372834
20131160.1622712489
20141095.9342782423
20151033.731704443
2016973.6182684737
2017915.6450346312
2018859.850855445
2019806.2628757305
2020754.8970901441
2021705.7589461949
2022658.8439847048
2023614.138509842
2024571.6202810607
2025531.259219567
2026493.0181222798
2027456.853376663
2028422.7156702598
2029390.5506892505
2030360.2998008787
2031331.9007151317
2032305.2881216144
2033280.3942981152
2034257.1496879152
2035235.4834434378
2036215.3239343627
2037196.5992188345
2038179.2374768761
2039163.1674055659
2040148.3185759546
2041134.6217520767
2042122.0091727538
2043110.4147971931
204499.774515646
204590.0263266216
204681.1104823352
204772.9696042262
204865.5487704938
204958.7955776836
205052.66017841
205147.0952973218
205242.0562274184
205337.5008087947
205433.3893918498
205529.6847869286
205626.3522022861
205723.3591721731
205820.6754767402
205918.273055346
206016.1259147436
206114.2100334974
206212.5032638664
206310.985232268
20649.6372393194
20658.4421603395
20667.3843470813
20676.4495313614
20685.6247311505
20694.8981595965
20704.2591373621
20713.6980085805
20723.2060606574
20732.7754480809
20742.399120341
20752.0707540089
20761.7846889769
20771.5358688215
20781.3197852177
20791.1324263018
20800.970228859
20810.8300341894
20820.7090474952
20830.6048006168
20840.515117941
20850.4380852988
20860.3720216677
20870.3154534952
20880.2670914616
20890.2258095047
20900.1906259338
20910.1606864672
20920.1352490346
20930.113670193
20940.0953930146
20950.079936311
20960.0668850696
20970.0558819841
20980.0466199715
20990.0388355753
US Production
Gaussian
Year
Million barrels per year
Gaussian
US oil production, not including AlaskaSuggested exercise: Change the parameters for the Gaussian function; what leeway do you have
to make changes and still fit the data? What are the corresponding results for the inferred total
recoverable oil amount for the US 48?
US Total:226Gb
YearChange these parameters:
1850Gamma=38Width of GaussianSigma=26
1851center=1975Peak year of Gaussiancenter=1975
1852A=9200Amplitude of GaussianQ_inf=220
1853A=0.0153441601(calc.)
1854
1855
1856US 48 Prod.US 48 Prod.Daily prod.Yearly prod.
1857(MMb/a)(Mbpd)GaussianGaussian
1858
18590.0020.010.830.1606864672
18600.5001.370.970.1906259338
18612.1145.791.140.2258095047
18623.0578.381.330.2670914616
18632.6117.151.550.3154534952
18642.1165.801.810.3720216677
18652.4986.842.110.4380852988
18663.5989.862.460.515117941
18673.3479.172.860.6048006168
18683.6469.993.310.7090474952
18694.21511.553.840.8300341894
18705.26114.414.450.970228859
18715.20514.265.141.1324263018
18726.29317.245.931.3197852177
18738.89424.376.831.5358688215
187410.92729.947.871.7846889769
187512.16333.329.042.0707540089
18769.13325.0210.382.399120341
187713.35036.5811.892.7754480809
187815.39742.1813.613.2060606574
187919.91454.5615.563.6980085805
188026.28672.0217.764.2591373621
188127.66175.7820.244.8981595965
188230.35083.1523.045.6247311505
188323.45064.2526.196.4495313614
188424.21866.3529.737.3843470813
188521.85959.8933.708.4421603395
188628.06576.8938.159.6372393194
188728.28377.4943.1210.985232268
188827.61275.6548.6812.5032638664
188935.16496.3454.8814.2100334974
189045.824125.5561.7716.1259147436
189154.293148.7569.4418.273055346
189250.515138.4077.9620.6754767402
189348.431132.6987.4023.3591721731
189449.344135.1997.8426.3522022861
189552.892144.91109.3829.6847869286
189660.960167.01122.1133.3893918498
189760.476165.69136.1437.5008087947
189855.364151.68151.5642.0562274184
189957.071156.36168.5047.0952973218
190063.621174.30187.0852.66017841
190169.389190.11207.4158.7955776836
190288.767243.20229.6465.5487704938
1903100.461275.24253.9072.9696042262
1904117.081320.77280.3381.1104823352
1905134.718369.09309.0890.0263266216
1906126.494346.56340.3199.774515646
1907166.095455.05374.18110.4147971931
1908178.527489.12410.85122.0091727538
1909183.171501.84450.49134.6217520767
1910209.557574.13493.27148.3185759546
1911220.449603.97539.37163.1674055659
1912222.935610.78588.95179.2374768761
1913248.446680.67642.21196.5992188345
1914265.763728.12699.31215.3239343627
1915281.104770.15760.43235.4834434378
1916300.767824.02825.75257.1496879152
1917335.316918.67895.44280.3942981152
1918335.928920.35969.67305.2881216144
1919378.3671036.621048.60331.9007151317
1920442.9291213.501132.39360.2998008787
1921472.1831293.651221.17390.5506892505
1922557.5311527.481315.10422.7156702598
1923732.4072006.591414.29456.853376663
1924713.9401956.001518.86493.0181222798
1925620.3731699.651628.89531.259219567
1926770.8742111.981744.49571.6202810607
1927901.1292468.851865.70614.138509842
1928901.4742469.791992.57658.8439847048
19291007.3232759.792125.12705.7589461949
1930898.0112460.302263.36754.8970901441
1931851.0812331.732407.25806.2628757305
1932785.1592151.122556.74859.850855445
1933905.6562481.252711.76915.6450346312
1934908.0652487.852872.19973.6182684737
1935993.9422723.133037.911033.731704443
19361098.5133009.623208.741095.9342782423
19371277.6533500.423384.491160.1622712489
19381213.2543323.983564.921226.3389372834
19391264.2563463.723749.781294.3742062843
19401503.1764118.293938.761364.1644720899
19411404.1823847.074131.541435.5924710591
19421385.4793795.834327.751508.5272576683
19431505.6134124.974527.011582.8242825339
19441677.9044597.004728.891658.3255775088
19451713.6554694.954932.941734.8600516074
19461733.4244749.115138.671812.2439005264
19471856.9875087.645345.561890.2811314632
19482020.1855534.755553.101968.7642037885
19491841.9405046.415760.702047.4747849376
19501973.5745407.055967.802126.1846196335
19512247.7116158.116173.782204.6565092846
19522289.8366273.526378.032282.6453971061
19532357.0826457.766579.932359.8995532275
19542314.9886342.436778.812436.1618527786
19552484.4286806.656974.042511.1711387162
19562617.2837170.647164.972584.6636599782
19572616.9017169.597350.932656.3745744471
19582448.9876709.557531.282726.0395051959
19592574.5907053.677705.382793.3961375822
19602574.9337054.617872.582858.1858439756
19612621.7587182.908032.292920.155322257
19622676.1897332.028183.892979.0582337315
19632752.7237541.718326.813034.6568257592
19642786.8227635.138460.503086.7235242397
19652848.5147804.158584.443135.042481087
19663027.7638295.248698.143179.4110620176
19673215.7428810.258801.153219.6412603287
19683329.0429120.668893.053255.561022886
19693371.7519237.678973.473287.0154752439
19703517.4509636.859042.093313.8680336985
19713453.9149462.789098.623336.001393105
19723455.3689466.769142.843353.3183804619
19733360.9039207.959174.553365.742665573
19743202.5858774.219193.633373.2193215146
19753056.7798374.749200.003375.7152291488
19762976.1808153.929193.633373.2193215146
19773009.2658244.569174.553365.742665573
19783178.2168707.449142.843353.3183804619
19793121.3108551.539098.623336.001393105
19803146.3658620.189042.093313.8680336985
19813128.6248571.578973.473287.0154752439
19823156.7158648.538893.053255.561022886
19833170.9998687.678801.153219.6412603287
19843249.6968903.288698.143179.4110620176
19853274.5538971.388584.443135.042481087
19863168.2528680.148460.503086.7235242397
19873047.3788348.988326.813034.6568257592
19882979.1238161.988183.892979.0582337315
19892778.7737613.088032.292920.155322257
19902684.6877355.317872.582858.1858439756
19912707.0397416.557705.382793.3961375822
19922624.6327190.777531.282726.0395051959
19932499.0336846.677350.932656.3745744471
19942431.4766661.587164.972584.6636599782
19952394.2686559.646974.042511.1711387162
19962366.0176482.246778.812436.1618527786
19972354.8316451.596579.932359.8995532275
19982281.9196251.836378.032282.6453971061
19992146.7325881.466173.782204.6565092846
20002130.7075837.555967.802126.1846196335
20012117.5115801.405760.702047.4747849376
20022097.1245745.555553.101968.7642037885
20032073.4535680.695345.561890.2811314632
20041983.3025433.705138.671812.2439005264
20054932.941734.8600516074
20064728.891658.3255775088
20074527.011582.8242825339
20084327.751508.5272576683
20094131.541435.5924710591
20103938.761364.1644720899
20113749.781294.3742062843
20123564.921226.3389372834
20133384.491160.1622712489
20143208.741095.9342782423
20153037.911033.731704443
20162872.19973.6182684737
20172711.76915.6450346312
20182556.74859.850855445
20192407.25806.2628757305
20202263.36754.8970901441
20212125.12705.7589461949
20221992.57658.8439847048
20231865.70614.138509842
20241744.49571.6202810607
20251628.89531.259219567
20261518.86493.0181222798
20271414.29456.853376663
20281315.10422.7156702598
20291221.17390.5506892505
20301132.39360.2998008787
20311048.60331.9007151317
2032969.67305.2881216144
2033895.44280.3942981152
2034825.75257.1496879152
2035760.43235.4834434378
2036699.31215.3239343627
2037642.21196.5992188345
2038588.95179.2374768761
2039539.37163.1674055659
2040493.27148.3185759546
2041450.49134.6217520767
2042410.85122.0091727538
2043374.18110.4147971931
2044340.3199.774515646
2045309.0890.0263266216
2046280.3381.1104823352
2047253.9072.9696042262
2048229.6465.5487704938
2049207.4158.7955776836
2050187.0852.66017841
2051168.5047.0952973218
2052151.5642.0562274184
2053136.1437.5008087947
2054122.1133.3893918498
2055109.3829.6847869286
205697.8426.3522022861
205787.4023.3591721731
205877.9620.6754767402
205969.4418.273055346
206061.7716.1259147436
206154.8814.2100334974
206248.6812.5032638664
206343.1210.985232268
206438.159.6372393194
206533.708.4421603395
206629.737.3843470813
206726.196.4495313614
206823.045.6247311505
206920.244.8981595965
207017.764.2591373621
207115.563.6980085805
207213.613.2060606574
207311.892.7754480809
207410.382.399120341
20759.042.0707540089
20767.871.7846889769
20776.831.5358688215
20785.931.3197852177
20795.141.1324263018
20804.450.970228859
20813.840.8300341894
20823.310.7090474952
20832.860.6048006168
20842.460.515117941
20852.110.4380852988
20861.810.3720216677
20871.550.3154534952
20881.330.2670914616
20891.140.2258095047
20900.970.1906259338
20910.830.1606864672
20920.700.1352490346
20930.600.113670193
20940.510.0953930146
20950.430.079936311
20960.360.0668850696
20970.310.0558819841
20980.260.0466199715
20990.220.0388355753
21000.180.0323031619
Gaussian
US Production
Gaussian
Year
Million barrels per year
Logistic World
Change these parameters!
0.07
1600
14500
1860
Staniford dataYour
YearQnew
1857prediction
1858478.4150385765
1859
18600.000.110.01
18610.000.120.01
18620.010.130.01
18630.010.140.02
18640.010.150.02
18650.010.160.02
18660.020.170.02
18670.020.180.02
18680.030.190.03
18690.030.210.03
18700.040.220.03
18710.040.240.04
18720.050.260.04
18730.060.270.05
18740.070.290.05
18750.090.320.05
18760.100.340.06
18770.110.360.06
18780.130.390.07
18790.160.420.07
18800.190.450.07
18810.220.480.07
18820.250.510.07
18830.280.550.07
18840.320.590.07
18850.360.630.08
18860.400.680.08
18870.450.730.08
18880.500.780.08
18890.570.840.08
18900.640.900.07
18910.730.970.05
18920.821.040.05
18930.911.110.04
18941.001.190.04
18951.111.280.03
18961.221.370.02
18971.341.470.02
18981.471.580.01
18991.601.690.01
19001.751.810.00
19011.921.940.00
19022.102.080.00
19032.292.240.00
19042.512.400.01
19052.732.570.02
19062.942.760.03
19073.202.960.06
19083.493.170.10
19093.793.400.15
19104.113.650.22
19114.463.910.30
19124.814.190.38
19135.204.500.49
19145.604.820.61
19156.045.170.75
19166.495.540.90
19177.005.941.11
19187.506.371.27
19198.066.831.50
19208.757.322.02
19219.517.852.75
192210.378.423.80
192311.399.035.57
192412.409.687.41
192513.4710.379.57
192614.5711.1211.86
192715.8311.9215.26
192817.1512.7819.13
192918.6413.7024.41
193020.1214.6829.56
193121.6915.7435.43
193223.3116.8741.52
193325.0018.0747.95
193426.8019.3755.20
193528.7020.7663.10
193630.6722.2471.06
193732.7523.8379.59
193834.8825.5387.44
193937.1127.3595.29
194039.3429.29100.91
194141.7131.38106.77
194243.9433.60106.82
194346.3535.99107.41
194449.0938.53111.46
194551.8841.25112.90
194654.8544.16114.21
194758.1047.27117.28
194861.7750.59125.00
194965.4254.13127.38
195069.5057.92134.18
195174.0761.95146.81
195278.8966.26159.53
195384.1070.85175.54
195489.5175.74189.48
195595.6080.96214.36
1956102.1286.51243.62
1957108.9892.42274.16
1958115.9598.71297.22
1959123.58105.39330.66
1960131.80112.50372.47
1961140.55120.04420.43
1962150.02128.05482.54
1963160.22136.54560.47
1964171.26145.54661.23
1965182.93155.07776.07
1966195.63165.16928.31
1967209.26175.821118.09
1968224.13187.081373.07
1969240.10198.951693.33
1970257.61211.472128.64
1971276.19224.652655.92
1972295.64238.513263.90
1973317.04253.074091.69
1974338.72268.354952.16
1975359.25284.345610.77
1976381.33301.086440.51
1977404.10318.577316.01
1978427.25336.808181.25
1979451.34355.799129.56
1980474.36375.549766.36
1981496.10396.0310014.99
1982516.87417.259924.09
1983537.48439.209657.87
1984558.57461.869353.26
1985579.54485.198901.35
1986601.51509.178526.03
1987623.60533.788068.03
1988646.53558.967669.07
1989670.05584.687288.66
1990693.99610.886906.32
1991717.89637.536458.44
1992741.91664.565983.41
1993765.99691.905488.22
1994790.37719.515021.58
1995815.24747.314614.32
1996840.75775.254290.64
1997867.11803.244079.99
1998893.87831.223924.40
1999920.09859.133716.48
2000947.33886.893652.99
2001974.23914.453573.33
20021001.40941.733560.50
20031029.52968.673702.92
20041058.90995.224054.91
20051088.501021.324513.03
20061046.92
20071071.97
20081096.43
20091120.27
20101143.45
20111165.94
20121187.72
20131208.78
20141229.10
20151248.67
20161267.48
20171285.54
20181302.86
20191319.42
20201335.25
20211350.36
20221364.75
20231378.46
20241391.48
20251403.85
20261415.58
20271426.70
20281437.22
20291447.18
20301456.58
20311465.46
20321473.84
20331481.74
20341489.18
20351496.19
20361502.78
20371508.98
20381514.80
20391520.28
20401525.42
20411530.24
20421534.76
20431539.00
20441542.98
20451546.71
20461550.20
20471553.47
20481556.53
20491559.39
20501562.07
20511564.58
20521566.93
20531569.12
20541571.17
20551573.08
20561574.88
20571576.55
20581578.11
20591579.57
20601580.94
20611582.21
20621583.40
20631584.51
20641585.55
20651586.52
20661587.42
20671588.27
20681589.06
20691589.79
20701590.48
20711591.12
20721591.71
20731592.27
20741592.79
20751593.28
20761593.73
20771594.15
20781594.55
20791594.91
20801595.26
20811595.58
20821595.87
20831596.15
20841596.41
20851596.65
20861596.88
20871597.09
20881597.29
20891597.47
20901597.64
20911597.80
20921597.95
20931598.09
20941598.22
20951598.34
20961598.45
20971598.55
20981598.65
20991598.74
21001598.83
Logistic World
Q
Q
World Cumulative Production
Logistic US
Suggested exercise: Change the values for the logistic function (in green fields). What latititude do
US oil production, not including Alaskayou have to make changes and still fit the historical production record?
Change these parameters!
b0.06870.057Initial exponential growth rate
170230Ultimately recoverable reserve
Yeara66Curve-shape fitting factor
t0=19411945Time-scale fitting factor
1850
1851
1852
1853
1854
1855US 481980Your
1856US 48 Prod.Cum.Hubbertnew
1857(MMb/a)(Gbbl)predictionprediction
1858
18590.0020.000.100.28
18600.5000.000.110.30
18612.1140.000.120.32
18623.0570.010.120.34
18632.6110.010.130.36
18642.1160.010.140.38
18652.4980.010.150.40
18663.5980.020.160.42
18673.3470.020.180.45
18683.6460.020.190.47
18694.2150.030.200.50
18705.2610.030.220.53
18715.2050.040.230.56
18726.2930.040.250.60
18738.8940.050.260.63
187410.9270.060.280.67
187512.1630.080.300.71
18769.1330.090.330.75
187713.3500.100.350.79
187815.3970.110.370.84
187919.9140.130.400.89
188026.2860.160.430.94
188127.6610.190.460.99
188230.3500.220.491.05
188323.4500.240.531.11
188424.2180.270.561.18
188521.8590.290.601.25
188628.0650.320.651.32
188728.2830.340.691.40
188827.6120.370.741.48
188935.1640.410.791.56
189045.8240.450.851.66
189154.2930.510.911.75
189250.5150.560.971.85
189348.4310.611.041.96
189449.3440.661.112.08
189552.8920.711.192.20
189660.9600.771.282.32
189760.4760.831.372.46
189855.3640.891.462.60
189957.0710.941.572.75
190063.6211.011.682.91
190169.3891.081.803.08
190288.7671.161.923.26
1903100.4611.262.063.45
1904117.0811.382.203.64
1905134.7181.522.363.86
1906126.4941.642.524.08
1907166.0951.812.704.31
1908178.5271.992.894.56
1909183.1712.173.094.82
1910209.5572.383.305.10
1911220.4492.603.535.39
1912222.9352.823.785.70
1913248.4463.074.046.02
1914265.7633.344.326.37
1915281.1043.624.626.73
1916300.7673.924.947.11
1917335.3164.265.287.52
1918335.9284.595.647.94
1919378.3674.976.038.39
1920442.9295.416.448.86
1921472.1835.886.889.36
1922557.5316.447.359.89
1923732.4077.177.8510.44
1924713.9407.898.3811.03
1925620.3738.518.9411.64
1926770.8749.289.5412.29
1927901.12910.1810.1812.97
1928901.47411.0810.8613.68
19291007.32312.0911.5814.43
1930898.01112.9912.3415.22
1931851.08113.8413.1516.05
1932785.15914.6214.0116.93
1933905.65615.5314.9217.84
1934908.06516.4415.8818.80
1935993.94217.4316.9019.81
19361098.51318.5317.9720.87
19371277.65319.8119.1121.97
19381213.25421.0220.3023.13
19391264.25622.2921.5624.35
19401503.17623.7922.8925.62
19411404.18225.1924.2926.94
19421385.47926.5825.7528.33
19431505.61328.0827.2929.78
19441677.90429.7628.9031.28
19451713.65531.4830.5832.86
19461733.42433.2132.3534.50
19471856.98735.0734.1836.20
19482020.18537.0936.1037.97
19491841.94038.9338.0939.81
19501973.57440.9040.1641.73
19512247.71143.1542.3043.71
19522289.83645.4444.5245.76
19532357.08247.8046.8247.89
19542314.98850.1149.1950.09
19552484.42852.6051.6252.35
19562617.28355.2154.1254.69
19572616.90157.8356.6957.11
19582448.98760.2859.3159.59
19592574.59062.8561.9962.14
19602574.93365.4364.7264.76
19612621.75868.0567.5067.44
19622676.18970.7370.3170.19
19632752.72373.4873.1673.00
19642786.82276.2776.0475.87
19652848.51479.1178.9378.80
19663027.76382.1481.8581.78
19673215.74285.3684.7684.80
19683329.04288.6987.6887.88
19693371.75192.0690.6090.99
19703517.45095.5893.4994.14
19713453.91499.0396.3797.33
19723455.368102.4899.23100.54
19733360.903105.85102.05103.78
19743202.585109.05104.83107.03
19753056.779112.11107.57110.30
19762976.180115.08110.26113.58
19773009.265118.09112.89116.85
19783178.216121.27115.47120.13
19793121.310124.39117.98123.39
19803146.365127.54120.43126.65
19813128.624130.67122.80129.88
19823156.715133.82125.11133.09
19833170.999136.99127.34136.27
19843249.696140.24129.50139.42
19853274.553143.52131.58142.53
19863168.252146.69133.58145.60
19873047.378149.73135.51148.62
19882979.123152.71137.36151.59
19892778.773155.49139.14154.51
19902684.687158.18140.83157.37
19912707.039160.88142.46160.17
19922624.632163.51144.00162.91
19932499.033166.01145.48165.59
19942431.476168.44146.89168.20
19952394.268170.83148.23170.74
19962366.017173.20149.50173.21
19972354.831175.55150.70175.62
19982281.919177.83151.85177.95
19992146.732179.98152.93180.21
20002130.707182.11153.96182.40
20012117.511184.23154.93184.51
20022097.124186.33155.85186.56
20032073.453188.40156.71188.53
20041983.302190.38157.53190.43
2005158.30192.26
2006159.03194.03
2007159.71195.72
2008160.36197.35
2009160.96198.92
2010161.53200.42
2011162.07201.86
2012162.57203.23
2013163.05204.55
2014163.49205.81
2015163.91207.02
2016164.30208.17
2017164.66209.27
2018165.01210.32
2019165.33211.33
2020165.63212.28
2021165.92213.19
2022166.18214.06
2023166.43214.88
2024166.66215.67
2025166.88216.42
2026167.08217.13
2027167.27217.80
2028167.45218.44
2029167.62219.05
2030167.77219.63
2031167.92220.18
2032168.06220.70
2033168.18221.20
2034168.30221.67
2035168.42222.12
2036168.52222.54
2037168.62222.94
2038168.71223.32
2039168.79223.68
2040168.87224.02
2041168.95224.34
2042169.02224.65
2043169.08224.94
2044169.14225.21
2045169.20225.47
2046169.25225.72
2047169.30225.95
2048169.35226.17
2049169.39226.38
2050169.43226.58
Logistic US
Year
Production, MMbbl/a
HL
Cum. Prod. (Gb)
Hubbert 1980
Prediction 2006
Year
Oil Prod. (Gbbl)
US 48 Oil - Logistic Model
World
US oil production, not including AlaskaSuggested exercise: grab and move the blue line to find the
x- and y-intercepts of the plot. These should correspond to
exponential increase in production (k), respectively.
YearHow well do they agree with the values used in the "Logistic"
1850
1851
1852
1853
1854Q
1855PUS 48
1856US 48 Prod.Cum.
1857(MMb/a)(Gbbl)P/Q
1858
18590.0020.001.0000
18600.5000.000.9960
18612.1140.000.8081
18623.0570.010.5389
18632.6110.010.3152
18642.1160.010.2035
18652.4980.010.1937
18663.5980.020.2181
18673.3470.020.1687
18683.6460.020.1552
18694.2150.030.1521
18705.2610.030.1596
18715.2050.040.1364
18726.2930.040.1415
18738.8940.050.1667
187410.9270.060.1700
187512.1630.080.1591
18769.1330.090.1067
187713.3500.100.1349
187815.3970.110.1347
187919.9140.130.1483
188026.2860.160.1637
188127.6610.190.1470
188230.3500.220.1389
188323.4500.240.0969
188424.2180.270.0910
188521.8590.290.0759
188628.0650.320.0888
188728.2830.340.0821
188827.6120.370.0742
188935.1640.410.0864
189045.8240.450.1012
189154.2930.510.1070
189250.5150.560.0906
189348.4310.610.0799
189449.3440.660.0753
189552.8920.710.0747
189660.9600.770.0792
189760.4760.830.0729
189855.3640.890.0625
189957.0710.940.0606
190063.6211.010.0632
190169.3891.080.0645
190288.7671.160.0763
1903100.4611.260.0794
1904117.0811.380.0847
1905134.7181.520.0888
1906126.4941.640.0770
1907166.0951.810.0918
1908178.5271.990.0898
1909183.1712.170.0844
1910209.5572.380.0880
1911220.4492.600.0848
1912222.9352.820.0790
1913248.4463.070.0809
1914265.7633.340.0796
1915281.1043.620.0777
1916300.7673.920.0767
1917335.3164.260.0788
1918335.9284.590.0732
1919378.3674.970.0761
1920442.9295.410.0818
1921472.1835.880.0802
1922557.5316.440.0865
1923732.4077.170.1021
1924713.9407.890.0905
1925620.3738.510.0729
1926770.8749.280.0831
1927901.12910.180.0885
1928901.47411.080.0813
19291007.32312.090.0833
1930898.01112.990.0691
1931851.08113.840.0615
1932785.15914.620.0537
1933905.65615.530.0583
1934908.06516.440.0552
1935993.94217.430.0570
19361098.51318.530.0593
19371277.65319.810.0645
19381213.25421.020.0577
19391264.25622.290.0567
19401503.17623.790.0632
19411404.18225.190.0557
19421385.47926.580.0521
19431505.61328.080.0536
19441677.90429.760.0564
19451713.65531.480.0544
19461733.42433.210.0522
19471856.98735.070.0530
19482020.18537.090.0545
19491841.94038.930.0473
19501973.57440.900.0483
19512247.71143.150.0521
19522289.83645.440.0504
19532357.08247.800.0493
19542314.98850.110.0462
19552484.42852.600.0472
19562617.28355.210.0474
19572616.90157.830.0453
19582448.98760.280.0406
19592574.59062.850.0410
19602574.93365.430.0394
19612621.75868.050.0385
19622676.18970.730.0378
19632752.72373.480.0375
19642786.82276.270.0365
19652848.51479.110.0360
19663027.76382.140.0369
19673215.74285.360.0377
19683329.04288.690.0375
19693371.75192.060.0366
19703517.45095.580.0368
19713453.91499.030.0349
19723455.368102.480.0337
19733360.903105.850.0318
19743202.585109.050.0294
19753056.779112.110.0273
19762976.180115.080.0259
19773009.265118.090.0255
19783178.216121.270.0262
19793121.310124.390.0251
19803146.365127.540.0247
19813128.624130.670.0239
19823156.715133.820.0236
19833170.999136.990.0231
19843249.696140.240.0232
19853274.553143.520.0228
19863168.252146.690.0216
19873047.378149.730.0204
19882979.123152.710.0195
19892778.773155.490.0179
19902684.687158.180.0170
19912707.039160.880.0168
19922624.632163.510.0161
19932499.033166.010.0151
19942431.476168.440.0144
19952394.268170.830.0140
19962366.017173.200.0137
19972354.831175.550.0134
19982281.919177.830.0128
19992146.732179.980.0119
20002130.707182.110.0117
20012117.511184.230.0115
20022097.124186.330.0113
20032073.453188.400.0110
20041983.302190.380.0104
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
World
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Q (Gbbl)
P/Q
US 48 Hubbert Linearization
World HL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Q (Gbbl)
P/Q
US 48 Hubbert Linearization
y = 7E-06x2 - 0.0012x + 0.0909R2 = 0.9197
World oil production
Suggested exercise: Try changing the parameters for both the
Gaussian and Logistic functions and see what conclusions result
for the total world oil reserves, the peak date, and more generally,
how confident one might pretend to be about making these predictions
ProductionProduction
Year(Mb/d)(Gb/a)
19055000.1825
192529001.0585
194571002.5915
1955154005.621step
19653180311.608078171850Change these parameters
19663456812.617466681851for the logistic
19673711813.548087741852Change these parameters
19684043614.75906148511853b0.055for the Gaussian
19694363315.9259913218542400Gamma=40Width of Gaussian
19704806117.54238521855a500.00A_gauss=32Amplitude of Gaussian
19715084418.557914971856t0=1900Peak year2010Peak year of Gaussian
19725366619.58799240741857
19735846321.339163681858LogisticGaussianWorld total:2269Gbbl
19745861721.395070511859(From Gaussian parameters chosen)
19755582420.3758193418600.030.00
19766041222.050223119818610.030.00
19776271322.8902936218620.030.00
19786333123.1158758518630.030.00
19796604924.1078627618640.040.00
19806294622.975128921318650.040.00
19815953321.7294914618660.040.00
19825729620.9130665418670.040.00
19835659820.6581912918680.050.00
19845768321.054244677918690.050.00
19855746820.9758199218700.050.00
19866046122.0683500518710.050.00
19876078522.1866001818720.060.00
19886316023.053304820818730.060.00
19896405123.37851618740.060.00
19906547023.8966986618750.070.00
19916528823.8300822118760.070.00
19926578824.012680803418770.070.00
19936604624.1066713618780.080.00
19946711624.4973407718790.080.00
19956810324.8576202918800.090.00
19966989525.511582054618810.090.00
19977215826.33771911218820.100.00
19987358626.85888017818830.100.00
19997233326.40144611618840.110.00
20007495027.356767992718850.120.00
20017482827.31204492418860.120.00
20027444327.17185135418870.130.00
20037705428.1248489218880.140.00
20048019829.2722718890.140.00
20058108829.5971218900.150.00
20068121629.6438418910.160.00
18920.170.01
18930.180.01
18940.190.01
18950.200.01
18960.210.01
18970.220.01
18980.240.01
18990.250.01
19000.260.02
19010.280.02
19020.290.02
19030.310.02
19040.330.03
19050.350.03
19060.370.04
19070.390.04
19080.410.05
19090.430.05
19100.450.06
19110.480.07
19120.510.08
19130.540.09
19140.570.10
19150.600.11
19160.630.13
19170.670.14
19180.700.16
19190.740.18
19200.780.20
19210.830.23
19220.870.25
19230.920.28
19240.970.31
19251.030.35
19261.080.39
19271.150.43
19281.210.48
19291.280.53
19301.350.59
19311.420.65
19321.500.71
19331.580.79
19341.670.87
19351.760.95
19361.861.04
19371.961.14
19382.071.25
19392.181.37
19402.301.50
19412.421.63
19422.561.78
19432.691.94
19442.842.10
19452.992.28
19463.152.47
19473.322.68
19483.502.90
19493.693.13
19503.883.37
19514.093.63
19524.303.91
19534.534.20
19544.774.51
19555.024.83
19565.285.17
19575.555.53
19585.835.90
19596.136.30
19606.446.71
19616.777.14
19627.107.58
19637.468.05
19647.838.53
19658.219.03
19668.619.54
19679.0210.08
19689.4510.63
19699.9011.19
197010.3711.77
197110.8512.37
197211.3412.98
197311.8613.60
197412.3914.24
197512.9314.88
197613.5015.54
197714.0816.20
197814.6716.87
197915.2817.55
198015.9018.23
198116.5418.92
198217.1919.60
198317.8420.29
198418.5120.97
198519.1921.65
198619.8822.33
198720.5722.99
198821.2723.65
198921.9724.29
199022.6624.92
199123.3625.54
199224.0526.13
199324.7426.71
199425.4127.27
199526.0827.80
199626.7328.31
199727.3628.79
199827.9729.25
199928.5629.67
200029.1230.06
200129.6630.42
200230.1630.75
200330.6331.03
200431.0631.29
200531.4631.50
200631.8131.68
200732.1231.82
200832.3931.92
200932.6131.98
201032.7832.00
201132.9031.98
201232.9831.92
201333.0031.82
201432.9731.68
201532.9031.50
201632.7831.29
201732.6031.03
201832.3830.75
201932.1230.42
202031.8030.06
202131.4529.67
202231.0629.25
202330.6228.79
202430.1528.31
202529.6527.80
202629.1127.27
202728.5526.71
202827.9626.13
202927.3525.54
203026.7224.92
203126.0724.29
203225.4023.65
203324.7322.99
203424.0422.33
203523.3521.65
203622.6520.97
203721.9620.29
203821.2619.60
203920.5618.92
204019.8718.23
204119.1817.55
204218.5116.87
204317.8416.20
204417.1815.54
204516.5314.88
204615.8914.24
204715.2713.60
204814.6612.98
204914.0712.37
205013.4911.77
205112.9311.19
205212.3810.63
205311.8510.08
205411.349.54
205510.849.03
205610.368.53
20579.908.05
20589.457.58
20599.027.14
20608.606.71
20618.206.30
20627.825.90
20637.455.53
20647.105.17
20656.764.83
20666.444.51
20676.134.20
20685.833.91
20695.543.63
20705.273.37
20715.013.13
20724.762.90
20734.532.68
20744.302.47
20754.092.28
20763.882.10
20773.681.94
20783.501.78
20793.321.63
20803.151.50
20812.991.37
20822.841.25
20832.691.14
20842.551.04
20852.420.95
20862.300.87
20872.180.79
20882.070.71
20891.960.65
20901.860.59
20911.760.53
20921.670.48
20931.580.43
20941.500.39
20951.420.35
20961.350.31
20971.270.28
20981.210.25
20991.140.23
21001.080.20
21011.030.18
21020.970.16
21030.920.14
21040.870.13
21050.830.11
21060.780.10
21070.740.09
21080.700.08
21090.670.07
21100.630.06
21110.600.05
21120.560.05
21130.530.04
21140.510.04
21150.480.03
21160.450.03
21170.430.02
21180.410.02
21190.390.02
21200.360.02
21210.350.01
21220.330.01
21230.310.01
21240.290.01
21250.280.01
21260.260.01
21270.250.01
21280.240.01
21290.220.00
21300.210.00
21310.200.00
21320.190.00
21330.180.00
21340.170.00
21350.160.00
21360.150.00
21370.140.00
21380.140.00
21390.130.00
21400.120.00
21410.120.00
21420.110.00
21430.100.00
21440.100.00
21450.090.00
21460.090.00
21470.080.00
21480.080.00
21490.070.00
21500.070.00
21510.070.00
21520.060.00
21530.060.00
21540.060.00
21550.050.00
21560.050.00
21570.050.00
21580.050.00
21590.040.00
21600.040.00
21610.040.00
21620.040.00
21630.030.00
21640.030.00
21650.030.00
21660.030.00
21670.030.00
21680.030.00
21690.020.00
21700.020.00
21710.020.00
21720.020.00
21730.020.00
21740.020.00
21750.020.00
21760.020.00
21770.020.00
21780.020.00
21790.010.00
21800.010.00
21810.010.00
21820.010.00
21830.010.00
21840.010.00
21850.010.00
21860.010.00
21870.010.00
21880.010.00
21890.010.00
21900.010.00
21910.010.00
21920.010.00
21930.010.00
21940.010.00
21950.010.00
21960.010.00
21970.010.00
21980.010.00
21990.000.00
22000.000.00
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
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World Oil Production
Gaussian
Logistic
Year
World Production (Gb/a)
Oil Production
0
0
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0
0
0
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0
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0
0
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0.1825 1.0585 2.5915 5.621
HL calculations using reconstructed data up to 1970, actual data from 1970 on
Staniford data
YearQP/Q
Reconstructed historical data1857
Exponential increase1858
0.071301859
18600.00100.00%
ProductionActual historical data, with gaps18610.0066.67%
(Gb/a)QP/Q18620.0150.00%
18600.00769230770.0076923077118630.0133.33%
18610.0082500629ProductionProduction0.01594237060.517492857718640.0118.18%
18620.00884826Year(Mb/d)(Gb/a)0.02479063060.356919520518650.0121.43%
18630.00948983120.03428046180.276829153418660.0222.22%
18640.010177921619055000.18250.04445838350.228931437418670.0218.18%
18650.0109159042192529001.05850.05537428770.197129474218680.0315.38%
18660.0117073966194571002.59150.06708168430.174524487718690.0316.13%
18670.01255627861955154005.6210.07963796290.15766699918700.0416.22%
18680.013466711519653180311.608078170.09310467440.144640552418710.0413.95%
18690.014443158319663456812.617466680.10754783270.134295205518720.0514.00%
18700.015490405419673711813.548087740.12303823820.125899116218730.0618.03%
18710.016613586619684043614.75906148510.13965182470.118964335818740.0716.44%
18720.017818207519694363315.925991320.15747003230.113153006118750.0915.12%
18730.019110173319704806117.54238520.17658020560.108223757418760.1011.34%
18740.020495817219715084418.557914970.19707602280.103999547718770.1114.16%
18750.021981931719725366619.58799240740.21905795450.10034756218780.1313.74%
18760.023575801619735846321.339163680.24263375610.097166206218790.1615.48%
18770.025285240119745861721.395070510.26791899610.094376436218800.1916.22%
18780.027118626819755582420.375819340.2950376230.09191582618810.2214.75%
18790.029084949119766041222.05022311980.32412257210.089734414218820.2514.23%
18800.031193845919776271322.890293620.3553164180.087791738118830.2810.60%
18810.033455654919786333123.115875850.38877207290.086054676418840.3211.29%
18820.035881463619796604924.107862760.42465353660.084495854918850.3610.39%
18830.038483163319806294622.97512892130.46313669980.083092450518860.4011.66%
18840.041273507519815953321.729491460.50441020730.08182528218870.4510.64%
18850.044266174419825729620.913066540.54867638170.080678111718880.5010.34%
18860.047475834219835659820.658191290.5961522160.07963710118890.5710.97%
18870.050918220619845768321.05424467790.64707043660.078690383218900.6411.99%
18880.054610208219855746820.975819920.70168064480.077827724918910.7312.41%
18890.058569895119866046122.068350050.76025053990.077040254518920.8210.83%
18900.062816691619876078522.186600180.82306723150.076320243618930.9110.07%
18910.067371415719886316023.05330482080.89043864720.075660929518941.008.87%
18920.072256394519896405123.3785160.96269504170.075056369218951.119.39%
18930.077495574319906547023.896698661.0401906160.074501320318961.229.34%
18940.083114637419916528823.830082211.12330525340.07399114118971.349.08%
18950.089141128619926578824.01268080341.2124463820.073521707818981.478.51%
18960.095604589719936604624.106671361.30805097170.073089345718991.608.19%
18970.102536704619946711624.497340771.41058767640.072690770219001.758.52%
18980.109971454619956810324.857620291.5205591310.072323037219011.928.72%
18990.117945284819966989525.51158205461.63850441570.071983501319022.108.68%
19000.126497282919977215826.3377191121.76500169860.071669779719032.298.51%
19010.135669370819987358626.8588801781.90067106940.071379721119042.518.69%
19020.145506510119997233326.4014461162.04617757950.071111379419052.737.89%
19030.156056922520007495027.35676799272.2022345020.070862990519062.947.25%
19040.167372326120017482827.3120449242.36960682810.070632952319073.208.24%
19050.179508189120027444327.1718513542.54911501720.070419807619083.498.17%
19060.192524001420037705428.124848922.74163901860.070222228419093.797.90%
19070.206483566620048026029.29487361832.94812258510.07003900319104.117.97%
19080.221455314520058136029.69643.16957789960.06986902419114.467.72%
19090.237512636520068170029.82053.40709053610.069711278319124.817.32%
19100.25473424583.6618247820.069564837519135.207.41%
19110.27320456273.93502934470.069428850119145.607.28%
19120.29301412874.22804347330.069302534519156.047.16%
19130.31426005024.54230352350.069185171919166.497.05%
19140.33704647494.87934999840.069076101319177.007.19%
19150.36148510185.24083510020.068974713919187.506.72%
19160.38769572915.62853082930.068880448719198.066.90%
19170.41580684136.04433767050.068792788219208.757.88%
19180.44595623916.49029390960.068711254919219.518.05%
19190.47829171496.96858562450.0686354076192210.378.28%
19200.51297177727.48155740170.0685648388192311.398.92%
19210.55016642788.03172382960.0684991715192412.408.18%
19220.59005799498.62178182450.0684380569192513.477.93%
19230.6328420279.25462385140.0683811722192614.577.53%
19240.67872825149.93335210280.0683282183192715.837.98%
19250.727941602410.66129370520.0682789184192817.157.72%
19260.780723324111.44201702930.0682330154192918.647.97%
19270.837332152412.27934918160.0681902713193020.127.36%
19280.898045583813.17739476550.0681504652193121.697.24%
19290.963161235814.14055600130.0681133921193223.316.95%
19301.032998305315.17355430660.0680788617193325.006.76%
19311.107899133616.28145344020.0680466973193426.806.72%
19321.188230884817.4696843250.0680167347193528.706.62%
19331.274387345218.74407167020.0679888216193630.676.42%
19341.366790853820.1108625240.0679628162193732.756.35%
19351.465894372821.57675689670.0679385869193834.886.11%
19361.572183707623.14894060440.0679160111193937.116.01%
19371.686179888924.83512049320.0678949752194039.345.67%
19381.808441725926.64356221910.0678753731194141.715.68%
19391.939568546328.58313076550.0678571064194243.945.08%
19402.08020313430.66333389950.0678400836194346.355.20%
19412.231034879932.89436877940.0678242192194449.095.58%
19422.392803161435.28717194080.0678094341194551.885.38%
19432.566300966737.85347290760.0677956544194654.855.41%
19442.752378782440.60585168990.0677828113194758.105.59%
19452.95194876243.5578004520.0677708408194861.775.94%
19463.165989197946.72378964980.0677596835194965.425.58%
19473.395549316550.11933896640.0677492837195069.505.87%
19483.641754421853.76109338820.06773959195174.076.17%
19493.905811411557.66690479970.067730554195278.896.11%
19504.189014693361.85591949290.0677221312195384.106.20%
19514.492752529966.34867202290.0677142796195489.516.04%
19524.818513844771.16718586760.0677069605195595.606.37%
19535.167895519976.33508138750.06770013771956102.126.38%
19545.54261022581.87769161250.06769377731957108.986.29%
19555.944494811887.82218642430.06768784811958115.956.01%
19566.375519319194.19770574340.06768232061959123.586.17%
19576.8377966295101.03550237290.06767716761960131.806.24%
19587.3335928269108.36909519970.06767236371961140.556.23%
19597.8653383048116.23443350450.06766788521962150.026.31%
19608.4356396802124.67007318470.067663711963160.226.37%
19619.0472925711133.71736575590.06765981761964171.266.45%
19629.7032953008143.42066105660.06765618871965182.936.38%
196310.4068635952153.82752465180.06765280541966195.636.49%
196411.161446347164.98897099890.06764965121967209.266.51%
196511.9707425218176.95971352070.06764671061968224.136.64%
196612.8387192903189.7984328110.06764396891969240.106.65%
196713.7696314757203.56806428670.06764141281970257.616.80%
196814.7680424106218.32712577190.06760067691971276.196.73%
196915.8388463064234.25311709190.06798625141972295.646.58%
197016.9872922453251.79550229190.06966917611973317.046.75%
197118.2190099104270.35341726190.06864316771974338.726.40%
197219.5400371833289.94140966920.06755845061975359.255.72%
197320.9568497411311.28057334920.06855282821976381.335.79%
1974332.67564385920.06431210371977404.105.63%
1975353.05146319920.05771345391978427.255.42%
1976375.1016863190.05878465471979451.345.34%
1977397.9919799390.05751445951980474.364.85%
1978421.1078557890.05489300551981496.104.38%
1979445.2157185490.05414872331982516.874.02%
1980468.19084747040.04907214451983537.483.83%
1981489.92033893040.04435311161984558.573.78%
1982510.83340547040.04093911311985579.543.62%
1983531.49159676040.0388683311986601.513.65%
1984552.54584143820.03810406871987623.603.54%
1985573.52166135820.03657371871988646.533.55%
1986595.59001140820.03705292171989670.053.51%
1987617.77661158820.03591362921990693.993.45%
1988640.8299164090.03597413951991717.893.33%
1989664.2084324090.03519755981992741.913.24%
1990688.1051310690.03472826691993765.993.14%
1991711.9352132790.03347226231994790.373.09%
1992735.94789408240.0326282351995815.243.05%MSFSignificance F
1993760.05456544240.03171702721996840.753.03%0.0004493793253.33655783840
1994784.55190621240.03122462721997867.113.04%0.0000017738
1995809.40952650240.03071080771998893.872.99%
1996834.9211085570.03055567981999920.092.85%
1997861.2588276690.03058049252000947.332.88%t StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%
1998888.1177078470.03024247792001974.232.76%43.017458690300.04869495480.05361491270.04869495480.0536149127
1999914.5191539630.028869210720021001.402.71%-15.91654980950-0.0000268762-0.0000206936-0.0000268762-0.0000206936
2000941.87592195580.029044980720031029.522.73%
2001969.18796687980.028180338420041058.902.77%
2002996.35981823380.027271123220051088.502.72%
20031024.48466715380.0274526792
20041053.7795407720.0277998125
20051083.4759407720.0274084536
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P/Q
Q
P/Q
Hubbert Linearization, world
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
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Q
P/Q
Hubbert Linearization, world
0
0
0
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0
0
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0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
0
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0
Q (Gb)
P/Q
World HL
y = 3E-08x2 - 6E-05x + 0.0654R2 = 0.984
-
Peak models world productionBPreservesUSGS(BP + 50%)
Chart2
0.0000883450.150.0000012072
0.000101987519010.0000014828
0.000117642419020.0000018191
0.000135591919030.0000022288
0.000156155119040.0000027274
0.00017969319050.0000033333
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0.000237377119070.0000049603
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0.000312576719090.0000073446
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0.000410284119110.0000108207
0.000469491319120.0000131095
0.00053681319130.0000158625
0.000613297319140.0000191698
0.000700118719150.0000231376
0.000798591719160.0000278918
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0.003639675619280.0002382533
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0.0435319243.650.0076184956
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0.053511391419520.0101307862
0.059257630419530.0116604635
0.065568444719540.0134043453
0.07249332985.840.0153897842
0.080085479319560.0176472317
0.088401996619570.0202105335
0.097504112319580.0231172462
0.10745740719590.0264089754
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0.130202971919610.0343363283
0.143150218119620.0390787534
0.157259067219630.0444206267
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0.189330573811.608078170.0571799852
0.207492367312.617466680.0647529285
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0.353503913119.58799240740.1330305669
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0.496257306322.05022311980.2096792386
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0.941142492621.05424467790.4905753706
1.015863790720.975819920.5425085947
1.095640666722.068350050.5991901108
1.180737538622.186600180.6609670091
1.27142621723.05330482080.7282023246
1.367985576923.3785160.8012747748
1.470701173623.896698660.880578368
1.579864803423.830082210.9665218715
1.695774003624.01268080341.0595281304
1.818731492524.106671361.1600332274
1.949044545724.497340771.2684854744
2.087024309224.857620291.3853442282
2.232985045825.51158205461.5110785222
2.387243315926.3377191121.6461655083
2.550117090426.8588801781.7910887031
2.721924796826.4014461161.9463360356
2.902984297427.35676799272.1123976915
3.093611800927.3120449242.2897637562
3.294120708127.1718513542.4789216548
3.504820392428.124848922.6803533933
3.72601491829.29487361832.8945326052
3.95800169729.933.1219214106
4.20107008893.3629670974
4.45549994593.6180986354
4.7215601063.8877230381
4.99950684184.1722215886
5.28958226554.4719459479
5.59201269944.7872141684
5.90700701515.1183066351
6.23475494935.4654619616
6.57542540225.8288728706
6.9291647276.2086820864
7.29609501756.6049782764
7.67631240257.0177920727
8.06988535557.4470922114
8.47685302957.8927818269
8.89722362598.3546949391
9.33097280648.8325931724
9.77804216059.3261627459
10.23833773559.8350117741
10.71172864210.3586679158
11.198045743910.8965764093
11.697080443511.4480985305
12.208583573212.0125105074
12.732264401812.5890029234
13.26778976813.1766806387
13.814783348613.7745632563
14.372825072314.3815861542
14.941450687914.9966021035
15.52015149415.6183834854
16.108374240416.2456251177
16.70552120616.876947694
17.310950461617.5109018356
17.923976322318.1459727494
18.543869994518.7805854798
19.169860421119.4131107371
19.801135329320.041871278
20.436842480320.6651488101
21.076091123821.2811913842
21.717953656621.8882212355
22.36146748222.4844430261
23.005637070523.0680524394
23.64943621423.6372450714
24.291810471824.1902255579
24.931679799724.7252168762
25.567941355725.2404697544
26.199472472325.734272119
26.825133787426.204958511
27.443772520126.650919398
28.054225881127.0706103103
28.655324603327.4625607277
29.245896578527.8253826477
29.824770585128.1577787625
30.390780090728.4585501805
30.942767111928.7266036256
31.479586115428.9609580557
32.0001079429.1607506424
32.503223723929.3252420632
32.987848814729.4538210587
33.452926646729.5460082169
33.897432563229.6014589511
34.320377566729.6199656457
34.720811975929.6014589511
35.097828972429.5460082169
35.450568017929.4538210587
35.778218123129.3252420632
36.080020952629.1607506424
36.355273747628.9609580557
36.603332051428.7266036256
36.823612223428.4585501805
37.015593726328.1577787625
37.178821175727.8253826477
37.312906140127.4625607277
37.417528680527.0706103103
37.492438622826.650919398
37.537456554526.204958511
37.552474540625.734272119
37.537456554525.2404697544
37.492438622824.7252168762
37.417528680524.1902255579
37.312906140123.6372450714
37.178821175723.0680524394
37.015593726322.4844430261
36.823612223421.8882212355
36.603332051421.2811913842
36.355273747620.6651488101
36.080020952620.041871278
35.778218123119.4131107371
35.450568017918.7805854798
35.097828972418.1459727494
34.720811975917.5109018356
34.320377566716.876947694
33.897432563216.2456251177
33.452926646715.6183834854
32.987848814714.9966021035
32.503223723914.3815861542
32.0001079413.7745632563
31.479586115413.1766806387
30.942767111912.5890029234
30.390780090712.0125105074
29.824770585111.4480985305
29.245896578510.8965764093
28.655324603310.3586679158
28.05422588119.8350117741
27.44377252019.3261627459
26.82513378748.8325931724
26.19947247238.3546949391
25.56794135577.8927818269
24.93167979977.4470922114
24.29181047187.0177920727
23.6494362146.6049782764
23.00563707056.2086820864
22.3614674825.8288728706
21.71795365665.4654619616
21.07609112385.1183066351
20.43684248034.7872141684
19.80113532934.4719459479
19.16986042114.1722215886
18.54386999453.8877230381
17.92397632233.6180986354
17.31095046163.3629670974
16.7055212063.1219214106
16.10837424042.8945326052
15.5201514942.6803533933
14.94145068792.4789216548
14.37282507232.2897637562
13.81478334862.1123976915
13.2677897681.9463360356
12.73226440181.7910887031
12.20858357321.6461655083
11.69708044351.5110785222
11.19804574391.3853442282
10.7117286421.2684854744
10.23833773551.1600332274
9.77804216051.0595281304
9.33097280640.9665218715
8.89722362590.880578368
8.47685302950.8012747748
8.06988535550.7282023246
7.67631240250.6609670091
7.29609501750.5991901108
6.9291647270.5425085947
6.57542540220.4905753706
6.23475494930.443059436
5.90700701510.3996459092
5.59201269940.3600359645
5.28958226550.3239466779
4.99950684180.2911107934
4.7215601060.2612764202
4.45549994590.2342066694
4.20107008890.2096792386
3.9580016970.1874859535
3.7260149180.1674322728
3.50482039240.1493367657
3.29412070810.1330305669
3.09361180090.1183568162
2.90298429740.1051700883
2.72192479680.0933358173
2.55011709040.0827297216
2.38724331590.0732372322
2.23298504580.0647529285
2.08702430920.0571799852
1.94904454570.0504296315
1.81873149250.0444206267
1.69577400360.0390787534
1.57986480340.0343363283
1.47070117360.0301317348
1.36798557690.0264089754
1.2714262170.0231172462
1.18073753860.0202105335
1.09564066670.0176472317
1.01586379070.0153897842
0.94114249260.0134043453
0.87122002330.0116604635
0.80584752920.0101307862
0.7447842320.0087907842
0.68779756310.0076184956
0.63466325740.0065942887
0.58516540740.0057006427
0.5390964810.0049219457
0.49625730630.0042443086
0.45645702480.0036553942
0.41951301690.0031442611
0.38525080160.0027012211
0.35350391310.0023177084
0.32411375660.0019861616
0.2969294460.0016999162
0.2718076250.0014531069
0.24861227510.0012405799
0.22721451130.0010578134
0.20749236730.0009008459
0.18933057380.0007662122
0.17262032940.0006508858
0.15725906720.000552227
0.14315021810.0004679373
0.13020297190.0003960178
0.11833203810.0003347333
0.1074574070.0002825793
0.09750411230.0002382533
0.08840199660.0002006294
0.08008547930.0001687358
0.07249332980.000141735
0.06556844470.0001189061
0.05925763040.0000996296
0.05351139140.0000833738
0.04828372540.0000696832
0.0435319240.0000581679
Year
Billion barrels per year
Penner
Penner estimate of reserves needed
Population in 2050:1.00E+10
Current world energy usage (yearly)4.11E+17BtuCurrent OECD energy usage (yearly)2.32E+17Btu
Petroleum39%1.60E+1742%9.75E+16
Natural gas23%9.46E+1622%5.11E+16
Coal24%9.87E+1620%4.64E+16
Hydroelectric6%2.47E+165%1.16E+16
Nuclear7%2.88E+1610%2.32E+16
Renewables1%4.11E+151%2.32E+15
US total energy usage:9.80E+16Btu
US population:3.00E+08
US present consumption per capita:3.27E+08Btu/person/year
Cut this by 40%:1.96E+08Btu/person/year
Predicted amount consumed by world:1.96E+18Btu/year
(at that rate)1960Quads
Assume linear growth:34417777777777800~8%/yr at start, slowing with time
Exponential growth1933609836309390000~3.5%/yr
US Crude oil reserves22.7Gbbl1.33E+17Btu
OPEC826.14.82E+18
ROW3642.13E+18
US NG reserves187Trillion cu.ft.1.93E+17Btu
OPEC25002.58E+18
ROW28002.88E+18
US coal reservesTons
anthracite59,194.501657446000000000000Btu
bituminous108,842.902612229600000000000
sub-bituminous111,366.702450067400000000000
181,117.103078990700000000000
lignite47,218.40708276000000000000
US share is about 25% of total world share
ROW (non US coal)31521029100000000000Btu
Grand total:5.48E+19Btu
Number of years at high rate:2.79E+01
Hubbert
3.33E+03GbblUSGS Half-width a=50yearsBP =40
production thus far Q=8.00E+02Gbblpeak year=2020Peak2005
2100GbblUSGS Gaussian "Hubbert" fcn.BP Gaussian "Hubbert" fcn.
3326.91338834042099.999138401
18400.0000883450.0000012072
18410.00010198750.0000014828
18420.00011764240.0000018191
18430.00013559190.0000022288
18440.00015615510.0000027274
18450.0001796930.0000033333
18460.00020661350.0000040687
18470.00023737710.0000049603
18480.00027250310.0000060396
18490.00031257670.0000073446
18500.00035825670.0000089203
18510.00041028410.0000108207
18520.00046949130.0000131095
18530.0005368130.0000158625
18540.00061329730.0000191698
18550.00070011870.0000231376
18560.00079859170.0000278918
18570.00091018680.000033581
18580.00103654650.00004038
18590.00117950460.0000484949
18600.00134110590.0000581679
18610.00152362830.0000696832
18620.00172960760.0000833738
18630.0019618630.0000996296
18640.00222352670.0001189061
18650.00251807460.000141735
18660.00284936040.0001687358
18670.00322165290.0002006294
18680.00363967560.0002382533
18690.00410865020.0002825793
18700.00463434350.0003347333
18710.00522311810.0003960178
18720.00588198660.0004679373
18730.00661867070.000552227
18740.00744166460.0006508858
18750.0083603020.0007662122
18760.009384830.0009008459
18770.0105264860.0010578134
18780.01179758150.0012405799
18790.01321159110.0014531069
18800.01478324660.0016999162
18810.01652863870.0019861616
18820.01846532330.0023177084
18830.02061243540.0027012211
18840.02299080960.0031442611
18850.02562310680.0036553942
18860.02853394850.0042443086
18870.03175005810.0049219457
18880.03530040920.0057006427
18890.03921638150.0065942887
0.0818900.0435319240.0076184956
18910.04828372540.0087907842
18920.05351139140.0101307862
18930.05925763040.0116604635
18940.06556844470.0134043453
18950.07249332980.0153897842
18960.08008547930.0176472317
18970.08840199660.0202105335
18980.09750411230.0231172462
18990.1074574070.0264089754
0.1519000.11833203810.0301317348
19010.13020297190.0343363283
19020.14315021810.0390787534
19030.15725906720.0444206267
19040.17262032940.0504296315
19050.18933057380.0571799852
19060.20749236730.0647529285
19070.22721451130.0732372322
19080.24861227510.0827297216
19090.2718076250.0933358173
0.319100.2969294460.1051700883
19110.32411375660.1183568162
19120.35350391310.1330305669
19130.38525080160.1493367657
19140.41951301690.1674322728
19150.45645702480.1874859535
19160.49625730630.2096792386
19170.5390964810.2342066694
19180.58516540740.2612764202
19190.63466325740.2911107934
0.619200.68779756310.3239466779
19210.7447842320.3600359645
19220.80584752920.3996459092
19230.87122002330.443059436
19240.94114249260.4905753706
19251.01586379070.5425085947
19261.09564066670.5991901108
19271.18073753860.6609670091
19281.2714262170.7282023246
19291.36798557690.8012747748
1.519301.47070117360.880578368
19311.57986480340.9665218715
19321.69577400361.0595281304
19331.81873149251.1600332274
19341.94904454571.2684854744
19352.08702430921.3853442282
19362.23298504581.5110785222
19372.38724331591.6461655083
19382.55011709041.7910887031
19392.72192479681.9463360356
2.219402.90298429742.1123976915
19413.09361180092.2897637562
19423.29412070812.4789216548
19433.50482039242.6803533933
19443.7260149182.8945326052
80002.9219453.9580016973.1219214106
19464.20107008893.3629670974
19474.45549994593.6180986354
19484.7215601063.8877230381
19494.99950684184.1722215886
100003.6519505.28958226554.4719459479
19515.59201269944.7872141684
19525.90700701515.1183066351
19536.23475494935.4654619616
19546.57542540225.8288728706
160005.8419556.9291647276.2086820864
19567.29609501756.6049782764
19577.67631240257.0177920727
19588.06988535557.4470922114
19598.47685