peak oil we’ll never “run out” of oil we’ll never “run out” of oil we’re running out...
TRANSCRIPT
Peak OilPeak Oil
we’ll never “run out” of oilwe’ll never “run out” of oil
we’re running out of we’re running out of
cheap, plentiful oilcheap, plentiful oil
oil underpinsoil underpins– industrial developmentindustrial development
– agricultureagriculture
– economicseconomics
– populationpopulation
about ½ way through it…about ½ way through it…
it’s going to declineit’s going to decline
Peak Oil – a theory?Peak Oil – a theory?
98 oil producers98 oil producers
Peak Oil – a theory?Peak Oil – a theory?
Not a theory for these 64 post peak producersNot a theory for these 64 post peak producers
Peak Oil – official numbersPeak Oil – official numbers
EIA - EIA - Energy Information Administration
IEA - International Energy Agency
Peak Oil – what’s it like?Peak Oil – what’s it like?
terminal declineterminal decline
demand destructiondemand destruction
examples: examples:
– 1990s: North Korea1990s: North Korea
– 1990s: Cuba1990s: Cuba
– 2000: UK fuel crisis2000: UK fuel crisis
– Now: Poor countriesNow: Poor countries
Climate Change – the end of Climate Change – the end of the debatethe debate
Warming of the climate Warming of the climate system is unequivocalsystem is unequivocal
Most of the observed Most of the observed increase in globally increase in globally averaged temperatures averaged temperatures since the mid-20th since the mid-20th century is very likely century is very likely (confidence level >90%) (confidence level >90%) due to the observed due to the observed increase in human increase in human greenhouse gas greenhouse gas concentrationsconcentrations
The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states:The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states:
Upsala Glacier, ArgentinaUpsala Glacier, Argentina
Can we respond?Can we respond?
Going up the energy slope, we usedGoing up the energy slope, we used– ingenuity– creativity– adaptability– cooperation
Going back down…– if we’re early enough– if we’re cooperative– the future could be a
whole lot better…
What’s stopping us? (1)What’s stopping us? (1)
Dominant myths of todayDominant myths of today– Things are getting betterThings are getting better– Economic growth is goodEconomic growth is good– We must keep shoppingWe must keep shopping– Technology will solve all our problemsTechnology will solve all our problems– There is no alternativeThere is no alternative– You can’t stop progressYou can’t stop progress– Living standards are risingLiving standards are rising– Humans are selfish and greedy by natureHumans are selfish and greedy by nature– The market will solve itThe market will solve it– We’re all doomed…We’re all doomed…
What’s stopping us? (2)What’s stopping us? (2)
Cognitive Load Theory (fruit salad experiment)Cognitive Load Theory (fruit salad experiment) Short term vs long term thinkingShort term vs long term thinking
– rational vs emotional, neocortex vs mammalian vs reptilianrational vs emotional, neocortex vs mammalian vs reptilian
Belief in authority figuresBelief in authority figures– electrocution experiment - 65% gave lethal doseelectrocution experiment - 65% gave lethal dose– obedient children surviveobedient children survive
Sunk cost, or investment in the presentSunk cost, or investment in the present– ““it’s difficult convincing a person of something when his job it’s difficult convincing a person of something when his job
depends on him not believing it”depends on him not believing it”
OptimismOptimism– an optimistic outlook is neurochemically self-fulfillingan optimistic outlook is neurochemically self-fulfilling
Peak Oil – happening now Peak Oil – happening now (if you’re poor)(if you’re poor)
AsiaAsia– NepalNepal
– PakistanPakistan
– BangladeshBangladesh
– Sri LankaSri Lanka
– PhilippinesPhilippines
– ChinaChina
– IndiaIndia
– VietnamVietnam
AfricaAfrica– UgandaUganda
– ZimbabweZimbabwe
– GhanaGhana
– NigeriaNigeria
– SenegalSenegal
– KenyaKenya
– GambiaGambia
– PhilippinesPhilippines
AmericasAmericas– ArgentinaArgentina
– NicaraguaNicaragua
– ChileChile
– Costa RicaCosta Rica
– Dominican RepublicDominican Republic
Middle EastMiddle East– IraqIraq
– IranIran
Peak Oil – who’s peaked (1)?Peak Oil – who’s peaked (1)?
Top 20 - 85% of all oil extracted worldwide
Peaked Not yet peaked57% of world 27% of world
Russia, United States, Mexico, China, Norway, Canada, Venezuela, United Kingdom, Iraq, Algeria, Libya, Indonesia, Oman
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Nigeria, Iran, United Arab Emirates, Brazil, Kazakhstan
Climate Change – weather Climate Change – weather extremesextremes
Climate Change – moral Climate Change – moral issue or personal interest?issue or personal interest?
Some regions will be more affected than others:Some regions will be more affected than others:– The Arctic (ice sheet loss, ecosystem changes)The Arctic (ice sheet loss, ecosystem changes)– Sub-Saharan Africa (water stress, reduced crops)Sub-Saharan Africa (water stress, reduced crops)– Small islands (coastal erosion, inundation)Small islands (coastal erosion, inundation)– Asian mega-deltas (flooding from sea and rivers)Asian mega-deltas (flooding from sea and rivers)– coastal aquifers will be contaminated by sea watercoastal aquifers will be contaminated by sea water
Some ecosystems are highly vulnerable:Some ecosystems are highly vulnerable:– Coral reefs, marine shell organismsCoral reefs, marine shell organisms– Tundra, boreal forests, mountain and Mediterranean Tundra, boreal forests, mountain and Mediterranean
regionsregions– 20-30% of plant and animal species at risk of extinction20-30% of plant and animal species at risk of extinction
Your town?Your town?
Our choice…Our choice…
We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we want to or not. Far future whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather than better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it. getting engulfed by it.
Peak or Plateau?Peak or Plateau?
Existing fields decline – 4.5%Existing fields decline – 4.5%
= Peak in 2015= Peak in 2015
Peak Oil & Climate ChangePeak Oil & Climate Change
CLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE(a la Stern et al.)(a la Stern et al.)climate engineeringclimate engineeringcarbon capture and carbon capture and
storagestoragetree-based carbon tree-based carbon
offsetsoffsetsinternational international
emissions tradingemissions tradingclimate adaptationclimate adaptationimproved improved
transportation transportation logisticslogistics
nuclear powernuclear power
PLANNED RELOCALISATION
local resiliencecarbon reductionconsume closer to homeproduce closer to homeplay closer to homedecentralised energy
infrastructurethe Great Reskillinglocalised foodenergy descent planslocal medicinal capacitylocal currencies
PEAK OILPEAK OIL(a la Hirsch et al.)(a la Hirsch et al.)coal to liquidscoal to liquidsgas to liquidsgas to liquidsrelaxed drilling relaxed drilling
regulationsregulationsmassively scaled massively scaled
biofuelsbiofuelstar sands and non-tar sands and non-
conventional oilsconventional oilsresource resource
nationalism and nationalism and stockpilingstockpiling
A ‘grass roots’ movement Established June 2008
transport, energy, food, social support, textiles,
health & wellbeing, waste & consumerism,
art & performance.
www.transitionbuxton.co.uk
Film
Food
Food
Plant and seed swaps
Fruit tree planting : Community Orchard @ Fairfield Schools & Burbage
Food
CSA – Community Supported AgricultureAllotments Landshare Forest GardeningBee KeepingSeed Swapping & Plant stallsCommunity OrchardGuerilla gardeningEducation
Transport
• Car pooling• Buxton Bikes• Monsal Trail/Rail Enquiry
Energy
• Insulation seminar
• Curtain lining workshops
• Renewable Energy Seminar
Education
• Schools work – PSHE
• “Transition Tales” with ‘Funny Wonders’ puppet workshop
• Tree-planting - Fairfield
“Visioning”Creating positive mental goals to work towards!
•Visioning workshops
•Public consulting
•Talks
What can the BCA do?
OPTION 1 – DO NOTHINGWait & react to events.
NOT AN OPTION!- BCA already committed to ‘enhancing the environmental & social benefits’ arising from its assets - And has clear environmental policy statement.
What can the BCA do?OPTION 2 – Identify potential Risks of
Peak Oil & Climate Change to BCA:- Pest & disease- Fire - Increase in extreme weather events –
wind, drought
- Invasive species- Pressure for land – population movement? Food?
- Fuelwood foraging
DRAW UP PROTECTIVE MEASURES
What can the BCA do?
OPTION 3 – BE PROACTIVE
Aim to be part of community’s resilience-building
“Vision” - Look forward to what we can do now to assist the next generation
A Vision for BCA?
• Environmental Change = inevitable• need to be adaptable and prepared.
• Social change - 1. reduced fossil fuels -> demand for
affordable fuel : incr. Woodburners2. High Food prices -> demand for
land/local produce3. Demand for Building materials -> timber
A Vision for BCA?1. Fuel : • potential risk to woods from uncontrolled
firewood cutting/foraging
• Currently a high % of sycamore.
• Most UK woodland not ‘Natural’ : highly managed
• ?PLANT NEW WOODS? • ? Coppicing – ecological benefits &
attaches economic value to woodlands.
A Vision for BCA?
2. Food :i. Forest Gardens? ii. Foraging opportunities? –
currants & berries? hazelnuts? Mushrooms?
iii. Allotments? iv. …?
What Next?
We believe the BCA can play an important role in the future of Buxton – big changes ahead- need a long-term strategy- need a sense of URGENCY
Discussion: end this meeting with an Action ! (strategy? Proposal to board? Membership discussion?)