peak pedaling: has portland bicycling reached the top of the logistic curve?

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PEAK PEDDLING: HAS PORTLAND BICYCLING REACHED THE TOP OF THE LOGISTIC CURVE? DECEMBER 6, 2013 ROBERT MCCULLOUGH

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Robert McCullough, McCullough Research

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Page 1: Peak Pedaling: Has Portland Bicycling reached the Top of the Logistic Curve?

PEAK PEDDLING: HAS PORTLAND BICYCLING REACHED THE TOP OF THE LOGISTIC CURVE?

DECEMBER 6, 2013

ROBERT MCCULLOUGH

Page 2: Peak Pedaling: Has Portland Bicycling reached the Top of the Logistic Curve?

PEAK PEDDLING

•  There is increasing evidence that the growth of central city bicycle commuting is leveling off

•  The best data is the Hawthorne Bridge counter – which allows us to reject growth in commuting at 99% significance since August 8, 2012

• Weather/weekend/sunset variables are highly significant

•  The policy implication is that the easy work is over and the hard work – real planning – is just beginning

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