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The Master Algorithm How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine Will Remake Our World Pedro Domingos University of Washington

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Page 1: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

The Master AlgorithmHow the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine Will Remake Our World

Pedro DomingosUniversity of Washington

Page 2: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Machine Learning

Page 3: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Traditional Programming

Machine Learning

ComputerData

AlgorithmOutput

ComputerData

OutputAlgorithm

Page 4: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Traditional Programming

Machine Learning

ComputerData

AlgorithmOutput

MasterAlgorithm

Data

OutputAlgorithm

Page 5: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

The Five Tribes of Machine Learning

Tribe Origins Master Algorithm

Symbolists Logic, philosophy Inverse deduction

Connectionists Neuroscience Backpropagation

Evolutionaries Evolutionary biology Genetic programming

Bayesians Statistics Probabilistic inference

Analogizers Psychology Kernel machines

Page 6: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Symbolists

Tom Mitchell Steve Muggleton Ross Quinlan

Page 7: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Inverse Deduction

Addition Subtraction

2 + 2――― = ?――

2 + ?――― = 4――

Page 8: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Inverse Deduction

Deduction

Socrates is human + Humans are mortal .――――――――――― = ?

Induction

Socrates is human + ?――――――――――― = Socrates is mortal

―――――――――― ――――――――――

Page 9: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Spot the Biologist in this Picture

Page 10: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Connectionists

Yann LeCun Geoff Hinton Yoshua Bengio

Page 11: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

A Neuron

Page 12: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

An Artificial Neuron

Page 13: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Backpropagation

Page 14: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

The Google Cat Network

Page 15: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Evolutionaries

John Koza John Holland Hod Lipson

Page 16: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Genetic Algorithms

Page 17: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Genetic Programming

Page 18: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Evolving Robots

Page 19: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Bayesians

David Heckerman Judea Pearl Michael Jordan

Page 20: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Probabilistic Inference

Page 21: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Probabilistic Inference

Page 22: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Spam Filters

Page 23: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Analogizers

Peter Hart Vladimir Vapnik Douglas Hofstadter

Page 24: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Nearest Neighbor

Page 25: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Kernel Machines

Page 26: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Recommender Systems

Page 27: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

The Big Picture

Tribe Problem Solution

Symbolists Knowledge composition Inverse deduction

Connectionists Credit assignment Backpropagation

Evolutionaries Structure discovery Genetic programming

Bayesians Uncertainty Probabilistic inference

Analogizers Similarity Kernel machines

Page 28: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

The Big Picture

Tribe Problem Solution

Symbolists Knowledge composition Inverse deduction

Connectionists Credit assignment Backpropagation

Evolutionaries Structure discovery Genetic programming

Bayesians Uncertainty Probabilistic inference

Analogizers Similarity Kernel machines

But what we really need isa single algorithm that solves all five!

Page 29: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Putting the Pieces Together

RepresentationProbabilistic logic (e.g., Markov logic networks)Weighted formulas → Distribution over states

EvaluationPosterior probabilityUser-defined objective function

OptimizationFormula discovery: Genetic programming Weight learning: Backpropagation

Page 30: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

Toward a Universal Learner

Much remains to be done . . .We need your ideas

Page 31: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm

What a Universal Learner Will EnableHome Robots

Cancer Cures 360o Recommenders

World Wide Brains

Page 32: Pedro Domingos University of Washington. Traditional Programming Machine Learning Computer Data Algorithm Output Computer Data Output Algorithm